Box-Office Wrap-Up: Dec. 4 – Dec. 6, 2009
COMMENTS
The Blind Side finally wins a weekend, but the weekend itself is a loser.
Nick, Miley Fan's first guess, and JM were the closest calls on the board, correctly prognosticating a near 50 percent drop for The Blind Side. I was lured in by last weekend's strong showing, underestimating the general public's last weekend off before a flood of huge movies.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 6 Weeks In A Row
Still, I'll take the win. And I stand by my "Bullock gets an Oscar nom" prediction.
Result: 20.4 million (My rank: #1, $9.7m off)
It fell almost 70 percent again. It's an interesting dilemma for Summit because it looks like this franchise is only going to get more frontloaded as we reach 2010 – 2011.
Result: 15.7 million (My rank: #2, $2.3m off)
3. Brothers
A little over a million people were willing to risk depression to buy a ticket here. It's not like I'm against sad movies… just sad ones without much of a point or plot cohesion.
Result: 9.7 million (My rank: #7, $2.4m off)
The international haul isn't going to be massive because a majority of the world doesn't celebrate Christmas. So that's a developing problem for this little cash sinkhole.
Result: 7.5 million (My rank: #5, $1.0m off)
5. Old Dogs
From $17m to $7m, this just must be a bad movie. Anyone out there seen it and want to share?
Result: 6.9 million (My rank: #4, $2.4m off)
6. 2012
It fell about the same as Old Dogs… but it's also hit $600m worldwide cume. That's good for the fourth best result of the year.
Result: 6.6 million (My rank: #3, $4.5m off)
7. Armored
I think the marketing was off. People weren't sure what it was… and so they stayed away.
Result: 6.6 million (My rank: #10, $.3m off)
Another massive drop from opening weekend, and with a somewhat hefty $40m production budget.
Result: 5.0 million (My rank: #6, $2.3m off)
9. Planet 51
Historically, I'm usually under on my predictions. This week was clearly different, I was far too kind to these films.
Result: 4.3 million (My rank: #8, $2.1m off)
10. Everybody's Fine
The first weekend since October where the top twelve will finish under $100m cume. Y'all clearly stayed away.
Result: 4.0 million (My rank: #9, $2.4m off)
So let's hear it. Any surprises? You want to start throwing out numbers on the biggest titles left for the year? That's right friends, we've got Nine, Avatar, Sherlock Holmes, Princess and the Frog, Invictus and Lovely Bones about to make our December bright. Hang in there!
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next week
princess and the frog-$57
invictius-$38
the blind side-$16
new moon-$10
brothers-$5
christmas carol-$4
2012-$3
armored-$2
up in the air-$2
everybodys fine-$1
I was out on Thursday so I didnt make my predictions. The Blind Side deserve this victory. I think New Moon will continue to fall on the next weekends.
Early Next Weekend Predictions: The Princess and the Frog wins with $31M and Invictus pulls out $20.0M.
Hell, I expected it all to be bad, but not that bad. Sheesh.
Next week TPatF wins with 30-35 million, Invictus makes like 11-13 million (if that), TBS holds well and NM loses less than 50% for the first time. And after that, yeah… Avatar.
I knew what "Armored" was from the get-go: a "heist gone wrong" type thriller. Now "Everybody's Fine"- that's a movie I don't get: so Robert De Niro has exceptionally good genes, and it's supposed to be a comedy but it's not, and also the other son isn't around for some reason…what?
As for next week, "Princess and the Frog" will take the crown with $34 million, "Invictus" could take second with $16 million, "The Blind Side" will be right behind it with $14 million.
Last point: The more I see and hear about "Avatar" (and I think this is with other people as well), the more I really don't want to see it. The graphics look cool, but everything else sounds really stupid. I had mentioned earlier this year that this movie will not live up to the hype, and I still stand by that. It'll be lucky to hit $200 million domestic total.
I say PATF makes about $40-50 mil first weekend then falls to avatar
Jeez, even De Niro can't carry a film anymore.
Laremy, Old Dogs is AWFUL. Not surprised it's doing poorly. Just hideous all around.
"The Princess and the Frog" will win next weekend. I guarantee it.
