Box-Office Wrap-Up: Feb. 26 – Feb. 28, 2010
Scorsese grabs crown number two as Cop Out falters.
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| Alert commenter JM joined in (although he rounded off) my prediction so we'll take the glory. A 46 percent drop means word of mouth has been fairly good. The major issue with Shutter Island is that $80m production budget. Does anyone have a bead on how well the film will do internationally? I'd say $120m domestically, which means they'll need another $80m or so internationally to feel good about a profit once DVD hits. Nick, Dan Tralder, M1, and JM all had nice first place calls here. Too bad it was too late to save me, eh guys? Result: $22.2 million My rank: I picked it to finish #2 and my prediction of $22.585 million was $0.385m off for a percentage error of 1.73%. | |
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My rank: I picked it to finish #1 with $23.625 million, which is $5.125m off for a 27.7% variance.
Anyone out there see it? I'm seeing it tonight so I can talk about it on Monday's Slashfilmcast. Tune in online if you're free on Monday around 7:30pm est.
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $14.856 million, which is $1.644m off for a 9.96% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $11.59 million, which is $2.41m off for a 17.21% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $8.158 million, which is $1.642m off for a 16.76% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $7.565 million, which is $1.935m off for a 20.37% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $3.851 million, which is $1.149m off for a 22.98% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $4.434 million, which is $0.311m off for a 7.54% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $2.911 million, which is $0.539m off for a 15.62% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $2.5 million, which is $0.04m off for a 1.57% variance.
How say you? Any surprises on this slow box office weekend? Have a number on Alice in Wonderland already? I've seen predictions of $200m in total domestic box-office out there, which feels high to me, because that would indicate a $70m opening weekend. Only one thing is for sure: Shutter Island won't be winning for a third time.
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Good weekend, pretty much no disappointing numbers (I hated The Wolfman and don't care about Cop Out), though A Prophet could have done better in limited release. Love that $20k per theater from Ghost Writer, here's hoping Summit won't kill it like The Hurt Locker. I think Shutter Island is likely to make $130+ million (and as much likely to make $133, and outgross The Departed for that matter), VD is going to be very lucky to make it to $120 and Percy – to $100, and $760+ million for Avatar is possible, but it's all going to depend on how hard it drops the next weekend.
As far as Alice goes, I think $50 million is a given, $60 is a good possibility and $70 is possible, but highly unlikely. It's going to depend on the theater count at the end, and on how high the PTA is gonna be. I'd say anywhere from $14k to $18k. We'll see.
I wonder if the "official" numbers drop a little, I am expecting a big TV rating for US-Canada hockey game today.
27.6 Million viewers from 3-6ET! For a hockey game!
Shutter Island doesn't need another 80 million! Who told you that box office works that way? They already covered the expenses of the movie and considering that the studio got money from distributors across the world in bidding wars then they are doing great.
It will finish in 100 million domestically(maybe more), and another 120(maybe more) internationally. That's 220 million for a period/drama/thriller. It might be the first to make so much. The goal of paramount was to take those two weekend 1st spot. Now the word of mouth has spread overseas and it will do better there. Also they will have strong DVD sales since the movie is successful so far. Studios struggle for the 1st spot.
But the box office does work that way. The rule of thumb is that you need to double your budget in order to start making a profit (and for other film, you might need to triple that starting budget to start feeling good about the film). Considering that "Shutter Island" cost about $80 million to make, it needs at the very least $160 million in ticket sales before they hit the black.
You mean worldwide don't you?
Coz if you are saying domestically it needs to make 160 million then boy oh boy you don't know anything about boxoffice.
Yeah I meant worldwide. I have a habit of typing and pressing SUBMIT COMMENT before actually finishing my thoughts.
The number I see is usually anywhere from 2.5 to 3x the budget needed to make a profit. This is because marketing isn't factored into the production budget.
To make things even more confusing, each studio cuts different deals with each theater chain. So Regal Cinemas might get 45% of week one box office of Shutter Island while Cinemark gets 48%. There aren't any rules, it's all contract negotiation.
The Crazies was amazing. I was so impressed with the film. Did not know what to think walking in but I walked out very pleased.
Shutter Island is also very good. Followed Dennis Lehan'es novel very closely.
I refuse to see Cop Out. No desire to see a film like that.
Good luck on Slashfilm tomorrow.
Thanks Brian. It's always a fun three hours.
Really happy for Shutter Island, good movies deserve all the success possible.
According to BOM, Fast and Furious holds the record for the biggest open weekend for a Spring release ($70.9 million).
I'm not sure if Alice and Mad Hatter (Mia Wasikowska and Johnny Depp) can challenge Dom and Brian (Vin Diesel and Paul Walker).
