Box-Office Wrap-Up: Dec. 25 – Dec. 27, 2009
COMMENTS
The biggest box-office weekend ever!
Whoa. It looks like this weekend provided the biggest three-day take in history, a whopping $264m cume for the top twelve if the estimates hold. My streak stayed alive, barely, though clearly I underestimated the strength of the weekend. I thought it would be the second best weekend of the year… instead it was the best ever. Let's break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 9 Weeks In A Row
1. Avatar
Alert commenters Athar and 'Just Myself' both had calls in the $64m range, this one exceeded even the loftiest expectations. Avatar lost less than three percent, how's that for staying power? The worldwide cume will go over half a billion by next weekend, 20th Century Fox is coming on strong as the year closes.
Result: 75.0 million (My rank: #1, $22.2m off)
I saw it again this weekend and had a solid time. 'Just Myself' was closest on this one too, only $16m light. We were all pretty low, eh? Warner Bros. has surpassed $2b at the box office this year, so drinks all around for those guys. Sherlock is in nice shape to mount a serious charge next weekend — Avatar has to fall at some point, right?
Result: 65.3 million (My rank: #2, $18.2m off)
The Squeakquel banked. Ryan, Topy, and Mfan all threw up $50m calls… and they were correct. I had hoped people would abandon this franchise but my hopes were dashed as commerce won out. Parents needed a PG product and Fox delivered.
Result: 50.2 million (My rank: #3, $13.7m off)
Nick and JAC were both dialed in here, and I was only $1m off my own self. This was the adult alternative title, well positioned by Universal.
Result: 22.1 million (My rank: #4, $1m off)
Blerg. This should have been released a couple weeks ago. $6,200 per theater isn't enough to build any serious buzz.
Result: 11.75 million (My rank: #5, $5.65m off)
When you figure out why I keep picking against this title please let me know. I'm like Charlie Brown with Lucy holding the football over here.
Result: 11.73 million (My rank: #8, $5.6m off)
It fell the most of any title in the top ten this weekend. You know what should have been a full length film? Prep and Landing. That was a dynamite little Christmas special.
Result: 8.6 million (My rank: #6, $1.1m off)
8. Nine
Brutalized. It clearly didn't have the accessibility of Chicago or Moulin Rouge.
Result: 5.5 million (My rank: #7, $1.6m off)
The production budget was listed at $58m??!! That's a ton of money to spend on a non-CGI romantic comedy. Sidenote: I watched Love Actually over the weekend… now that's a Hugh Grant movie worth catching!
Result: 5.0 million (My rank: #9, $0.7m off)
10. Invictus
They have very little hope of making a profit unless it really thrives internationally.
Result: 4.3 million (My rank: #10, $0.7m off)
How say you? Did you catch a movie during the biggest weekend ever? Which of the monster numbers surprised you the most? And do we have a legit horse race next weekend as a I go for a double-digit streak? Comment away!
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Thats great news for the industry, a strong close to the year will make everyone happy. Hope Sherlock is #1 next weekend though.
I also enjoyed Prep and Landing.
Hopefully Disney builds on the Lanny and Wayne brand.
The WOM in Avatar was clearly great. Sherlock Holmes is a good movie to, it was, for me, the most surprising result of the weekend. Incredible weekend, with 3 movies doing more then $50M. Simply amazing.
Next weekend early predictions: 1-Avatar ($58M); 2-Sherlock Holmes ($42M); 3-Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 ($36M).
Super Weekend!!
I knew Avatar would collect much more than what others were predicting but Sherlock Holmes truly pulled up a surprise. I had made an early call last weekend of 65m+ for this title but then as the week went by, i felt that the prediction was too bold. It turns out it wasnt!! The movie releases in India in 2 weeks time so will have to wait till then.
As for Avatar, i have seen it twice already. Third viewing probably in the 2nd week of January(my exams will be on now) And i am not sure if that would be enough. I might still go back to the theatres for that one again and again and again. That is how much i liked the movie. It is truly an out-of-this-world experience.
