Box Office Predictions

Box Office Predictions: 'Transcendence' Fights Off 'Haunted', 'Heaven', and 'Bears' for Weekend Title

Look at the crowded field! So Crowded!

Weekend Box-Office Predictions

TranscendenceTranscendence should be the winner this weekend, even though it looks to be the most mysterious title on the board (generally a deal-breaker with general audiences). Here's the crazy part - right now it sits at 17 percent on RottenTomatoes! That's really shocking. I would have given it around a B- (just as Brad did), right on the border, but I can't believe it's treading in the teens while Divergent and Draft Day are 20 and 30 points higher.

Still, the tracking for Transcendence is solid, Johnny Depp still draws a crowd (though more internationally) and I think the trailers have been halfway decent. At this point last year another non-sequel sci-fi with a big-name actor took the crown. Want a moment to guess? Time's up, the movie was Oblivion with $37.1 million. If you like that number, then my $30.6 million call is low, but if you're a stickler for tracking, you'll see me as high. Quite the conundrum for you fellow predictors out there!

I can't remember another weekend where two top ten titles were of the "Christian" persuasion, but new release Heaven is for Real is getting super wide (2400+ theaters), made $3 million on Wednesday and clearly wants the audience God's Not Dead had. If films aimed at churchgoers can earn 20x their production budget going forward, as God's Not Dead did, then we're going to see this sort of thing happening a lot more frequently. As for Heaven is For Real, it has Greg Kinnear and Thomas Haden Church, so it feels more "studio" than "grassroots" to me, but the tracking looks solid. I'm going slightly over at $17 million.

The less that's said about a film like A Haunted House 2, the better. Naturally, this wasn't screened, but the first one pulled down $60 million worldwide on a production budget of $2.5 million. So why wouldn't you keep making them on the cheap? Still, I know they spend some dollars marketing these spoof films, because even I've seen trailers during limited TV advertisement viewing. My call of $16.2 million is below the original film's opening number. Perhaps I just want to hope people are smartening up?

Finally, we've got to take a look at Bears. The Disneynature movies all come out in April, Bears will mark the fifth year in the row. Where it comes to predicting, they are all over the board in terms of worldwide totals, but the domestic openings tend to fall in the six to ten million dollar range. Why am I going over with Bears? It's a gut feeling that young people would be more drawn to bears than say, Earth, or African Cats. My $11.2 million will likely be high, but that's the price you pay for going with your gut instead of math.

Now it's your turn. Predict early, predict often. I know Brad was disappointed in the amount of people predicting last weekend, so don't let us down again. I don't want him yelling at me anymore, help a brother out.

Current Record: 13-43-1 against the wisdom of the crowds.

Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking

  • Transcendence: $25.7 million
  • Heaven is for Real: $16.5 million
  • Haunted House 2: $15.9 million
  • Bears: $9.5 million

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.

Time for posting predictions for this weekend has expired.

Predictions for this weekend were due by
end of day Thursday, April 17th

Click Here to see this week's reader predictions.

For a complete look at the rules and regulations on how to compete click the "Rules & Regulations" tab at the top of the page right here.

Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for April 18 - April 20, 2014

  1. Transcendence was #1 at the box-office
  2. Rio 2 () - $24.8 million
    Playing in 3,948 theaters ($6,282 avg.) / $103 million budget / 46%
  3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier () - $21 million
    Playing in 3,938 theaters ($5,333 avg.) / $170 million budget / 89%
  4. Heaven is for Real () - $17 million
    Playing in 2,417 theaters ($7,034 avg.) / $12 million budget / 47%
  5. A Haunted House 2 () - $16.2 million
    Playing in 2,310 theaters ($7,013 avg.) / $3 million budget / 9%
  6. Bears () - $11.2 million
    Playing in 1,600 theaters ($7,000 avg.)
  7. Oculus () - $4.5 million
    Playing in 2,648 theaters ($1,699 avg.) / $5 million budget / 72%
  8. Draft Day () - $4.3 million
    Playing in 2,781 theaters ($1,546 avg.) / 62%
  9. Divergent () - $3.8 million
    Playing in 2,600 theaters ($1,462 avg.) / $85 million budget / 41%
  10. God's Not Dead () - $3.6 million
    Playing in 1,860 theaters ($1,935 avg.) / $2 million budget
Click here to browse our box-office charts and compare Laremy's predictions

