Box Office Predictions

Box Office Predictions: 'The Expendables 3' Attempts to Hold Off the 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles'

Or are we looking at another one and done from the champ?

Weekend Box-Office Predictions for The Expendables 3

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was the (slightly) surprising winner last week, with the actual shocker being how much it won by. Can it repeat? Just looking at it leads one to think, "Eh, super frontloaded", which should be accurate. I'm calling for a 57 percent dip, but even that's not enough to knock it down to the silver medal. Why? Because it's facing a fading giant. Turtles would have to fall over 60 percent and have our next contender exceed tracking in a big way to lose the crown. I can't see history repeating itself this weekend.

For evidence, look no further than The Expendables 3 tracking poorly. According to the numbers, this would indicate a continual downward spiral (domestically). These films, chocked full of action "stars", are now meant mostly for the international audiences. Here in the U.S. I think demand has been slightly underestimated, but it's tough to put it above the flat $27 million I'm calling for. Even that's above tracking, and no one seems terribly excited about the franchise as a whole. I'm planning on the "potential" finale bounce, but it's easy to think it could open far lower.

Let's Be Cops has been extremely well marketed given it seems to be the very definition of a one-note joke. I still need to see the film, but that 16 percent it's rocking on RottenTomatoes doesn't spell good things, especially after this weekend. It's gonna be drop central! However, this time around my call is $25 million, again above tracking. I'm almost daring you to go under, aren't I?

Finally, let's take a look at The Giver. Clearly, I just looked at The Host for this one, although this ill-conceived project looks to have even more star power. How did they get Meryl Streep into this? And why exactly did they even do that, given the target audience probably doesn't give a hoot about Academy cred? The sci-fi concept seems fairly cool, which is even more reason to surmise they've messed it up. In the dystopian YA cinematic universe there's The Hunger Games ... and everyone else. My prediction is $15.4 million. Yep, I'm going under on this little title.

That's all from party central, get your predictions in early and often!

Current Record: 36-76-5 against the wisdom of the crowds.

Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking

  • The Expendables 3: $23 million
  • Let's Be Cops: $21 million
  • The Giver: $17 million

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.

Time for posting predictions for this weekend has expired.

Predictions for this weekend were due by
end of day Thursday, August 14th

Click Here to see this week's reader predictions.

For a complete look at the rules and regulations on how to compete click the "Rules & Regulations" tab at the top of the page right here.

Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for August 15 - August 17, 2014

  1. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was #1 at the box-office
  2. The Expendables 3 () - $27 million
    Playing in 3,000 theaters ($9,000 avg.) / 33%
  3. Let's Be Cops () - $25 million
    Playing in 2,936 theaters ($8,515 avg.) / 20%
  4. Guardians of the Galaxy () - $21.1 million
    Playing in 4,088 theaters ($5,161 avg.) / $170 million budget / 90%
  5. The Giver () - $15.4 million
    Playing in 2,800 theaters ($5,500 avg.) / 35%
  6. Into the Storm () - $8 million
    Playing in 2,323 theaters ($3,444 avg.) / $50 million budget / 20%
  7. The Hundred-Foot Journey () - $5.9 million
    Playing in 2,023 theaters ($2,916 avg.) / $22 million budget
  8. Lucy () - $4.6 million
    Playing in 2,800 theaters ($1,643 avg.) / $40 million budget / 66%
  9. Step Up All In () - $2.9 million
    Playing in 2,072 theaters ($1,400 avg.)
  10. Get On Up () - $2.4 million
    Playing in 2,469 theaters ($972 avg.) / 78%
Click here to browse our box-office charts and compare Laremy's predictions

