Box-Office Wrap-Up: Dec. 24 – Dec. 26, 2010
'Fockers' wins the weekend, but 'True Grit' is what I want to talk about
Unfortunately, this weekend saw Laremy's seven week string of picking the #1 movie correctly come to an end, but there's still some good cheer to spread. Let's get to it.
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| I couldn't bring myself to go see it, but apparently families weren't as turned off by the first two or the highly unfunny trailers as Little Fockers took the weekend. Yet, there is a ray of sunshine in my life, where I hope this is the last of these focking films… Little Fockers was tracking for a $55-68 million five-day weekend and it only managed $48.3. Does this mean we won't get a Fockers First Friends Fourquel? As for the closest reader predictions… Well, it's hard to get much closer than Kid's spot on $34 million prediction. Nice work! Result: $34 million Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 and his prediction of $28.29 million was $5.71m off for a percentage error of 16.79%. | |
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Tracking had this one at $28-30 million for the five-day and it sailed right by those numbers.
Additionally, True Grit's reported budget was $33 million… not bad for an indie when you make almost $4 million more than your budget in your first five days of release. Will this end up being the Coens' first $100 million feature? No Country for Old Men is their highest grossing to date at $74 million… It's got to beat that right? Personally I'm guessing at something closer to $80-90 million, how about you?
I was happy to see a lot of people predicting more than $20 million for this one and a lot of folks were in the $22 million range, but cineJAB's $24 million pick takes the cake.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $21.33 million, which is $4.27m off for a 16.68% error.
I'll say we're now looking at something like $130-140 domestically. However, international numbers will be the test here and Box-Office Mojo says those are already totaling $23 million. Will we see another one? I hope so… I want better.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 with $28.62 million, which is $8.52m off for a 42.39% error.
Foreign dollars on this bad boy are currently listed at $128 million and climbing. Maybe we will see another Narnia movie as the worldwide film market is now playing just as big of a role as domestic in some cases… if not more.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $10.03 million, which is $0.77m off for a 7.13% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $12.31 million, which is $3.51m off for a 39.89% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $10.31 million, which is $1.81m off for a 21.29% error.
A lot of readers didn't even bother predicting how well this one would do over the two days, but those that did went a little high. I'm thinking that's due to a bit of confusion, thinking three days instead of two. However, the closest prediction came from John Debono with $8.7 million, besting Winchester's prediction by only $100,000.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $9.6 million, which is $2.4m off for a 33.33% error.
On a side note, this is now Darren Aronofsky's highest grossing domestic release. Black Swan is now at $29 million, which is $2.8 million more than The Wrestler made. Of course, it's in double the theaters of The Wrestler and once Aronofsky releases The Wolverine in 2012 the conversation will be over in that film's first day… but let's enjoy it while we can.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $11.62 million, which is $5.02m off for a 76.06% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $5.3 million, which is $1.2m off for a 18.46% error.
Laremy's rank: Not Ranked
Ah ha, the moment you've been waiting for, the respectable indie film corner! First up, the new releases.
Sofia Coppola's Somewhere was released into seven theaters this weekend and wins the per theater award as it made $142,000 for the three-day, $20,286 per theater. This is a film unlikely to make much of a splash in theaters due to its highly minimalist nature, but it's nice to see the supporters turning out.
Next is Sylvain Chomet's The Illusionist, which made $50,600 from three theaters for a $16,867 per theater average. This one opened along with Gulliver's Travels on Christmas, so we're looking at a two day total here as well. I plan on watching this one again today or tomorrow before I finish working on my top ten of 2010.
Finally, on the new release side, Screen Gems released the Gwyneth Paltrow starrer Country Strong into two theaters and made a meager $17,300. You do the math on the per theater count.
The Weinstein Co. added 657 theaters to The King's Speech's run on Saturday bringing it to 700 theaters total where it made $4.5 million and ended up 11th for the weekend. Probably could have made the top ten had they expanded on Friday.
Fox Searchlight made another $205,000 on 127 Hours from 115 theaters and Lionsgate's Rabbit Hole added 29 theaters and came away with $95,200.
As for next weekend, it's indie city as Another Year, Biutiful, Blue Valentine and The Way Back all hit limited theaters. Anyone care to guess at how well they'll do and how well the top ten will shake out next weekend? Will True Grit maintain a strong hold? Will Little Fockers plummet? Comment away directly below.
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1.) A three-day cume of 48.7 mil for LITTLE FOCKERS is nothing to complain about. Although its mixed reviews it will hold just fine for next weekend because it is a holiday weekend and this is people's first choice.
2.) TANGLED is doing just fine. No complaints are necessary.
3.) Are yyou kidding about THE FIGHTER? Its doing great at the box office for that sort of film!!
And 'How Do You Know' already vanishes…………..
I'm glad to see the massive drop for Tron. The word of mouth couldn't have been good for it… truly dreadful film.
Massive? Since when is 54% drop massive?
I view that as a huge drop considering it's a family film and family films almost always get a big bump on holiday weekends. See: Avatar last Christmas, Blind Side last Thanksgiving.
54% would be normal under other circumstances. Just not this weekend.
This weekend overall wasn't much of a holiday one. Lemony Snicket dropped 59% on Dec 24-26 weekend 6 years ago. Next weekend will be the holiday weekend.
Also, Tron might as well have been PG-13, there's nothing about it that screams "family film". It's as much of a family film as Pirates of the Caribbean.
Good for Little Fockers, following the sequel's pattern it'll manage $180m with ease. Though that'd still be $100m less than the predecessor and I hope this is enough for them not to do another one.