80 Readers Have Posted Predictions

  • 11:33:39 pm Matt Taylor
  • Bears - $5.3 million
  • Transcendence - $18.7 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $12.6 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $17.1 million
  • 11:33:39 pm cargosatthemovies
  • Bears - $20 million
  • Transcendence - $30.2 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $14.7 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $17.23 million
  • 11:33:39 pm andyluvsfilms
  • Bears - $13.3 million
  • Transcendence - $32 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $17.5 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $17.9 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Stringer Bell
  • Bears - $8.5 million
  • Transcendence - $34.7 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $18.9 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $15.6 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Nathan
  • Bears - $12.0 million
  • Transcendence - $28.8 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $16.3 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $16.6 million
  • 11:33:39 pm coltonhaynes22
  • Bears - $7.8 million
  • Transcendence - $31.3 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $15.4 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $15.7 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Corbin
  • Bears - $10.3 million
  • Transcendence - $28.8 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $15.4 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $19.9 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Peter Bandrowsky
  • Bears - $7.9 million
  • Transcendence - $24.5 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $12.8 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $14.2 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Exxdee13
  • Bears - $7.4 million
  • Transcendence - $20.3 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $14.1 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $15.2 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Joe K
  • Bears - $7.5 million
  • Transcendence - $24.8 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $16 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $17.2 million
  • 11:33:39 pm maja
  • Bears - $8.2 million
  • Transcendence - $24.1 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $14.7 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $17.0 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Ryan Maddux
  • Bears - $10.5 million
  • Transcendence - $32.5 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $15.5 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $20.5 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Stephen Jay
  • Bears - $7.8 million
  • Transcendence - $24.8 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $10.2 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $13.0 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Erik
  • Bears - $8.4 million
  • Transcendence - $24.8 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $11.4 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $15.8 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Ron
  • Bears - $11.1 million
  • Transcendence - $27.5 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $9.7 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $19.8 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Shifty
  • Bears - $9.3 million
  • Transcendence - $28.4 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $21.1 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $17.6 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Dave AD
  • Bears - $10.6 million
  • Transcendence - $29.8 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $17.5 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $20.5 million
  • 11:33:39 pm John D.
  • Bears - $8.7 million
  • Transcendence - $25.2 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $12.2 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $16.5 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Rach
  • Bears - $9.7 million
  • Transcendence - $31.6 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $13.2 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $22.6 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Michael Chiazzese
  • Bears - $9.5 million
  • Transcendence - $28 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $17 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $15 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Michael
  • Bears - $10.0 million
  • Transcendence - $28.4 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $15.7 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $17.8 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Torryz
  • Bears - $10.5 million
  • Transcendence - $35.6 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $24.6 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $12.1 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Jimmy B
  • Bears - $7.34 million
  • Transcendence - $23.8 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $13.3 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $21.9 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Driver
  • Bears - $10.0 million
  • Transcendence - $27.8 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $13.3 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $14.9 million
  • 11:33:39 pm AdamsLostApple
  • Bears - $6.5 million
  • Transcendence - $26.3 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $14.8 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $18.9 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Neerav Jain
  • Bears - $7.3 million
  • Transcendence - $34.0 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $13.6 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $15.2 million
  • 11:33:39 pm zm
  • Bears - $8.0 million
  • Transcendence - $22.3 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $13.7 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $15.9 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Alan Smithee
  • Bears - $9.2 million
  • Transcendence - $22.9 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $14.3 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $18.8 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Matt P
  • Bears - $7.4 million
  • Transcendence - $19.5 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $15.5 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $23.1 million
  • 11:33:39 pm azjoker1
  • Bears - $9.2 million
  • Transcendence - $28.8 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $12.2 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $16.0 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Trent Carroll
  • Bears - $10.4 million
  • Transcendence - $28.9 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $17 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $15.5 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Arthur Carlson
  • Bears - $7.2 million
  • Transcendence - $20.2 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $13.7 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $18.5 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Maj. Kong
  • Bears - $9.1 million
  • Transcendence - $29.0 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $11.5 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $19.7 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Austin Gorski
  • Bears - $7.5 million
  • Transcendence - $24.5 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $15.5 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $17.5 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Peete
  • Bears - $9 million
  • Transcendence - $26.8 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $14.6 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $15.3 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Mykael
  • Bears - $12 million
  • Transcendence - $22.67 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $9.3 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $13.43 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Max
  • Bears - $10.6 million
  • Transcendence - $31.3 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $17.1 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $20 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Roger
  • Bears - $10.5 million
  • Transcendence - $28.7 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $13.4 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $14.8 million
  • 11:33:39 pm dam94
  • Bears - $8.9 million
  • Transcendence - $24.7 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $14.5 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $16.2 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Ugueth
  • Bears - $12.4 million
