Box-Office Wrap-Up: Aug. 27 – Aug. 29, 2010
COMMENTS
Last Exorcism takes the crown and two films crack $20m on a slow box office weekend!
The top twelve couldn't break $100m this weekend, we're clearly in that gap between summer and Oscar contenders. Still, a few people made it out to the cinema, in their memory we'll break this thing down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks In A Row
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| You're not going to do much better than Nick's $21.2m call, both of us correctly saw it taking the weekend. Avatar continued the rerelease trend of not cracking the top ten — it remains too difficult to capture people's attention with an older product. I had it 11th, and it looks like it will finish there with only one out of every 600 Americans buying a ticket. Alert commenter JM had a nice breakdown of Avatar's $5k per theater expectations in Thursday's column if you were looking for supplemental reading material. Vince (Not Vance) had the budget here at $1.5m, which seems crazy low even for a production budget. They spent a little marketing, sure, but this will be a nice win for Lionsgate, and we can certainly expect at least one more "Last" Exorcism. Now, the rest of the money had to go somewhere and that somewhere was … Result: $21.3 million My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $22.12 million was $0.82m off for a percentage error of 3.85%. | |
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2. Takers
Wow. Only one commenter, the tastefully named Chuck Bartowski, even had this hitting $20m. But it did just that, proving the tracking was garbage on this particular film. This was clearly a spontaneous decision for most folk, ticket buyers bored and looking for something to do.
Result: $21 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $12.133 million, which is $8.867m off for a 42.22% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $12.133 million, which is $8.867m off for a 42.22% error.
Reading Sly Stallone's new Twitter feed, and realizing he doesn't know the difference between you're and your was … dispiriting.
Result: $9.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $9.768 million, which is $0.268m off for a 2.82% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $9.768 million, which is $0.268m off for a 2.82% error.
I'm not going to beat myself up over $23,000. I was off around one purchased ticket per theater.
Result: $7 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $7.023 million, which is $0.023m off for a 0.33% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $7.023 million, which is $0.023m off for a 0.33% error.
Five for five and you know we're alive! Bonus trivia question: anyone see Mesrine? I liked that one.
Result: $6.6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $6.052 million, which is $0.548m off for a 8.3% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $6.052 million, which is $0.548m off for a 8.3% error.
The budget is listed at $20m, which is boggling, because you just need lights and a camera to shoot these things.
Result: $5.3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $5.832 million, which is $0.532m off for a 10.04% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $5.832 million, which is $0.532m off for a 10.04% error.
7. Inception
Now would be the PERFECT time to rerelease Inception!
Result: $5.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $5.068 million, which is $0.032m off for a 0.63% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $5.068 million, which is $0.032m off for a 0.63% error.
Nanny McPhee clearly only returned to spoil my top ten. Kind of a jerk move if you ask me.
Result: $4.7 million
My rank: Not Ranked
My rank: Not Ranked
9. The Switch
I may become a professional Switch predictor. Less than three percent off is nice.
Result: $4.6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $4.736 million, which is $0.136m off for a 2.96% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $4.736 million, which is $0.136m off for a 2.96% error.
10. Piranha 3D
Extremely frontloaded, the biggest dipper of the weekend. Congrats to the entire Piranha team!
Result: $4.3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $5.504 million, which is $1.204m off for a 28% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $5.504 million, which is $1.204m off for a 28% error.
How say you? Any more insights into this weekend? Were you one of the chosen ticket buyers? Comment now, while there's still time!
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I did see Mesrine actually, thought it was a bit uneven but a dynamite performance by Vincent Cassel. It's not even remotely entertaining as he's an utterly despicable character, so I can't see myself rewatching it, but I'll probably try and seek out part two.
This weekend was allegedly close at the top, but I think Sony did some serious numbers fudging with Takers. They have it pulling a Saturday increase, which seems extremely unlikely given the nature of the film and the terrible reviews. I guess we'll see how it pans out when the actuals come out tomorrow afternoon.
Next weekend Going the Distance *should* have little trouble taking the weekend, though the R-rating will hurt it. It's possible it will only manage $15 million or so, which might open the door for The American, but that's doubtful, so I'll probably go with it winning handily with around $20 million (The American's Wednesday opening shouldn't hurt it much as it doesn't seem to be a frontloaded type of film). And Machete will bomb harder than Grindhouse, but you can bet that I'll be there opening day. I loved Grindhouse and I'm mightily looking forward to this.
What would they fudge it with though? The Other Guys and Eat Pray Love had perfectly normal drops, even if Takers got fudged, it still couldn't be with more than $1 million.
Well since these are estimates, they can just estimate high. They're not dealing with real dollars yet since the actual dollar numbers aren't in, they're just dealing with audience reports from Friday, more abbreviated audience reports from Saturday filled out with adjustments based on similar films, and just the latter for Sunday.
IDK, Ice Cube movies open bigger on saturday, and six out of eight Tyler Perry produced films have had a saturday increase. And so did Death At A Funeral.
Anyone ever notice how more urban marketed films like Takers generally track poorly and then always manage to surprise even the most bullish box-offce prognosticators? Interesting isn't it? Takers will probably fall quite a bit by next weekend though. Exoricsm of Emily, I mean Last Exorcism will probably take a quite a hit as well. Word of mouth on the film wasn't particuarly good from what I've gathered. With the difference between both Exorcism and Takers being so little I wouldn't be shocked if the latter took the crown this weeknd when final figures are tallied tomorrow.
Avatar, which finished just outside of the top-ten, will likley add another 15 or maybey 20 million to it's domestic total. That's probably a little too much credit for it, and while I have not seen the extended version, die hard painted blue fanboy friends that I know have raved about it. That is all nine minutes off additional footage.
