Box-Office Wrap-Up: Apr. 16 – Apr. 18, 2010
A shocker at the top!
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| The number one dragon movie of all time, by a ton. It would be quite a story if these numbers held, How to Train Your Dragon would be the first movie in quite some time to win its first and fourth weekends… without winning the weekends in-between. $320m on a production budget of $165m isn't ideal, but you've got to figure they have a few more strong weekends in them. The next true "family friendly" movie is either Oceans (with only 1200 screens) or Shrek Forever After, depending on your tastes. Still, I wouldn't bet the farm on these numbers just yet. I do think How to Train Your Dragon will hit $20m, heck I predicted $18.86, I just think Kick-Ass will do slightly better. Which brings us to … Result: $20 million My rank: I picked it to finish #3 and my prediction of $18.86 million was $1.14m off for a percentage error of 5.7%. | |
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My rank: I picked it to finish #1 with $26.67 million, which is $6.97m off for a 35.38% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $14.65 million, which is $2.65m off for a 15.32% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $23.36 million, which is $6.36m off for a 37.41% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $13.14 million, which is $2.56m off for a 16.31% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $6.1 million, which is $0.3m off for a 5.17% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $4.14 million, which is $0.04m off for a 0.98% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $3.48 million, which is $0.06m off for a 1.69% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $3.08 million, which is $0.42m off for a 12% variance.
My rank: Not Ranked
That's all I got. Anyone think Kick-Ass actually pulls this thing off? Care to opine as to why it failed? Was it not marketed correctly? And have you seen How to Train Your Dragon yet? Hard to root against that one. Comment away!
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I've gotta say the failure of Kick-Ass does not bode well for next weekend's The Losers, it seems that April may not be the best month for action movies, even Clash isn't doing THAT well.
Clash isn't doing amazing numbers because its a terrible movie. But its holds are better than expected for the genre. And last year Fast and Furious opened to $70 m in April. It all depends on the marketing and target audience. In the case of Kick-Ass their target audience was young adults but i have a feeling their marketing appealed more to teens below 17.
And 'The Losers' is rated PG-13 so it has a much better shot of having a good opening since it appeals to teens as well as young adults.
Disappointing numbers for Kick-Ass. It was quite an enjoyable movie. But great news for Dragon! Its my favorite movie of the year so far so its nice to see quality winning out in this age of huge opening weekends.
And i'm quite surprised by Clash's relatively small 40% drop. After the poor word of mouth especially. I wouldn't be surprised if teenage boys are buying tickets for Clash and sneaking into Kick-Ass?
They must buy a lot of tickets for Date Night too
I agree. HTTYD's my first and only A movie thus fur this year
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe was the last movie that won its first and fourth weekends like HTTYD. It was helped greatly by New Year's weekend, however (it rose 30%) so HTTYD is still special in its own right.
Overall, great weekend for HTTYD and Date Night, disappointing for openers (though they'll both still be successful being low-budgeted) and good for almost all holdovers. I still loathe Alice' and Clash's numbers, they are SO not deserved it makes me sick.
While Clash will not do over $160 m, Alice is just huge. I still don't understand how it did so well especially since it was just passable.
I have a feeling if Dragon had opened in Alice's slot, and had most of March to itself like Alice it would have done much bigger business especially with better word of mouth. Alice's success kind of dimmed people looking forward to Dragon since they already had their fill of 3D (even though Alice's 3D was so mediocre).
Alice was the first 3-D movie since Avatar. One can argue that while MvA, IA3 and Up were big, Avatar was the first film that truly sold 3-D to public. And as Alice's trailer was attached to every print of Avatar, well, one basically did lots of promotion of the other. Plus it was sold as a spectacle, it had Depp in it, Burton has his fans, it was filled with cool visuals, based on a popular book, etc. So I can easily understand why it opened big, but it was such a bad movie it deserved to crash and burn. I normally love Burton, but this is his worst movie ever.
And while HTTYD wouldn't exactly have done Alice numbers if they switched places, it undoubtely would have been bigger. On the other hand, it would have suffered two bad drops on the weekends Alice and CoTT would come out, while now it will be doing great at least until Iron Man 2 takes its IMAX screens and then Shrek takes the 3-D screens. After a disappointing opening it's shaping up to become a very good success. $220 million is locked now, and who knows how high it may go.
Because Alice in Wonderland came out in a far less competitive enviroment.
Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs had competition from Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (and to an extent Saccha Baron Cohen's Bruno) to contend with.
Alice's 3D effects weren't that mediocre. It made Avatar look like My Bloody Valentine 3D.
That's because Alice's appeal attracts a larger demographic. Teens and kids want to see it, the young adults want it, and the adults want to go back to their childhood years. With that, I present you $318M
Certainly surprised but if any film is going to pull it off, glad to see it was HTTYD.
I think Kick-Ass' downfall was marketing, while I thought it would have done much better this weekend, I expect large drop-offs because it came off as too cartoonish for older audiences and the high school kids who really wanted to see this film have troubles getting in. Personally, I have a bad "Watchmen" vibe about the next couple of weeks once word gets out that its not really a kid's flick.
The word will also get around that it's funny, entertaining as hell and, well, overall kick-ass. I think it'll gradually find its audience.
Don't get me wrong, I liked the film but I think Lions Gates screwed up with marketing and that once word gets out that the film is more brutal then promoted that its going to crash before becoming a hit on DVD.
That's my prediction but I'll gladly eat my words if Kick-Ass can recover.
It is a photo finish weekend until tomorrow. If you guys were curious, for my comment on Date Night on the prediction post, I said that it could pull a 'blind side'. Well, it happened, just with the wrong movie! Anyway, I think Date Night will spark the trend of 'blind sides' and FINALLY and DESERVEDLY pull one next weekend. I don't think The Back-Up Plan is going to be much of a threat. The Losers will somewhat, well, lose, and I don't think Oceans can pull an upset, though it would be nice to see that people care about the environment. I'm joking. But you see the point.
Actually, I think the losers have a bigger appeal to audiences. I can see it take $30M at least.
Back-Up Plan – $13.7M
The Losers – $18.2
Seriously?
Very serious. Warner Bros is a marketing machine, they won't let The Losers to open with less then $17M.
@John-PT: I was more or less referring to The Back-Up Plan as well, seeing as the new distributor is not likely to recover from its disaster of 'Extraordinary Measures'.
The Back-Up Plan have 3300 theaters. I dont see it falling below $13M.
I agree with you on the Back-up plan, I just don't see a lot of people wanting to see Jennifer Lopez, I'd see Katherine Heigl in Knocked Up anytime
Not to be a dick or anything but variance is a statistical term that isn't measured in percentages (it's the standard deviation squared). Variance is used to judge a whole group of data, and is used to measure how spread out the values of a data set are.
What you have listed is just percent error, there is no other term for it.
Wow, two photo-finish weekends in a row. And seeing that there is no clear favorite to win next weekend (I can see The Losers bombing) we might just have three.
Trying to imagine how the How To Train Your Dragon advertisements are going to look from here. "The #1 movie in America, 4 weeks in a row (save 2)!" lol
Early predics-
1. How To Train Your Dragon- $14 million
2. The Losers- $13 million
3. Kick-Ass- $12.5 million
4. The Back-Up Plan- $11 million
5. Date Night- $10.5 million
I actually think kick-ass will get to the top spot and take #1 at $21. Then people will tell their friends about it and say they loved it so much and next week, it will have $16 and then it will reach past $100.
I saw Date Night. It was extremely boring and stupid. Clash was much better. I do think that Kick-Ass won the weekend though. Next week:
1. Oceans-High marketing will get it good money.
2.The Losers- I suppose people will wanna see this too.
3.Kick-Ass- still people who are gonna see this.
4. Dragon- this is doing great. But I still think it won't crack the top 3.
5.Date Night-Uh… I just hate that people are watching this movie.
6.Clash of the Titans- I actually enjoyed this I'm just sick of everyone criticizing it for not being like the original. Cmon people wouldn't it be corny if it were like the original.
7.Death at a funeral- not doing so great in the first week.
8. The Last Song- This run is pretty much over.
9.Hot Tub- this is also OVER
10. Alice in Wonderland- I see a sequel coming.
First of all theres no way Oceans is gonna be #1. Its opening only in 1200 theaters so it would have to have incredible per screen averages. Earth made about $9 m from 1800 theaters so i doubt this will go so much higher.
And people aren't criticizing Clash for not being like the original, they are trashing it for being a terrible movie period. The original was corny but it had a charm and several sequences including the Medusa one still hold up way better than anything in Clash despite its access to a huge budget and state of the art tech.
