Box-Office Wrap-Up: Aug. 6 – Aug. 8, 2010
The Other Guys Takes the Weekend While Step Up 3-D Gets Mauled!
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| It's looks as though alert commenter Feedback had the best call on the board, but many were close on this title. No production budget has been listed, but I think Step Brothers coming in at $65m and Talladega Nights being delivered at $72m gives us a pretty good indication. If it's around there, The Other Guys will need $150m or so worldwide to bank. A $35.6m opening indicates somewhere around $110m in domestic ticket sales, and the Ferrell brand doesn't travel well overseas. Probably because comedy is so specific to culture. As such, even with the weekend's win this might still be a financial loser, needing residual and DVD sales to push it over the top. Result: $35.6 million My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $30.6 million was $5m off for a percentage error of 14.04%. | |
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My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $17.754 million, which is $0.846m off for a 4.55% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $20.28 million, which is $4.78m off for a 30.84% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $11.683 million, which is $0.583m off for a 5.25% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $11.292 million, which is $0.792m off for a 7.54% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $10.29 million, which is $0.89m off for a 9.47% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $7.367 million, which is $0.467m off for a 6.77% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $5.699 million, which is $0.999m off for a 21.26% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $2.711 million, which is $0.289m off for a 9.63% error.
My rank: Not Ranked
How say you? Any surprises? Happy to see Step Up 3-D fail, even though it wasn't post-production 3-D? Am I off on my take on The Other Guys' financials? Weigh in now, before it's too late!
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The Other Guys started very good, and like Salt, will finish somewhere in the $110-120m range. I think 40/140 was the high end of expectations, so it's fine.
Inception definitely isn't passing IM2 now, but it still has a decent shot at $300-305m. Despicable Me is definitely passing Shrek 4 and could manage $250-255m, unlikely though, but we'll see. TS3 should do 410, and Grown Ups I think will go past The Waterboy, but won't be able to match Big Daddy. TOG hit it too hard.
Dinner for Schmucks should make $70-75m, and that'd be about it. Nothing remarkable. Ouch for Charlie St. Cloud and most movies in limited release.
Overall, no surprises, nope. But next weekend's numbers, I think, are bound to surprise to some degree. It'll be very interesting to see how high all three new movies open.
Step Up needs to step down already. It's obvious that people still care about it, but honestly, who needs a fourth film? Thank god all those who saw The Kids Are All Right can distinguish good film from bad film.
Next week is a tough one to predict. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World has a strong fanbase, but the people who want to see it might also want to see The Expendables. Eat, Pray, Love should emerge as the winner because judging by the past, romantic comedies and dramas always prevail. Eat, Pray, Love should become the Julie and Julia of this year. I'll definitely be seeing Scott Pilgrim next week, though.
I'm looking forward to seeing 'The Kids are Alright' so I'm pleased that it's managed to creep in finally. It may not stay there long, but at least it made it in.
Apart from that, I'd also think that Inception should be pretty on track to make it's likely break even gross of $500 million or so (passing $250 million domestic seems easy at the very least) and with probably strong later DVD/Blu-Ray sales come the time etc I don't see why WB shouldn't end up with some profit.
(Notwithstanding their Harry Potter accounting methods!)
Now the big question is … How much money will raise Scott Pilgrim?
I dunno, I've seen the trailer a couple times and I don't know if I'm not it's target anyway perhaps etc but the trailer just makes the film look terrible.
Literally, I think it's one of the worst trailers I've seen this year.
But I think maybe I'm just not 'getting it'.
Getting 2600+ theaters against expendable's 3000+. It may just be at #2 or #3. I see comic fans frontloading on the 1st week. But it has too little theaters to gain lead. I say Kick-Ass plus minus 5M
Next weekend:
1.Eat Pray Love-$28.9 (N/A)
2.The Other Guys-$20.2 (-43%)
3.The Expendables-$17.8 (N/A)
4.Scott Pilgrim vs. The World-$15.6 (N/A)
=5.Salt-$10.1 (-9%)
=6.Inception-$10 (-46%)
7.The Kids Are All Right-$8.9 (+242%)
8.Dinner for Schmucks-$6.7 (-36%)
9.Toy Story 3-$2 (-33%)
10.Charlie St. Cloud-$1.9 (-60%)
I thought tracking for The Expendables was looking at $30 million plus so far?
Is 'The Kids are Alright' scheduled for a big expansion next weekend?
It's useless to pay attention to this guy's predictions. Every time, he pulls the numbers out of his ass and/or predicts based on his personal opinion of the movies.
