Box Office Predictions

Box Office Predictions: 'Gravity' Hopes for Third Week at #1, Can the 'Carrie' Remake Stop It?

Gravity picks up a third win, Carrie and The Escape Plan will never be heard from again.

Weekend Box-Office Predictions

GravityGravity will win its third straight weekend at the box office, astonishingly making it the first film of 2013 to do so (for the record, five films pulled off the feat in 2012). Just another indicator of a studio system slowly undoing itself; the competition is far too heated for any one movie to maintain staying power anymore. That said, we're not going to predict Gravity again this week, though I'll say I see another drop in the 20 percent range.

Now then, let's turn our attention to three new releases ... and one, very buzzy, limited release.

Carrie is the only real challenger to the crown, but you'll have to go above tracking to get it there. Is there any real excitement for this title? I can't sense it, but then again, I'm not the target demographic. Classic horror remakes tend to have a limited ceiling, but there's no reason one can't thrive on an opening weekend. If it did manage to take first place it would be the first horror film since July's The Conjuring to do so. My take? $22.5 million, about ten percent below tracking.

Next up, Escape Plan, a film that somehow has even less anticipation than the Carrie remake. But it's not half bad! Seriously. Will that help at all this weekend? Not a bit, Bullet to the Head and The Last Stand show clear audience fatigue with the muscle-bound men of the '80s. I'm going below tracking yet again, daring you to go higher. My call is $9.6 million.

The Fifth Estate? Lol. Even when Hollywood does try to make an adult film they botch it completely. The tracking is abysmal, the theater counts paltry, everything about this film screams, "never to be heard from again" (just read Brad's review). However, they have spent a fair amount on marketing, I base that on seeing a few trailers during primetime, so I think it will slightly over-perform those extremely low expectations. $5.1 million is where I see this ending up, interested to see your take.

Finally, 12 Years a Slave will get 18 theaters this weekend in New York, Los Angeles and other major markets (see the list here), and I'm going to put it at a very strong $1.3 million, though I'm bearish on its overall box office future.

Now it's your turn, get those predictions in early and accurately!

Current Record: 19-46-3 against the wisdom of crowds.

Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking

  • Carrie: $25.2 million
  • The Escape Plan: $10.2 million
  • The Fifth Estate: $4 million
  • 12 Years a Slave: N/A

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.

Time for posting predictions for this weekend has expired.

Predictions for this weekend were due by
end of day Thursday, October 17th

Click Here to see this week's reader predictions.

For a complete look at the rules and regulations on how to compete click the "Rules & Regulations" tab at the top of the page right here.

Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for October 18 - October 20, 2013

  1. Gravity was #1 at the box-office
    • Gravity
    • $31.5 million
    • THEATERS: 3,660 ($8,607 per theater)
    • BUDGET: $100 million
    • ROTTEN TOMATOES: 97%
  2. Carrie () - $22.5 million
    Playing in 3,000 theaters ($7,500 avg.) / $30 million budget / 46%
  3. Captain Phillips () - $14.4 million
    Playing in 3,020 theaters ($4,768 avg.) / $55 million budget / 95%
  4. Escape Plan () - $9.6 million
    Playing in 2,750 theaters ($3,491 avg.) / 49%
  5. Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2 () - $8.7 million
    Playing in 3,500 theaters ($2,486 avg.) / $78 million budget / 70%
  6. The Fifth Estate (, ) - $5.1 million
    Playing in 1,700 theaters ($3,000 avg.) / 37%
  7. Prisoners () - $2.1 million
    Playing in 2,400 theaters ($875 avg.) / $46 million budget / 81%
  8. Runner Runner () - $2 million
    Playing in 3,026 theaters ($661 avg.) / $30 million budget / 9%
  9. Machete Kills () - $1.7 million
    Playing in 2,538 theaters ($670 avg.) / 31%
  10. Insidious: Chapter 2 () - $1.6 million
    Playing in 1,700 theaters ($941 avg.) / $5 million budget / 38%
Click here to browse our box-office charts and compare Laremy's predictions