Heres some Indian Box-Office news for you. Avatar got the highest opening ever for a Hollywood movie in India, and also the 3rd Highest Opening for any movie this year(even doing better than the Bollywood Biggies). By the end of its run, it would easily become the No.1 Hollywood movie in India(2012 recently broke the record set by Spiderman 3)
Any changes in your Final Worldwide Cume predictions for Avatar Laremy?
Avatar has reached 615 millions worldwide wow that’s insane for a movie which has no star in it.Look at the article of Box Office Mojo.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=avatar.htm
Damn it! Holmes was so close to 70 million! I think Avatar will fall a bit next weekend, somehwere in the 30 to 40 million range, maybe higher though.
Avatar is doing bonanza business indeed, but the real question now should be will it reach 400mill + domestic ? It will have no problem clearing 300, but I expect it to be halfway there by the end of next week. It would be pretty insane if we had two films gross over 400mill in the same year.
Wow…. Bonzo weekend at the box office. I thought my predictions were already pushing the envelope, but I suppose people were hungry for some good films. They had quite a selection of them this weekend.
Really glad to see Avatar doing so well, it really is a great film. Is that the biggest 2nd weekend ever? I went to go see it a second time on IMAX yesterday, but my group and myself ended up seeing in in 2D because all of their 3D shows for the day – both IMAX and RealD – were sold out. This was 11:00am when the whole day in 3D was sold out. Our 2D showing was completely packed, too (1:15pm), so people were willing to just see the movie without the allure of 3D. That's good, if you ask me.
Haven't seen Sherlock Holmes yet, but I'm glad it's doing well. The buzz on this one in my town has been enourmous in the past few weeks (I like in a suburb outside of Orlando, FL). Can't wait to see this one on Monday.
The Squeakuel – *sigh* No comment.
It's Complicated – Nice debut for that kind of romantic comedy. Look forward to seeing it in the next few weeks.
Up in the Air – Very dissapointing start in wide release! This is by far the best film of the year. Hopefully, WoM will keep it afloat through Awards season.
Early predictions for next weekend:
1. Avatar: $67.8, I see it dropping a little more than 10%
2. Sherlock Holmes: $55.6, roughly 15% drop
3. The Squeakuel: $40.2
4. It's Complicated: $16.4
5. Up in the Air: $8.2
I look at Avatar and I still see 400mi minimum. With a great shot at 500mi. This movie is destined to be huge, and will be even bigger internationally!
Who wants to bet that Avatar will the the number two movie in box office history? I think it will!! Maybe not in the US, but worldwide, I think it has a very good chance.
@Leandro Dubost: once people go back to work and school next week avatar will fizzle, no way it makes more then 550 mil domestically
If Alvin and the Chipmuks: The Squeakquel was released on Friday, Would that have a bigger O.W than Avatar?
I'm glad Avatar is doing well in the box office. For being a non-sequel, with no huge star, I think it's doing pretty well.
9 in a row. You're approaching your record, Laremy.
I would go with Sherlock Holmes next week, If I was you.
Predictions for Next Weekend
Avatar Will not drop less than 10 percent. Come on, It's already the 1st of January! It'll probably take 50-60Mil, while Sherlock gets an expected decline to 40+Mil. Alvin though, may be taking a steep decline. Maybe going for a 25-35Mil range.
As for other movies, I don't care. Avatar for the win! Now this is Titanic! Only 2 times bigger! As long as it stays at number one for at least 6 weeks.
BOM has Avatar at $615 million worldwide with a strong box office weekend for all movies coming up next!!! I talked to four guys at work who saw Avatar in 2D (for various reasons), and the talk was whether they should go back to see in in 3D. I think at least half of them will, if not all. BOM has it as having the tenth smallest drop ever for a supersaturated release (3,000+ theaters). That's misleading though. They need a new category for "Smallest drop among Blockbusters" (by far). As for Avatar's domestic box office potential: I,m trying to imagine someone who enthsiastically went to see The Dark Knight who has no enthusiasm at all for Avartar. I'm trying….I'm trying….