Considering the subject matter, that's pretty impressive that Brothers made it that high up in the top 10 over the weekend. I seem to be one of the few that really enjoyed the movie.
I'm also pretty surprised that A Christmas Carol is so high up. The Princess and the Frog will definitely take the top spot next weekend, with Invictus right behind it.
Avatar looks like it'll be big, or at least try to be, I have my doubts.
I'd say it'll pull somewhere between 60-80 million but I'd be interested to see how big the distribution is, as Fox have got a lot riding on this, it's like Titanic all over again without the witty newspaper headlines.
are we forgeting about The Lovely Bones??
@Kyle: The Lovely Bones is only opening in 3 theaters.
Next Weekend:
1.The Princess and the Frog-$38.5 (+5,102%)
2.Invictus-$19.7 (N/A)
3.The Blind Side-$15.3 (-25%)
4.Brothers-$7.2* (-25%)
5.New Moon-$8.3 (-47%)
6.A Christ. Carol-$5.5 (-26%)
7.2012-$4.6 (-30%)
8.Old Dogs-$3.5 (-49%)
9.Armored-$3.3 (-50%)
10.Ninja Assassin-$2 (-60%)
@m1: Oh okay. I am looking forward to it. Have you seen Brothers?
I'm looking forward to "the lovely bones" even moreso than "avatar" (although I still got my 3d avatar tix prepurchased). It's peter jackson! King kong may suffer from his own fanboy escapism, but the lord of the rings is juggernaut, and the frighteners is fantastic. Plus this is the first movie under 3 hours that he's done in over a decade.
I take princess and the frog for about 35 million. Lilo and stitch numbers (not counting for inflation) sounds about right. Higher total I'd imagine though. I feel invictus may pull decent numberd but it isn't that interesting to me personally. So my bias makes me want to make it lower than 16-18.
Let's note one thing about "A Christmas Carol", is will provide programming for ABC and Disney channel and Christmas time for 10-20 years, what's the value of that?
I thought Brothers was going to surprise and make a lot, but I guess not. Regardless of the subject, I just thought the big names would rack in a lot of people.
I'm not sure where in the world there is significant box office to be made and an aversion to Christmas. For instance, Christmas is a state holiday in India despite the scarcity of Christians (celebrations left over from British Colonialism), and widely celebrated in Japan (where they hardly need an excuse to party with electric lights and gift-buying.) If "A Christmas Carol" was a heavily religious film, then it might have limited appeal, but as a ghost story encouraging generosity it's not going to run up against any cultural roadblocks in the major markets.
Now, it might not get the boost that it will get in the states and Europe through Christmas associations, but it's not likely to be hurt anywhere by them either.
@AJ: I think you are way off. Consider:
Christmas Carol vs. 2012: A Case of Market Likes/Dislikes
Germany (Christmas Carol opened a week prior to 2012) $7m vs. $24m
Spain: (Opened same day) $5m vs $14m
2012 also made $6m in Turkey, a country that is 99.83% Muslim. Do you think Christmas Carol will make about the same?
So that's $30m. I'm not going to go through a tour of the world here, but I do think that mathematically the 2.1b people who recognize themselves as Christians aren't as big a group as the 3.9b people who don't. So I would think that films with no religious affiliation whatsoever (2012, Avatar, Sherlock Holmes) will fare better than something named after a Christian Holiday.
@AJ: For instance, do you think a "Ramadan Story" would crush at the box office here in America, regardless of the actual message of the film?
Too bad for The Blind Side. While it had the smallest drop of any wide release, it looks like it's too difficult to have a monster breakout hit if one has to deal with the large Post Thanksgiving drop. Warner Brothers believes it will easily cruise past $200 million. It will need $210.2 to match the 6.16 times opening weekend legs of The Hangover.
@Nick: and I are on the same wavelength for next weekend. Invictus is tough because it has both positive and negative things going for it. Rugby? Lot's of people are thinking $20 million, but I will be impressed if it can match the PTA of Brothers.
@steve: I agree. I noted that Polar Express which came out in 2004 makes millions in DVD sales every year, and as you say they probably put it on TV also. Still, waiting a decade or more to break even on A Christmas Carol is not what Disney had in mind.
