Box-Office Wrap-Up: Apr. 2 – Apr. 4, 2010
Clash of the Titans wins... but did it also lose?
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| A massive Easter Sunday dip is predicted, with the film only projected to bring in $13m on Sunday. Was this a refutation of 3-D? Or is a $61m April opening impressive for a film without massive stars? One thing is sure, with $125m production budget, Clash of the Titans still has plenty of work to do. A $60m opening usually equates to somewhere around a $180m overall (domestic), so Clash will need some international dollars to roll in. Any thoughts on how it will do in other regions? My guess is plenty of people chose 2-D over 3-D here, or perhaps they just didn't have enough 3-D saturation to get a boost. It also wasn't a great movie, word of mouth might have tailed off as the weekend progressed. Perhaps the NCAA Tournament derailed it a smidgen, or maybe no one is into gods and monsters these days. With that, I think I'm officially out of theories. Result: $61.4 million My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $83.09 million was $21.69m off for a percentage error of 35.33%. | |
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My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $21.55 million, which is $8.55m off for a 28.41% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $26.24 million, which is $2.96m off for a 10.14% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $21.38 million, which is $5.18m off for a 31.98% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $8.81 million, which is $0.61m off for a 7.44% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $7.76 million, which is $0.24m off for a 3% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $7.47 million, which is $1.27m off for a 20.48% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $4.85 million, which is $0.65m off for a 11.82% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $1.95 million, which is $0.487m off for a 33.29% variance.
My rank: Not Ranked
How say you? Did you see anything this weekend? Do you think the message has been sent regarding postproduction 3-D? Or is $60m enough to ensure that we're looking at a slew of cheapo conversions? Comment early and often!
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Clash did lose, but only a bit. It's still a nice success, or a lock to be one – even though with that WOM $160-165 million is the most it can hope for, but if you add at least $200 million overseas and DVD sales – WB isn't going to have anything to complain about. Frankly, personally I wish it flopped badly. Not because it was a bad movie – I haven't even seen it yet. Just to teach WB a good lesson. I HATE that they decided to post-convert their every film in 3-D, just because of Avatar's success, and called it "a new standard". I can't believe Alan Horn could be so goddamn dumb. Thank God Nolan would never let them screw with Inception.
As far as other movies go, I nearly nailed Last Song and Dragon (don't care for the former, want the latter to make as much as possible), I desperately want Alice to die (the only movie that was less deserving of making over $300 million is Transformers 2), and I wonder why Shutter Island fell so hard despite this being a holiday weekend. Though it still made more overall than I ever hoped, and I'm very happy for it.
Wasn't there some talk a while back about how Tyler Perry really wanted to pursue some other projects besides his usual mid-level hit films, but the films were just too lucrative? Looks like he made the right decision.
Blinded by my Cyrus colored glasses, I couldn't force myself to see that there would be no Hannah Montana/The Last Song audience crossover. So now I'm down to saying things like, "Well she almost doubled the opening weekend gross of Angelina Jolie's last drama, opened with about
what Robert Pattinson's movie has made so far in total, and that it would be awesome if she could possibly combine both of her audiences in a film like her in-developement project, Wings. I always thought Hannah fans would turn out, but the movie was edgier than I was thinking. At least a probable $70 million result will be seen as solid. And this helps prove that Miley is a good role model, as Hannah fans didn't ignore their parents, and go to her movie anyway. And at least nobody will have to hear any more about Miley from me until her next movie breaks, which hasn't even begun filming yet. Nick had the best prediction.
Assuming how much you LOVE Miley, if you saw The Last Song how was it?
Well, if I LOVE Miley, that would be like asking a parent how his child did in the school play. To me, the movie was great! Miley is lucky enough to be able to surround herself with good people, so her projects will always be at least O.K.
The director tried some things in this movie. She tried to edit the setup scenes in a manner that would suggest the lack of serenity in Miley's character "Ronnie". And as Ronnie opened up, the scenes became …. The movie also bookends Ronnie's arrival, and departure in a way that suggested her growing maturity. There was a circle of life message using the birth of turtles in juxtaposition to….
Very good cinematography, very good costuming, good casting, I am definitely buying the DVD. (There were also closeups of Miley that showed off her large, deep blue eyes, which I never noticed before – really pretty)
My only dissapointment was my previously stated inability to forcast it's box office. You might be able to imagine my hopes for it's box office by adding most of her previous Hannah Montana audience to most of this movies five day gross for a hoped for awesome weekend. I wonder how many DVD's The Last Song will sell? The Hannah movie sold $60 million worth.