@Just Myself: You wouldn't be sighing at the Sqeakquel if you had seen what I've seen. I was once in an older 1,000 seat second run theater with family pricing that was showing Casper the Friendly Ghost. It was not only packed, the place was truly just like a rock concert! It was incredible! When little kids like something, they definitely let you know it. I remember idealistically liking animals when I was very young. Let the little kids have their fun. This is the first successful franchise for them.
I admit I'm not the biggest Robert Downey jr. fan out there, but I have to give him his props. It looks like he will be the first actor in history to anchor TWO blockbuster franchises!!! This year at the box office has been amazing!
The Blind Side dropped 50% on the post Thanksgiving weekend. Except for that understandable glitch, it has had better holds than The Hangover every weekend. Unfortunately, it stared out at $34 million instead of the Hangover's $44 million. I'm now expecting $245 million for The Blind Side, but stay tuned for developements as it continues to surprise on the upside.
wait,,,, so it took 3 high profile movies to break TDK's record?
@mfan: dont forget Harrison Ford! Star Wars and Indiana Jones! Han Solo for the win!
@Arjuna: Sorry, I meant…at the same time!
@mfan: Star Wars and Indiana Jones were, for the most part, at the same time. The original Star Wars triology was 1977-1980-1983, Indiana Jones was 1981-1984-1989.
As for little kid friendly franchises…. High School Musical, Ice Age, Shrek, Spy Kids, etc. Alvin is hardly the first kid-friendly franchise.
And I've seen what you've seen. It's still an awful movie.
Such a great thing to see the Box Office doing this well. These numbers are absolutely incredible.
I'm watching "Avatar" again tonight–that counts as part of the weekend. Then I'll watching "Holmes" and "Up in the Air" and maybe "Nine" sometimes during the week, or else over next weekend. I have access to a car until the 8th, when I go back up to college and then have to get rides off friends. So I plan to do a lot of theatergoing between now and then (because it's so hard to arrange movie outings in college when nobody wants to see the movie, or even when people DO want to see the movie).
@Just Myself: Thanks for keeping me honest. I had not realized that Indiana Jones came out before Star Wars had filmed it's third movie. Maybe because this was towards the beginning of the sequel era. Was Planet of the Apes the first batch?
I didn't count HSM because it was not a theatrical series, plus it was for teenagers. And I think Hollywood has me brainwashed into thinking of Ice Age and Shrek as movies for people of all ages. I didn't think of spy kids because that is for kids who are a little older than the Chipmunks age. Maybe I should go to see it in the theater to guage the ages of the kids, but my feeling was Alvin was a movie for second graders, tops. More like kindergarden and the first grade. The ones who call fourth graders "The big kids". Kids who see Spy Kids are really too old for Casper or Scooby Doo, aren't they? I will rethink the Shrek thing, but I don't any adults will be in the Chipmunks movie without kids. The Chipmunks is for little kids only! That's why you think it's a bad movie, but you might not think Shrek is a bad movie. Weren't Casper and Scooby Doo just awful for adults too? Am I making sense?
I guess the reason I'm impressed by Robert Downey jr. is because it's looking like he is going to anchor two franchises while they are in their beginning stages! That's a lot more impressive than getting a new franchise when your old one is winding down. But Harrison Ford had a truly awesome career. I don't think anyone can look at his filmography without being impressed.
I don't want to be a blog hog, but I want to be clear about The Chipmunks. I believe it's the first fan driven franchise for very young (preschool to second grade) children. While The Ice Age movies have been a successful franchise, I've never ever heard a little kid say, "I can't wait until the next Ice Age movie comes out; I really want to see it." Parents take kids to see The Ice Age because it's an O.K. (not really), age appropriate movie. The Chipmunks is a whole different phenomenon. It's something more like Hannah Montana, except for even younger kids. If Hollywood could somehow make Barney exciting, that would be a comparable movie. This is something new.
Just think, Robert Downey Jr. is three years removed from "The Shaggy Dog".
400mil is in the bag for Avatar and it will easily unseat a certain piss poor movie that currently stands as the no.1 grosser of the year and keep it from winning the Vfx Oscar. Avatar will be no.1 til next week and most likely through all of January.
