Box-Office Wrap-Up: Feb. 19 – Feb. 21, 2010
COMMENTS
'Shutter' scores #1... are you surprised?
First off, Laremy is at the Olympics this weekend so I am taking over Box-Office Wrap-Up duties. Secondly, Laremy performed admirably this week by placing eight of the top ten accurately and had Crazy Heart and From Paris with Love switched places it would have been ten-for-ten. Let's take a look at how things shaped out.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks In A Row
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| Laremy was already upset about this pick on Friday after he made his $35.5 million prediction off the understanding Shutter Island was going to be in 2,500 theaters according to Box-Office Mojo. By the end of the day those numbers were updated to 2,991 theaters, which I would say gives good reason as to why he came up just under $5 million shy of the actual total. Result: $40.2 million Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #1 and his prediction of $35.5 million was $4.7m off for a percentage error of percentage error of 11.69%. | |
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"Oscar Smarty" just wrote on my Friday estimates article, "So what VALENTINES DAY dropped hugely. It still is a huge success for that movie." Monetarily that's an accurate statement as its reported worldwide earnings are now up to $122 million. However, if I made a film that hit the $122 million mark and held a 17% rating at RottenTomatoes I'm not sure how high I would hold my head.
Result: $17.1 million
Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #2 with $26.6 million, which is $9.5m off for a percentage error of 55.56%.
Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #2 with $26.6 million, which is $9.5m off for a percentage error of 55.56%.
3. Avatar
A lot has been said about Avatar already… so I really have nothing more to add other than to point out it is now over $2.4 billion worldwide… which is a lot of money.
Result: $16.1 million
Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #3 with $17.7 million, which is $1.6m off for a percentage error of 9.94%.
Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #3 with $17.7 million, which is $1.6m off for a percentage error of 9.94%.
I wonder how this film will do internationally. Fox's Eragon did poorly domestically and then earned an additional $174 in foreign dollars only to never see a sequel. Is the same thing likely to happen here?
Result: $15.3 million
Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #4 with $17.4 million, which is $2.1m off for a percentage error of 13.73%.
Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #4 with $17.4 million, which is $2.1m off for a percentage error of 13.73%.
5. The Wolfman
I don't see a sequel here, but Howard Stern's recommendation they forget about reality and go back to the old school idea of having the Wolfman take on unexpected foes sounds great. His suggestions included Wolfman vs. Spider-Man and Wolfman vs. Mike Tyson, the latter of which has to be a $100 million idea if you ask me and I bet Tyson would do it.
Result: $9.8 million
Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #5 with $13.8 million, which is $4m off for a percentage error of 40.82%.
Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #5 with $13.8 million, which is $4m off for a percentage error of 40.82%.
6. Dear John
I have to assume Summit is hoping their Letters to Juliet performs similar to Dear John and I'm sure Disney is praying for similar returns with The Last Song. However, while both of those will most likely be equally schmaltzy neither has the Channing Tatum factor, which, as I understand it, is quite a big deal for the ladies.
Result: $7.3 million
Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #6 with $9.1 million, which is $1.8m off for a percentage error of 24.66%.
Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #6 with $9.1 million, which is $1.8m off for a percentage error of 24.66%.
After Planet 51, this was the second film in a row from The Rock that I skipped and Race to Witch Mountain I wish I'd skipped. However, Faster sounds like it could be pretty good.
Result: $4.5 million
Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #7 with $4.7 million, which is $0.2m off for a percentage error of 4.44%.
Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #7 with $4.7 million, which is $0.2m off for a percentage error of 4.44%.
8. Crazy Heart
From out of the blue this one has become the weekly fan favorite and is now up to $21 million and on its way to, I would say, two Oscars (song and actor). Kudos.
Result: $3 million
Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #9 with $3.25 million, which is $0.25m off for a percentage error of 8.33%.
Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #9 with $3.25 million, which is $0.25m off for a percentage error of 8.33%.
I enjoyed this film and found it to be a lot of fun. However, it appears it won't be looked at as a box-office success with a reported $51 million budget and only $21 million at the box-office to date. Too bad.
Result: $2.5 million
Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #8 with $3.3 million, which is $0.8m off for a percentage error of 32%.
Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #8 with $3.3 million, which is $0.8m off for a percentage error of 32%.
10. Edge of Darkness
Nothing to say here at the end other than if you didn't like my version of the wrap-up Laremy will be back next week.
Result: $2.2 million
Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #10 with $2.9 million, which is $0.7m off for a percentage error of 31.82%.