I liked, but not loved, Date Night. I saw it this weekend and it COULD pull a blind side for the #1 spot next weekend but I also think Oceans will take it.
Oceans at first?! C'mon… Where is The Back-Up Plan??
WOW!
I am very happy for Date Night and HTTYD
FINAL CUME PREDICTIONS-
HTTYD- 210 mil.
DATE NIGHT- 83 mil.
NEXT WEEKEND:
LOSERS – $24.7 million
BACK UP PLAN – $23.5 million
OCEANS – $11.0 million
NEXT WEEKEND:
LOSERS – $9.1 million
BACK UP PLAN – $13.1 million
OCEANS – $4.0 million
I say that damn Dragon crap will be #1 again next weekend. Makes me sad to see a movie like that #1 when a very good movie like Kick-ass deserved to be #1. Easily the best 2010 theatrical release I have seen this year.
Dragons crap? Have you even seen the movie?! Its gotten some of the best reviews of any release this year and a 98% on rotten tomatoes. And much better reviews than Kick-Ass.
I really enjoyed Kick-Ass but overall as a movie Dragon is miles ahead of Kick-Ass. Do yourself a favor and watch it.
Oh man, you've definitely got yourself in Trouble. Kids will hate 'ya. (cheers)
Seriously, Dragon was good. Pixar good. Watch it.
Yeah, got to go with the consensus here. Dragons is great, and in my opinion far superior to Kick Ass. Whereas Kick Ass failed to coalesce thematically, Dragons stayed true to its tone and style and its characters for the full 90 minutes, and held no dull parts. Kick Ass, well, I looked at my watch twice. Kick Ass had a few great moments, but unfortunately too much mediocrity got spread around. Dragons had none of that. Again, just my opinion, you have the right to hold onto yours. I think that in five to ten years, people that held Kick Ass to such a high pedestal, may start to see the flaws in the film better.
I think (and hope) Kick-Ass will pull out the win when the actuals come out tomorrow. I saw it twice this weekend actually, and absolutely loved it. My favorite film of the year so far. I think it was too extreme for mainstream American audiences, hence the poor performance overall, though it should end up okay financially unless it nosedives from here.
SPOILERS FOLLOW!!!! I feel like I should defend it a bit since the response around here seems to be lukewarm at best. Which is fine, I just want to throw my opinion into the pot. I thought it had interesting characters that you (or I at least) genuinely cared about, and that's a feat in and of itself these days. I thought it was stylistically brilliant…the whole Red Mist betrayal/torture scene/Hit Girl shootout sequence felt Michael Mann-like to me. I'll agree that it's a bit all over the place thematically, but here's what I basically pulled out of it: Kick-Ass and Hit Girl/Big Daddy are two sides of the "real-life superhero" coin. Obviously the latter pair are more in the Batman realm (they can buy whatever technology they need, though they don't come by the money honestly), but Big Daddy's obsessive quest for revenge ends up with him dead and her having lost her childhood to being trained as a vengeful assassin. Kick-Ass is more "realistic" (just a comic book geek with a couple of batons and a costume) and he gets the shit kicked out of him every time he tries to help someone, but even though he comes to hate it (and himself as he tells Katie) he still keeps going out there and taking a beating because he thinks it's the right thing to do. And ultimately, he and Hit Girl triumph. If they really wanted to drive home the whole notion of superheroes being just idiotic fantasy, they could have killed everyone off at the end, having them fail completely, but that would make for a downer of an ending. So we get a more generic thematically, but immensely satisfying ending that allows Kick-Ass to finally triumph after failing so many times, and allows Hit Girl to avenge her father's death. END SPOILERS!!!!
For next weekend….who the hell knows?! The Losers is the safe bet, but Kick-Ass was the safe bet this week. Granted, it has a PG-13 and is far more accessible to mainstream American audiences, so it's probably going to win. But you've also got to consider The Back-Up Plan (though with almost zero advertising I see it bombing badly) as well as holdovers of both Dragon and Kick-Ass. The latter not so much, but if word of mouth is good (it has an 8.5 on IMDB, for what that's worth) it could maybe pull out $13-14 million or so. That almost surely won't be enough to beat The Losers (or Dragon for that matter), but I'm just saying it shouldn't be discounted completely. But honestly, regardless of who won this week, Dragon probably has the best chance of the holdovers to beat The Losers next weekend.