Expendables should have a good shot at the 100 million threshhold and Inception will come up just several mill shy of the 300 million milestone. As for next weekend it's the first weekend in Spetember, which means business will be as weak as the products that are being offered. I'm giving The American around 18 million for the weekend as it's marketing has been pretty hefty for the past couple of weeks.
Urban audiences aren't that predictable I guess.
And the next weekend is also Labor Day weekend, so the openings should be decent and drops should be good. The weekend after that, though – that's when it's going to be bad.
Could the positions of the top two reverse once finals are known?
I think probably Going the Distance should take next weekend as well.
I agree. I don't know much about how they estimate on Sunday, but just looking at Fridays numbers, "Takers" won Saturday easy, and if people did not see "Exorcism" on Saturday, a lot less will see it Sunday.
From EW…
"If you trust the exit polling, "The Last Exorcism" was universally despised by audiences. According to CinemaScore, the film generated a D with audiences. Not even the younger crowd, which is usually more accepting of movies, could muster more than a failing grade for the documentary-style thriller. "Takers" fared better, earning a B from audiences, with women younger than 25 enjoying the film the most."
I see Takers winning now, with such bad WOM.
I've never seen the exact questionaire that Cinemascore uses, so it's hard to say what that "D" might mean. If they ask to "rate the movie", people could give it a "D" and still be satisfied with their purchase. If they ask to "rate your moviegoing experience" then a "D" would be devastating. All I know is that a girl from work not only saw the movie with her sisters, she insisted on following me around and telling me about the entire movie. The kicker is that they are Muslim.
Wow, Eat Pray Love seems to have a little staying power. I guess it figures since the target audience for that film is a bit older. I wonder, how does someone screw up tracking? I understand it's not an exact science but was there an particular audience overlooked or something?
Solid openings for both openers, but obviously TLE had a pretty terrible multiplier over the weekend. It's gonna fall BIG next week. Also nice hold for TE and it looks like still has a shot at $100M+ afterall. As for Takers especially I never understood why people were underestimating it. The movie had a great marketing campaign and a big cast. They were even giving out free passes on radio stations to early screenings since the beginning of August and the buzz seemed to explode from then on.
I saw no real marketing for the film except that horrendous excuse for a poster that was released early this year.
I guess they'd been hyping this movie for a while. I had gotten invited to see a sneak preview of the film…in January. I skipped it solely because of the poster (oh and the cast as well and that weak trailer) but that was months ago. Sony basically dumped this film and somehow it made money. I'm assuming people who were PO'd at the ending of Last Exorcism (or people who don't like horror movies) went to see this as solace. But whatever, good on Sony, they're having a solid summer so far- every film they've released has been a hit in some way or another.
Next week seems about as horrible as last weekend was. Going the Distance could take it, but Drew Barrymore and Justin Long have never brought in the big bucks. Machete will bomb and The American will probably do as well as George Clooney's last few movies (opening in low to mid 10 million range).
Also… Yay I was mentioned in the article!
Going the Distance will win next weekend. Machete will win on Saturday. The American will win on Wednesday. It's a win-win-win situation.
Congratulations Laremy, for your excellent call of $100 million for the weekends top twelve. Actual studios weekend estimates: $97.524 million. Nice.
mfan, you should know by now that this space is only used for bashing me. :)
Great hold for Inception, I predicted $4.9m and actually thought it was a bit optimistic. Loss of IMAX and all. It could see sub-10% drop next weekend (sub-20% drop is 99% happening), and is definitely on track to 290-295. I really hope it crawls its way to 300.
Expendables should hit 98-103, 100 still not guaranteed. Great for The Other Guys. Very, very good PTA hold for Scott Pilgrim; maybe it won't lose THAT much theaters next weekend. DM got hit pretty badly, I think 250 is an extremely outside chance now; more like 242-245. Good increase for Get Low, I hope SPC gets it into an even wider release.
Great openings for both new movies. Have to wonder, though, how hard TLE gets hit next weekend considering the bad WOM.
Yeah. It seems that viewers are opposite of critics with Duplicity, Greenberg, Splice, and now The Last Exorcism.
250 million isn't quite out of reach for Despicable Me. 300 million may be just outside of Inceptions grasp. I'm sure though that Warners might give the film re-release in the states this winter during awards season. There'll be enough fanboy interest during it's second running to likley push it just past 300 mill.
TAKERS "This was clearly a spontaneous decision for most folk, ticket buyers bored and looking for something to do."
Clearly? Now why would you think that? I think it's just that people really underestimated the popular appeal of the cast and production wasn't too shabby. I really enjoyed it.
There seemed to be a lot of excitement for the movie for the last month on Twitter and this weekend the tweets went a little crazy. It was well marketed and believe it or not some people have been looking forward to it and had actual plans to see it opening weekend. No, I hardly think it was the result of boredom or a spontaneous decision. People had an interest in seeing Takers.
Because the tracking didn't indicate any awareness of the product. Thus, clearly.
Box Office Mojo's final numbers give the weekend to Takers with TLE a couple hundred thousand dollars behind.
Whether it was 'clearly spontaneous' or not – it paid off for the film in the end.
1.The American-$19.2 (N/A)
2.Machete-$18.7 (N/A)
3.The Last Exorcism-$15.3 (-25%)
4.Going the Distance-$15.3 (N/A)
5.Takers-$10.2 (-51%)
6.The Other Guys-$4.5 (-32%)
7.The Expendables-$4 (-58%)
8.Eat Pray Love-$3.9 (-44%)
9.Inception-$3.8 (-26%)
10.Get Low-$2.5 (+47%)
The American has very few showings Wed. and Thursday. So The American might have a tough time making $10M over the weekend.
That doesn't make sense.
Your 2 week streak is over, as Takers taked the weekend and killed the exorcism :D