Next Week:
1.The Princess and the Frog-$29.8
2.Invictus-$14.7
3.The Blind Side-$11.3
4.Brothers-$6.35
5.New Moon-$6.3
6.A Christ. Carol-$5.1
7.2012-$4.1
8.Old Dogs-$3.1
9.Armored-$2.6
10. Up In the Air-2.3
Does anyone know why Lovely Bones is only in limited release its first weekend or when/if it will go wide? I figured it would start wide
@- Laremy Legel:
I'm not sure that I understand the point of your comparison… Germany and Spain are both predominantly Christian countries, as is the U.S., and 2012 has out-grossed A Christmas Carol in every one of those territories. You certainly can't say that the connection to the Christmas season is an anchor weighing it down in those areas.
As for Turkey, I suspect that the difference between the grosses will be comparable to most other countries (as it straddles the cultural divide between Europe and the Mid-East), but I'll conceed that there are a few territories where it certainly won't be. However, I can't imagine that Disney or anyone frets overly about whether a movie can play strongly in those… and that's because the intolerant territories will be the exception, and not the rule. The percentage of Christians worldwide has little bearing on the acceptance of Christmas as a holiday… Much as American's don't need to know or care about who St. Patrick was in order to celebrate his holiday.
It's a national holiday in India, despite Christians being less than 3% of that enormous population. It's celebrated widely through Asia as a season for decorations (including Christmas Trees in public spaces) and gift-giving, and even China sees the commercial possibilities in it. In general, "Christmas" isn't off-putting to the non-Christian world… That might change if you're trying to sell them a religious spiel about Jesus, but "Peace on Earth, Goodwill to men, Merry Christmas!"..? That goes down just fine in most places.
Will the holiday drive box office in those places? Not to the extent that it will here… but it's more of a neutral aspect than a negative in most places where it isn't an outright positive. Because of this, I don't think the "A Ramadan Story" comparison really works. Most people here likely have no idea what Ramadan is, how it's celebrated, or what it means. "A Cinco De Mayo Story" might be a better comparison, as people here have a vague understanding of it being celebrated as a holiday without really caring about the meaning of it, and there also being some social friction between members of the majority and the minority that sincerely celebrates it. And in that case, yes I do believe that if such a movie existed and looked interesting with popular stars, people would look right past the title and associations of the holiday.
You all left out one another important family film of the year that will do some business as well. Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 should pull out strong family business for christmas, because lets not forget the last one made over 200 million.
@sks: I wanna know the same thing. On IMDB.COM it says it comes out on January 15, 2010 but im not quite sure, and yes it says USA.
@AJ: It's troubling to have this debate with you given you're going on a refutation of my ideas and not your own numbers. The numbers not only suggest I'm right, but that I'm so right as to make this entire exercise a pointless waste of Internet ink. Consider:
The Santa Clause: $144m / $45m
Santa Clause 2: $139m / $33m
Santa Clause 3: $84m / $26m
Four Christmases: $120m / $44m
How the Grinch Stole Chrismas: $260m / $85m
Nativity Story: $37m . $8m
Polar Express: $180 / $124m
Elf: $173 / $47m
The first number is domestic box office. The second is international. Where is your counter-example of a film that will do well internationally with a Christmas theme? For some odd reason you're arguing all of Christendom's viewing habits, but there are huge disparities between how even the Christian cultures celebrate. There is no unifying crowd to raise Christmas Carol's hopes.
In fact, it seems fairly certain that if Christmas Carol ends up at $150m domestically the most it could hope for is $100m internationally, and I think even that is a huge stretch. The word "Christmas" does hurt its chances in a way that the word "2012" does not.
"yes I do believe that if such a movie existed and looked interesting with popular stars, people would look right past the title and associations of the holiday."
This statement is akin to me saying "If you could imagine a world where people see a big movie with huge stars then I'd be proven right." It's logically flawed because it relies on a premise not yet proven. My statement, that Christmas Carol won't do as well internationally, seems to be the norm. Your fanciful world seems to be the outlier.