WOW. Forgot Step Up 3D. Bump St. Cloud off, slide everything below Salt 1 place, and put it in 5th at $10 million.
Also:
Ignore Laremy! If you're done watching Inception, check out Salt! The twists are better executed!
1. Eat Pray Love
2. The Others Guys
3. Step Up 3D
4. The Expandables
5. Inception
6. Salt
7. Schmucks
8. Despicable Me
9. Charlie St. Cloud
10. Cats and Dogs
You really are joking about those predictions aren't you.
Well, I made minor adjustments.
1. The Expendables
2. Eat Pray Love
3. The Other Guys
4. Step Up 3D
5. Inception
6. Scott Pilgrim
7. Salt
8. Schmucks
9. DM
10. Cats and Dogs
Expendables will likley open somewhere around 50 million next weekend. There really hasn't a good escapist leave your brain at the door movie this summer directed at Men. A-Team dissapointed, Salt was more an effort to nab the female crowd and Inception is too cerebral for that audience.
Yeah, so cerebral that it made $230M in 24 days.
Can you explain this point? Overrated movies can get more money than they deserve. I will hate the Academy forever if they give Inception best picture.
Too cerebral for the crowd that would enjoy The Expendables a little too much is what I meant. There was more appeal to Inception other than it's action set-pieces. My personal favorite of them though was the mombasa chase. Mainly because it was s antithesis of the bombardingly overelaborate ski-chase, and even the zero-g/rotating coridoor fight that I wanted to go on longer then it did. That chase was tight, fast, frantic, and claustrophobic as all hell.
What would be the problem with Inception winning Best Picture?
As far as I'm aware Inception has had rave reviews and it prooved you didn't need to either shoot or post convert films to 3D to make a decent box office hit.
$50 million? You're kidding.
Coming from someone predicting a 242% increase for 'The Kids are Alright'? Are you kidding?
I mean, as good as the reviews for the film are, it retreated by 26% this weekend and hasn't done remotely as well in wide release as it was in limited in terms of PTA.
Where is this scale of reversal coming from?
@Winchester: Coming from someone who doesn't know how to spell the words 'all right'?
I know, I noticed my spelling error after I posted. It's unfortunate.
However, I can remedy mine.
Seriously, $50M is possible. It could even go to $70M like Fast and Furious, then it would bleed and it won't even reach $150M.
I agree with Laremy on Salt. I saw that movie this week and found it to be average at best. I don't know what made Peter Travers and especially Roger Ebert (4 stars?!) give that movie such high praise. People in my theater were actually booing when the credits rolled.
A couple more nuggets – per box office mojo The Other Guys budget is listed at $100 million, so it looks like it's going to need legs to make money and also Inception is up to $477 million global.
Wow. Extreme epic fail w/predictions. You know what, here's my fixed copy of next week's predictions:
1.Eat Pray Love-$28.9 (N/A)
2.The Other Guys-$20.2 (-43%)
3.The Expendables-$17.8 (N/A)
4.Scott Pilgrim vs. The World-$15.6 (N/A)
5.Salt-$10.1 (-9%)
=6.Step Up 3D-$10 (-35%)
=7.Inception-$10 (-46%)
8.Despicable Me-$9.7 (+3%)
9.The Kids Are All Right-$8.9 (+242%)
10.Dinner for Schmucks-$6.7 (-36%)
The budget for Other Guys is 90M, it is on DHD
BoxOfficeMojo lists the budget of The Other Guys at $100m! Can that possibly be correct? If so, this cop buddy movie better have beautiful legs.
Sony know how to sell films globally.
Cases in point:
Angels & Demons made more money than Star Trek.
2012 made more money than New Moon
Talladega Nights made 10 times less overseas than in the US. Sony or not, Ferrell comedies have never translated well in the other countries.
The Expendables will top things off with a good 35 million next weekend. Eat Pray Love will have a decent 20 million, while Scott Pilgrim will make around 15 million. I'd love for Pilgrim to take the weekend, but I don't see it finding a stable audience over the age of 30.
This was a pretty by-the-books weekend, except for possibly Step Up underperforming (I had it at $20 million, but I think I was on the high end). There's definitely been a downturn in 3D, but we'll have to wait until the end of the year when the real 3D blitz hits to see how it's going to go. As I've said before, the one film I think can make (for another year or so at least) or break 3D is Tron. I think all the other 3D in Nov-Dec is either animated or post-converted; Tron will be the one that answers a lot of questions. If it does 70-80% 3D, it will be here to stay for at least another couple years. If it does poorly (around the 50-60% this summer's films have done) we may see the end of this useless gimmick…or this stage of it at least.
