Box Office Predictions

Box Office Predictions: 'Hunger Games: Catching Fire' to Top 'Frozen' for Second Weekend Win

Let's see what you do with this Thanksgiving's crop of films

Weekend Box-Office Predictions

Before we get underway, I'd like to let everyone know the words of this post are mine, but the predictions are Laremy's as he was kind enough to offer up some predictions before going on his Thanksgiving vacation, but he left the commentary to me. Let's have a look.

Hunger Games: Catching Fire box office predictionsLooking to repeat at #1 is The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and after setting a November opening weekend record at $158 million last weekend it only stands to reason it would have a significant drop in its second weekend, but even still, while Laremy is predicting a 59% drop, that still means $63.3 million at the box office. Will you dare go higher or perhaps lower? The first film dropped 61.6%, but that was a March opener. Looking at another popular franchise title in The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2, which opened last November to $141 million, it dropped 69.1%. With Catching Fire's "A" CinemaScore it should have good word of mouth, but it also has a little bit of competition.

Expanding from only one successful theater last weekend, Disney's Frozen expands into 3,742 theaters this weekend and while the reviews have been largely positive, the marketing has been severely hit and miss. Two years ago Disney released Tangled on the same weekend to the tune of $48.7 million where its competition was the second weekend for another major franchise you may have heard of, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1. Last year the studio released Wreck-It Ralph on the first weekend in November and without any competition it scored $49 million. Laremy's confidence in Frozen, however, isn't that bullish.

I can only assume it's due to the marketing he believes Frozen will secure only $29.9 million. According to Fandango, however, Frozen is their top advance ticket-seller among animated original films (non-sequels), outselling Pixar's Brave, the previous record-holder, at the same point in the sales cycle on Fandango. Reader predictions on this one could be interesting and if I could add a little fuel to the fire, I wouldn't be surprised to see this one land over $50 million.

Moving down the line we come to the latest Jason Statham actioner, Homefront. This time Statham is taking on James Franco as Gator Bodine and while I quite liked it (read my review here), the RottenTomatoes rating is a mere 32%. Laremy predicts the film will score $9 million from 2,572 theaters. I can't tell if that's good or not, but I do know I'd rather see more Statham actioners like this one rather than most of the so-called action films Hollywood is churning out these days.

Finally, it was a toss-up as to whether we went with Black Nativity, Oldboy or Philomena for our fourth film in the Box Office Challenge this weekend and I thought Oldboy, which FilmDistrict is opening in only 583 theaters, would be the more interesting choice.

Laremy doesn't expect Lee's latest, which is currently sporting a 46% at RottenTomatoes, to even crack the top ten, predicting a $1.7 million finish for the remake of the much-loved Korean original. Do you see it doing any better?

With that, I'll step aside and leave the rest of the predicting to you. I'm sure you'll all have Catching Fire at #1, but how big a drop will you predict and how high (or low) will you go on Frozen? Closer to Laremy's sub-$30 million number or a $40+ million number closer to the previous results of Tangled and Wreck-It Ralph?

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.

Time for posting predictions for this weekend has expired.

Predictions for this weekend were due by
end of day Thursday, November 28th

Click Here to see this week's reader predictions.

For a complete look at the rules and regulations on how to compete click the "Rules & Regulations" tab at the top of the page right here.

Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for November 29 - December 1, 2013

  1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire was #1 at the box-office
  2. Frozen () - $29.9 million
    Playing in 3,742 theaters ($7,990 avg.) / $150 million budget / 89%
  3. Thor: The Dark World () - $10.3 million
    Playing in 3,286 theaters ($3,135 avg.) / $170 million budget / 66%
  4. Homefront () - $9 million
    Playing in 2,572 theaters ($3,499 avg.) / 39%
  5. The Best Man Holiday () - $7.4 million
    Playing in 1,717 theaters ($4,310 avg.) / $17 million budget / 67%
  6. Black Nativity () - $6.8 million
    Playing in 1,516 theaters ($4,485 avg.)
  7. Delivery Man () - $5.4 million
    Playing in 3,036 theaters ($1,779 avg.) / $26 million budget / 38%
  8. The Book Thief () - $4.3 million
    Playing in 1,234 theaters ($3,485 avg.) / 49%
  9. Dallas Buyers Club () - $3.5 million
    Playing in 696 theaters ($5,029 avg.) / 93%
  10. Free Birds () - $3.4 million
    Playing in 2,287 theaters ($1,487 avg.) / $55 million budget / 18%
Click here to browse our box-office charts and compare Laremy's predictions

