Box Office Predictions

Box Office Predictions: 'Hunger Games: Catching Fire' vs. 'Frozen' on the Weekend Hollywood Forgot

Only one wide release this weekend, what gives?

Weekend Box-Office Predictions

FrozenFrozen should have enough momentum in its sophomore weekend to capture the crown, a rare feat (not winning first weekend, then winning second) made possible by studios largely avoiding the timeframe. I suppose the theory is you've doorbusted your little heart out, and thus don't have money left over for movie tickets. For proof of concept, last year the top twelve at the box office went from $200.4 million all the way down to $106 million. Gulp. Still, Frozen, with that sparkly A+ CinemaScore, is well positioned to rake in the dollars that are out there, so I'm calling for a modest 44 percent dip to $37.7 million.

This means The Hunger Games: Catching Fire will not be earning the coveted three-peat. Thus, unless The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug can do it next weekend, only Gravity will have won thrice for the entirety of 2013. Now then, I've got the Katniss special coming in at $34.1 million, so there is a little wiggle room if folks want to call for the slight upset.

Out of the Furnace is mostly doomed, low tracking, little awareness, and a plot that only appeals to those looking for a dark time. Not many people are going for that after the gravy hangover, so $5 million is about the best Christian Bale and company can hope for. Even that is over tracking.

Lastly, let's take a look at Homefront. Uh, why Homefront? Because there's not much else to look at unless you want to debate Inside Llewyn Davis limited release numbers in the comments.

Although it received an "okay" B CinemaScore, I've got it as the biggest drop-off of the weekend, around 56 percent. What's my reasoning? No built-in audience, not much buzz, and a new release attacking the same demo. My prediction is $3 million, but clearly it's going to be a razor-thin margin either way you go on this title.

Speaking of going, that's it from sunny Seattle, now it's time for you to get your predictions in. Get in there and mix it up, make us all proud.

Current Record: 32-56-4 against the wisdom of crowds.

Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking

  • Out of the Furnace: $4 Million

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.

Time for posting predictions for this weekend has expired.

Predictions for this weekend were due by
end of day Thursday, December 5th

Click Here to see this week's reader predictions.

For a complete look at the rules and regulations on how to compete click the "Rules & Regulations" tab at the top of the page right here.

Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for December 6 - December 8, 2013

  1. Frozen was #1 at the box-office
  2. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire () - $34.1 million
    Playing in 4,163 theaters ($8,191 avg.) / $130 million budget / 89%
  3. Thor: The Dark World () - $6.6 million
    Playing in 2,800 theaters ($2,357 avg.) / $170 million budget / 66%
  4. Delivery Man () - $5.1 million
    Playing in 3,036 theaters ($1,680 avg.) / $26 million budget / 38%
  5. Out of the Furnace () - $5 million
    Playing in 2,000 theaters ($2,500 avg.) / 53%
  6. The Best Man Holiday () - $4.4 million
    Playing in 1,500 theaters ($2,933 avg.) / $17 million budget / 67%
  7. The Book Thief () - $3.1 million
    Playing in 1,234 theaters ($2,512 avg.) / 49%
  8. Homefront () - $3 million
    Playing in 2,572 theaters ($1,166 avg.) / $22 million budget / 39%
  9. Philomena () - $2.2 million
    Playing in 753 theaters ($2,922 avg.) / 92%
  10. Dallas Buyers Club () - $2.1 million
    Playing in 696 theaters ($3,017 avg.) / 93%
Click here to browse our box-office charts and compare Laremy's predictions