Maybe the bottom line message in The Last Song is that there are all kind of things out there that can derail you, but there is also a lot of good. And your most precious possesion is your attitude.
I think that the oversaturation of the 3d market is finally starting to happen with people realising that not all 3d movies will be like Avatar.
Despite this, Clash will most probably still make a profit worldwide as I think it will do pretty decent internationally. But I don't think it will do well enough to warrant a sequel.
WOW ! I completely nailed Clash and now I feel really special LOL!. But, seriously I knew it wouldn't reach the heights most were predicting. The $70-$80M predictions were ridicoulous especiially when you consider that it opened on GF and MOST of the business would be pushed to that day and there was no way it was gonna open and fall small enough to top 300. As for legs I have no idea how it will hold up, but I do know that it needs to make as much money as possible before IM2 comes out and destroys everything in it's way.
Why have the theaters overcrowded the 3D market in the beginning of April? We don't get our next 3D movie until the end of May (Shrek Forever After) and then until June (Toy Story 3). It just seems odd that neither Dreamworks or Warner Bros. chose to move their movie into late-April or early May to avoid 3D competition the week prior and the week after their movies' release. The end of April is devoid of kids releases–Dreamworks could have moved How To Train Your Dragon there and probably gotten a result that was significantly better.
Anyways…
Date Night takes next weekend, because of the broad appeal of Steve Carrell and Tina Fey and the strong advertising campaign its gotten. I say it could even sniff $50 million, if America really wants to see a comedy.
Clash of the Titans will drop like a stone, as will Tyler Perry. The Last Song is probable to do so as well, Nicholas Sparks movies are almost always frontloaded. Unfortunately, How To Train Your Dragon will have to face a typical post-Easter drop, but it should bounce back nicely the weekend of the 16th, with virtually no new competition.
I don't think it will do $50 million. Though COOT will fall like cliff diver next weekend. Can you say 75 percent DROP?
Nah. Very unlikely. It could fall anywhere from 50 to 65%, over that will be surprising.
Not surprised Clash didnt do well. WOM wasnt good for it in my circles.
Wow, I actually did well, my pick at was "So lets say $62M on Titans and $30 on Dragon."
im sick of the 3d craze, i wont be thorwing down money for a 3d ticket until tron next winter, and thats a promise, glad this is the last one for a while though, and im not completely in protest of animated films in 3d, just doesnt add that much
I don't necessarily that Clash of the Titans did bad. 61 mil (and 64 mil as a total) isn't bad. Sure it could go higher but with a budge of 125 mil it will surely hit that number and beyond.
First off, I have to take credit for hitting Dragon dead on (though I missed the spot). I'm sure Warner Bros. would have liked more from Clash, and since it'll likely fall hard next week (I'm thinking 60% or so) they'll likely come up short of $200 million. Also, according to the AP article, 52% of its money came from 3D. That's much less than Avatar, Alice, and Dragon (80, 70, and 70 % respectively). Either it was oversaturation of 3D, or more people stayed away from the converted crap. Hopefully that will continue to be the case moving forward. Dan Fellman at WB says the only person who could see the difference in Avatar's 3D vs. Clash's is a "super-technician." I'm calling bullshit on that one right now, because word of mouth seems to be that the 3D on Clash sucks. But of course he's a studio guy trying to push WB to release every major film in 3D now, so of course he'll say that. Oh, and apparently this was Tyler Perry's second-biggest opening ever after Madea Goes to Jail. I way underestimated him, way overestimated Clash, and was pretty high on The Last Song.
Next week Date Night takes it by default, because Clash will fall to somewhere around $25 million. I'm not sure what kind of numbers Date Night can pull off. Obviously it has the Office/30 Rock demo to pull from (which is huge), and Get Smart was big in '08. I'm thinking $35-45 million.
The Last Song actually had a big upside potential, but parents seem more protective towards their children than when I was younger; when people would take nine year olds to see Jaws. In fact, now that I think about it, when is the last time someone took a baby to the theater? Are babysitters relatively less expensive now? Are people richer?
I hate studios these days, they don't care if the movies touch our hearts, they leave that for the Oscars, while the producers sit there waiting to grab that pile of extra money.