79 Readers Have Posted Predictions

  • 7:41:54 pm cougarfaster96
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $27.4 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $23.8 million
  • The Giver - $15.2 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $24 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Austin Gorski
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $27.4 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $24.2 million
  • The Giver - $14.5 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $25.0 million
  • 7:41:54 pm zm
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $25.1 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $23.2 million
  • The Giver - $16.3 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $20.7 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Maj. Kong
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $26.5 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $29.7 million
  • The Giver - $15.0 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $19.8 million
  • 7:41:54 pm thefutureofhollywood
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $24.3 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $25.1 million
  • The Giver - $15.4 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $22.7 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Winchester
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $26.95 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $25.15 million
  • The Giver - $13.22 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $20.94 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Arthur Carlson
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $25.5 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $15.8 million
  • The Giver - $15.2 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $22.6 million
  • 7:41:54 pm andyluvsfilms
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $29 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $26.4 million
  • The Giver - $14.9 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $27 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Bazellis
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $26.65 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $19.5 million
  • The Giver - $17.9 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $24.8 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Guthrie
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $30 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $25 million
  • The Giver - $15.5 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $25.1 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Andy Athens
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $31 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $28.6 million
  • The Giver - $13.5 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $22 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Phoxhunter
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $26.2 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $24.4 million
  • The Giver - $15.8 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $20.3 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Rob
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $26.2 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $24.3 million
  • The Giver - $13.1 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $19.05 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Roger
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $29.1 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $27.2 million
  • The Giver - $11.3 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $15.6 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Stephen Jay
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $25.3 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $23.1 million
  • The Giver - $11.6 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $19.1 million
  • 7:41:54 pm rusty
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $24.7 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $33.3 million
  • The Giver - $13.4 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $26.8 million
  • 7:41:54 pm ldm2006
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $27.5 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $22.4 million
  • The Giver - $17.9 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $29.2 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Torryz
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $35.1 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $19.5 million
  • The Giver - $17.5 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $13.5 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Michael
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $28.5 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $29.2 million
  • The Giver - $14.3 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $17.9 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Dave AD
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $26.5 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $35.5 million
  • The Giver - $25.5 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $21.5 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Stringer Bell
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $25.2 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $21.5 million
  • The Giver - $13.8 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $20.6 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Peete
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $32.2 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $23.4 million
  • The Giver - $12.1 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $24 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Vibhor Panda
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $26.7 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $27.3 million
  • The Giver - $14.4 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $19 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Athar
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $26.8 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $22.4 million
  • The Giver - $13.6 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $21.6 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Driver
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $26.8 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $28.2 million
  • The Giver - $16.7 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $20.1 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Ryguy815
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $30 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $35 million
  • The Giver - $17 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $25 million
  • 7:41:54 pm coltonhaynes22
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $30.3 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $26.1 million
  • The Giver - $18.6 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $20.2 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Truman Leonard
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $36.8 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $14.6 million
  • The Giver - $16.7 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $11.4 million
  • 7:41:54 pm John D.
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $31.3 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $22.4 million
  • The Giver - $19.6 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $18.2 million
  • 7:41:54 pm MM
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $27 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $28 million
  • The Giver - $15.6 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $22.1 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Daz Patatoes
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $27.2 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $32.1 million
  • The Giver - $12.9 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $24.7 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Kessler
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $29.4 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $21.2 million
  • The Giver - $14.3 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $25.7 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Alan Smithee
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $26.1 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $18.4 million
  • The Giver - $7.7 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $21.4 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Jarret
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $27 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $25 million
  • The Giver - $23 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $21 million
  • 7:41:54 pm TJ
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $29.5 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $36 million
  • The Giver - $17.2 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $31.1 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Jason Lavender
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $27.6 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $22.1 million
  • The Giver - $16.8 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $23.3 million
  • 7:41:54 pm HazardousKirby
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $30.0 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $21.3 million
  • The Giver - $20.6 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $12.4 million
  • 7:41:54 pm maja
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $27.1 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $24.5 million
  • The Giver - $14.7 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $23.0 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Erik
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $31.7 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $20.4 million
  • The Giver - $26.5 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $12.7 million
  • 7:41:54 pm dam94
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $26.7 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $25.4 million
  • The Giver - $18.9 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $29.8 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Jack Tyler
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $25 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $15 million
  • The Giver - $11 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $19 million
  • 7:41:54 pm TimmaeXVX
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $24.9 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $16.2 million
