Box-Office Wrap-Up: Apr. 9 – Apr. 11, 2010
COMMENTS
Date Night over Clash of the Titans in a squeaker!
It looks like 75 percent of you were right, Date Night seems to have held off Clash of the Titans. We knew it would be close, and it was, with Date Night evidently pulling out the victory by less than 50k tickets sold.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
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| I think Joker had the closest call on the board, though he had it finishing in second too. Date Night won the per theater average race, even though it spotted Clash of the Titans 400+ theaters, not to mention the 3-D considerations. Perhaps this is proof positive that you can still make movies without CGI. Financially, this is pretty much what we thought it would be. There are only so many people in the world willing to see this sort of film, but the production budget of $55m means they aren't in bad shape fiscally. Finally, Fey and Carell seem to be decent draws. In the era of celebrity over-saturation "decent" will have to do. Result: $27.1 million My rank: I picked it to finish #2 and my prediction of $26.47 million was $0.63m off for a percentage error of 2.32%. | |
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It fell 1.1 percent more than I figured it would. It's looking at a $150m domestic run, with the international results determining the overall financial health.
Result: $26.8 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #1 with $27.74 million, which is $0.94m off for a 3.51% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #1 with $27.74 million, which is $0.94m off for a 3.51% variance.
It only fell 12.6 percent! That is nice word of mouth. $256m worldwide on a production budget of $165m, so still work to do, but the holdover is really helping.
Result: $25.3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $21.03 million, which is $4.27m off for a 16.88% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $21.03 million, which is $4.27m off for a 16.88% variance.
A 62 percent drop, fairly typical for this level of front-loading. Still, if you can make a film with this appeal for $20m you should get on it.
Result: $11 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $13.18 million, which is $2.18m off for a 19.82% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $13.18 million, which is $2.18m off for a 19.82% variance.
Don't look now but The Last Song fell only 38 percent. Counterargument: that still was the third worst drop of the weekend. Overall, the weekend fell 27 percent from last weekend, and it was slightly worse than April '09 when Hannah Montana took the crown with $32m.
Result: $10 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $7.21 million, which is $2.79m off for a 27.9% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $7.21 million, which is $2.79m off for a 27.9% variance.
Looks like it will hit $800m in worldwide cume. A win for Disney, and Tim Burton is the guest host of this year's Cannes Film Festival. Everything is turning up roses, eh?
Result: $5.6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $3.66 million, which is $1.94m off for a 34.64% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $3.66 million, which is $1.94m off for a 34.64% variance.
I want to throw Craig Robinson out there as a potential lead. He's good in everything he does, The Office, this, and Pineapple Express.
Result: $5.4 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $4.75 million, which is $0.65m off for a 12.04% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $4.75 million, which is $0.65m off for a 12.04% variance.
Why doesn't a film like The Bounty Hunter bank internationally? Is comedy specific to culture? Or are the distribution methods not there?
Result: $4.3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $3.4 million, which is $0.9m off for a 20.93% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $3.4 million, which is $0.9m off for a 20.93% variance.
$53m on a $15m budget. Very nice.
Result: $4.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $2.75 million, which is $1.35m off for a 32.93% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $2.75 million, which is $1.35m off for a 32.93% variance.
10. Letters to God
Clearly, I was too bullish. But considering they spent nada in marketing and the production budget was $3m it might work out for 'em.
Result: $1.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $2.24 million, which is $1.14m off for a 103.64% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $2.24 million, which is $1.14m off for a 103.64% variance.
How say you? Many of y'all had Date Night cracking $30m, did the $27.1m result surprise you? Are people over Clash? And can we expect another strong hold from How to Train Your Dragon? Comment early, comment often.
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I couldn't be happier for Dragon, and while I was off in my Clash prediction by only $75k, I wish it did as little as possible. Nice result for Date Night, but it could have done better. Good for all holdovers.
Meh, Date Night did a bit worse then I expected but still a sold number. However I think that the cast skews older audiences more so I see WOM being decent enough to have some legs until Iron Man 2. As for Clash, better hold then it deserved but compared to Alice, Avatar, How To Train Your Dragon and Up, at least its a sign that someone caught on. I predict the staying power will get worse from here though for that title.
P.S GO Dragon!
Next weekend:
1.Kick-Ass-$35.6 (N/A)
2.Date Night-$18.4 (-32%)
3.Death at a Funeral-$17.2 (N/A)
4.How to Train Your Dragon-$10.8 (-57%)
5.Clash of the Titans-$9.2 (-66%)
6.Why Did I Get Married Too?-$8.7 (-21%)
7.The Last Song-$8.2 (-18%)
8.Alice in Wonderland-$4.2 (-25%)
9.Hot Tub Time Machine-$4 (-26%)
10.The Bounty Hunter-$3.6 (-16%)
I'm really uncertain about Kick-Ass. It will do $18 m for certain. But above that i'm really unable to come out with a figure. $25 m for my estimate.