85 Readers Have Posted Predictions

  • 5:45:50 pm Andrew J.S.
  • Frozen - $32.1 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $31.7 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3.4 million
  • Homefront - $1.8 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Athar
  • Frozen - $33.2 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $38.5 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $8.2 million
  • Homefront - $2.6 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Kessler
  • Frozen - $36.8 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $33.2 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3.1 million
  • Homefront - $2.5 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Phoxhunter
  • Frozen - $35.3 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $32.4 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $5.1 million
  • Homefront - $1.8 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Matt P
  • Frozen - $42.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $31.25 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $2.4 million
  • Homefront - $2.25 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Dave AD
  • Frozen - $40.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $30.5 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.5 million
  • Homefront - $2.5 million
  • 5:45:50 pm maja
  • Frozen - $41.9 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $32.9 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $6.1 million
  • Homefront - $3.3 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Jason Lavender
  • Frozen - $36.2 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $35.8 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.5 million
  • Homefront - $2.6 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Nathan
  • Frozen - $36.4 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $37.0 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.2 million
  • Homefront - $2.84 million
  • 5:45:50 pm TimmaeXVX
  • Frozen - $40.3 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $45.6 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $1.9 million
  • Homefront - $2.4 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Predator XXI
  • Frozen - $31.3 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $30.8 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $5.6 million
  • Homefront - $2.4 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Zayden Qadardaan
  • Frozen - $36.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $39.9 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.6 million
  • Homefront - $2.4 million
  • 5:45:50 pm GregDinskisk
  • Frozen - $41.11 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $34.79 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3.342 million
  • Homefront - $2.222 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Truman Leonard
  • Frozen - $35.6 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $32.4 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.6 million
  • Homefront - $2 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Vibhor Panda
  • Frozen - $34.8 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $35.3 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $7.3 million
  • Homefront - $3.1 million
  • 5:45:50 pm ldm2006
  • Frozen - $35.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $34.3 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.9 million
  • Homefront - $2.4 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Greenwell39
  • Frozen - $33.8 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $35.1 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3.7 million
  • Homefront - $2.8 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Arthur Carlson
  • Frozen - $31.2 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $30.6 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.8 million
  • Homefront - $3.4 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Rach
  • Frozen - $42.8 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $32.6 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $2.3 million
  • Homefront - $1.7 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Burt Mizaki
  • Frozen - $38 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $34.3 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.9 million
  • Homefront - $3.1 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Driver
  • Frozen - $33.4 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $36.7 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.3 million
  • Homefront - $3.2 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Mykael
  • Frozen - $39.92 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $40.7 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $6 million
  • Homefront - $3.18 million
  • 5:45:50 pm PJ Edwards
  • Frozen - $41.20 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $38.48 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3.7 million
  • Homefront - $2.8 million
  • 5:45:50 pm tonypdl
  • Frozen - $34.3 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $30.1 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $6.87 million
  • Homefront - $3.21 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Stephen Jay
  • Frozen - $45.8 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $40.8 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $5.5 million
  • Homefront - $2.8 million
  • 5:45:50 pm dam94
  • Frozen - $46.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $32.1 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3.8 million
  • Homefront - $2.9 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Ian
  • Frozen - $33.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $29.6 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3 million
  • Homefront - $2.8 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Tom Knoblauch
  • Frozen - $44.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $33.2 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $9.9 million
  • Homefront - $1.9 million
  • 5:45:50 pm andyluvsfilms
  • Frozen - $37.2 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $33.5 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $7.1 million
  • Homefront - $2.9 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Jon Morris
  • Frozen - $38.4 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $34.5 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $2.8 million
  • Homefront - $6.5 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Torryz
  • Frozen - $41.3 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $33.2 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3.2 million
  • Homefront - $2.8 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Baca
  • Frozen - $38.1 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $38.1 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3.6 million
  • Homefront - $2.7 million
  • 5:45:50 pm coltonhaynes22
  • Frozen - $36.9 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $35.2 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $6.8 million
  • Homefront - $3.1 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Bertram J. Krogh
  • Frozen - $39.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $31.0 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.3 million
  • Homefront - $2.4 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Shifty
  • Frozen - $41.3 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $29.9 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.5 million
  • Homefront - $2.4 million
  • 5:45:50 pm John D.
  • Frozen - $31.9 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $36.8 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3.8 million
  • Homefront - $2.2 million
  • 5:45:50 pm G-Man
  • Frozen - $39.9 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $25.2 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.0 million
  • Homefront - $2.7 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Israel Valencia
  • Frozen - $38.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $35.9 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.8 million
  • Homefront - $2.8 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Eric83
  • Frozen - $36.4 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $35.4 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $2.92 million
  • Homefront - $1.83 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Jimmy B
  • Frozen - $44.9 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $36.5 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3.8 million
  • Homefront - $2.6 million
  • 5:45:50 pm kyle coley
  • Frozen - $35.4 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $39.6 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $5.6 million
  • Homefront - $3.5 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Corbin
  • Frozen - $41.2 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $35.6 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3.5 million
  • Homefront - $4.1 million
  • 5:45:50 pm AdamsLostApple
  • Frozen - $41.3 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $40.3 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $8.9 million
  • Homefront - $6.5 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Rob
  • Frozen - $32.0 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $33.0 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $6.2 million
  • Homefront - $3.1 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Roger
  • Frozen - $38.6 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $30.1 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.1 million
  • Homefront - $2.8 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Exxdee13
  • Frozen - $36 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $33.7 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $5.3 million