When actuals are released, I expect Avatar to inch up some more and beat TDK's 2nd weekend record of just a shade above 75.1mil. Avatar will be no.1 again next week and for the next few weeks. Sherlock had a solid opening but I don't see it usurping Avatar for no.1 next weekend.
1.Avatar= 61.5mil (It'll break the 3rd weekend record of 45mil)
2.Sherlock=43.5mil
3.Chipmunks 2= 40mil
Based on everyone's low predictions I'm thinking this weekend was a fluke. Next week I have Avatar dropping 15% down to 63.7 mil.
Sherlock Holmes isn't going to have the same WoM power though and I think it will drop 35% to 42.2 mil.
I'd still call Avatar for #1 next week.
once the 8th roles around avatar will drop hard because
A) school and work will be back to normal so the weekday numbers wont be insane.
B) you have daybreakers which will steal away the 18+ males
C) you have Leap Year which will pull away the female demo and there boyfriends
D) You have Youth In Revolt which will steal away a good chunk of the teen demo
E) And doctor parnassus goes wide
I concede to you Mr. James Cameron.
Months ago, I said that "Avatar" would be the biggest bust of the year- a failed theatrical experiment that would repel many and not really please anyone.
But here we are, 10 days after your film has released, and the film is well on its way to being one of the highest grossing movies of all time. Not to mention that the movie was a fantastic experience as well.
I was wrong, I'll admit.
Ok, back to business.
What a weekend! Great, accessible, popular movies all around- most everyone caught a movie this Christmas weekend. I'm so glad when the box office is bursting like this- it gives me a high that nothing else can top.
Next weekend, I say that Avatar threepeats- hell, it could four-peat I think, nothing but maybe "Daybreakers" will be doing any real damage, so as long as it doesn't completely crash, "Avatar" will be our #1 for nearly a month after its release!
Well, i think Avatar will be #1 until The Book of Eli arrives on 15th January…
Next week predictions:
1- Avatar: $62.5 mil
2- Sherlock Holmes: $42.9 mil
3- Alvin 2: $27.7 mil
4- It's Complicated: $14.5 mil
5- The Blind Side: $9.8 mil
Me and my husband went and saw 'The Blind Side' on Christmas Day. Thinking that bc it had been out awhile we arrived late, and there were hardly any seats open!! But, it was sooo worth it!! It was one of the best movies that i have ever seen!!
I agree with some, This weekend ticket sales might go up again seeing that New Years Eve falls on a thursday and that new years day falls on a friday and some end up having time off, but, You gotta think after this weekend most of the kiddies will head back to school, and like someone commented earlier back to college (where it is harder to get to the movies) most back to work, sales will end so shoppers wont be out as much, and the holidays will be over. So some sales will drop. Not saying that it will absolutely do extreme damage but im sure they do expect some..
Im sure Avatar will stay at number one for weeks to come, with Sherlock Holmes, and Squeakuel staying close behind, and who knows maybe Nine will actually do what it was hyped up to do and do better than 5.5 mil.. but i see the top 3 looking something like this the next few weeks,, especially considering nothing that "big" really comes out until the 15th of January and then i see maybe 'The Lovely Bones' or possibly 'The Book of Eli' doing something.
And another thing…Ive read some saying that Avatar will break some records..and i totally agree but, i dont see it ending up at number 2 behind Titanic.. or number 1 for that matter bumping titanic down.. I will say thats its gonna be big.. but im not gonna say that big..
Just saw Avatar again and it's just as good the second time around. It now has the record for the highest grossing second weekend, and soon will have the third and fourth, etc. Based on the number of people in my theater, monday could have another $16 million day. If that is true then Avatar will break one billion dollars by the end of next weekend.
I'm predicting more of the same next weekend:
Avatar $75m
Sherlock Holmes $62m
The Chipmunks $54m I don't believe New Years Day will suppress sales for young children by $5 million like Christmas Day probably did?
The Blind Side $15m Because this movie is not near it's opening number, it should
have a nice increase.
"Avatar" grossed $19 million on Monday. Total now stands at $232 million. "The Squeakquel" was #2 with $12 million and "Sherlock Holmes" rounded out the Top 3 with $11 million.
