Box Office Predictions

Box-Office Predictions: Can 'Identity Thief' Regain #1 Over 'Die Hard', 'Snitch' and 'Dark Skies' This Weekend?

Get out your dartboards, it's going to be a wild weekend!

Weekend Box-Office Predictions

Identity ThiefIdentity Thief is looking to pull off the rare feat of winning in its third weekend without having had won the second one. With a production budget of $35 million it feels likely that Identity Thief will end up in the red, especially once you factor in the 7,000 times it will play on HBO this winter. Getting a win with $14 million in earnings is also pretty strange, but the theaters will be empty on Sunday as Brad and I live blog The Academy Awards.

The new releases looking to overtake it include Snitch and Dark Skies. The tracking on these two titles is miserable, though the tracking on last weekend's A Good Day to Die Hard was way off if you're looking for precedent. What's up with the tracking, fellas? Don't tell me you're turning into Standard and Poor's over there.

Plus, check out these opening numbers:
Bullet to the Head $4.6 million
Parker: $7 million
The Last Stand $6.3 million

That's a world of hurt. Dwayne Johnson can't feel good about heading out into that maelstrom, and Snitch looks too generic to dominate, so I've placed it at a piddly $10.5 million opening.

The other new release, Dark Skies, wasn't screened for critics and also looks to be dead on arrival. My call of $7.2 million would not be well received by the Weinstein Co., although the production budget has yet to be released. A Good Day to Die Hard is predicted to sink like a stone, all the way down to $11.2 million. Dismal.

Luckily, we'll all have plenty of entertainment coming from Los Angeles this weekend, only it will be in the form of awkward acceptance speeches and attempted comedy. Hopefully we'll get an upset or two as well, and it's always fun to watch for the exact moment when my predictions go down in flames. Let's see some opening weekend calls on Snitch and Dark Skies, we'll see you Sunday evening for the live blog. Tune in!

Current Streak: Four weekends in a row.
Chances of Streak Being Broken: 90 percent.
Reason: I have the top twelve finishing at $84 million. No offense to me, but that's bonkers. I think four of the top five have a great shot at the crown and my track record in luck calls like this is, well unlucky.

Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
Snitch: $12 million
Dark Skies: $8 million

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.

Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for February 22 - February 24, 2013

  1. Identity Thief was #1 at the box-office
  2. A Good Day To Die Hard () - $11.2 million
    Playing in 3,553 theaters ($3,152 avg.) / $92 million budget / 15%
  3. Snitch () - $10.5 million
    Playing in 2,500 theaters ($4,200 avg.) / $35 million budget / 57%
  4. Escape from Planet Earth () - $10.4 million
    Playing in 3,288 theaters ($3,163 avg.) / $40 million budget
  5. Safe Haven () - $10.3 million
    Playing in 3,300 theaters ($3,121 avg.) / $28 million budget / 13%
  6. Dark Skies () - $7.2 million
    Playing in 2,400 theaters ($3,000 avg.) / 30%
  7. Warm Bodies () - $5.6 million
    Playing in 2,600 theaters ($2,154 avg.) / $30 million budget / 80%
  8. Side Effects () - $4.4 million
    Playing in 2,400 theaters ($1,833 avg.) / $30 million budget / 85%
  9. Beautiful Creatures () - $4.3 million
    Playing in 2,950 theaters ($1,458 avg.) / $60 million budget / 45%
  10. Silver Linings Playbook () - $3.4 million
    Playing in 1,500 theaters ($2,267 avg.) / $21 million budget / 92%
Click here to browse our box-office charts and compare Laremy's predictions
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  • chriscarmichael

    1. Identity Thief $15.4 million
    2. Snitch $12.2 million
    3. Dark Skies $11.6 MIllion
    4. A Good Day To Die Hard $9.6 million
    5. Escape from PLanet Earth $9.4 million
    6. Safe Haven $ 8.2 million
    7. Warm Bodies $5.3 million
    8. Beautiful Creatures $ 5.1 million
    9. Silver Lining Playbook $ $4.5 million
    10. Side Effects $3.7 million

    Ive only seen one of these movies and it was 3 months ago LOL. (SLP and it wasnt very good) . I just love that Django is topping out at $160 million US and gonna do over $400 million total worldwide. Couldnt be happier as that is the best film in many many years.

