Box-Office Wrap-Up: Apr. 10 – Apr. 12, 2009
COMMENTS
Hannah Montana outraced The Fast and Furious this weekend.
How about that? Miley/Hannah/Disney had enough to win the weekend. It busted out with a $17m Friday and then coasted home. Let's get into it.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
Clearly Miley owns The Jonas Bros. We all thought the great teen surge was over, but nope, Miley still has it. Best of Both Worlds made $70m overall, looks like this one will do even better.
Result: 34.0 million (My rank: #2, $5.9m off)
It fell almost 60 percent. Still, as Brad pointed out, this one sits near $150m and they'd be insane not to greenlight a fifth one.
Result: 28.7 million (My rank: #1, $1.9m off)
Back on track. Looks like this this one got a little Easter bump.
Result: 22.6 million (My rank: #3, $3.4m off)
It was what I thought it was. How about releasing a dark comedy on a family weekend? Bold. Of course, it didn't really work. Thankfully, the production budget was only $18m, though I'm sure they spent another $15m-$20m in ads.
Result: 11.1 million (My rank: #4, $1.2m off)
5. Knowing
This one dropped 18 percent? Clearly everyone took my advice to see it. That's good. We're changing lives around here.
Result: 6.6 million (My rank: #7, $2.3m off)
Hmm, this one only dropped 17 percent. I enjoyed it, but I didn't recommend it. It's almost like I don't have millions of people blindly following my advice.
Result: 6.4 million (My rank: #9, $2.3m off)
Where did Adventureland go? Dragonball? This one will crack $50m on Monday, far more than they spent. So look for Haunting in Vermont coming to a theater near you.
Result: 5.7 million (My rank: #8, $1.5m off)
I was pretty close on the dollars, it was the order that eluded me. Dragonball got murdered. A filthy, dirty, murdering at the box-office.
Result: 4.6 million (My rank: #6, $.2m off)
It never had enough theaters to make an impact. And away it goes!
Result: 3.4 million (My rank: #5, $1.1m off)
10. Duplicity
No, it won't make a profit. It's at $54 vs a $60m production budget. They're gonna need that DVD to do some serious business to cover them Julia Roberts costs.
Result: 2.9 million (My rank: #10, $1.2m off)
Next week is another tough one. 17 Again has Zac Efron, State of Play has Russ Crowe, Ben Affleck, and Rachel McAdams. Crank: High Voltage has Statham molesting old ladies. And the top two films from this weekend should face big drops. So it's anybody's ballgame. Again.
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i am picking "State of Play" for next weekend. hopefully people will choose real acting (with a pretty exciting concept) over a movie w/ sorry acting and a plot that has only been done about 30 times. I think "Crank 2" could even beat "17 Again," but Efron might bring just enough teenage girls in to beat it.
It's a shame really, Dragon Ball has so much potential.
Sorry I wasn't able to post my predictions here. Completely slipped my mind. And it turns out if I had, then I would've been right again. Haha. 'Cause I posted them on ComingSoon.net.
I predicted Miley around 36 mill, F&F around 28 mill, M.V.A at 20 mill, and Observe and Report at 27 mill.
I got the first two spots about spot-on, and the gross nearly right for M.V.A, but I guess I really slipped up on the Rogenator.
EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND
1. STATE OF PLAY – $24 million
(because seriously… adults haven't had anything special for them to see by themselves for a while)
2. 17 AGAIN – $23 million
Enough Efron fans should be out to see it… it has an interesting, solid cast. Think half the HannahMontana crowd will completely flock over to this one?
3. HANNAH MONTANA – $21 million
Not only does the audience rush out to see it opening weekend.. they rush out to see it again… and again.. and again… and again…. and again….
4. CRANK HIGH VOLTAGE – $19 million
Did anyone even see the first one in theaters? Honestly, someone refresh me on this one. Didn't all of it's audience arrive only for the DVD?
5. FAST AND FURIOUS – $14-15 million
Crank will make it drop a bit more than you'd think.
Like I said on the CS.net column… this April 17-19 weekend, all movies in the top 5 will FINALLY all each earn more than $10 million. That hasn't happened since Friday the 13th came out (isn't that interesting?)
Happy Easter everyone! God bless you! =]
There still isn't anything out worth watching
"Fast and Furious" did just fine with its 59.4% drop, considering the third one dropped 59.1% and the second one dropped 63%. If it continues according to trend, it may hold over half of its business next weekend and end up with an OW that accounts for less than 40% of its domestic total. Not bad at all.
Next weekend: I'm not really feeling "State of Play." I'm afraid it'll perform like "The International" and "Duplicity"–or maybe worse. I'm feeling rather good about "Crank 2," thinking it could possibly double the OW of the first movie… but that would still put it only around $20 million. Sad as it is to say, I think "17 Again" will win the weekend. Or IS it so sad after all? Right now rottentomatoes has 10 fresh reviews out of 12. Not bad at all! Apparently the critics are a whole lot less biased against the tween films than we are ("Hannah Montana" and "Beverly Hills Chihuahua" managed to score in the 40 percent range, and HSM3 got a fresh rating, whereas imdb users gave them 1's out of principle when they hadn't even seen the films).
