Box-Office Wrap-Up: Apr. 24 – Apr. 26, 2009
COMMENTS
Obsessed triumphs on the last weekend of little movies.
Whoa. As it turns out, it was only the sixth worst weekend of the year. The top twelve cleared $104m, my projections were way too low. But the big news was the movie at the top, so let's break it down.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Week In A Row
1. Obsessed
It can't catch Basic Instinct or Fatal Attraction, but it will pass all the other erotic thrillers on the board. It should end somewhere around $60m domestically. It'll do even better internationally, but not until June, so let's call it $140m total on a production budget of $20m. Cha-ching.
Result: 28.5 million (My rank: #1, $16.5m off)
2. 17 Again
17 Again will hit $40m on Monday, which means we can expect a few hundred more tween films in 2010.
Result: 11.6 million (My rank: #2, $1.3m off)
3. Fighting
Definitely a stronger title than I thought, but nowhere near as strong as Step Up which opened at $20m. Evidently people like their Channing dancing as opposed to fighting.
Result: 11.4 million (My rank: #5, $4.0m off)
4. The Soloist
This remains one of the strangest releases in recent history, put out in the dead zone of April. I would have released it on December 5th, hyped it as an Oscar film, and gone up against Cadillac Records, Punisher, and Four Christmases for box-office supremacy. And I woulda won.
Result: 9.7 million (My rank: #3, $.6m off)
5. Earth
You guys had me worried on Thursday with the Earth predictions. Luckily, this was what I thought it was. Still, they've made $80m on the international markets, so this is all gravy.
Result: 8.55 million (My rank: #4, $.45m off)
It was helped out by the release schedule, no family films, and thus only dropped 36 percent. It also cleared $300m in total receipts this weekend, a nice result for a first quarter film.
Result: 8.52 million (My rank: #9, $3.2m off)
Must have been hurt by The Soloist. People didn't know which newspaper film they were supposed to support.
Result: 6.8 million (My rank: #6, $.5m off)
No production budget has been released… but I don't think hay and tractors cost too much. I figured that 58 percent bleed couldn't continue, and it didn't.
Result: 6.3 million (My rank: #8, $0.2m off)
I expected it to do a little better. Still, $289m total and still cruising.
Result: 6.0 million (My rank: #7, $.8m off)
A 65 percent drop. Verdict: people don't care about Crank 2.
Result: 2.4 million (My rank: #10, $0.9m off)
Any early Wolverine predictions for next weekend? The last X-Men opened at $100m and this one is getting 4,000 theaters. Will Ghost of Girlfriends Past rack up as counter programming? I don't see anything for Terra but I'm willing to listen.
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i think it will be around 90-110 million..but the super buzz could help it garner more..
I think Wolverine will open in the mid to high 80's.
It's outselling Iron Man, so I'm gonna say 122.7 million. Hold me to it.
I'm saying high 90's- low 100's, just because prequels rarely do as well as original films box office wise, plus this looks like just another "X-Men" movie, not a huge must-see event, but being another X-Men movie is an event in itself for people, so it'll open well.
"Ghosts" will open well I think, there hasn't been a big romantic comedy like this since "Shopaholic" a while ago, plus the leads often do well in this genre (let's ignore "Catch and Release" shall we?), so mid 20 million for the film, followed by decent if not long legs.
Terra= 8million. Sorry, looks like junk, sci-fi animated films always bomb (For every "Wall-E" there's 10 "Space Chimps"', "Final Fantasy"' and "Star Wars: The Clone Wars"), the only thing it has going for it is the 3D showings…
Oh, just a comment because it was mentioned in the column; saw "The Soloist" and I agree, it totally could've done better had it been released in December; it has the likable leads and the interesting subject matter that would've made the film a bigger success.
However, I have to say that America was right in (somewhat) ignoring the film; it's not terrible but it's completely uneven and uninspired. Very, very disappointed considering all the talent behind the flick.
$107 million! Thursday midnight to sunday night
Wolverine… it could open anywhere from $75-$120 million… but because it seems like so many films are over-achieving this year, I'm going to say around $105 million
I can see Wolverine making about 85-90 mllion. Girlfriends Past about 30 million.
does anyone know how much wolverine is spending on marketing? i know it has to be alot because everytime i turn on the TV i see hugh jackman looking pissed w/ claws coming out of his hand.
I saw Crank 2 this weekend. I enjoyed it, but why would Jason Statham do that movie? The first one was weird enough, but OMG. He's proven to be a fine actor, but how can he get good roles like "The Bank Job" after that performance.
"Wolverine" will get $75-100 million.
"Ghosts of Girlfriends Past" will succeed at counterprogramming and rack up $15-20 million.
"Battle for Terra," opening only on 1000 screens with very little advertisement, will be lucky to get past $5 million.
Yeah, this weekend was totally unpredictable so I didn't even bother to try.
As for next weekend… I'm thinking WOLVERINE will make $85+ million but not much over $101 million. GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST will make $24-27 million.. the usual for that type of run-of-the-mill high-concept chick flick. And I honestly thought BATTLE FOR TERRA would be promoted much more by now but I've seen nothin'. I'll keep it at $8 million for now.
:]
Wolverine has got to hit the 100 million mark… i wud say something around 110mil