  • Transcendence - $22.4 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $17.8 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $13.3 million
  • 11:33:39 pm MM
  • Bears - $10 million
  • Transcendence - $29 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $15 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $16 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Athar
  • Bears - $7.9 million
  • Transcendence - $22.3 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $13.8 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $16.6 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Israel Valencia
  • Bears - $9.8 million
  • Transcendence - $29.3 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $13.0 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $17.6 million
  • 11:33:39 pm GregDinskisk
  • Bears - $10.11 million
  • Transcendence - $35.78 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $19.91 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $15.7 million
  • 11:33:39 pm TimmaeXVX
  • Bears - $8.1 million
  • Transcendence - $18.6 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $11.7 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $24.3 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Jack Tyler
  • Bears - $7 million
  • Transcendence - $17.5 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $11 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $15 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Cordia
  • Bears - $8.4 million
  • Transcendence - $28.2 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $15.3 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $16.1 million
  • 11:33:39 pm APototsky
  • Bears - $11.1 million
  • Transcendence - $23.1 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $14.4 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $18.5 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Jason Lavender
  • Bears - $10.1 million
  • Transcendence - $23.6 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $15.4 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $16.9 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Rob
  • Bears - $6.0 million
  • Transcendence - $19.9 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $14.2 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $15.0 million
  • 11:33:39 pm moasey
  • Bears - $7.9 million
  • Transcendence - $29.1 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $14.4 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $21 million
  • 11:33:39 pm kyle coley
  • Bears - $9.2 million
  • Transcendence - $31.3 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $20.1 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $18.7 million
  • 11:33:39 pm santiago de la rosa
  • Bears - $9.7 million
  • Transcendence - $27.2 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $11.9 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $20.3 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Andrew13
  • Bears - $9.7 million
  • Transcendence - $29.9 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $14.2 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $20.3 million
  • 11:33:39 pm ClassicWingers
  • Bears - $9.7 million
  • Transcendence - $41.1 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $15.0 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $17.1 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Abraham Sánchez
  • Bears - $11.5 million
  • Transcendence - $27.0 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $15.1 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $18.0 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Bob Phelan
  • Bears - $10 million
  • Transcendence - $24.9 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $15.4 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $17.6 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Eric83
  • Bears - $8.1 million
  • Transcendence - $20.1 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $11.1 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $6.1 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Jeffrey
  • Bears - $9.7 million
  • Transcendence - $28.6 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $21.1 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $17.3 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Vaus
  • Bears - $8.08 million
  • Transcendence - $19.19 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $13.31 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $15.51 million
  • 11:33:39 pm PJ Edwards
  • Bears - $8.2 million
  • Transcendence - $14.8 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $20 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $22.6 million
  • 11:33:39 pm luis Remelli
  • Bears - $7.5 million
  • Transcendence - $21.5 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $12.7 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $14 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Winchester
  • Bears - $11.9 million
  • Transcendence - $29.1 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $14.3 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $24.5 million
  • 11:33:39 pm cougarfaster96
  • Bears - $8.8 million
  • Transcendence - $25.6 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $11.2 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $18.4 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Alexandra Fechete
  • Bears - $5.2 million
  • Transcendence - $22.7 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $8.9 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $13.2 million
  • 11:33:39 pm kathrynlynn
  • Bears - $15.9 million
  • Transcendence - $18.3 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $19.2 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $17 million
  • 11:33:39 pm austinjoel
  • Bears - $8.6 million
  • Transcendence - $28.75 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $11.8 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $20.2 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Kieran
  • Bears - $8.1 million
  • Transcendence - $24.8 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $10.3 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $18.6 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Steve C
  • Bears - $12.2 million
  • Transcendence - $15.4 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $8.9 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $26.7 million
  • 11:33:39 pm crayc30
  • Bears - $8.4 million
  • Transcendence - $23.85 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $13.19 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $15.88 million
  • 11:33:39 pm John Santos
  • Bears - $7.5 million
  • Transcendence - $22.6 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $12.4 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $15.8 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Fredie Fred
  • Bears - $8.6 million
  • Transcendence - $22.1 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $13.8 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $23.4 million
  • 11:33:39 pm tomsen
  • Bears - $8.0 million
  • Transcendence - $23.0 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $11.4 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $20.5 million
  • 11:33:39 pm J T
  • Bears - $6.8 million
  • Transcendence - $19.5 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $11.0 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $15.8 million
  • 11:33:39 pm NitPicker68
  • Bears - $5.6 million
  • Transcendence - $18.3 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $14.2 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $18.4 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Return of the BT
  • Bears - $7.3 million
  • Transcendence - $22.0 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $12.5 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $17.1 million
  • 11:33:39 pm jonjon
  • Bears - $6.15 million
  • Transcendence - $24.63 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $15.25 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $15.70 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Ryan Jayden
  • Bears - $6.45 million
  • Transcendence - $19.8 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $10.2 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $17.3 million
  • 11:33:39 pm Luan Nguyen
  • Bears - $7.1 million
  • Transcendence - $20.5 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $14 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $14.7 million
  • 11:33:39 pm YeeHaa
  • Bears - $7.7 million
  • Transcendence - $29.2 million
  • A Haunted House 2 - $13.5 million
  • Heaven is for Real - $13.9 million

The current standings heading into this weekend can be seen on the leaderboard here.

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