And i doubt Date Night will have just a 32% drop. It got a B, the same grade as Clash so i'm betting 45-50%.
Death at a Funeral might surprise. Its got Chris Rock, Martin Lawrence, Tracy Morgan so it has a chance of broadening its appeal beyond just blacks and hispanics.
And i doubt Dragons will fall by 57%. Its a family movie. It will still hold well (not as good as this week though)
Hmmm, interesting feedback. To be honest, I'm probably watching it next weekend, and 3rd school period ends, so I assume kids will celebrate by going to see DN. I thought people were WAY too bullish on K-A, so I reduced it in consideration of the heavy, HEAVY R-rating and screens.
Weird numbers. 57% for HTTYD? 66% drop for Clash? Yet Tyler Perry only loses 21%? Sorry, but that's just laughable.
Goodness, do I have to explain this EVERY SINGLE TIME?!!
These are NOT final predictions! And since when was a 66% drop for COOT weird? Please explain.
With only $200,000 separating the top two I'd say this a too-close-to-call weekend, so hold everything until tomorrow afternoon. As I said yesterday, I'm definitely surprised at Date Night's result. I thought $40 million might have been a bit lofty, but I didn't think there was any way in hell that it wouldn't get to $30 million. Maybe Carell and Fey aren't as big draws outside of their respective shows. And Dragon continues to hold ridiculously well. I'll definitely have to see it at some point now, probably not in theatres though.
Next weekend is interesting. Kick-Ass is the safe bet and it will likely only need $30 million to win anyway, which it should be able to pull off. I'm still not convinced it will catch on with the masses. Death at a Funeral seems like it could also get to $30 million (very heavily marketed and looks very funny), but the R rating and the lack of Tyler Perry's name could keep its audience away. And will Dragon break $20 million again next weekend? It has no competition, so I'd say it has a great chance.
Fox usually has pretty good estimates, whereas Warner Brothers is often a little high so I'm predicting the film rankings will stand.
Haven't been here in a while lol (exams). Some points: Was expecting better numbers from Clash these past two weeks. Very much agreed on Craig Robinson – he's hilarious in just about EVERYTHING he does.
Next week, Kick-Ass should win it easily. Won't quite reach Wanted opening numbers but it's definitely got a lot of buzz going for it. Its WOM will have to compete with The Losers and Nightmare eventually – everyone will be scrambling until Iron Man 2 arrives.
I've actually got an on-campus marketing job with Lionsgate/Maple Pictures now and have been promoting the hell out of Kick-Ass. Definitely thinking it'll need some better-than-average WOM to take it over-the-top (especially if a sequel is already possible).
Kick Ass has more buzz than Date Night, though Date Night had the frame all to itself.
Am I the only one who thinks Date Night is in trouble? It's has strong competition going forward. I'm feeling both Kick Ass, and Death at a Funeral will be able to make it drop 10% more than it normally would each. And shouldn't it be frontloaded, regardless, since it was such a star driven vehicle? Matthew says B on cinemascore. And I will be waiting to see proof that it can make much overseas also. It should do well in the Home market, though.
The cast from Death at a Funeral has a collective star power I haven't seen since Valentines Day. Are people underestimating it?
Yeah, I think people are underestimating "Death at a Funeral" a ton. The people that are set out to watch this don't care about the original film (sorry guys, I know a ton of people who LOVE the original movie). But there's a likable (and mainstream!) cast there, plus the trailers look like the film could be surprisingly OK for what it is. I don't think it'll do "Valentine's Day" numbers, especially since it's catering to a specific audience (mostly young African-American and Latino moviegoers), plus it has that R-rating, but I would not be surprised if it pulls off a debut in the high 20s/low 30s.
With the sex themed hijinks I saw in it's trailer, I think this will be the go to movie for dating, assuming it's advertising get's the word out.
It doesn't have an R-rating yet. DAAF could appeal. But it's not likely to happen, so I don't know why I'm mentioning this…
DATE NIGHT- Although it didn't hit as nice as numbers as Get Smart- 27 mil for a romantic action comedy with a budget of 55 mil is very nice. I expect its final cume to be around 75 mil. I don't see it as a disappointment, it could of done better, it could of done worse.
CLASH OF THE TITANS- For such a poorly reviewed movie and bad WOM a final cume of 150 mil is pretty good. It will hit its budget of 125 mil and with international numbers with almost double its 125 budget.
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON- WOW! You know with such a weak opening this is turning out to be a success like Alvin and the Chipmunks.
1st weekend-ALVIN: 44mil HTTYD: 43 mil
2nd weekend-ALVIN: 28 mil (-36%) HTTYD: 29 mil. (-33%)
3rd weekend- ALVIN: 29 mil (+3) HTTYD: 25 mil. (-12%)
at this rate it could end in the early 200 mil. GREAT NUMBERS! We definetly out do COT.