An interesting side-note on 3D…two theatres in my area dropped Toy Story this week while keeping worse-performing films like The Sorcerer's Apprentice, Ramona and Beezus, The Last Airbender, and Grown Ups. Both of those films are past their two-week points that theatres are generally required to hold them for. Also, neither of these theatres ever offered Toy Story only in 2D. They simply ran out of 3D screens, so rather than keeping it in 2D, they booted it while keeping WORSE PERFORMING 2D-only films. That's the level theatres are going to to force 3D down our throats. And of course the generic, stamp machine multiplex kings Regal and AMC are leading the charge in this.
Next week will be very interesting to predict. I'm stoked for The Expendables, but could easily see it bombing. I'll see Scott Pilgrim mainly because of the positive reviews and Edgar Wright; Michael Cera is quickly wearing out his welcome with me by playing the exact same character in every single film, and overall it just looks kinda stupid (but then again so did Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz and I love those). Also, it looks like a polar opposite of Kick-Ass (which is still one of the year's best films in my opinion). That film brutally satirizes the whole notion of superheroes and the pseudo-porn comic book culture, while this looks to be openly embracing it. I'm just basing that on what I've seen; I haven't read the comic so anyone who has who thinks it does something different feel free to correct me. But I also think it will end up around $15 million or less. Eat Pray Love is probably the safe bet then, but honestly I'm starting to think this will be like Memorial Day or June 4, when a lackluster group of new films allowed Shrek to threepeat, so I'm kind of feeling The Other Guys winning again with around $20 million. Which makes the following weekend even more interesting, with more films opening that have even less appeal.
I am going to pay attention to the reviews for next weekend. Eat Pray Love and Scott Pilgrim seem to be locks for critical praise come next Friday.
Spoke too quickly on Airbender; only one of the two theatres I mentioned still has it and they dropped it to 2D before they dropped Toy Story. But its 3D percentage has been lower that Toy Story's.
But each theater is different. Some will have more people than the national average going to see Toy Story at thier theater, and some will have less. That's why a dropping theater count doesn't always mean much less revenue nationally. Because the theaters that were empty dropped it because they didn't have many people at their particular theater. E.G., a movie in the suburbs might have a different clientel than a movie in the city center, or a theater in Los Angeles might have a different clientel than a theater in Billings, Montana.
Speaking of Regal: I don't know what their customer penetration is for people having their loyalty card, but I've begun to wonder if it will affect which movies a theater will drop. Since they ask for their card when you purchase concessions, they must know which films are bringing in more concessions. In the future, if we want our favorite movie to stay in theaters, will we have to buy more popcorn than another movie's customers?
Next week will be very interesting indeed. I expect The Expendables to be number one, but Eat Pray Love could also suprise and top the weekend. I feel that unfortunately Scott Pilgrim will get left in the dust because it has no room to breathe being jammed between 2 such gender, agressive, pulling movies except maybe for teens.
:My Predictions:
1. The Expendables – $31.7M
2. Eat Pray Love – $26.8M
3. Scott Pilgrim – $16.5M
"I feel gooooood"
Hell yeah, I got a mention. Woo! My call was close for The Other Guys, but I got a bingo with #9's Toy Story's 2.9 million.
Still, I sucked at predicting a huge fall for Salt and a rise for Ramona and Beezus, but in my defense, I didn't know theaters would drop Ramona and Beezus so much this weekend after it doing so well during the weekdays.
Anyway, I have a question. Won't this number change after tonight's added ticket sales?
Are theaters without 3D screens going ahead with a non-3D version of Step Up?
I'm asking because Step Up is playing in only about 2400 screens while The Other Guys has 3700 and Inception has 3400. I think it did pretty damn well with the few screens that it got. Its actually #2 in Average gross per screen with about $6400 only behind The Other Guys' $9751.
Probably if theaters without 3D would have added Step Up to their line-up, it would have done better.
"…quoting Ebert and Rolling Stone." Shouldn't that be the Chicago Sun-Times and Rolling Stone? Or Ebert and Peter Travers? Please don't try to assign any coolness points to Peter Travers. One of the most intellectually infantile, inconsistent, and thoughtless critics in America, whose job could basically be handled by a two year old. If movie critics ever get together and formed a professional association with some professional standards, then Travers won't get their certification. Whether you agree or disagree with Roger Ebert, he will actually give you REASONS for liking of not liking a film.