Laremy's rank: He picked it to finish #10 with $2.9 million, which is $0.7m off for a percentage error of 31.82%.
So there it is, weigh in with your thoughts below. This week's most accurate predictor of the top spot was "chris_sc77" with a $40.7 million prediction for Shutter Island, but many of you were way below that, even some calls for $20 million. Is Shutter's performance that much of a surprise?
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i saw Crazy Heart yesterday and was sort of impressed by its turn out – granted about 90% of the audience was over 50 so it was difficult to guage how much the audience took to Bridge's peformance, but i would think fox has to be happy with how this is performing considering its tripled its budget
I am very happy for Shutter Island, it's a fantastic movie and I'm glad it exceeded monetary expectations for the opening weekend.
I'm leaving in 5 minutes to see Shutter Island. I'll get back to you.
If you're comparing Percy Jackson to Eragon, the former comes off in a much more favorable light. Percy Jackson cost less ($95mil vs. $100mil), opened larger ($31.2mil vs. $23.2mil), and is holding better (-51.0% its 2nd weekend vs. -69.9%). Eragon barely managed $75mil in the U.S.; Percy Jackson will likely reach $100mil. And it'll probably make as much as Eragon did overseas, if not more. Also, its reviews are decidedly better (though that's not saying much!).
So I wouldn't count out a Percy Jackson sequel just yet… though, on the other hand, I'm not holding for one.
Yes. Eragon was horrible. There was never any point of making a sequel. The same goes for the long forgotten Cirque Du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant, which comes out on DVD this Tuesday.
And yes, if its weekday holds are fine, Percy Jackson will be looking to cash a check of $100 million at the domestic box office AND start making a sequel.
I couldn't be happier for SI. Just great. Gives me some hope in audiences, actually
@Brad
You are so off base about The Last Song with Miley Cyrus, that I can't even laugh about it. You could sit around wondering if her movie will gross more than the $67 million she made on her recent "cut short to do her TV show" tour. But I guarantee it will do $260 million worldwide as a conservative estimate.
2008 Age 14 Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour #48 domestic ; #76 worldwide
2009 Age 15 Hannah Montana:The Movie #40 domestic ; #40 worldwide
2010 Age 16 The Last Song #23? domestic ; #23 worldwide?
2011 Age 17 Even better!
I know you're a big Miley fan. Which I can't comprehend, unless you're eight. But I'm not here to fight about it, just to give my opinion. Which I of course respect yours, even if I don't understand it. I see her as a Hilary Duff type. I think in 5 years she'll be gone. We shall see. She is going to have really diversify for me to take her seriously.
It's O.K. if you've put Miley in the "just for kids" box. You have a life and can't keep track of everything. Miley is a Rock and Roller. Her pop music has always had a lot of rock in it. Now that her time with Disney is winding down, she is going into alternative rock. Hillary Duff never had 1/100th of the success Miley has had. I'm pretty sure that Miley has given away more money to charity than Hillary Duff has made in her entire career (five million plus). One reason The Last Song will do well is that critics were successfully, they'll say realistically, able to put Hannah Montana: The Movie in the just for little kids box. They won't be able to get away with that for The Last Song, so you'll see an increase in box office performance.
The Olypic snowboarding team rocks out to Party in the U.S.A. all the time. So does Serena Williams. Lot's of college kids like her music, and some adults who have given it a chance, also.
Also, I agree about diversification. U2 needs to diversify for me to take Bono seriously. How about television, movies, or even a successful concert film? If you mean Miley needs to appeal to older adults, then just wait. Either they will come to enjoy her offerings, or they will grow old and retire, leaving the younger Miley fans in charge of the country.
Wow, except for Shutter Island, every film did less than predicted. Only $118M for the top ten combined, meaning 1 of every 3 moviegoers this weekend saw SI. Too bad Ghost Writer is only in NY/LA, I hope it goes wider before it disappears from theaters. It's running 79% at RT and seems to have done well for a limited opening.
Why does that studio always put their good movies (yes, I'm talking to you, The Hurt Locker) in limited release?
I think Summit has been preoccupied with the Twilight series. It's not a bad short-term strategy, but it's not sustainable unless they make Breaking Dawn a 3-parter and then move on to Twilight prequels.
Well, it was a brutal weekend at the box office. Edge of Darkness was #10, as almost everyone predicted. Valentine's Day dropped the most, also a unanimous prediction. Shutter Island did better than expected; can it cross $100 million? And next weekend is pre-Academy Awards weekend; can AMC pull in a lot of bucks w/their best picture movie marathon? The action movie Cop Out and the horror film The Crazies open next weekend.