I'm uncertain about Alice in Wonderland breaking Fast and Furious' Spring record.
I think it could very much challenge it. The film is the first big movie for family audiences, plus the Hot Topic/Twilight crowd are going to be all over this.
"Charlie and the Chocolate Factory", when adjusting for ticket inflation, sold about $67 million opening weekend. Considering that this film is based on more popular source material and factor in the higher prices for 3D showings, and it could easily hit $70 million.
It'll be damn close however.
One thing Wonderland may have in it's favour is that reviews have so far been more favourable than those of Fast and Furious.
Good presentation. My unadjusted starting point for a weekend estimate for Alice is $68 million. I don't get what you are saying about the teen girl thing, though. It will be very interesting to see the results of a movie that manages to be both broadly appealing, and quirky at the same time.
Why would the Hot Topic/Twilight crowd go all over this?
AVATAR has reached $2.551 billion WW.
So what do you think? A final gross of 2.8 billion?
Yea I agree w/ Vince (Not Vance)
Alice in Wonderland has- IMAX 3D, 3D, and 2D. If Charlie and the Chocolate Factory opened at 57 mil- Alice should come in around there. Since, there hasn't been many kid movies out lately and the hype of Alice is high- I see it doing 62 mil. AND I expect it to hold on since the next children's movie is Diary of a Whimpy Kid two weeks later- which it should loose lots of its money too since it has more hype than that and then a week later How to Train Your Dragon which it will loose money due to its loss of IMAX and 3D. But then its spring break. I expect Alice to do very well.
What about the fanboys? Wonderland lacks the fanboy appeal.
It would be nice to see Alice open somewhere in the 50-55 million dollar range. Shutter Island also deserves to continue earning money because it is a decent film. Will next week be the week Avatar actually drops? Won't it start loosing 3D screens to Alice?
In theory that should be the case.
Let's be realistic; ALICE will do $77M next weekend.
Make it $75M for Alice for me.
I LOVED The Crazies. Best horror remake since Dawn of the Dead and my favorite horror film in many, many years.
1. Alice in Wonderland – 52M
2. Brooklyn's Finest – 19M
3. Shutter Island – 16M
4. Cop Out – 11M
5. Avatar – 10.5M
6. The Crazies – 9M
7. Valentine's Day – 5.5M
8. Dear John – 3.5M
9. Crazy Heart – 2.5M
10. The Ghost Writer – 1M
Mostly guesses. Also I'm not sure if Ghost Writer will be a wide enough release to justify that number.
Next weekend:
1.Alice in Wonderland-$27.5 (N/A)-Oscar weekend= better hold in 2nd weekend.
2.Shutter Island-$18.3 (-18%)-will crack $100 million.
3.Brooklyn's Finest-$10.2 (N/A)-not enough theaters.
4.Cop Out-$8.1 (-57%)-EASILY the biggest dropper next week.
5.The Crazies-$8* (-51%)-good word of mouth COULD save it.
6.Avatar-$7.5 (-46%)-AIW is opening in its demo and an Oscar bounce is impossible. Don't be surprised to see it plummet.
7.Valentine's Day-$6.3 (-34%)-there you have it: first hit of the year.
8.The Lightning Thief-$5.9 (-40%)-there might be sequel depending on weekday holds.
9.Dear John-$4.8 (0.04%)-like I said, beating Avatar was victory enough.
10.The Wolfman-$3.1 (-24%)-lost interest.
Wait, so you're saying that Alice in Wonderland will somehow make sub-$30 million?
My reasoning as to why "Valentine's Day" only dropped 43% this weekend: Valentine's Day.
The box office gets a tremendous spike on Valentine's Day, whether it falls on a weekend or a weekday. And since it fell on a Sunday this time around, most movies got a Sunday rise instead of a Sunday drop. "Valentine's Day" got the biggest rise, one of 27.6%. As such, when its Saturday-to-Sunday drop was -50% the following weekend, it really wrecked havoc on its 2nd weekend drop. Had Valentine's Day been released on a normal weekend, its 2nd weekend drop would have probably been around 57.5-60%.
What I'm trying to say is that its -43% drop is normal. Its -70% drop for its 2nd weekend was abnormal and inflated by the Valentine's Day combined with President's Day weekend.
I think you're right. Well put.
I think people are taking the reviews for CO a little too seriously. I've been going to Twitter over the weekend just see what the general reaction to CO was and to my surprise alot of people liked it. I think it's just one of those movies that the general masses will digg alot more than a bunch of stiff suits. And yes I say that without even seeing the movie.