  • The Giver - $18.4 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $33.6 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Eric83
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $28.0 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $28.1 million
  • The Giver - $19.7 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $22.3 million
  • 7:41:54 pm cooly MR
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $26.6 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $24.5 million
  • The Giver - $14.3 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $24.5 million
  • 7:41:54 pm paststrange
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $25.6 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $27.2 million
  • The Giver - $16.9 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $19.9 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Joe K
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $27.6 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $26 million
  • The Giver - $15.4 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $19.9 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Ugueth
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $24.5 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $28.1 million
  • The Giver - $16.4 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $23.0 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Rach
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $27.3 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $22.1 million
  • The Giver - $13.1 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $16.1 million
  • 7:41:54 pm cineJAB
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $24.1 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $19.9 million
  • The Giver - $31.3 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $8.7 million
  • 7:41:54 pm PJ Edwards
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $22.6 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $18.4 million
  • The Giver - $18.8 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $19.6 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Israel Valencia
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $27.1 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $24.9 million
  • The Giver - $13.1 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $27.3 million
  • 7:41:54 pm moasey
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $25.5 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $30.3 million
  • The Giver - $12.7 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $14.4 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Jimmy B
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $23.9 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $22.8 million
  • The Giver - $13.2 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $15.7 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Peter Bandrowsky
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $24.6 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $26.4 million
  • The Giver - $8.7 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $18.7 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Christian
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $27.4 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $26.4 million
  • The Giver - $14.5 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $18.5 million
  • 7:41:54 pm GregDinskisk
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $30.33 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $18.77 million
  • The Giver - $12.22 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $20.11 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Abraham Sánchez
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $27.55 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $21.42 million
  • The Giver - $17.36 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $25.1 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Kieran
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $29.5 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $26.8 million
  • The Giver - $14.2 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $12.1 million
  • 7:41:54 pm tomsen
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $28.8 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $28.6 million
  • The Giver - $20.4 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $22.2 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Vaus
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $28.28 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $21.21 million
  • The Giver - $16.16 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $17.17 million
  • 7:41:54 pm austinjoel
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $30.9 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $29.8 million
  • The Giver - $19.1 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $26.9 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Shifty
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $22.8 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $26.2 million
  • The Giver - $16.1 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $31.1 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Bob Phelan
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $33.3 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $21.75 million
  • The Giver - $15.75 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $19.75 million
  • 7:41:54 pm YeeHaa
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $29.7 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $24.7 million
  • The Giver - $16.1 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $15.3 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Citizen Khan
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $25.4 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $27.2 million
  • The Giver - $14.2 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $29.1 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Andrew13
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $30.4 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $25.7 million
  • The Giver - $14.1 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $19.8 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Luan Nguyen
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $25.4 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $25.2 million
  • The Giver - $16.4 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $17.4 million
  • 7:41:54 pm John Santos
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $27.6 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $25.1 million
  • The Giver - $13.4 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $22.8 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Matt Taylor
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $24.3 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $21.2 million
  • The Giver - $11.6 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $23.7 million
  • 7:41:54 pm jonjon
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $29.5 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $24.5 million
  • The Giver - $16.3 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $27.3 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Nathan
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $22.5 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $24.8 million
  • The Giver - $13.9 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $16.5 million
  • 7:41:54 pm kyle coley
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $27.6 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $25.6 million
  • The Giver - $13.4 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $23.4 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Sensei White Lotus
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $26 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $27 million
  • The Giver - $15 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $19 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Matthew Reimer
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $31.1 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $26.8 million
  • The Giver - $15.4 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $25.6 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Return of the BT
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $24.05 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $18.35 million
  • The Giver - $14.85 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $19.55 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Ryan Jayden
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $26.34 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $20.01 million
  • The Giver - $9.95 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $17.8 million
  • 7:41:54 pm J T
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $22.4 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $16.75 million
  • The Giver - $14.05 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $16.74 million
  • 7:41:54 pm iFearJohnny
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $23.25 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $29 million
  • The Giver - $17.6 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $20 million
  • 7:41:54 pm Exxdee13
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $24.8 million
  • The Expendables 3 - $21.1 million
  • The Giver - $13.7 million
  • Let's Be Cops - $19.3 million

The current standings heading into this weekend can be seen on the leaderboard here.

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  • Bazellis

    The online leak of The Expendables 3 will hurt.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ryguy815/ Ryguy815

    The PG-13 rating will help The Expendables 3 win the weekend I think.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ian/ Ian

    What a crapshoot weekend. I have Turtles dropping further (60%), but The Expendables opening lower. And I don't know what to do with Let's Be Cops, though it made $5 million on Wednesday which seems to bode well for $20 million-plus for the weekend. In fact, had it opened Friday it probably would have taken first place. As it is, the top four could all be within $5 million of each other. I'll be avoiding all of them, heading to one of the local art houses and FINALLY seeing Boyhood tomorrow night. I may also try and catch a repeat of X-Men or a first viewing of Edge of Tomorrow at the second run theatre.

  • cineJAB

    can't imagine a police comedy is going to do terribly well this week with the Ferguson scandals.