Honestly, I love Worthington and Arterton, but Clash was definitely a movie not for them, after all the issues WB has been through. I just hope they don't ruin the Harry Potter Finale.
$160 total for Clash, HTTYD will grab a lead over them after 3 weeks.
News of the weird:
Robert Pattinson's Remember Me is actually a nice success, as it is doing better overseas than here, and was cheap to make.
Kristen Stewart has one strike against her with The Runaways. But with a successful franchise, will she be given more chances than Hillary Duff's three? (that's after Duff's two mild to mid-level successes)
Amanda Seyfried's success in Dear John is not transfering to her movie Chloe. Perhaps Dear John was all Channing Tatum, Nicholas Sparks, and a near to valentines day (the holiday) release.
Kristen Stewart is already getting all kinds of roles, so I'd say she should be fine at least until after Breaking Dawn is done with. Whether she keeps getting roles seems largely dependent on her acting ability (still a question for me; I still need to see The Runaways and Welcome to the Rileys later in the year), and her box office draw. She seems to be moving toward more artsy/indie type films though, so who knows if she has any money-making ability.
Chloe is a vastly different film from Dear John, so I see little crossover appeal. And its still only playing in around 200 theatres, and most of those are probably art house venues. I doubt it will go much wider.
I agree with Ian. Apples & oranges. Amanda Seyfried is an up-and-coming star for the younger generation, who would be very much disinterested in an erotic "indie" thriller. Not to mention that "Dear John" was a popular Nicholas Sparks novel, as well as Channing Tatum is the bee's knees for teenage girls.
In other news…man, I like Steve Carell (actually, I like Steve Carell pre-2007) and I LOVE Tina Fey, but "Date Night" looks kinda horrible. It seems way too mainstream and conventional for these two feisty, smart, witty comedic actors.
I really like what little I've seen of Tina Fey. And I absolutely loved Steve Carell in The 40-Year-Old Virgin (he's good in Little Miss Sunshine too), but I feel like now he basically just plays slight alterations of Michael Scott. I love The Office, but it's a shame to see him get so typecasted in seemingly everything he does now. I'd love to see him in a hard-R comedy again. I'm on the fence on Date Night based on the trailers, but then I remember it's being directed by Shawn "The Pink Panther" Levy (yeah he also did the Night at the Museums, which aren't terrible, just childish), and being released by Fox, who seems incapable of producing a good film, and that convinces me that it will suck.
Nobody but the people on this website has heard of the movie "Chloe".
Probably studios won't count "specialty" or indie films as strikeouts. But they might notice that a film like Brothers was helped by it's stars, but Chloe was not. But something I'm looking at is that studios will work with you unless you've cost them money. In the above example of Hilary Duff, her three chances were with three different studios. An executive might be putting his career on the line if he greenlit a film starring an actor who had already cost the studio money, only to have the new film fail as well. I'll keep an eye on Amanda Seyfried's filmography to see if Sony Pictures Classics works with her again. But if you are making the studio money elsewhere, like Eddie Murphy, they will fund your movie to keep you happy, even if the prospects aren't good.
Clash did 52% of it's business from 27% of its screens (3d) so people are still choosing 3d over 2d, but I think the numbers would be even higher if more 3d screens were available. So yes, we will be getting more 3d conversions, for now.
Next week's biggest release is Date Night (different demographic), so I don't see Clash having the big drop some are predicting. Runaways is expanding next week, but not enough to be a factor in the top ten (are you sure it's not from Summit? It's getting the same botched release pattern as Ghost Writer and Hurt Locker).
Apparition is even worse than Summit. Bright Star completely failed, then they killed Black Dynamite, which I personally hate them for, The Young Victoria wasn't anything special and Boondock Saints 2 seemed to make over $10 million with pure luck. And now they butchered Runaways. They simply don't know how to successfully market and release films yet.
They're new. You have to go easy on them. Apparently SUMMIT doesn't like winning awards, as they barely won BP for The Hurt Locker and judging from an early and limited release, they are killing awards opportunities for The Ghost Writer.
Talk about an Oscar bounce! The Blind Side is being widely released overseas, and has made $22 million confirmed so far. And it looks like it will do much better than that. I don't think it would have even been released overseas if it wasn't for the Oscars publicity.
What does BINGO mean?
It's my version of the always annoying "TOLDJA" by Finke. I reward myself a "Bingo" when I'm pretty close on the prediction.