  • Homefront - $3.45 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Django
  • Frozen - $45.0 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $38.5 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $5.3 million
  • Homefront - $2.9 million
  • 5:45:50 pm HazardousKirby
  • Frozen - $40.2 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $37.9 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3.5 million
  • Homefront - $4.2 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Alan Smithee
  • Frozen - $33.6 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $35.1 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.2 million
  • Homefront - $2.87 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Ryguy815
  • Frozen - $38 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $35 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $5 million
  • Homefront - $3 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Ugueth
  • Frozen - $43.1 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $37.3 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $2.6 million
  • Homefront - $2.5 million
  • 5:45:50 pm jonjon
  • Frozen - $37.94 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $34.56 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $5.622 million
  • Homefront - $2.766 million
  • 5:45:50 pm cougarfaster96
  • Frozen - $40.6 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $34 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $8.4 million
  • Homefront - $3.2 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Bazellis
  • Frozen - $41.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $32.85 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.65 million
  • Homefront - $2.35 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Fredie Fred
  • Frozen - $40.2 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $35.2 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $7.89 million
  • Homefront - $1.46 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Michael Harrison
  • Frozen - $39.77 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $36.88 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $5.55 million
  • Homefront - $3.66 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Matt Taylor
  • Frozen - $30.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $30.2 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $6.0 million
  • Homefront - $3.2 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Jack Tyler
  • Frozen - $33 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $28 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $6 million
  • Homefront - $2.5 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Hrtn4Sqrtn
  • Frozen - $35.6 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $29.2 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $6.8 million
  • Homefront - $3.4 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Ryan Maddux
  • Frozen - $36.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $30.2 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.5 million
  • Homefront - $1.9 million
  • 5:45:50 pm moasey
  • Frozen - $38.2 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $33.2 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3.9 million
  • Homefront - $2.1 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Andrew13
  • Frozen - $35.9 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $34.9 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.6 million
  • Homefront - $3.3 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Erik
  • Frozen - $34.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $34.7 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3.3 million
  • Homefront - $2.45 million
  • 5:45:50 pm themoviewatcher
  • Frozen - $39.6 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $35.7 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $5.1 million
  • Homefront - $2.9 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Joe K
  • Frozen - $38.1 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $35.1 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3.9 million
  • Homefront - $2.8 million
  • 5:45:50 pm zm
  • Frozen - $30.9 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $32.5 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.7 million
  • Homefront - $3.2 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Abraham Sánchez
  • Frozen - $33.69 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $29.67 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.05 million
  • Homefront - $4.56 million
  • 5:45:50 pm austinjoel
  • Frozen - $40.1 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $38.7 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $6.3 million
  • Homefront - $4.7 million
  • 5:45:50 pm NitPicker68
  • Frozen - $33.0 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $32.6 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3.67 million
  • Homefront - $2.49 million
  • 5:45:50 pm The Movie Guru
  • Frozen - $42.4 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $38.4 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $6.87 million
  • Homefront - $3.6 million
  • 5:45:50 pm YeeHaa
  • Frozen - $37.6 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $37.6 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $5.7 million
  • Homefront - $3.7 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Bob Phelan
  • Frozen - $38.2 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $33.75 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.15 million
  • Homefront - $3.25 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Michael
  • Frozen - $38.3 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $31.2 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.7 million
  • Homefront - $2.6 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Kieran
  • Frozen - $41.3 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $35.6 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $6.9 million
  • Homefront - $2.9 million
  • 5:45:50 pm tomsen
  • Frozen - $38.8 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $29.0 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.4 million
  • Homefront - $3.4 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Alex Thomas
  • Frozen - $43.5 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $28.5 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $5.2 million
  • Homefront - $1.6 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Hudsucker
  • Frozen - $38.2 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $34.9 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $9.7 million
  • Homefront - $2.5 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Austin Gorski
  • Frozen - $36.8 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $33.6 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.8 million
  • Homefront - $2.5 million
  • 5:45:50 pm crayc30
  • Frozen - $37.94 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $34.26 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.94 million
  • Homefront - $2.89 million
  • 5:45:50 pm lapcat01
  • Frozen - $35.0 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $31.7 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $7.1 million
  • Homefront - $2.8 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Aditya
  • Frozen - $35 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $33.2 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $4.5 million
  • Homefront - $3 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Zevastian
  • Frozen - $42.1 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $34.2 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3.7 million
  • Homefront - $3.3 million
  • 5:45:50 pm cineJAB
  • Frozen - $39.9 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $41.2 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $5.1 million
  • Homefront - $1.2 million
  • 5:45:50 pm Ryan Jayden
  • Frozen - $36.7 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $33.1 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $5.14 million
  • Homefront - $2.89 million
  • 5:45:50 pm rusty
  • Frozen - $43.2 million
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $26.1 million
  • Out of the Furnace - $3.34 million
  • Homefront - $1.5 million

The current standings heading into this weekend can be seen on the leaderboard here.

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  • PJ Edwards

    Well, Davis is a small film but the fact the Coens havent made a film in 3 years will drive up the early hype. I think it'll get 90k per.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ian/ Ian

    I agree with Laremy re the psychology of this weekend that's right in the middle of Hollywood's second biggest season, yet is always completely dead. It's not just the lack of attractive new releases, but the fact that holdovers routinely plunge as well. I think people are just conditioned to take a break from movies in the beginning of December and focus on Christmas shopping. I would like to see Out of the Furnace but just don't have time this weekend. That's the problem with having so many movies opening this time of year..some of the ones that are lower on my radar, like Out of the Furnace and Philomena, I'd have no problem getting to earlier in the year. But this time of year there just isn't enough time to factor in two movies every weekend plus all the Christmas stuff.

    And since we're not officially predicting Inside Llewyn Davis (though it's much more interesting to discuss than Homefront), I'll throw out a number here: $200,000. That's $50,000 per; aside from Blue Jasmine the limited releases haven't been hitting stratospheric levels this year.

  • Bazellis

    Here's to 2 weeks on the bounce!