102 Readers Have Posted Predictions

  • 5:31:05 pm zacksparrow
  • 12 Years a Slave - $0.3 million
  • Carrie - $24.2 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.5 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.3 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Nathan
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.88 million
  • Carrie - $28.3 million
  • Escape Plan - $7.8 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.2 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Erik
  • 12 Years a Slave - $.98 million
  • Carrie - $24.7 million
  • Escape Plan - $5.4 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $2.9 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Exxdee13
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.4 million
  • Carrie - $22.8 million
  • Escape Plan - $10 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.8 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Dave AD
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.0 million
  • Carrie - $21.5 million
  • Escape Plan - $6.2 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.5 million
  • 5:31:05 pm G-Man
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.52 million
  • Carrie - $24.0 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.6 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $6.8 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Driver
  • 12 Years a Slave - $0.29 million
  • Carrie - $19.8 million
  • Escape Plan - $10.7 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.8 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Andrew J.S.
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.5 million
  • Carrie - $17.1 million
  • Escape Plan - $6.9 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.8 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Bertram J. Krogh
  • 12 Years a Slave - $0.925 million
  • Carrie - $19.50 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.10 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.80 million
  • 5:31:05 pm andyluvsfilms
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.6 million
  • Carrie - $20 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.5 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.1 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Matt Taylor
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.5 million
  • Carrie - $24.6 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.5 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $5.6 million
  • 5:31:05 pm AdamsLostApple
  • 12 Years a Slave - $.9 million
  • Carrie - $25.1 million
  • Escape Plan - $10.2 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.8 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Jeffrey
  • 12 Years a Slave - $.21 million
  • Carrie - $21.5 million
  • Escape Plan - $13.4 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.0 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Austin Gorski
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.3 million
  • Carrie - $19.2 million
  • Escape Plan - $7.0 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.8 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Arthur Carlson
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.5 million
  • Carrie - $22.5 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.2 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.5 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Bazellis
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.58 million
  • Carrie - $21.4 million
  • Escape Plan - $12.5 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.15 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Corbin
  • 12 Years a Slave - $0.87 million
  • Carrie - $25.6 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.4 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $6.2 million
  • 5:31:05 pm coltonhaynes22
  • 12 Years a Slave - $0.9 million
  • Carrie - $24.7 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.3 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.4 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Kessler
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.5 million
  • Carrie - $23.1 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.2 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.7 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Stephen Jay
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.98 million
  • Carrie - $29.9 million
  • Escape Plan - $6.5 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.5 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Roger
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.5 million
  • Carrie - $21.2 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.7 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.7 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Liam Fogarty
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.29 million
  • Carrie - $20.7 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.7 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.5 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Eric83
  • 12 Years a Slave - $0.9 million
  • Carrie - $29.7 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.3 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.4 million
  • 5:31:05 pm zm
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.2 million
  • Carrie - $23.3 million
  • Escape Plan - $6.9 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.2 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Lupita Nyong'o
  • 12 Years a Slave - $0.8 million
  • Carrie - $20.2 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.5 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4 million
  • 5:31:05 pm lapcat01
  • 12 Years a Slave - $.565 million
  • Carrie - $19.6 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.3 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.9 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Phoxhunter
  • 12 Years a Slave - $.85 million
  • Carrie - $24.3 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.3 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.1 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Ryan Maddux
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.2 million
  • Carrie - $24.9 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.9 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.4 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Zach
  • 12 Years a Slave - $.9 million
  • Carrie - $29.4 million
  • Escape Plan - $6.4 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.4 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Thegreathare
  • 12 Years a Slave - $2.6 million
  • Carrie - $27.5 million
  • Escape Plan - $12.7 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $1.8 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Jimmy B
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.1 million
  • Carrie - $32.7 million
  • Escape Plan - $7.9 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.4 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Yaz
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.51 million
  • Carrie - $22.3 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.4 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.2 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Ryan Jayden
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.56 million
  • Carrie - $23.9 million
  • Escape Plan - $7.15 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $2.45 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Vibhor Panda
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.3 million
  • Carrie - $22.8 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.8 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.76 million
  • 5:31:05 pm cargosatthemovies
  • 12 Years a Slave - $.9 million
  • Carrie - $30.5 million
  • Escape Plan - $17 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $9 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Maj. Kong
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.72 million
  • Carrie - $29.1 million
  • Escape Plan - $10.5 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.0 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Xarnis
  • 12 Years a Slave - $0.9 million
  • Carrie - $19.4 million
  • Escape Plan - $13.7 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $5.6 million
  • 5:31:05 pm TimmaeXVX
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.62 million
  • Carrie - $18.7 million
  • Escape Plan - $7.5 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $2.8 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Jason Lavender
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.6 million
  • Carrie - $18.6 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.9 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.7 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Israel Valencia
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.5 million
  • Carrie - $27.6 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.8 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.6 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Kai Sacco
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.5 million
  • Carrie - $20 million
  • Escape Plan - $10 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.5 million
  • 5:31:05 pm paststrange
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.63 million
  • Carrie - $25.4 million
  • Escape Plan - $6.7 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.9 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Truman Leonard
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.2 million
  • Carrie - $25 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.6 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $5 million
  • 5:31:05 pm John D.
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.7 million
  • Carrie - $18.8 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.4 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.8 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Athar
  • 12 Years a Slave - $.95 million
  • Carrie - $16.8 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.6 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.43 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Rach
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.79 million
  • Carrie - $26.8 million
  • Escape Plan - $10.2 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $2.8 million
  • 5:31:05 pm kyle coley
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.2 million
  • Carrie - $23.4 million
  • Escape Plan - $10.3 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.5 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Winchester
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.6 million
  • Carrie - $26.1 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.0 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $2.9 million
  • 5:31:05 pm HazardousKirby
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.0 million
  • Carrie - $24.9 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.2 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $2.3 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Zachary Gerberick
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.3 million