People have known this for years. He only has a job because he is quotable.
I'd just like to say I totally agree with that statement. He gives good reviews to movies with good buzz and bad reviews to movies with bad buzz, and has a very condescending tone in his reviews like he is better and knows more than everyone else. He is essentially Hollywood's hand puppet.
Um, there is a Broadcast Film Critics Association… they even give out awards every year… which RopeofSilicon covers every year… yeah
That's not professional. They gave an 85 to The Blind Side!
And the Academy nominated it for an Oscar.
Maybe we're the ones being unprofessional by calling it a mediocre movie… (I personally hated the movie)
Do they have a statement of professional standards and certify critics as meeting those standards, and deny or even cancel membership to critics that fail to live up to those standards? If not then they are not truly a professional organization, like the engineering, medical, etc. professional organizations. I'll google them, though.
My method was good, but my math was bad for estimating Zac Efron's weekend percentage drop. This is bad. In fact it's the complete opposite of Laremy's comment about Inception, and puts a lot of pressure on him to perform better in his upcoming studio films, especially The Lucky One (another Nicholas Sparks film).
Scott Pilgrim is going to be a HUGE bomb. I doubt if it will make 10 million next week and it will be lucky to get to 20 million overall.
If Kick-Ass can only make 50 million no way os Scott Pilgram gonna manage to do even half of that..
Next Week:
1.The Expendables-$36.8
2.Eat Pray Love-$31.9
3.The Other Guys-$17.9
4.Inception-$11.4
5.Despicable Me-$7.8
6. Scott Pilgrim vs. The World-$7.6
7.Salt-$7.1
8.Dinner for Schmucks-$6.2
9.Step Up 3D-$6.1
10. The Kids Are All Right-$2.4
I think Scott Pilgrim is going to do better for a couple of reasons.
1. More audience friendly concept
2. More Star power (Michael Cera's had a rough patch but I think the character is a good balance between something new and what we like about him.)
3. More modest expectations
4. People underestimate just how passionate and established the fanbase is. (While Kick-Ass comics only technically came as a result of the movie.)
5. Inception proved that people want something more distinctive which the marketing has showcased over Kick-Ass looking more like cheap-ass Spider Man
I think it will be a big sleeper hit and will out gross The Expendables and Eat Pray Love in the long run.
Interested what next weekend looks like. Expendables looks like a mindless action flick, Eat Prey Love looks to be a mindless chick flick they we have seen before.
1.) Expendables – $45M – It could go higher, as it leaves a mark with action fans. Even looking at the last names of people I don't even know makes me interested to watch it. Although I think it would bleed fast. This is poised to break-even at least
1.) Expendables – $45M – It could go higher, as it leaves a mark with action fans. Even looking at the last names of people I don't even know makes me interested to watch it. Although I think it would bleed fast. This is poised to break-even at least
2.) Scott Pilgrim – $20M – Will battle Eat pray Love but it ranks 4th on the number of theaters. Will need help from the comic fans and considering it will be released weeks after Comic Con will definitely frontload this pic. I don't see this winning great financially. But it will leave a good memory. At least I think it would.
3.) Eat, Pray, Love – $19M – This I think will beat Scott Pilgrim but I hate Jessica Parker so much that I don't want this to go any higher. I think this could even make $25M+, but I hope not. Just give a couple million for Scott, will ya?
4.) Other Guys – $17M – This could bleed small, but heavy competition will give it a 45% drop.
What does Sarah Jessica Parker have to do with Eat Pray Love?
I cant believe so many people are predicting a near 20 million weekend for Scott Pilgram. I really enjoy Edgar Wright ( i Love Hot Fuzz) and I will eventually Netflix Scott Pilgram but what little I have heard from people say that it looks stupid. I think we are talking about a bomb near Jonas Hex levels. Hopefully it didnt cost very much to make.
Updated Worldwide Numbers now put inception at over 478 million dollars. Amazing.
In theory, theaters would have to drop the theater counts on everything from Despicable Me to Shrek about 40% just to accomodate the new releases friday. Clearly that won't happen. They will reduce the screen times of some movies, like Schmucks, and they will have to keep more family films in order to offer a variety to their customers. Charlie St. Cloud would keep more locations, but multiplexes might choose Twilight instead. It will be very interesting to see what happens.
next friday 1-scott pilgrim vs the world 2-the expandables 3-inception 4-dinner for shumcks 5-other guys 6-step up 3d 4-eat prey love