Box-Office Wrap-Up: Feb. 5 – Feb. 7, 2010
COMMENTS
Avatar is dethroned by Dear John?! Blerg.
Wow. That is an ouchie. First up, let's give some love to the bold folks who picked Dear John to win: The Checkspot, Cinejab, Chuck Bartowski, Oscar Smarty, and chris_sc77. Chuck Bartowski even had a $30m call up on Thursday, proof positive that you can't stop the hit NBC show, Chuck. What a way to lose a three month streak. Let's break this thing down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
1. Dear John
It rolled. The Notebook opened at $13m back in 2004, so I'm not sure where the precedent was for this. Could female audiences have been starved for content, and When in Rome wasn't doing the trick? The budget here was $25m which means you can expect a ton more Sparks' content in your future.
Hmmm, Message in a Bottle opened at $16.7m in 1999, once you adjust for inflation you're a little closer to a $30m explanation. Still, this one clearly caught me by surprise.
Result: 32.4 million (My rank: #3, $15.7m off)
2. Avatar
It wasn't a case of Avatar under-performing, it only fell 25 percent. For trivia's sake the film that knocked off Titanic back in April of 1998 was… (drumroll, please) Lost in Space. Remember that one?
Result: 23.6 million (My rank: #1, $.8m off)
Opening a guy focused actioner on Super Bowl Sunday is either crazy insane or insane crazy. I'm not sure which one I'm leaning towards just yet.
Result: 8.1 million (My rank: #2, $9.9m off)
Back on track! Sorry, that's my lame version of Finke's TOLDJA, which is of course also completely lame.
Standing at $30m on a budget of $80m isn't so bueno.
Result: 7.0 million (My rank: #4, $1m off)
I'm getting on a little roll here. Tooth Fairy needs around $80m in revenue, somehow, someway, to start feeling financially healthy. It could happen, but it will probably come down to the DVD treatment.
Result: 6.5 million (My rank: #5, $1m off)
6. When in Rome
No production budget has been released/rumored/estimated. Anyone have any ideas out there? Any friends who worked on the set?
Result: 5.5 million (My rank: #6, $0.9m off)
I don't have much to say on this title except for: Saints 31 Colts 27. I'm calling that four hours before the game starts, and in a way both this film and that pick are all about faith.
Result: 4.8 million (My rank: #7, $0.5m off)
8. Crazy Heart
Hey now, there's another surprising result. I couldn't be happier for Jeff Bridges, I'm a long-time fan. Glad to see people choosing an interesting film for an afternoon out.
Result: 3.6 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
9. Legion
Here's a question for the group: Do you think movie-related toys sell as well as they did back in the '80s? Do kids want to buy Transformers after they see the film? I would think that the faster life-cycle for movies is hurting the toy industry, but that's just a theory. Anyone else have an opinion on that one?
Result: 3.4 million (My rank: #9, $0.3m off)
10. Sherlock Holmes
Sherlock Holmes spends its seventh straight weekend in the top ten, which would have been pretty impressive if not for Avatar's massive run.
Result: 2.6 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
How say you? Did you catch Dear John, and was it worth seeing? Can we expect more out of this Nicholas Sparks fellow? Is Channing Tatum now a box-office draw? So many questions, so little time, but I look forward to your comments. Someone has to make sense of this weird weekend.
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Never underestimate female audiences
avatar will not be #1 next weekend also.
It will be #5[depending on dear john's hold) or 4 next weekend.
it will be beaten by 3 movies.
1. The Wolfman-$59- it looks awesome and is based on the old movie
2. Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Theif-$47-this looks OK. There are a lot of fans of the book. It will for sure not be as big as Harry Potter.
3. Valentines Day-$35- i smell a romantic blockbuster. And its got so many famous stars.
What's wrong with Toldja – she's right ALL the time about things no one knows about
From Paris with Love: I have to think now that John Travolta has dropped to second tier status among actors. I gave him a first tier status PTA, gave the film zero for brining people in, and subtracted for the Superbowl, and was still too high. But when I plug in a second tier actor status PTA, the numbers closely predict this weekends gross.