@Laremy Legel: Even with a less-than-spectacular opening weekend, since Thursday, The Last Song has brought in just over $25 million – not bad for a flick that only cost $20 million to make. Also, I think bad word of mouth is what hurt and will continue to hurt the new Clash Of The Titans. The film was mediocre and from what I could see, no one in the audience (not even 11-year-old boys) were captivated. 2nd weekend's dip is gonna be a bitch.
How in the hell did a P.O.S. like The Bounty Hunter make over $50 million at the Box Office? Really People? Really?
Oh, Last Song looks profitable, I just thought (like MFan) that the crazy Hannah Montana numbers we saw two years ago might translate. But that looks to be a one time only anomaly at this point.
Last Song will definitely be profitable, just not as profitable.
I think it had to do with Miley, plain and simple. The Nicholas Sparks fans (those who went to see "Dear John" and "The Notebook" in droves) might have been turned off by Miley, dismissing the movie as something for the tweenagers. On the other hand, the film is WAY more dramatic (dark, even) than your average "Hannah Montana" episode, so the really little girls who love Hannah probably couldn't see it either. So the audience for the film included the people in between, and considering that, the film did fairly well. It probably won't do "Dear John" numbers, but a $55-60 million total is still quite nice.
I do not think Date Night will win next week. The reason is considering Titans opened on Easter weekend many people will still have to see it.
1.Clash of the Titans-36.4 m.
2.Date Night-35.9 mil
3.How To Train Your Dragon-21.3 m.
4.Married Too?-16.2 m.
5.The Last Song-12.3 m.
6.Alice in Wonderland-10.3 m.
7.Hot Tub-7.2 m.
8.Diary of a Wimpy Kid-4.3 m.
9.The Bounty Hunter-2.3 m.
10.Letters To God-1.1 m.- What is this movie?
Clash of The Titans will die next weekend, I see a 66% drop, to a $21M weekend. Date Night will dominate.
@mfan: I'm so sick of hearing about The Blind Side!! Has anyone bothered to read the book; the real story of Michael Oher? It's a complex examination of Southern race-relations, the meaning of family, white private schools, the community dynamic and of course football. In forgetting to show the many people who raised and cared for Michael (including other white families who attempted to adopt him first, and the many African Americans within and outside of the ghettos of Memphis), the film has turned his story in two a heartwarming tale of white charity.
I'm a student at Ole Miss, I've heard Michael tell his real story. This movie is not it.
Yes, the story is more from the Oher perspective. In fact, Michael Oher said in an interview that this was his parents story. I also liked how he didn't turn pro after his junior year in college, and gave his reasons but added, "and it will make my parents happy". Classic. The book is on my list of things to do. The movie was already long (over 2 hours), and they wern't going to be able to cram any more in there without making it a mini-series. I promise I will read the book sometime this year.
Did anyone but myself like "Clash of the Titans"?
It was stupid, yes, and the 3D was absolutely horrendous, but I thought it was a ton of silly fun. Or maybe that's just the "God of War" fanboy in me talking, I'm not sure yet.
I enjoyed Clash of the Titans as well. It was silly fun and entertaining
I think Date Night will do really well next week. I mean its an all star cast with some really funny people. Steve Carell and Tina Fey are basically the best comedic actors I can think of at the moment.Along with James Franco and Mila Kunis who are awesome. And it will most likely do much better than Valentine's Day (critically and B.O). Get Smart was one of my favorite comedies in 2008 (besides Pineapple Express). And I am a huge fan of The Office and 30 Rock. I'm thinking that this will probably do around 35-40 million. Which is decent and will hold well. As for Clash of the Titans that will fall hard along with Tyler Perry's new movie. How To Train Your Dragon and The Last Song in my opinion will have sort of strong holds.
TOP 10
1. Date Night- 38 mil
2. Clash of the Titans- 29 mil
3. How To Train Your Dragon- 19 mil
4. Why Did I Get Married Too?- 15 mil
5. The Last Song- 12 mil
6. Alice In Wonderland- 6 mil
7. Hot Tub Time Machine- 6 mil
8. The Bounty Hunter- 4 mil
9. Diary of a Wimpy Kid- 4 mil
10. Shutter Island- 1 mil
The Last Song opened on Australia with $1.8 million. That's about 11% of Song's U.S. debut which is consistent with Australia's 11% of Hannah Montana's final U.S. gross. Dear John only managed 5% of it's U.S. total run in Australia. The wednesday opening here for Song may or may not be affecting the percentages.