84 Readers Have Posted Predictions

  • 5:10:10 pm Hrtn4Sqrtn
  • Frozen - $42.3 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $60.4 million
  • Oldboy - $1.9 million
  • Homefront - $11.3 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Andrew J.S.
  • Frozen - $31.1 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $63.2 million
  • Oldboy - $2.05 million
  • Homefront - $8.1 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Fredie Fred
  • Frozen - $47.9 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $65.3 million
  • Oldboy - $2.01 million
  • Homefront - $7.9 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Exxdee13
  • Frozen - $50.3 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $62.2 million
  • Oldboy - $1.8 million
  • Homefront - $6.5 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Cordia
  • Frozen - $43.3 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $62.6 million
  • Oldboy - $1.4 million
  • Homefront - $8.2 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Dave A
  • Frozen - $35.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $55.5 million
  • Oldboy - $3.5 million
  • Homefront - $7.5 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Driver
  • Frozen - $35.8 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $66.7 million
  • Oldboy - $1.3 million
  • Homefront - $7.2 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Bertram J. Krogh
  • Frozen - $36.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $59.0 million
  • Oldboy - $1.75 million
  • Homefront - $7.5 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Matt P
  • Frozen - $44.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $62.5 million
  • Oldboy - $1.25 million
  • Homefront - $8.4 million
  • 5:10:10 pm andyluvsfilms
  • Frozen - $43 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $64.1 million
  • Oldboy - $2.3 million
  • Homefront - $7.4 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Jason Lavender
  • Frozen - $35.6 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $60.8 million
  • Oldboy - $2.3 million
  • Homefront - $6.4 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Israel Valencia
  • Frozen - $61.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $35.7 million
  • Oldboy - $1.85 million
  • Homefront - $9.12 million
  • 5:10:10 pm NitPicker68
  • Frozen - $50.2 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $52.8 million
  • Oldboy - $.572 million
  • Homefront - $5.04 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Shane O'Neal
  • Frozen - $45 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $67 million
  • Oldboy - $2 million
  • Homefront - $7 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Truman Leonard
  • Frozen - $32 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $67.5 million
  • Oldboy - $1.5 million
  • Homefront - $6.5 million
  • 5:10:10 pm EPayneDDS
  • Frozen - $40.1 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $64.4 million
  • Oldboy - $2.5 million
  • Homefront - $5.8 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Arthur Carlson
  • Frozen - $52.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $68.1 million
  • Oldboy - $.95 million
  • Homefront - $5.7 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Bazellis
  • Frozen - $72.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $49.5 million
  • Oldboy - $1.35 million
  • Homefront - $10.42 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Athar
  • Frozen - $37.4 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $62.5 million
  • Oldboy - $1.9 million
  • Homefront - $7.6 million
  • 5:10:10 pm ldm2006
  • Frozen - $42.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $71.2 million
  • Oldboy - $2.1 million
  • Homefront - $10.5 million
  • 5:10:10 pm cineJAB
  • Frozen - $36.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $76.3 million
  • Oldboy - $0.78 million
  • Homefront - $7.5 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Jimmy B
  • Frozen - $51.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $64.3 million
  • Oldboy - $2.5 million
  • Homefront - $8.7 million
  • 5:10:10 pm The Movie Guru
  • Frozen - $54.4 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $59.7 million
  • Oldboy - $3.01 million
  • Homefront - $9.3 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Ron Oneal Fresh
  • Frozen - $35 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $69.3 million
  • Oldboy - $2 million
  • Homefront - $6 million
  • 5:10:10 pm themoviewatcher
  • Frozen - $30.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $62.7 million
  • Oldboy - $3.5 million
  • Homefront - $8.5 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Mykael
  • Frozen - $45.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $58.6 million
  • Oldboy - $1.49 million
  • Homefront - $8.4 million
  • 5:10:10 pm HazardousKirby
  • Frozen - $50.0 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $65.0 million
  • Oldboy - $3.4 million
  • Homefront - $9.7 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Zevastian
  • Frozen - $37.8 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $66.7 million
  • Oldboy - $1.4 million
  • Homefront - $7.8 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Bruce_Wayne
  • Frozen - $59.8 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $65.6 million
  • Oldboy - $1.9 million
  • Homefront - $9.2 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Ryan Jayden
  • Frozen - $55.55 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $60.0 million
  • Oldboy - $1.05 million
  • Homefront - $5.55 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Shifty
  • Frozen - $51.6 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $59.2 million
  • Oldboy - $1.5 million
  • Homefront - $8.51 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Winchester
  • Frozen - $44.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $66.1 million
  • Oldboy - $1.4 million
  • Homefront - $7.8 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Jon Morris
  • Frozen - $34.2 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $59.9 million
  • Oldboy - $7.9 million
  • Homefront - $12.5 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Matt Taylor
  • Frozen - $50.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $62.8 million
  • Oldboy - $1.2 million
  • Homefront - $9.4 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Andrew13
  • Frozen - $46.4 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $65.1 million
  • Oldboy - $1.4 million
  • Homefront - $11.6 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Rach
  • Frozen - $54.3 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $67.2 million
  • Oldboy - $1.03 million
  • Homefront - $6.2 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Kessler
  • Frozen - $64.4 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $30.1 million
  • Oldboy - $1.2 million
  • Homefront - $7.1 million
  • 5:10:10 pm GregDinskisk
  • Frozen - $56.66 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $75.55 million
  • Oldboy - $2.224 million
  • Homefront - $7.758 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Michael
  • Frozen - $43.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $62.2 million
  • Oldboy - $2.6 million
  • Homefront - $7.4 million
  • 5:10:10 pm coltonhaynes22
  • Frozen - $42.2 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $65.7 million
  • Oldboy - $.511 million
  • Homefront - $8.4 million
  • 5:10:10 pm zm
  • Frozen - $45.2 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $67.5 million
  • Oldboy - $1.7 million
  • Homefront - $7.9 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Roger