  • Carrie - $17.8 million
  • Escape Plan - $6.2 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $2.2 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Mykael
  • 12 Years a Slave - $0.88 million
  • Carrie - $23.14 million
  • Escape Plan - $10 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $7.6 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Ron Oneal Fresh
  • 12 Years a Slave - $.85 million
  • Carrie - $18 million
  • Escape Plan - $9 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.5 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Peete
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.1 million
  • Carrie - $20.3 million
  • Escape Plan - $12.9 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.3 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Alan Smithee
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.42 million
  • Carrie - $13.4 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.6 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.14 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Shaun Heenan
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.5 million
  • Carrie - $22 million
  • Escape Plan - $11 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.3 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Michael
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.1 million
  • Carrie - $25.3 million
  • Escape Plan - $7.5 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.8 million
  • 5:31:05 pm aroncido
  • 12 Years a Slave - $0.3 million
  • Carrie - $18 million
  • Escape Plan - $10 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $6 million
  • 5:31:05 pm John Doe Snow
  • 12 Years a Slave - $0.86 million
  • Carrie - $22.71 million
  • Escape Plan - $11.3 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.51 million
  • 5:31:05 pm dam94
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.52 million
  • Carrie - $19.8 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.7 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.67 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Davey Peppers
  • 12 Years a Slave - $0.98 million
  • Carrie - $21.2 million
  • Escape Plan - $12.1 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.4 million
  • 5:31:05 pm maja
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.5 million
  • Carrie - $19.8 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.2 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.4 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Baca
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.2 million
  • Carrie - $30.0 million
  • Escape Plan - $5.1 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.3 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Zayden Qadardaan
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.3 million
  • Carrie - $26.9 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.75 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.6 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Rob
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.0 million
  • Carrie - $20.0 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.0 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.0 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Andrew13
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.17 million
  • Carrie - $24.3 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.6 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $5.2 million
  • 5:31:05 pm MM
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.2 million
  • Carrie - $21 million
  • Escape Plan - $12 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3 million
  • 5:31:05 pm luis Remelli
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.18 million
  • Carrie - $21.2 million
  • Escape Plan - $5.6 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.1 million
  • 5:31:05 pm rusty
  • 12 Years a Slave - $.75 million
  • Carrie - $21.6 million
  • Escape Plan - $14.3 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $1.3 million
  • 5:31:05 pm GregDinskisk
  • 12 Years a Slave - $2.221 million
  • Carrie - $24.99 million
  • Escape Plan - $5.33 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $5.331 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Cordia
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.22 million
  • Carrie - $23.1 million
  • Escape Plan - $10 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.3 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Ian
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.9 million
  • Carrie - $30 million
  • Escape Plan - $5.8 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $5.3 million
  • 5:31:05 pm jonjon
  • 12 Years a Slave - $.96 million
  • Carrie - $25.6 million
  • Escape Plan - $12.2 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.91 million
  • 5:31:05 pm azjoker1
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.5 million
  • Carrie - $30 million
  • Escape Plan - $16 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $5 million
  • 5:31:05 pm IngmarTheBergman
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.1 million
  • Carrie - $25.2 million
  • Escape Plan - $6.4 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.3 million
  • 5:31:05 pm ldm2006
  • 12 Years a Slave - $2.0 million
  • Carrie - $18.9 million
  • Escape Plan - $7.3 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.1 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Jack Tyler
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.5 million
  • Carrie - $24.5 million
  • Escape Plan - $5.5 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.5 million
  • 5:31:05 pm navaneethks
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.44 million
  • Carrie - $17.7 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.4 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.6 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Burt Mizaki
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.2 million
  • Carrie - $24.7 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.8 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $5 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Alex Thomas
  • 12 Years a Slave - $0.7 million
  • Carrie - $16.5 million
  • Escape Plan - $4.9 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $2.5 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Hrtn4Sqrtn
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.4 million
  • Carrie - $23.3 million
  • Escape Plan - $10.0 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.4 million
  • 5:31:05 pm themoviewatcher
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.5 million
  • Carrie - $21.6 million
  • Escape Plan - $11.3 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $11.8 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Kyle Lucas
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.573 million
  • Carrie - $20.4 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.65 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.7 million
  • 5:31:05 pm thefutureofhollywood
  • 12 Years a Slave - $.960 million
  • Carrie - $23.3 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.4 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.7 million
  • 5:31:05 pm moasey
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.1 million
  • Carrie - $20.2 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.1 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.3 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Bob Phelan
  • 12 Years a Slave - $0.9 million
  • Carrie - $26.4 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.9 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.6 million
  • 5:31:05 pm tonypdl
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.52 million
  • Carrie - $21.8 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.5 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.2 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Michael Harrison
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.04 million
  • Carrie - $24.16 million
  • Escape Plan - $10.22 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $5.13 million
  • 5:31:05 pm kathrynlynn
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.8 million
  • Carrie - $16.4 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.9 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $2.3 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Torryz
  • 12 Years a Slave - $.9 million
  • Carrie - $24 million
  • Escape Plan - $12 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4 million
  • 5:31:05 pm tomsen
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.3 million
  • Carrie - $24.7 million
  • Escape Plan - $11.6 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.5 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Ugueth
  • 12 Years a Slave - $.83 million
  • Carrie - $22.0 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.9 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.6 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Kieran
  • 12 Years a Slave - $0.75 million
  • Carrie - $19.8 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.2 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $5.4 million
  • 5:31:05 pm austinjoel
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.25 million
  • Carrie - $28.2 million
  • Escape Plan - $13.1 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $6.0 million
  • 5:31:05 pm YeeHaa
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.07 million
  • Carrie - $28.8 million
  • Escape Plan - $13.1 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.95 million
  • 5:31:05 pm crayc30
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.24 million
  • Carrie - $23.04 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.25 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.21 million
  • 5:31:05 pm jess
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.1 million
  • Carrie - $26.8 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.9 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.3 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Abraham Sánchez
  • 12 Years a Slave - $0.36 million
  • Carrie - $23.9 million
  • Escape Plan - $11.0 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $5.44 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Joe K
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.112 million
  • Carrie - $26.7 million
  • Escape Plan - $8.3 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.2 million
  • 5:31:05 pm JN Films
  • 12 Years a Slave - $.8888 million
  • Carrie - $21.88 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.888 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $4.888 million
  • 5:31:05 pm Zevastian
  • 12 Years a Slave - $0.9 million
  • Carrie - $22.1 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.5 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.8 million
  • 5:31:05 pm JoeShlomo
  • 12 Years a Slave - $0.2 million
  • Carrie - $23 million
  • Escape Plan - $5 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3 million
  • 5:31:05 pm topyxyz
  • 12 Years a Slave - $1.0 million
  • Carrie - $27.9 million
  • Escape Plan - $9.5 million
  • The Fifth Estate - $3.2 million