1.Shutter Island-$35.8 (-11%)-it will defy the horror film drop formula next weekend.
2.Cop Out-$17.8 (N/A)-haven't seen much persuasion.
3.Valentine's Day-$10.3 (-40%)-the first 2010 film to cross $100 million.
4.The Crazies-$8.5 (N/A)-the biggest flop of the week.
5.The Lightning Thief-$8 (-48%)-can THIS cross $100 million?
6.The Wolfman-$5.6 (-43%)-…this definitely can't.
7.Dear John-$4.9 (-33%)-its beating out Avatar for #1 is victory enough.
8.Tooth Fairy-$3.9 (-13%)-will continue its amazing streak of holds.
9.Crazy Heart-$2.7 (-10%)-Jeff Bridges hasn't faded yet.
10.From Paris With Love-$1.3 (-36%)-will hold enough to drop only 1 spot.
You forgot Avatar! Give it $13M and toss John Travolta out of the top 10.
Oops. My bad. I'll fix it next week. I almost always forget a prediction. And I'll take your suggestion and move CH down one.
I don't think Shutter Island's performance was a big surprise.
I'm glad it's successful.
And plus I know alot of people that want to see it.
I'd probably watch it again.
I thought Shutter Island would open with more than $30 million, but $40 million? It seems the successful movies may be getting a "recession is winding down" bounce. Let's see if the top movies continue to do better than expected for the third week in a row, next weekend.
shutter island earned it, great to see people going to a good movie, curious how it will drop next weekend
shutter island -30 mil
acvatar 12 mil
the crazies-30 mil
NO offense Brad, but I hardly think Channing Tatum is the reason for Dear John's Success. If that was the case then Fighting would have done well. I really don't see him as a big box office draw at all.
The tv spots for DJ was insane, plus it was Nicholas Sparks novel.
We'll know for sure when The Last Song is released.
I think it's the combination of Tatum & Amanda Seyfried. He's a leading man for the teenage population and this film played to his "pretty boy with a heart" strengths, not to mention Seyfried is an up-and-coming star in her own right. Also, that Sparks novel in which the movie was based on is pretty damn popular to boot.
I know that mfan would probably disagree with me, but "The Last Song" isn't as readily marketable as "Dear John" is IMO. "Song" has Miley, but the movie doesn't have a strong, likable, well-known male lead. I don't know about this Liam Hemsworth guy, but he sure as hell is no Channing Tatum when it comes to box office draw. "Last Song" should do fine for itself, but it won't be a record-breaking blockbuster, just a solid performer.
Channing Tatum is definitely a box office draw. I've heard women exclaim OMG when seeing a picture of Channing. Liam Hemsworth is the youngest brother of Chris Hemsworth (Star Trek). He is just starting out in movies, and is not a box office draw at all. Miley will have to carry The Last Song on her shoulders, with an assist from Greg Kinnear, and Kelly Preston.
The Last Song can't be a blockbuster. It will break the record for a Nicholas Sparks movie, though.
Just back from Shutter Island….figuratively speaking that is. LOL Quite an interesting film, not at all what I expected. It had me going in circles. It was the only movie to see this weekend, the rest weren't worth the ticket price or my time…except Avatar, but I've already seen it.
What about Up in the Air?
@Brad
Why did I get the idea you guys were based in Seattle? If so, why does the comment time log add two hours to my Pacific Standard Time postings? Is your server in Texas?
Not surprised that it's number one, surprised that it broke $40 million in less than 3,000 theaters (it was close to that mark, but still). Good for Scorcese and crew, yet another success for him and Dicaprio.
Do you think that "Percy Jackson" will get a sequel? It's performing better than "Eragon" here in the states, and it's apparently made $67 million overseas already. However, it cost nearly $100 million to make, so it needs to break that mark here in the US and do at least twice that in international numbers for the studios to even toy around with the idea.
I need to get off this subject, but Nicholas Sparks says The Last Song release date has been changed to thursday, March 25, which would be two days before the Kid's Choice Awards. Miley is nominated for four awards, and no doubt will promote her movie. This is unconfirmed, but makes sense.
OOps! This is why reporters confirm their stories. I'm not sure, but the March 25 The Last Song release date stories could be based on a Wikipedia entry that could be faulty.
Note: March 25th turned out to be the date of the Hollywood Premiere of The Last Song. It's still opening on wednesday, March 31st.