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@joe_6285:
Holy Beast! Avatar is unstoppable! The 3rd, 4th, and 5th weekend records are all going down and it probably won't even stop there. 400mil DOM is well in the bag. It should be knocking at the door of 1billion worldwide by the end of the weekend. The movie has ALL IMAX 3d screens and the majority of 3d screens for the foreseeable future, since the next big 3D event is not coming until March (Alice in Wonderland).
The Blind Side is going to be in 10 digit territory for the 7th week in a row! Only eight other films have ever accomplished that. If it makes it to 8 weeks then it will fourth behind E.T. Home Alone, and Titanic for that kind of longevity.
People, people. After only dropping SO little THIS weekend, do you REALLY think Avatar will hold up NEXT weekend? I say Sherlock Holmes will pull a The Blind Side and be #1 in a following weekend.
Next week:
1.Sherlock Holmes-$33.8* (-47%) could easily make it
2.Avatar-$30.2 (-60%) people have seen it already
3.Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel-$30.1 (-38%) oh, would I love to drop it more
4.Up in the Air-$15.4 (+38%) I want to see it, but it's rated-R
5.It's Complicated-$13.3 (-40%) adult entertainment that performed well this weekend
6.The Blind Side-$9.8 (-15%) will this EVER drop out of the top 10?
7.Nine-$6.9 (+28%) and THIS is the favorite for the Best Musical Golden Globe?
8.The Princess and the Frog-$7 (-22%) speaking of awards contenders not doing well..
9.Did You Hear About the Morgans?-$2 (-60%) the WORST reviewed movie on this list
10.Invictus-$3.5 (-13%) speaking of awards contenders not doing well..(part 2)
@Vince (Not Vance): You are looking at the wrong weekend. That's 2 weeks from now!
There's no chance Avatar is dropping 60% this coming weekend or even the next weekend. I expect a great hold for it this New Years weekend of around -10 to -15%, and will stabilize to about the -30% range the rest of it's run. It has defied all pre-existing box office trends thus far and it is just simply the perfect storm right now.
@m1: Yes, we are getting excited! But not by a fantasy, but by reality. According to BOM:
Christmas 2005 fell on a Sunday; New Years results: up 30.6%
Christmas 2004 fell on a Saturday; New Years results: up 4.4%
Christmas 1999 fell on a Saturday; New Years results: up 11.8%
Christmas 1998 fell on a Friday; New Years results: down 24.6%
Christmas 1994 fell on a Sunday; New Years results: up 51.1%
Christmas 1993 fell on a Saturday; New Years results: up 47.9%
Christmas 1992 fell on a Friday; New Years results: down 2.4%
Christmas 1988 fell on a Saturday; New Years resulots: up 18.3%
Christmas 1987 fell on a Friday; New Years results: up 8.0%
Christmas 1983 fell on a Saturday; New Years results: up 55.1%
The only reason I am expecting holds for this weekend instead of increases is because of the record box office, and the expectation that films shouldn't do better than their opening weekend. Except for The Blind Side on Thanksgiving, that is.
Tuesday Results:
Avatar 18.3 million See you at $1 billion on Sunday
Chipmunks 12.5 Their Soundtrack to this movie is #30 on the Billboard 200 chart
Sherlock 10.2 Weaker opening multiplier equals losing steam
The Blind Side 3 million Will it's weekend gross see a New Years increase?
Avatar will hold very well, so many people loved it.
There are no other big movies this january before the release of Book of Eli, but I have a feeling even with Denzel Washington new movie coming, it will have it's holding power. After all, it has all the 3D and IMAX 3D theaters out there til March.
1 billion dollar is a clear goal for this movies, even has a chance to beat Return of the King as the no 2 in all time worldwide box office.
Will it beat out Titanic? I don't think so though.
I just watched Sherlock Holmes yesterday, and the story didn't interest me that much. It's funny, well acted (not great though), and well paced, but somehow Chipmunks entertained me better (for real, and it kinda show from the box office both domestic and I hope international)
Anyway, AVATAR will definetely win this week box office with numbers around 60 mil or more. Break another record? Bravo James!
Regards from Indonesia