The current standings heading into this weekend can be seen on the leaderboard here.

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  • Bazellis

    Right, I've gone with the majority for a change so hopefully I might get a point this week........please!!!

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/bridgetoash/ Nathan

    I only clicked on this article because the title contained a question, and I was dying to know what that answer was.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/TheLastEquivocationofBrist/ TheLastEquivocationofBrist

    All is Lost opens limited this weekend too no?

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      Yup

  • robotsrule

    All Is Lost and 12 Years A Slave don't appear to be opening in SF this weekend. I'm gonna probably pay to see Carrie, sneak into Escape Plan, and wait for DVD on Fifth Estate.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      You'll feel better about yourself if you pay to see Escape Plan. :)

      • yrabadi

        You know I'd actually be okay with paying to see Escape Plan. The only issue is I still haven't seen Prisoners and I will have access to 12 Years... Sooooooo.... I guess what it comes down to is do I want to pay to feel depressed? I mean, I love it when a film can just drown me in depression... but do I want to pay for that?

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

          12 Years a Slave is high quality cinema, but I understand your position.

          • yrabadi

            I have heard that and only that. I will definitely see it at some point... I just need to be in the right frame of mind.

      • robotsrule

        Well that means I'll be sneaking into Carrie, which is quite possible depending on the showtimes and when I get to the theater. The AMC 1000 is spread over 4 floors with the ticket booth being in the lobby. Once you're in, you're in. But I'd feel better about putting my money into the pockets of Kimberly Peirce and Chloe Moretz. Stallone and Schwarzenegger have had nice long lucrative careers. They may want my money, but they don't really need it. I will, however, be buying a medium popcorn and a 5 dollar bottle of spring water to offset the loss in ticket sales for the theater.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

          As Gollum says, no sneak... just avoid Carrie.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/TheLastEquivocationofBrist/ TheLastEquivocationofBrist

      So you want to financially support a remake while robbing dollars away from an original screenplay? Nice.