Avatar: Really close to another 11.2% drop, adjusted for the Superbowl. We will have to see the actuals.
Dear John: I liked New Moon, but I actually liked this movie better. It turned out to have a surprising amount of depth; ask yourself why 'Savannah' was attracted to 'John', for instance. The Psychology actually pencils out. If quality is related to legs, then Dear John should have more than the usual 3X Sparks opening gross. We will see if girl fandom frontloads this movie. One problem for Dear John is it seems they went out of their way to make the film interesting to guys with lots of U.S. military screentime, but how are guys supposed to know this? Are the girls going to go home and tell their brothers that they really enjoyed the realistic depiction of Special Forces troops? Will dwelling on the military turn off girls, or will they be interested in this look inside the guys locker room, so to speak? There are still unknowns about this movie, but the opening bodes well for the next Nicholas Sparks film that comes out March 31.
@Laremy, adjusting for inflation verses Message in a Bottle just shows that Nicholas Sparks films were on a downward trend before what I call a reboot of the series towards younger audiences.
@mfan: It could go either way in my opinion. Maybe the women who saw "John" won't be as starved for a romantic drama when "The Last Song" opens. Or maybe it's just the opposite and "Last Song" will be huge as well. Those could be apples and oranges though. With "Song", they're obviously trying to market to the Miley fans (yourself included I'm sure). "Dear John" took a different route and focused on the love story as well as offered glimpses at the military theme, which probably didn't make boys come out in droves, but it didn't hurt it either.
Who knows, it's up in the air right now. I'm surprised that "John" did so well (about 30% better than I gave it credit for). I'm just glad that "Avatar" isn't number one anymore. I was kinda getting sick of the same old stories about the film owning the competition.
Also, next week, I still don't see any huge openings. "Percy Jackson' still smells like "Eragon" to me, and I'm predicting an opening on par with that disasterous film- mid 20s range, which is not bad, but they can kiss that franchise goodbye. "Valentine's Day" should do about as well as "He's Just not that Into You", so let's say somewhere in the high-20s low 30s. "Wolfman" is the one film I can see bombing, although in my opinion, it looks pretty cool. Werewolf movies often disappoint (we'll skip the inevitable "Twilight" argument). Even the "Underworld" films focused more on the action and the vampire aspects than the werewolf element.
With that said, I'm going to be bearish and say that it'll make around $22 million for the 3-day.
1.Valentine's Day-$34.8 (N/A)-hey teens! Coming out tonight?
2.The Lightning Thief-$30.2 (N/A)-or they could come to this…
3.The Wolfman-$25.6 (N/A)-since when has an R-rating helped any film?
4.Dear John-$19.3* (-40%)-dear box office, will this suffer next weekend?
5.Avatar-$15.7 (-33%)-it has FINALLY lost its streak!!
6.From Paris With Love-$4.2 (-48%)-apparently people don't care about awards bait.
7.Edge of Darkness-$3.5 (-50%)-here we go again…
8.When in Rome-$3 (-45%)-and again…
9.Crazy Heart-$2.7 (-27%)-wait for it (it's picking up steam!)…
10.The Book of Eli-$2.5 (-48%)-and again (but it's reaching $100 million).
—
14.The Lovely Bones-$1.5 (-34%)-I think it's time to lose theaters.
Quick Summary:
That was a huge blow to Avatar. But no matter.
Edge of Darkness dropped the most. Poor Mel Gibson.
I'm pleased that people are checking out Crazy Heart, though it seems that it is the only film getting an awards season bump.
President's Day weekend is next, with an ensemble rom-com, a fantasy-horror flick, and a fantasy novel adaptation. Which will you choose?
Hmm should I consider this an insult to Avatar the same week the "Oscar bump" was supposed to take effect?
@Vince (Not Vance): The scuttlebut for Percy is about $27 million right now. I'm glad I'm not the only one who is a little skeptical. The main actors don't seem very appealing to me. They don't seem to have been chosen for their looks or their resumes. Maybe they know the producers?