I'm not saying I wouldn't rather live in your world, I'm simply saying that my world is more true. Christmas movies don't make international bank. It could be because they've all be marketed wrong, but it's probably more likely that international audiences simply aren't as interested in them as they are other films. And why should they be?
@Laremy Legel: Also, in Turkey, Christmas Carol made $200k. I don't think that is very much money given the $200m production budget.
Even though Nicole Kidman is not a box office draw in the U.S., she still can get attention overseas, highlighting the fact that the international audience is increasingly deciding what we watch here at home. Even though it's not too noticeable now, it's the trend for the future. Look at The Blind Side. This movie was passed over by Fox Studios, even after they had paid for the film rights to the book. It had to be funded by an independent production company, basically an angel. If we were in a speculating frame of mind, we could think The Blind Side was passed over by Fox because american football won't travel overseas, where they don't even understand the game's rules. Only now, with it's huge success, are they considering an international release, which will only happen if market research shows it can succeed.
Bigger budget Christmas films are safe, though, because the market for them, both here and abroad, is growing (population growth, more affluence.) Which is good. I saw The Nativity Story for free because it's producer was formerly a member of my brother's church, and he screened it for them for free. Good mssage, but people expect to be impressed at the movie theaters these days, which means either bigger budgets, more creativity, A-list production, big stars, impressive acting, or a combination of these, and/or etc.
@- Laremy Legel
I'm not trying to disturb you, I simply questioned your premise which is, after all, was an assumption just like any other. There are a great many factors that go into box office success and "nobody knows anything", as it were.
I was not completely convinced on the idea that a Christmas theme *hurts* a movie in the rest of the world. Your numbers do indicate that it doesn't provide the help that it does here in the states, but I suppose it's such a significant difference in those films listed that it's an argument of semantics on my part… "lack of help" = "hurts" in all those cases you mention. There are other trends at work in those movies you listed (obviously Tim Allen isn't a draw overseas, breakout comedies almost never do as well overseas as they do here, etc.) but I'd say they establish a Christmas trend well.
One area where you are wrong in regards to the numbers is with the film we are actually discussing, however… at least according to the numbers given by The Hollywood Reporter. In an article dated Dec. 6th, "'New Moon' repeats atop int'l boxoffice", it states that the international take for "A Christmas Carol" lies at "$118.2 million" already, which is, in fact, more than it has made domestically at this point by $3 million, ("worldwide cume is $233.2 million"). It may not continue to have legs overseas, especially if the holiday theme provides no help to carry it through December, but it certainly is not as grim a picture as you predict.
@- Laremy Legel
The only numbers I could find for Turkey don't make a lot of sense… Box Office Mojo's international numbers have "A Christmas Carol" opening way back on 9/9/09, months before bowing anywhere else in the world. The current total they have after 12 weeks is that paltry $200,000, yet they say that it made $74,000 of that on its 12th weekend in 29 theaters. So the movie has had either the oddest release I can imagine over there, or there's at least one typo at work.
Assuming it's the total that is correct out of all of that, then yes… it certainly didn't play at all in Turkey.
@AJ: I haven't seen those int'l numbers for Christmas Carol yet, but if that's the case it could very well outgain the domestic numbers. Which would be a shocker, at least given the trend.
TP&tF has made $2.4mil in its limited (NY/LA) engagement so far. How does that factor in to your predictions, anyone?
@Matt B.: I'm comfortable with a $37 million opening for P&F, with up to 5 million more not unexpected. People with kid's are probably hungry for a suitable movie right now.
The Numbers website is reporting that A Christmas Carol is looking like it will make more money overseas than here, but I'm thinking P&F will close the door on it here. But I was wrong about that once before. G.I. Joe was one of those movies that kept slowly plodding along and eventually did O.K. It seems A Christmas Carol is like that. It's just that we've all been conditioned to an emphasis on quick openings, in part because of more competition. If news of fewer movies being made for next year are correct, we'll see a lot more of this plodding along, like in previous decades.
Emergency!!! The worldwide gross of 2012 is now $666 million! Armaghedon confirmed!
Oh my god!! The Blind Side will win 185 or more !!
Good for Sandra Bullock