  • Arthur Carlson

    1. Identity Thief - $15.9M
    2. Snitch - $12.8M
    3. A Good Day to Not Be A Die Hard Movie - $11.5M
    4. Escape From Planet Earth - $10.8M
    5. Safe Haven - $10M
    6. Dark Skies - $9.7M

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Andrew13/ Andrew13

    1. Identity Thief - $15.2 million
    2. Safe Haven - $11.6 million
    3. Escape From Planet Earth - $10.9 million
    4. Snitch - $10.5 million
    5. A Good Day to Die Hard - $10.0 million
    6. Dark Skies - $8.4 million
    7. Silver Linings Playbook - $5.5 million
    8. Warm Bodies - $5.3 million
    9. Beautiful Creatures - $3.8 million
    10. Side Effects - $3.7 million

  • Dennis

    Snitch 18.6
    dark skies 13.9

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Corbin/ Corbin

    1. Identity Thief- $15.5 million
    2. A Good Day to Die Hard- $13.4 million
    3. Snitch- $12.6 million
    4. That movie about the incandescent sun (Safe Haven)- $10.2 million
    5. Escape from Planet Earth- $9.2 million
    6. Dark Skies- $8.3 million
    7. Warm Bodies- $6.7 million
    8. Silver Linings Playbook- $5.9 million
    9. Side Effects- $4.3 million
    10. Beautiful Creatures- $3.6 million

  • Jack

    1. Die Hard- $11.5 million
    2. Dark Skies- $10 million
    3. Snitch- $9 million
    4. Identity Thief- $8.5 million
    5. Safe Haven- $7.5 million
    6. Escape From Planet Earth- $6 million
    7. Warm Bodies- $4.5 million
    8. Beautiful Creatures- $3 million
    9. Side Effects- $2.5 million
    10. Silver Linings Playbook- $1.5 million

  • http://letterboxd.com/austin/ Austin G.

    Identity Thief - $14.9 million
    A Good Day to Die Hard - $13.3 million
    Safe Haven - $11.1 million
    Snitch - $8.8 million
    Dark Skies - $6.2 million

  • Roger

    It's too bad The Rock's movie won't be #1. His action movies are always entertaining.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Will-E/ Will-E

    Identity Thief - 13.75
    Safe Haven - 11.5
    Die Hard - 11.25
    Escape - 11.1
    Snitch - 11
    Dark Skies - 7.6
    Warm Bodies - 6.2
    Side Effects - 5.6
    SLP - 4.96
    Creatures - 4.5

  • Chris Etrata

    Snitch: 12.4 million
    Dark Skies: 6.7 million

  • Paige

    Die Hard: $16 mil
    Identity Thief: $15 mil
    Safe Haven: $12 mil
    Dark Skies: $11 mil
    Snitch: $8 mil

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/coltonhaynes22/ coltonhaynes22

    1. Identity Thief $13.7 mil
    2. Dark Skies $ 12.4 mil
    3. Die Hard $ 12.2 mil
    4. Safe Haven $ 11.5 mil
    5. Snitch $ 10.6 mil
    6. Escape from PE $ 8.5 mil
    7. Beautiful Creatures $ 5.3 mil
    8. Warm Bodies $ 4.9 mil
    9. Silver Linings Playbook $ 4.8 mil
    10. Side Effects $ 3.9 mil

  • http://usbopredictions2013.blogspot.com/ Mario

    Dark Skies -- 14,75 mln
    Snitch -- 13,2 mln

  • Mykael

    1. Identity Thief - $13.2 million
    2. Die Hard 5 - $11.2 million
    3. Safe Haven - $10.3 million
    4. Snitch - $10 million
    5. Escape From Planet Earth - $9.5 million
    6.Dark Skies - $8.6 million