Ha! Dear John beat Avatar. That's funny. I was expecting The Wolfman or Shutter Island to dethrone it in the coming weeks.
The Wolfman will easily dethrone Dear John next weekend. Avatar might end up 5th?
@m1:
the r rating didn't hurt The Hangover
I really thought AVATAR might have had a good chance to do $750+ mil by the end of its run, but not after this weekend.
Next weekend it'll come in 5th after THE WOLFMAN, PERCY JACKSON, VALENTINE'S DAY, and DEAR JOHN, and then 2 weeks after, ALICE IN WONDERLAND will get all the 3D screens, and then 2 weeks after, HOW TO TRAIN A DRAGON, and then a week after, CLASH OF THE TITANS.
Best case scenario, even with the so-called Academy Award Show bump: $725 mil.
Worldwide: $2.650 bil.
Dear John was clearly a case of "you dragged me to Avatar, now we're going to see something I want to see." Luckily that was not the case for me as my lady friend is waiting for Alice in Wonderland.
@Steven Kar: I still think it does, it has a decent shot at crossing it, depends how well it does in the next two weeks. I have a feeling it won't collapse into "normal" trends, but there's a strong chance it might.
Well, it looks like the Saints have it!
@therapp: According to Sony, 84 percent of the opening weekend audience for Dear John was female, while 64 percent was under the age of 21. I could only catch a saturday morning matinee, but when I went, the male representation was only me, one father with his daughter, and two gay guys. The guys look to be a no show, which only makes sense. Romantic comedies can be considered date movies by some, but "tearjerkers" are not. This was not really much of a tearjerker movie, though. Except when U.S military forces were being shot at. Just kidding. :)
@tyrone biggums: The Hangover wasn't delayed to the next year, now, was it?
@tyrone biggums: Also, The Hangover was SO last summer. The Book of Eli, Daybreakers, and Edge of Darkness, not to mention It's Complicated and Legion, have all failed to secure that top spot from Avatar.
@m1:
Eh, the R-rating is a bit of a different beast. It usually helps R-rated, bawdy comedies a la "The Hangover", because it gives it an extra risque flair, like it's too naughty to see on TV or DVD. With some horror movies, the R-rating only hinders it. "When a Stranger Calls" is watered down junk, but the PG-13 rating let the audience, mostly teenage girls, get in on the action.
"The Wolfman" however could be helped by the R-rating, at least among fanboys. We now know that it won't be watered down or sanitized, it'll be gory and relentless. That could attract the action-horror crowd that propelled the "Resident Evil" and "Underworld" movies. I'm still not exactly feeling it however, just because of the genre & the bad buzz from the reshoots & release date shifting.
Also, congrats Saints!
Dear laremy, you haven't adjusted the icon of box office wrap up in homepage, it is still Titanic with Avatar on no 2….
Next week surely either Percy Jackson or Wolfman will be on 1st spot (but I have a hunch percy will took it since it's more family friendly…
Regards from Indonesia
I've said it before, and I'll say it again… never underestimate the power of teenage girls.
I'm picking Valentines Day for the win next week.
I'm feeling a mega-bomb coming from The Wolfman. I'm probably the target demo (18-25 male) and I think it looks awful. I will be waiting for Shutter Island until I make my next trip to the multiplex.
P.S. (and off-topic) Geaux Saints!
@Just Myself: Who Dat Say Goin Beat Dem Saints?!?!
Its a nice surprise for Dear John to pass up Avatar, Especially considering how many ppl didnt think it would do anything. Im nothing but sure that Avatars numbers will continue to drastically drop after this weekend. There are to many new movies coming out, and with next weekend being valentines day, i believe that lovers are going to want to watch something a little more romantic than Avatar. I see Dear John, and Valentines Day doing quite well next weekend.
@Vince (Not Vance): O.K. I will admit it. My whole interest in Dear John has to do with The Last Song. If there truly is an increased mojo for Nicholas Sparks films, it is going to give Clash of the Titans a whole new meaning!
