Box Office Predictions

Box-Office Oracle: 'Zero Dark Thirty' Over 'Gangster Squad' and 'Haunted House'

It's Oscar nomination weekend, who yah got on top?

Weekend Box-Office Predictions

Current Streak: 0 Weekends in a Row
Threat Level to Streak Being Broken: Thirty-Five percent. The general public is ready to see what all the fuss regarding Zero Dark Thirty is about.
Reason: If there was a real contender this weekend I'd be somewhat concerned, especially given I seem to be jinxed. But Kathryn Bigelow will deliver me a victory. Get it done, Kat-Big.

Zero Dark ThirtyZero Dark Thirty should get me off the schneid this weekend, fully restoring my reputation. Remember when calling the box office was easy? I miss those days. I'm giving the newly dubbed Best Picture nominee a shot at #1 with $27 million.

Two titles stand to hurt my chance of nailing the top spot this weekend, the wounded Gangster Squad and the supremely silly A Haunted House. The former title is getting 3,103 theaters to play with, but Ryan Gosling, Josh Brolin and Sean Penn look to be headed for a disaster.

The film was moved from September, ostensibly because a natural tragedy, but more likely due to it being a terrible movie. The reviews are pouring in, and they aren't loving it. Besides, nothing gets moved to January on accident, and this is one title that Warner Bros. seems keen to forget. My one layer of concern? Tracking for Gangster Squad is in the mid-20s, but I'm predicting a weekend of $17.1 million. So I'll either need weekend word-of-mouth to sink it or anticipation to wane, otherwise I'll be sweating out Sunday (once again).

As for A Haunted House, it will get the Scary Movie crowd, but it's only getting around 2,200 theaters to play with -- not enough market saturation to make a big push -- so I give it a shot at $13 million.

The only other story of the weekend is what effect the Academy Award nominations will have. We should see Lincoln have a healthy holdover, though I have no idea what sort of person wakes up and says, "Now what is this Lincoln Best Picture nod all about?"

Texas Chainsaw 3D will face a brutal comeuppance after winning last weekend, totally justified because it was the type of horror film that wins a January weekend (as opposed to the type I thought it was). Finally, I expect Django Unchained to hold strong and finish in second, though third place wouldn't surprise me.

How say you? Have I shorted Les Miserables or Django Unchained in my quest to find the winner? Will the tracking numbers prove accurate, denying Zero Dark Thirty the win? Here's your chance to predict, handle it responsibly!

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.

Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for January 11 - January 13, 2013

  1. Zero Dark Thirty was #1 at the box-office
  2. Gangster Squad () - $17.1 million
    Playing in 3,103 theaters ($5,511 avg.) / 32%
  3. Django Unchained () - $13.4 million
    Playing in 3,010 theaters ($4,452 avg.) / $100 million budget / 88%
  4. A Haunted House () - $13 million
    Playing in 2,160 theaters ($6,019 avg.) / 6%
  5. Les Miserables () - $10.9 million
    Playing in 2,904 theaters ($3,753 avg.) / $61 million budget
  6. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey () - $9.3 million
    Playing in 3,200 theaters ($2,906 avg.) / 65%
  7. Texas Chainsaw 3D () - $9.1 million
    Playing in 2,654 theaters ($3,429 avg.) / 18%
  8. Lincoln () - $6.4 million
    Playing in 2,000 theaters ($3,200 avg.) / $65 million budget / 89%
  9. Parental Guidance () - $6 million
    Playing in 3,368 theaters ($1,781 avg.) / $25 million budget / 19%
  10. This is 40 () - $5.3 million
    Playing in 2,750 theaters ($1,927 avg.) / $35 million budget / 51%
Click here to browse our box-office charts and compare Laremy's predictions
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  • Susan

    I expect Life of Pi to get one of the better boosts via Oscar. No clue on number though.

  • Arthur Carlson

    1. Zero Dark Thirty - $25M
    2. A Haunted House - $21.6M
    3. Gangster Squad - $15.4M
    4. Django Unchained - $12.5M
    5. Les Miserables - $10.4M

  • Eric

    I don't see it happening. Zero Dark Thirty should've had a wider expansion last week before going to 2400+ this weekend to really capitalize on the (pre-nom) Oscar buzz.