:Predictons For Next Week:
1.Alice – $64.8M
2.Shutter – $15.7M
3.Brooklyn – $9.8M
4.Cop Out – $8.6M
5.Crazies – $8.5M
This is the argument that sort of turns me into a lunatic. Cop Out isn't a good movie, and we shouldn't reward mediocrity. The budget on the film was $27m. You don't think thousands of filmmakers out there would kill for a budget like that? When we make excuses for sub-par work all we do is create an environment for more sub-par work. It's a marketing trick, the studios have spent billions of dollars to convince you that your time and money aren't important. But they are.
And yes, I say that having seen the movie.
I have not yet seen Cop Out… I'm looking forward to it, as the majority of the people I've talked to who have seen it, say it's really funny… I'm going into it expecting just to have fun and laugh… not hoping it will reinvent the buddy cop comedy… I'm glad it did fairly well this weekend. Some movies you just got to have fun with and I think thats what Cop Out is all about… Thats the reason I'm able to enjoy flicks that have alot of flaw, Like say Legion, Not that great of movie, but a fun one… just can't some movies to seriously
The people selling you the movie take it very seriously. In fact, they make a living do it. They are professionals. Thus, we hold them to a very high standard.
I get that, I really do. And in the case of Cop Out, I think that the marketing and the Kevin Smith fans actually helped let have a decent opening weekend… as far as poor word of mouth goes, I haven't heard anyone… other than movie websites… say it's a bad film. I ended up seeing it last night after I got off work and I enjoyed it. Was it the best made film, not at all, but I could see the actors having fun with it… even Bruce Willis, who some critics have said they think he was sleepwalking through the role. Kevin Smith said one of the reason he decided to make the movie was because it's the type of film his dad would've liked… And whats wrong with that? I get annoyed at times when I can't talk about great films to people who are just casual movie fans (the majority of the people I work with and also the group that Cop Out was, I think, aimed at)… So the way I've come to enjoy both great, well made, soon to be classic films and "made for the masses" films is just have fun with the latter category and not scrutinize every portion of it… I'll leave that for movies in the former category… In short I think some movies just need to be taken at face value and enjoyed because it's a good way to kill a couple hours…
I'm curious to know not just theater counts for next weekend, but screen counts broken out for IMAX 3D, 3D and 2D for Alice and Avatar. Avatar could finally fall hard if it loses all the IMAX and most of the other 3D screens.
"Only three films have had that sort of streak in the past twenty years"
Come on Laremy, besides Titanic what else had that sort of streak? Inquiring minds want to know.
Consecutive weeks in top 5:
E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial 27 weeks $359,197,037 6/11/82
Tootsie 21 weeks $177,200,000 12/17/82
An Officer and a Gentleman 20 weeks $129,795,554 7/30/82
Titanic Par. 19 weeks $600,788,188 12/19/97
Ghost Par. 19 weeks $217,631,306 7/13/90
Back to the Future 18 $210,609,762 7/03/85
Ghostbusters 17 weeks $229,242,989 6/08/84
Home Alone 16 weeks $285,761,243 11/16/90
Beverly Hills Cop 15 weeks $234,760,478 12/05/84
Three Men and a Baby 15 weeks $167,780,960 11/25/87
Thanks for satiating the inquiring minds! :)
As for how the "Shutter Island" will do internationally… I suppose it's gonna be pretty good, at least. In Poland the movie has been recieving a lot of advertisement for some time now, and it's not even out in cinemas till late March. Also, Scorsese and DiCaprio both seem to be more popular in Europe than in the States. I think "Shutter Island" is gonna be more of an earner than "Aviator" was.
I saw The Crazies today.
And yes it was really really good in my opinion.
Very very exciting. And thrilling scenarios.
And had some decent acting.
Very well directed by Breck Eisner.
I think Alice will be huge!
@Laremy Legel: I picked Crazy Heart to Finish at #9 with a haul of $2.7 million which was only off by 0.2 million; however, I guess you placing it correctly at #10 trumps that. Well played my friend.
I'm embarrassed that I finally stopped believing in the staying power of Avatar – $14.0 millon? Are you kidding me? Wow….now if only Cameron can find a way to nick that Best Picture Oscar out of his wife's (presumeably) hands.
As for Alice In Wonderland? I think it's gonna score big at the box office. I think we'll see returns in the $90-$125 range.
I've been looking at Charlie and the Chocolate Factory for some sort of precedent, but doesn't it seem like this won't bring in a huge family dollar?
I'd rather Quentin Tarantino win than James Cameron.
@Matt B.: Yeah, I went over to http://www.imax.com and not surprisingly, a lot of IMAX theaters are dropping Avatar in favor of Alice…at least in the South and Southeast. If the East and West Coast go down the rabbit hole, Avatar is gonna lose some megabucks. Still, even with the standard 3D theaters, Avatar will be able to earn a respectable $4-7 million.