  • Frozen - $51.1 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $62.2 million
  • Oldboy - $1.1 million
  • Homefront - $8.4 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Baca
  • Frozen - $41.9 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $52.8 million
  • Oldboy - $3.9 million
  • Homefront - $10.4 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Salvador Ramos
  • Frozen - $30 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $63.3 million
  • Oldboy - $1.7 million
  • Homefront - $9 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Chinoiserie
  • Frozen - $48 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $67 million
  • Oldboy - $1.9 million
  • Homefront - $8 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Corbin
  • Frozen - $51.3 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $74.7 million
  • Oldboy - $1.2 million
  • Homefront - $6.8 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Heather Martin
  • Frozen - $44.6 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $58.2 million
  • Oldboy - $1.35 million
  • Homefront - $7.75 million
  • 5:10:10 pm austinjoel
  • Frozen - $47.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $65.4 million
  • Oldboy - $4.1 million
  • Homefront - $11.3 million
  • 5:10:10 pm maja
  • Frozen - $46.2 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $61.8 million
  • Oldboy - $2.0 million
  • Homefront - $8.7 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Austin Gorski
  • Frozen - $50.4 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $66.3 million
  • Oldboy - $1.2 million
  • Homefront - $6.3 million
  • 5:10:10 pm TimmaeXVX
  • Frozen - $41.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $71.3 million
  • Oldboy - $1.23 million
  • Homefront - $5.9 million
  • 5:10:10 pm MM
  • Frozen - $34 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $64.5 million
  • Oldboy - $1.8 million
  • Homefront - $12 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Ryguy815
  • Frozen - $35 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $65 million
  • Oldboy - $3 million
  • Homefront - $8 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Abraham Sánchez
  • Frozen - $52.38 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $63.83 million
  • Oldboy - $1.807 million
  • Homefront - $9.002 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Eric83
  • Frozen - $42.1 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $61.9 million
  • Oldboy - $1.37 million
  • Homefront - $7.4 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Peete
  • Frozen - $36.4 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $64.3 million
  • Oldboy - $2.2 million
  • Homefront - $8.7 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Hudsucker
  • Frozen - $36.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $59.5 million
  • Oldboy - $3.4 million
  • Homefront - $8.2 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Rob
  • Frozen - $59.0 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $66.0 million
  • Oldboy - $0.89 million
  • Homefront - $6.0 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Django
  • Frozen - $33.1 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $63.2 million
  • Oldboy - $1.7 million
  • Homefront - $9.5 million
  • 5:10:10 pm jonjon
  • Frozen - $48.07 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $63.59 million
  • Oldboy - $.939 million
  • Homefront - $6.14 million
  • 5:10:10 pm cougarfaster96
  • Frozen - $55.4 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $60.6 million
  • Oldboy - $4 million
  • Homefront - $8.9 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Alan Smithee
  • Frozen - $27.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $59.9 million
  • Oldboy - $2.05 million
  • Homefront - $7.6 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Bri
  • Frozen - $53 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $60 million
  • Oldboy - $9 million
  • Homefront - $12.5 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Maj. Kong
  • Frozen - $38.2 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $65.0 million
  • Oldboy - $1.3 million
  • Homefront - $5.4 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Bob Phelan
  • Frozen - $47.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $58.75 million
  • Oldboy - $2.1 million
  • Homefront - $8.25 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Alex Thomas
  • Frozen - $40.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $56.9 million
  • Oldboy - $3.2 million
  • Homefront - $5.2 million
  • 5:10:10 pm tonypdl
  • Frozen - $58.1 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $73.0 million
  • Oldboy - $1.9 million
  • Homefront - $8.8 million
  • 5:10:10 pm dam94
  • Frozen - $52.3 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $65.4 million
  • Oldboy - $3.7 million
  • Homefront - $8.6 million
  • 5:10:10 pm kyle coley
  • Frozen - $32.3 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $60.4 million
  • Oldboy - $1.2 million
  • Homefront - $8.4 million
  • 5:10:10 pm tomsen
  • Frozen - $48.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $58.5 million
  • Oldboy - $2.2 million
  • Homefront - $8.0 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Nathan
  • Frozen - $27.6 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $66.2 million
  • Oldboy - $2.43 million
  • Homefront - $6.6 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Ian
  • Frozen - $60 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $63 million
  • Oldboy - $2 million
  • Homefront - $8 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Stephen Jay
  • Frozen - $51.1 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $59.6 million
  • Oldboy - $0.72 million
  • Homefront - $5.4 million
  • 5:10:10 pm James Chewka
  • Frozen - $34.4 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $60.1 million
  • Oldboy - $1.75 million
  • Homefront - $11.1 million
  • 5:10:10 pm kathrynlynn
  • Frozen - $46.3 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $58.9 million
  • Oldboy - $3.4 million
  • Homefront - $6.1 million
  • 5:10:10 pm jinjuriki187
  • Frozen - $32 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $65 million
  • Oldboy - $1 million
  • Homefront - $2.3 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Jack Tyler
  • Frozen - $55 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $35 million
  • Oldboy - $2 million
  • Homefront - $8.5 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Michael Harrison
  • Frozen - $48.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $68.7 million
  • Oldboy - $1.725 million
  • Homefront - $11.2 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Bob McHugh
  • Frozen - $52.12 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $58.32 million
  • Oldboy - $7.54 million
  • Homefront - $6.56 million
  • 5:10:10 pm lapcat01
  • Frozen - $44.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $62.0 million
  • Oldboy - $1.7 million
  • Homefront - $9.0 million
  • 5:10:10 pm rusty
  • Frozen - $36.6 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $58.4 million
  • Oldboy - $1.28 million
  • Homefront - $8.3 million
  • 5:10:10 pm Zachary Gerberick
  • Frozen - $49.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $63.2 million
  • Oldboy - $1.2 million
  • Homefront - $6.7 million
  • 5:10:10 pm YeeHaa
  • Frozen - $57.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $68.4 million
  • Oldboy - $1.5 million
  • Homefront - $4.5 million
  • 5:10:10 pm PJ Edwards
  • Frozen - $61.4 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $70.2 million
  • Oldboy - $1.3 million
  • Homefront - $4.6 million