    Gangster Squad $22 million
    A Haunted House $15 million
    Zero Dark Thirty $15 million
    Django Unchained $13 million
    Les Miz $ 13 million

    • anthony caban

      Gangster Squad looks awesome and it will crush zero dark thirty

  • Jesse3232

    I haven't even heard of "A Haunted House"

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Corbin/ Corbin

    1. Zero Dark Thirty: 23.7 million
    2. Gangster Squad: 19.4 million
    3. A Haunted House: 15.6 million
    4. Django Unchained: 14.1 million
    5. Les Miserables: 12.8 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ian/ Ian

    Zero Dark Thirty, $17 million.
    Gangster Squad, $15 million.
    A Haunted House, $5 million.

  • Jack

    1. Haunted House- $19 million
    2. Zero Dark Thirty- $17.5 million
    3. Gangster Squad- $15 million
    4. Django Unchained- $12 million
    5. Les Miserables- $10.5 million
    6. The Hobbit- $9 million
    7. Parental Guidance- $5.5 million
    8. Texas Chainsaw- $5 million
    9. Lincoln- $4 million
    10. Silver Linings Playbook- $2.5 million

  • Chris Etrata

    Zero Dark Thirty: 33 million
    Gangster Squad: 18.2 million
    A Haunted House: 7.6 million

    • anthony caban

      Gangster Squad is gonna win at box office.zero dark thirty aint going to win maybe next weekend it will but for now gangster squad will win

      • Chris Etrata

        Zero Dark Thirty is leading according to deadline.com with a potential 11 million that could lead to at lease 30 million. Gangster Squad may do 20 million at best.

        • anthony caban

          i get what your saying but what's the problem with gangster squad why would people not vote for gangster squad to win at box office

  • anthony caban

    There is no way on earth that zero dark thirty will beat Gangster Squad at Box Office.

    1.Gangster Squad $34M
    2.Zero Dark Thirty $29M
    3.Django $11M
    4.Texas Chainsaw 3D $9M
    5.A Haunted House $6M

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/kylejames182/ kyle coley

    Zero dark 33.3M
    GS a mere 15.5

  • John Debono

    1. Zero Dark Thirty: $21.8 million
    2. Gangster Squad: $18.1 million
    3. Django Unchained: $13.3 million
    4. Les Miserables: $12 million
    5. A Hunted House: $10.2 million

  • Pockets O’tool

    Ganster Squad - 27.3 million
    Haunted House - 18 million
    Zero Dark Thirty - 16.2 million

  • Athar

    1. Zero Dark Thirty - $28.2 million
    2. Gangster Squad - $14 million
    3. A Haunted House - $ 13.6 million

  • http://www.moviecriticassassins.com Sensei White Lotus

    Grrr... Lost my 14 week streak last week also. Anyway, the picks.

    1. Zero Dark - 25 million.
    2. A Haunted House - 19 million.
    3. Gangster Squad - 17 million.

  • Gerberzy

    Zero Dark- 24.8 million
    Gangster Squad- 22.1 million
    Django- 13.5 million
    Haunted House- 9.1 million

  • Nathan

    Zero Dark Thirty - 25.6
    Gangster Squad - 19.5
    Django Unchained - 14.9
    A Haunted House - 11.2

    I think that Django has the potential to become the highest grossing western or second. Due to the Oscar nomination Zero Dark Thirty will take the top.

  • CJohn

    Zero Dark Thirthy - 28.6M
    Gangster Squad - 23.4M
    A Haunted House - 7.7M

  • Dennis

    Haunted house 22m
    Zero dark 30 13m
    Gangster squad 9m

  • Movie Fan

    Gangster squad: $21 million
    Zero Dark Thirty: $17 million
    A Haunted House: $14 million

  • discopaco

    Gangster Squad - $19.6 million
    Zero Dark Thirty - $14.8