And State of Play might have trouble making $20 M, but it might be in the top 10 for weeks. It might depend on reviews.

I think Crank is gonna surprise everyone and take the cake. The first was hilarious, and it's all people are talking about at my office. Anyone else feel this way???

1) 17 Again – $28 Million

2) Hannah God Foresaken Montanah – $ 23 Million

3) State of Play – $21 Million

4) Fast and Furious – $16 Million

5) Crank: High Voltage – $12 Million

I would like to see State of Play and Crank overtake the constant wave of mindless entertainment for the 14 year old girl audience that apparently own the world but I doubt it. I might be going a bit high on HM's second week but I have to imagine more little girls will be dragging their parents out to see it. Efron prints money apparently so yeah.

Honestly, I have no idea if any of those numbers are even remotely close. I'm the same guy that said Watchmen might hit 100 Mil on opening weekend. That really says it all doesn't it?

Zac Efron's star power (ugh) and the very good advertising should bring 17 Again at least 20 million. I would put it down for around 25 million if it was rated pg instead of pg-13. State of play should bring in the adults who haven't had anything good to see since I Love You, Man and Duplicity came out a month ago, and its PG-13 rating will certainly boost its chances of coming in at over 20 million. I'm putting Hannah Montana down for a respectable less then 50% drop, because no other movies that appeal to kids are coming out this weekend, and most of its fans are very likely to go see it again. I'm only putting down Crank 2 for 12 million, because State of Play will take many of the adults, and teens will go see State of Play or 17 Again, and will be unable to see it without a parent because of its R rating. I'm putting Fast & Furious down for another lofty drop of over 50%, because State of Play and Crank 2 will steal much of its audience. And finally, Monsters vs. Aliens will see a somewhat heavier drop then it had this weekend, 50%. This is simple; it has no easter to boost its audience this weekend.

I think I may be putting Crank 2 down for too little, but I guess we'll all see come this weekend. Happy easter!

"Duplicity" failed because it didn't even show what the plot was. Just tried to sell itself solely on it's two stars (since when was Clive Owen appealing to anyone at all? name a movie that did good because of only him) and didn't even give a clear description of what it plot was (all i remember was – in classic movie trailer narration – "THEY..ARE DOUBLE-CROSSING EACH OTHER"). Not exactly original-looking or appealing. As for "The International"… it was rated R and looked like a very poor man's "Eagle Eye".

"State of Play" is showing what it's plot clearly is, has a huge cast to back it up, and a PG-13 rating. I think it should do swell.

Next weekend: I'm not really feeling "State of Play." I'm afraid it'll perform like "The International" and "Duplicity"–or maybe worse. I'm feeling rather good about "Crank 2," thinking it could possibly double the OW of the first movie… but that would still put it only around $20 million. Sad as it is to say, I think "17 Again" will win the weekend. Or IS it so sad after all? Right now rottentomatoes has 10 fresh reviews out of 12. Not bad at all! Apparently the critics are a whole lot less biased against the tween films than we are ("Hannah Montana" and "Beverly Hills Chihuahua" managed to score in the 40 percent range, and HSM3 got a fresh rating, whereas imdb users gave them 1's out of principle when they hadn't even seen the films).

I don't think next weekend will be strong. But neither do I think Hannah Montana or F&F will snag #1 again. HM will drop like a stone (If it makes more than $14 million next weekend, I'll be surprised), and F&F will be below the $20 million mark, leaving one of the opening movies just enough space to snag a win.

I predicted Miley around 36 mill, F&F around 28 mill, M.V.A at 20 mill, and Observe and Report at 27 mill.
I got the first two spots about spot-on, and the gross nearly right for M.V.A, but I guess I really slipped up on the Rogenator.

EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND
1. STATE OF PLAY – $24 million
(because seriously… adults haven't had anything special for them to see by themselves for a while)

2. 17 AGAIN – $23 million
Enough Efron fans should be out to see it… it has an interesting, solid cast. Think half the HannahMontana crowd will completely flock over to this one?

3. HANNAH MONTANA – $21 million
Not only does the audience rush out to see it opening weekend.. they rush out to see it again… and again.. and again… and again…. and again….

4. CRANK HIGH VOLTAGE – $19 million
Did anyone even see the first one in theaters? Honestly, someone refresh me on this one. Didn't all of it's audience arrive only for the DVD?

5. FAST AND FURIOUS – $14-15 million
Crank will make it drop a bit more than you'd think.

Like I said on the CS.net column… this April 17-19 weekend, all movies in the top 5 will FINALLY all each earn more than $10 million. That hasn't happened since Friday the 13th came out (isn't that interesting?)

Happy Easter everyone! God bless you! =]