Also notice how "Precious" and "An Education" failed to manage a proper Oscar bump. I'm thinking that having 10 BP nominees meant that none of them got a large bump, even if only 6 of them are still in theaters.
Wow Laremy, I was talking about movie-related toys the other day with my buddy. We agreed that when we were younger, toys from movies were so much more cooler. I remember Terminator 2 toys where the plastic peeled off to reveal the robot skeleton underneath. We all thought that was the coolest thing.
Movie-related toys suck big time today. Avatar's line is a joke. I do find the toys are rushed out cuz they know they will be in the bargain bins 3 months from the release date.
A lot of movie related toys cast from similar molds (last action hero and demolition man toys come to mind from my youth) but I gotta agree that movie related toys are terrible these days.
Unless of course "valentines day" has a toy line forthcoming.
1. Percy Jackson and the Olympians (Went to see Rick Riordan read last year. Got a special pass so I could have my books signed without waiting in a line. There were over 600 people, and I live in a pretty small town.)
2. The Wolfman
3. Avatar
4. Valentines Day
5. Dear John- God, I HATE chick flicks
6. From Paris With Love
8. Edge of Darkness
9. Tooth Fairy
10. The Book of Eli
Avatar brings in $22,850,881, falling short of Titanic in their eighth weekend by $176,957. The increased advertising/notoriety of being an Oscar frontrunner failed to help Avatar as the film's awareness among the public is probably already at saturation levels. Avatar fell only 55.4% on Superbowl Sunday (Titanic 54%), for an adjusted 16.5% weekend drop. If next weekend sees a another 16.5% drop from what it might have made without Superbowl Sunday, it will bring in another $21.8 million.
Win, win for Miley fans whether Miley's Hannah Montana concert stayed number one, or Dear John showed more mojo that might transfer to The Last Song. Dear John falls short by $649,220.
Actuals confirm that Edge of Darkness had the largest percentage drop (-60.2%) of a top ten film. For whatever reason.
Also, Dear John fell 66.1% on Superbowl Sunday, not because it was frontloaded for the weekend, but confirming that most films, regardless of genre, fall around two thirds on that day.
mfan your a dude who's obsessed with miley cyrus? Can you explain?
@jfelt08: I've tried to be a fan of other artists before, and they have always let me down. Rickki Lee Jones only tours when she needs more alchohol money, and won't cover other peoples material, even though she has the voice of an angel. Pat Benatar will sometimes make political remarks at her concerts when we are there to have a good time. Other artists have failed to keep coming up with good material, like Lita Ford. Besides, Miley is the most fun artist I have ever seen. So many artist try to be "cool", or even "awesome". Miley seems to easily achieve those things on the way to her destination of fun. She has a good heart, which is important to me. I also admire success. In the last three years Miley has had three successful arena tours (one as an opening act), six major CD releases, five platinum or multiplatinum with the sixth well on it's way (gold right now). Made three moveis, two of which have opened at number one, and the third opening March 31, 2010. Had a bestselling book. Given, by my count, five million dollars to charity that she could have put into her own pocket, and helped to raise more as part of group efforts. All kinds of side projects. A hit television show. For a while, a hit Youtube show, etc. Miley has had the best three years, overall, of ANY artist out there. Some may be more successful in music; some may be more successful in movies; some may be more successful in television; some may have given more to charity. But NO ONE but Miley has been successful (!) at all of these endeavors. It's really been impressive to watch, as I've never seen anything like it. I could go on, and on, but she is popluar for a reason, and you will be seeing more of her in the future. FYI : in the future she is going into rock/alternative with some ballads, musically. She will also continue to do movies. I don't think she'll do television again, unless she is able to produce the show. The main reason I've been following, and trying to figure out how to predict the box office, is to be able to somewhat predict how her movies will do at the box office. Thanks for your question.
Watching Miley's overall success has been a lot like watching Avatar surpass everything at the box office. Although people surpass her in individual areas.
@mfan: I understand you're interest now. For me, I can't stand her but her success is unparalleled. I just am not a fan of a. her music and b. her movies but she could probably care less because she makes a whole lot more than I do.