Fantastic for True Grit, like I said it's an example of smart adult entertainment making bank (see Basterds, Road to Perdition, The Town, Scorsese's last 2 films) and I couldn't be more happy for it. With holidays approaching and Oscar buzz, I believe it could do $140 million domestically, which would make it the highest grossing western in 20 years. The genre might just be back in a major way.
Tron Legacy had a bit better second weekend hold than Lemony Snicket and King Kong, and following those films' patterns, it should have no problem making $180 million. I think you underestimate how big the next weekend will be, Brad; look at the same weekend in 2004, when Meet the Fockers dropped just 10% and everything else increased. All films are going to make a truckload of money in a coming week. Narnia could finish in a $110-120 million range after this week's amazing hold, Tangled should likewise finish with $180 million or so. The Fighter and Black Swan are looking at $60 million totals at least. It's going to be fine, really Gulliver's Travels is the only loser (though even it is going to do $50 million after all) and I'm happy it is.
It might be worth a double-check on Biutiful and The Way Back…neither is listed on BOM as releasing this week any longer and Biutiful's website now says "in select cities January 28." I couldn't find a website for The Way Back.
Everything did more or less what I expected this week, though True Grit did a little better, but Dawn Treader did a lot better. That's really only reflected in the ranking though (I had it at 9) because the difference in dollars is only a few million. I'm not sure it makes a whole lot of difference at this point. Maybe if they make The Silver Chair they should try something radical, like release it overseas a few months before they release it domestically.
This was the first of what will likely be three weekends of Fockers vs. True Grit at the top. Next weekend should be closer, but for True Grit to win it would have to fall just 20-25% (which is very doable), but with Fockers falling 50%. That seems less likely, given the time of year. I'll probably take Fockers to repeat next weekend, but as long as Season of the Witch bombs the following weekend, that might be True Grit's best shot. I'm withholding my overall opinion on True Grit until I can see it again. I absolutely hated the stunted, contraction-less dialogue, and I don't care if that's how people talked back then, to me it just didn't work at all cinematically. But other than that, it was absolutely brilliantly made, which is what's so damn frustrating to me. I'm hoping I can get past the dialogue on a second viewing.
Forgot, I also overestimated Tron pretty badly.
Meet the Fockers dropped 10% in exactly the same weekend 6 years ago. Neither Little Fockers nor True Grit should fall harder next weekend. 50%? Come on.
It also has terrible reviews. But I still said it was unlikely. Chill out man.
Well, so did Grown Ups. And I'm not trying to be obnoxious or anything here, I'm sorry if that's the impression
I think True Grit will continue to play well over the coming week and into next weekend. In it's first three days it was stronger than most anticipated and it's Friday hold was better than most of the others.
I could see it getting past $100 million, even if not by miles. But on a low £35 million budget the studio should still be happy with that and it will likely boost the Oscar chances.
Tron: Legacy continues to not particularly impress anyone (all that spend, all the PR and at Christmas time with 3D Holiday prices it still hasn't cracked $100 million by it's second weekend? That's just not great at all. Plus it's in over half the international markets and has only amassed $60+ million there so far). I'd guess around the $130 million when all is said and done. Maybe $200 international which is far, far below what Disney will have wanted.
Narnia 3 might make a comeback this week to get past $100 million overall but it looks like when the global picture is taken into account it may do better than Narnia 2 thanks to the lower budget.
Black Swan is surely heading well into the black now and should easily get to $60 million plus. But also a good show for the expansion of The King's Speech. It should turn a nice figure by the end of it's run as well at this rate, once international comes through.
The only thing left for me to wonder is how many theatres will 'How Do You Know' be pulled from at first opportunity and how soon will Sony stop bothering to track it's abysmal performance?
LOL@…last of these focking films (good one Brad).
Please let True Grit be number 1 movie next weekend.
A little surprised by Black Swan. I'm hoping that it can be the one art-house that gets over the 100 million mark. Following in the foot steps of Juno and Slumdog Millionaire's place.
It won't unless it wins Best Picture all of a sudden. At this point, The Fighter has a better chance, and even it should struggle to hit $70-80 million.
I rekon we will see another Narnia movie being made afterall when it's all said and done.
Let's not forget that The Golden Compass was insanely huge overseas, more specifically in western European countries, where inevitably the source material is better known.
I hoped Black Swan would do better, but no matter. It will still do well. I saw it yesterday, and it was pretty good, but a bit overwrought.
The King's Speech did very well for a limited release that went wide on a Saturday. I think it is easily said that it will hit the top ten next weekend.
Word-of-mouth on Little Fockers will be heartbreaking, so True Grit should easily win next weekend. I say it will hit $18 million.
I am not too surprised that the box office is down so much this weekend from last year. When I got to the movies in the early afternoon, the foyer was EMPTY. When I left Black Swan at around 5, the foyer was STILL EMPTY. Or maybe people were away for the holidays. Either way, horrible.
i think true grit will be number next weekend with all the good buzz it's getting
I almost stopped reading when I heard Ladykillers. That was quite possibly the worst movie I have ever watched. It's the only movie that I felt sick when I realised that I would never get that hour and a half back.
i just saw little fockers didn't hate but didn't enjoy it as much as the others but just wanted to say did anyone see barbara streisand's in character heart disease psa that preceeded the opening credits or am i just weird cause i notice those kind of things i was sitting in the theatre wondering why are they showing this is heart disease going to be parrt of the plot of the movie and what do you know it was