I don't think next weekend will be strong. But neither do I think Hannah Montana or F&F will snag #1 again. HM will drop like a stone (If it makes more than $14 million next weekend, I'll be surprised), and F&F will be below the $20 million mark, leaving one of the opening movies just enough space to snag a win.
I disagree. State of Play actually has a really strong, talented cast, a solid enough concept, and a PG-13 rating. 30+ audiences/adult-couples haven't had a good movie to see on a date night anyway… unless it was with their kids ("Monsters Vs. Aliens"). It has Russell Crowe… mainly appealing to that 30+ male & female audience. It has the return of Rachel McAdams…. who fans should stay loyal to and happy to see onscreen again. Ben Affleck is also returning, and it has Helen Mirren, Jason Bateman, Jeff Daniels, and Bonita Friedericy. Quite an appealing cast for the adults. If you couldn't tell… I'm pretty sure adults are gonna dominate this movie. Haha.
"Duplicity" failed because it didn't even show what the plot was. Just tried to sell itself solely on it's two stars (since when was Clive Owen appealing to anyone at all? name a movie that did good because of only him) and didn't even give a clear description of what it plot was (all i remember was – in classic movie trailer narration – "THEY..ARE DOUBLE-CROSSING EACH OTHER"). Not exactly original-looking or appealing. As for "The International"… it was rated R and looked like a very poor man's "Eagle Eye".
"State of Play" is showing what it's plot clearly is, has a huge cast to back it up, and a PG-13 rating. I think it should do swell.
@Chuck Bartowski: State of Play is going to be an interesting one for sure. The TV spots have made it look much better than the original trailers did and after seeing it I am going to be extremely interested in seeing reviews. I can't help but wonder if the major dailies are going to be much kinder to it than online reviewers simply due to its "newspapers are great" theme. Obviously I can't give much of a review due to embargoes, but it is definitely going to play better with audiences than both The International and Duplicity based on all the reasons you put forth.
17 Again- 23 million
State of Play- 21 million
Hannah Montana The Movie- 18.5 million
Fast & Furious- 13 million
Crank 2- 12.5 million
Monsters Vs. Aliens- 11 million
Zac Efron's star power (ugh) and the very good advertising should bring 17 Again at least 20 million. I would put it down for around 25 million if it was rated pg instead of pg-13. State of play should bring in the adults who haven't had anything good to see since I Love You, Man and Duplicity came out a month ago, and its PG-13 rating will certainly boost its chances of coming in at over 20 million. I'm putting Hannah Montana down for a respectable less then 50% drop, because no other movies that appeal to kids are coming out this weekend, and most of its fans are very likely to go see it again. I'm only putting down Crank 2 for 12 million, because State of Play will take many of the adults, and teens will go see State of Play or 17 Again, and will be unable to see it without a parent because of its R rating. I'm putting Fast & Furious down for another lofty drop of over 50%, because State of Play and Crank 2 will steal much of its audience. And finally, Monsters vs. Aliens will see a somewhat heavier drop then it had this weekend, 50%. This is simple; it has no easter to boost its audience this weekend.
I think I may be putting Crank 2 down for too little, but I guess we'll all see come this weekend. Happy easter!
Top 5:
1) 17 Again – $28 Million
2) Hannah God Foresaken Montanah – $ 23 Million
3) State of Play – $21 Million
4) Fast and Furious – $16 Million
5) Crank: High Voltage – $12 Million
I would like to see State of Play and Crank overtake the constant wave of mindless entertainment for the 14 year old girl audience that apparently own the world but I doubt it. I might be going a bit high on HM's second week but I have to imagine more little girls will be dragging their parents out to see it. Efron prints money apparently so yeah.
Honestly, I have no idea if any of those numbers are even remotely close. I'm the same guy that said Watchmen might hit 100 Mil on opening weekend. That really says it all doesn't it?
1. 17 Again- $23.5 million
2. State of Play- $20.8 million
3. Hannah Montana: The Movie- $18.7 million
4. Fast & Furious- $13.9 million
5. Crank 2- $12.4 million
6. Monsters Vs. Aliens- $11.2 million
7. Observe & Report- $5.8 million
8. I Love You, Man- $4.6 million
9. Knowing- $4.4 million
10. The Haunting In Connecticut- $3.2 million
1. CRANK HIGH VOLTAGE – $25 million
2. 17 Again $21 million
3. Hannah Montana – 17 million
4. State of Play – 15 million
5. Fast and Furious 14 million
I think Crank is gonna surprise everyone and take the cake. The first was hilarious, and it's all people are talking about at my office. Anyone else feel this way???
The bad thing about Crank H.V. is I have never seen the original on broadcast TV. You would think it would be all over with the second coming out. You can't go a week without see a Transporter movie somewhere.
And State of Play might have trouble making $20 M, but it might be in the top 10 for weeks. It might depend on reviews.