NEXT WEEK:
KICK-ASS: I am getting mixed feelings about Kick-Ass. Heavy R RATED and weird plot I don't see it doing as hot.
DEATH AT A FUNERAL: R rating will hurt it but good trailers and funny actors. 20 mil?
DATE NIGHT: I see this holding on with a GOOD WOM. 15 mil?
I hope KA takes number 1 next week, but I'm not betting on it. As much as I want it to succeed I really think people should have leveled expectations for it. The fact that it's R rated, has a strange plot and is being marketed by Lionsgate are all very strong negatives. As we already saw eariler this year with FPWL Lionsgate is not good at marketing action films even if the action looks good and just because KA has a crap load of positive internet hype doesn't mean it will be the same hit with the masses. DAAF could easily surpass it due to being more of a easy sell to mainstream audience and the cast is great.
:My Prediction:
1.KA – $24M
2.DAAF – $23M
3.DN – $15M
The college kids I talk to want to see Kick Ass, but I'm thinking they might go to Death at a Funeral if they have a date.
I say it's gonna be:
1.Kick-Ass-48 m.- Many college kids and adults wanna see this. It has also received rave reviews so far.
2.Death at a Funeral-25 m.-The adults who are not interested in Kick-Ass will go see this.
3.Clash of the Titans-21 m.-This is the obvious choice that teens will go see. Kick-Ass and Death at a Funeral are both R so this is the obvious choice for teens.
4.How To Train Your Dragon-19 m.-This is the only choice for kids. The ones who haven't seen it, will.
5.Date Night-17.8 m.-I know, I know it's a risky call. But I see it dropping a lot. Kick-Ass and Death at a Funeral will take in the adults and start shutting this one DOWN.
6.The Last Song-9 m.-The teen girls will go see this. There is just nothing else they would be interested in.
7.Why Did I Get Married Too?-7.5 m.- With Kick-Ass, Death at a Funeral, Date Night, and Clash of the Titans out his really doesn't have a big chance in going anywhere with adults.
8.Alice in Wonderland- 6 m.-Kid's who haven't seen might see it. I think we'll say goodbye to this in 1-2 weeks.
9.Diary of A Wimpy Kid-3 m.-This has had a very nice run. It has a big profit already because the budget was only 15 m.
10.Hot Tub Time Machine-1 m.- With all the other comedies that are gonna be out, this is OVER!
I like your analysis of the upcoming weekend, but not necessarily your numbers. For example, how is a 34.3% drop for Date Night considered a big drop? The Bounty Hunter had a 42% drop. I just don't see a scenario where Why Did I Get Married falls less than 50%. You will be my hero if The Last Song can only lose one million dollars worth of box office, but that's a stretch even for a big fan like me. Etc.
The guy also predicts that Alice will rise. I'm sorry, but what a joke.
Sorry Mfan. By dropping a lot I meant dropping many spots. I mean from #2 to #5
My apologies about The Last Song. I did find one similar film with some 12% and 13% drops. The Notebook.
next week kick ass #1 @ $40. I want to see hot tub time machine so bad
I'm pretty sure Kick-Ass will make it to $30 million opening and will have excellent legs after that.
Looks like you can chalk that up into a W after all, Laremy. BOM's Actuals released today:
1. Clash of the Titans – $26,633,209
2. Date Night – $25,207,599
3. How to Train Your Dragon – $24,863,535
Boom! I'll take it.
Well, I guess Laremy's streak is alive!
I'm sorry for the inconvenience Nick! We all make mistakes sometimes. There is no need to call my prediction a JOKE! I'll revise my Alice prediction!
8.Alice in Wonderland-4.5 m.
My projected most profitable films of 2010 released so far(theatrical only)
1. Alice in Wonderland $780 millon on a $200 million budget
2. How to Train Your Dragon $283m on $165m budget so far
3. Valentines Day $214m on a $52m
4. Shutter Island $246 on $80
5. The Last Song $44 on $20 while just beginning it's overseas run
6. Dear John $91 and counting on $25 million. Still in the beginnings of it's overseas run.
7. Clash of the Titans $229 on $125 so far
8. Diary of a Wimpy kid $53 million on $15 million
9. Percy Jackson $220 million from $95 million
10. Why Did I Get Married Too $48.5 on $20 so far; no significant overseas money expected
11. My Name is Khan $37 million worldwide for an indie film; no budget information
Neither does this list take P&A into account which is more for the hoped for blockbusters e.g. Clash, and Percy. The home market is another story entirely.
I should have looked at this list longer after sorting. The Last Song will edge out Shutter Island with a projected $130 minimum worldwide, for the fourth most profitable film so far this year.
Update: I guess I should have walked away and then come back to this list. Shutter Island still has a little bit of it's overseas run left which will put in neck and neck with The Last Song.