      • robotsrule

        The remake is made by a female director who directed Boys Don't Cry. Do I seriously still need to help Stallone and Schwarzenegger at this point? Arnold didn't exactly help my state out very much. I probably pay to see a minimum of 4 movies in theaters a month which is higher than average. And these theaters aren't exactly full. I go in the daytime and sometimes it's just me and a few other people.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/TheLastEquivocationofBrist/ TheLastEquivocationofBrist

          I don't support sneaking in at all, but you do make a good point about the director of the Carrie remake. This movie could be a lose-lose proposition then. If it succeeds, we get more remakes, while if it fails, it may hurt female directors.

          • robotsrule

            The sneaking in thing is a morally grey area with many variables that each individual has to reconcile for themselves. There are all kinds of issues to consider i.e. is it an independent film or a major studio release? Is it a movie I would pay to see if they made it impossible to sneak in? Is it a sold out show or a matinee two weeks after release? Sometimes I sneak into a movie and then recommend it to other people who then go pay to see it who might not have otherwise. So there is some value in people seeing a movie whether they pay for it or not. There are some filmmakers, Wes Anderson, PTA, Woody Allen, David Fincher, and some film series (James Bond) where I would probably pay $40 to see the film based on their artistic merit and previous work. For those artists I'll also typically buy DVDs and other products because I want those individuals to keep making films. I figure twelve bucks to see Escape plan and Carrie plus another ten bucks for refreshments is a reasonable expenditure on my part.

  • Morpheos

    Didn't " Lee Daniel's The Butler" do it first? I believe it did.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      Only if you count the third weekend as a four-day weekend. It actually came in second over the three-day.

      • Morpheos

        Don't many do that though? In most news articles it is referred to as such. But I'm glad anytime critically acclaimed films make money. It gives me a momentary hope that Hollywood will do things a bit differently to produce more of it. But then I snap out of it.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

          Many did because it made for a better headline, but in this case the accurate statement is to say it only finished #1 twice over three day weekends.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/JimmyB/ Jimmy B

    I'm thinking it'll be a fight between Gravity and Carrie for No. 1. Since it's the only horror film out this month (unusual for October), Carrie should perform well.

  • Morpheos

    Ever since AVATAR I don't think box office matters that much.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

    I have a feeling Carrie is going to bomb.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ian/ Ian

    You sound bitter today Laremy :) Yes it's rare in today's disposable cinema world for a movie to have any kind of box office longevity but I'd rather be happy when it happens (though I don't necessarily think Gravity is a movie that deserves it) than bemoan everything else. Also while The Fifth Estate may be a stinker, in just the last month we've had two very well done adult movies in Captain Phillips and Prisoners. And just as a point of correction, Insidious won the box office last month as a horror movie.

    I didn't think there was a precedent for a film opening in more than five or so theatres to hit a $100,000 PTA, but Precious actually did it four years ago. So because I'm an optimist I'm gonna say 12 Years a Slave matches that (side note: I'd forgotton Blue Jasmine opened so well in limited release, $102,000 PTA which is tops for the year so far). And for the love of God Fox Searchlight had better get it out wide within the next few weeks and not butcher it, and its Oscar chances along with it. Normally I'd probably give Carrie around $25 million but I figure it gets somewhat of a bump due to being the only horror in October. The question is whether it can make the $35 million it needs to knock off Gravity. My guess is no. Escape Plan and The Fifth Estate should both make around $5 million and I may actually give the edge to The Fifth Estate depending on what the actual theatre counts look like. I'm also curious as to how All is Lost will do. Apparently it's going wide next weekend; does this coupled with 12 Years a Slave being so high profile steal all its thunder or can it still manage a $50,000 + PTA?

    I'm not in a top tier city so nothing in theatres for me this weekend.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Winchester/ Winchester

    Heck, I'm out already................I did not mean to type $1.6 million for '12 Years a Slave'.

    I actually tend not to use how many weeks a film stays at number 1 as barometer of how 'successful' it is, especially when some perfectly successful films never even hit Number 1 even the once. It's one of those stats that doesn't really inform the overall performance of a film when you look at everything together.

    I would also consider gross vs budget, does the final gross opening weekend multiple exceed the average 2.5 by a noteworthy amount etc to try and get a feel for how a film has done, as well as if it stayed on top for more than a week.

    (hey, I don't like Facebook but turns out 'edit' is useful)