The current standings heading into this weekend can be seen on the leaderboard here.

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  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Hrtn4Sqrtn/ Hrtn4Sqrtn

    Thanks for taking the time to do this on Thanksgiving Brad!

  • Shane O’Neal

    Frozen did $15.3 million on Wednesday, which is more than what Tangled did. This could be interesting...

    • Jack Bauer

      Frozen did 15 million with 3d on its first day wedensday. Catching fire did 20 million on wedensday without 3d on its 6th day in theaters. There is nothing interesting here Catching Fire is going to win this week as well as next week.

      • PJ Edwards

        Wouldn't count next weekends win for catching fire this early. There is ZERO competition for families for Frozen.

        • Jack Bauer

          K I will it will be Narrow but I think Catching Fire will do 40 million plus next weekend as well.

      • Shane O’Neal

        I meant interesting in how well Frozen's going to do in comparison to Tangled, not with Catching Fire.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

    Kudos to you Brad for filling in. You luuuuv Laremy!! Happy Thanksgiving

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ian/ Ian

    Had Laremy waited to see how Frozen did on Wednesday, methinks he would have gone waaay higher. If it performs similarly to Tangled based on the Wednesday start it should hit $60 million for the three-day. So it could be a close weekend, but Catching Fire is performing very well, much better than the Twilight movies. I expect it will perform like the Harry Potter films, but will it do as well as The Goblet of Fire, which only dropped 45% over Thanksgiving in its second weekend? Or will it be more like Deathly Hallows 1, which dropped 60%. So far it's performed somewhat similarly to both in terms of percentages, so the big reveal will still be how it does on Friday. My bet is still on a 60% drop, which would be enough for $63 million and a close win over Frozen. All the other new releases are DOA but I'm not interested in any of them anyway (though I may double feature the two Oldboy movies at some point). Having seen Catching Fire last night I'm hoping to catch Dallas Buyers Club and maybe Philomena this weekend.

  • PJ Edwards

    .....29M for Frozen? Even before OD, that was not a well informed predict. THR and Variety had tracking at 70M + for the 5 day, which would in the very least put it near Tangled. And you have to consider last family film was mid range performing free birds, and factor in solid reviews, long holiday week and you've got a hit.