I don't know why the rest of the country didn't see it, but I can tell you why I didn't waste money on it. Originally, I was excited about this title. I watched the teaser and first full trailer several times. I thought it looked like a silly fun film, then…I saw the movie clips. Love and excitement turned to hate and repulsion. Thank you Rope of Silicon for saving from this disgusting film. Sorry Hollywood, I'm just not interested in seeing people brutally murdered, while listening to a 12 year old girl curse like a drunken sailor. I know the film isn't supposed to be taken seriously, BUT, what kind of message are they sending, when the only difference between the 'good guys' and the 'bad guys' is a costume.
1.Date Night-Oceans could take it, but there is reason enough for two blind sides back-to-back.
2.Oceans-could be a threat.
3.Kick-Ass-assuming this week's actuals prove otherwise.
4.The Losers-if the reviews are good.
5.The Back-Up Plan-looks STUPID!
6.How to Train Your Dragon-actually, I'll slide this higher later.
7.Death at a Funeral-the biggest dropper of next week.
8.The Last Song-Miley needs to pick better roles than this.
9.Clash of the Titans-also DONE.
10.Why Did I Get Married Too?-Perry builds a ton of box office buzz but can't sustain.
After a low week everyone's predicting low for next weekend. C'mon guys! We need real action!
The Losers – $35M
HTTYD – $16M
The Back-Up Plan – $13M – Jen is not that appealing
Kick-Ass
Date Night
Oceans
Sucks to see my win streak go, however, I loved HTTYD, it's my first A-movie of the year. Haven't seen Kick-Ass yet. I'll probably do so soon.
Damn! This proves that making good movies + good marketing = $$$
HTTYD is currently Imdb's top 228
Kick-Ass is Imdb's top 218
If these movies get more votes they'd go higher. Man what a week!
I have a strange feeling that The Back Up Plan may just pip The Losers to the post.
Why? you might ask. The simple fact is that according to BOM's release scedule, Back Up is showing on about 3,300 screens. Losers is showing on about 2,900 screens.
Should have guessed it, looks like in KC Titans was losing 3D screens to Dragons.
And I'm eating my hat at my stupid-ass "ballsy" prediction for Kick-Ass. But what the hell I'll make another one, Iron Man 2, 160 million openning weekend, and I'll agree with Ian's comment, Kick-Ass is way to extreme for Americans. Even if this thing fails in the states it will do amazingly well overseas.
Maybe I'm confused here, but what sort of marketing has the Losers been getting? I'm a movie geek, but I have no idea what the film is truly about or who any of the characters are, or anything. I watched the trailer the other day and my wife leaned over and said, That looked generic. And I agreed. Also, only 2400 theaters, I don't see the hype or the buzz or anything. Why is there this feeling that this movie is going to blow up? Where are the early reviews? Why all the date changes? My wife actually said as the trailer started, "Oh, is this the A Team?" Please someone explain to me why we are expecting such big numbers. PG-13 or not, no one in my circle of friends is talking about it. I say it's lucky to get more than $10 million for an opening.
Kick Ass wound up winning the weekend! Your streak is still alive Laremy.
Kind of, its tough to determine because "distributor Lionsgate is counting non-weekend Thursday night grosses towards 'Kick-Ass's weekend gross. The difference could be large enough that 'How to Train Your Dragon' is actually No. 1."
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/
Hot damn, another crazy photo finish.
With two weak box office weekends in a row (assuming next weekend is slow also) Nightmare on Elm Street is setting themselves up nicely for a big weekend before if gets smacked by Iron Man. That movie should be cool for teens, and loved by us Gen X'ers. Plus Jackie Earl Haley is a solid actor. Not to mention when's was the last horror movie out?
If Harry Brown has a wide enough release it may just pip Elm Street. Michael Caine has appeal.
In the UK, Harry Brown was released in November 2009, where it opened against 2012, Amelia and Taking Woodstock. Although 2012 dominated, Harry Brown was the suprise hit of the month.
Expect the theater count for Tyler Perry's movie to get totally hammered as three new films are widely released, and theater owners decide thay don't need both Death At A Funeral, and a movie that is geared towards the same audience and has been dropping by 2/3 every week.
Amazon proves to be smarter than Walmart as it has bought IMDB and Box Office Mojo, with BOM DVD release info linking directly to Amazon.