Box Office Predictions

Box-Office Oracle: 'Warm Bodies' Will Fry 'Bullet to the Head'

Why open an actioner for guys on Super Bowl weekend?

Weekend Box-Office Predictions

Current Streak: One weekend in a row.
Threat Level to Streak Being Broken: Zero percent, once again.
Reason: Warm Bodies will be the easy winner. Everything else will be roadkill.

MTC Tracking
Warm Bodies: $21 million
Bullet to the Head: $7 million
Stand Up Guys: $1.5 million

Warm BodiesWarm Bodies will win easily, sure. But as I was researching this weekend I kept saying to myself, "Where's the money, Lebowski?" A top twelve under $76 million is brutally bad, even the last Super Bowl weekend managed $115 million. That weekend had Chronicle and The Woman in Black facing off, and it ended up being a worthy competition. 2013 resembles 2011 in a much bigger way, The Roommate bested Sanctum, and the top twelve only scraped up $73 million. Still, if you were feeling optimistic, there is some wiggle room for higher totals, choose your own adventure.

Let's get back to Warm Bodies, a film supported by the tracking and demographics, destined to be the big winner. Oddly, it's also supported by the critics, earning a 71 percent over at RottenTomatoes (trivia: that's one point higher than Les Miserables. Warm Bodies for Best Picture?) The best part for Warm Bodies is there is only upside, say the Super Bowl is a boring blowout, or perhaps factor in that Bullet to the Head is dead upon arrival (see: The Last Stand, Parker).

The market has spoken on grandpas with guns, and they have found them wanting. Plus, opening Bullet to the Head against the biggest "guy" weekend of the year is simply giving up. Warner Bros. should have just renamed that film White Flag: Don't Bother and been done with it. With all that in mind, I don't think $30 million is out of reach for Warm Bodies, though it will need much of it on Friday and Saturday because both genders watch the Super Bowl.

By comparison, Stand Up Guys isn't getting enough theaters to compete, and will likely be left in the eleventh slot.

For the holdovers, they'll mostly sink like stones. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters should drop around 55 percent, Parker will do slightly better due to the superior Cinemascore (B+ vs. B) and RottenTomatoes tally (37 percent vs. 18 percent).

That's all for this weekend, how y'all feeling? You can predict Warm Bodies and Bullet to the Head, throw in a Stand Up guys call if you think it can sneak into the top ten (I've got it only $100,000 down).

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.

Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for February 1 - February 3, 2013

  1. Warm Bodies was #1 at the box-office
  2. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters () - $8.8 million
    Playing in 3,372 theaters ($2,610 avg.) / $50 million budget / 15%
  3. Silver Linings Playbook () - $7.2 million
    Playing in 2,700 theaters ($2,667 avg.) / $21 million budget / 92%
  4. Mama () - $7.1 million
    Playing in 2,682 theaters ($2,647 avg.) / $15 million budget / 62%
  5. Bullet to the Head () - $6.6 million
    Playing in 2,404 theaters ($2,745 avg.) / 48%
  6. Zero Dark Thirty () - $6 million
    Playing in 2,750 theaters ($2,182 avg.) / $40 million budget / 93%
  7. Parker () - $3.8 million
    Playing in 2,224 theaters ($1,709 avg.) / 38%
  8. Lincoln () - $2.5 million
    Playing in 1,600 theaters ($1,563 avg.) / $65 million budget / 89%
  9. Les Miserables () - $2.2 million
    Playing in 1,750 theaters ($1,257 avg.) / $61 million budget
  10. Django Unchained () - $2 million
    Playing in 1,350 theaters ($1,481 avg.) / $100 million budget / 88%
Click here to browse our box-office charts and compare Laremy's predictions
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  • Athar

    1. Warm Bodies - $ 22.5 million
    2. Hansel & Gretel - $ 9.5 million
    3. Bullet to the Head - $ 8.2 million

  • Dennis

    This probably won't happen but I would like it to. Arnold made one of his best films. Parker bombed. Sly has had many hits. I hate seeing Matt Damon or Jeremy renner in action films that make money. I will see bullet tomorrow hope everyone does. That being said

    Warm bodies 19.6
    Bullet to the head 18.5

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Corbin/ Corbin

    1. Warm Bodies- $23.1 million
    2. Hansel and Gretel- $8.6 million
    3. SLP- $7.9 million
    4. Mama- $7.1 million
    5. Bullet to the Head- $6.4 million

  • http://cineenuruguay.blogspot.com/ Driver

    Warm Bodies - 23.6
    Silver Linings Playbook - 7.0
    Bullet to the Head - 6.8
    Hansel and Gretel - 6.0

  • Jack

    1. Warm Bodies- $15 million
    2. Hansel and Gretel- $7.5 million
    3. Silver Linings Playbook- $6 million
    4. Zero Dark Thirty- $5 million
    5. Bullet to the Head- $4.5 million
    6. Mama- $3.5 million
    7. Parker- $3 million
    8. Les Miserables- $2.5 million
    9. Lincoln- $2 million
    10. Django Unchained- $1.5 million

  • Chris Etrata

    Warm Bodies: 30 million it is then
    Bullet to Head: 3.2 million

  • Arthur Carlson

    1. Warm Bodies - $28.5M

    2. Hansel and Gretel - $9.1M

    3. Do I really have to write out the rest?

    Bullet to the Head - $7.2 M (either number 4 or 5)

  • John Debono

    1. Warm Bodies: $24.2 million
    2. Silver Linings Playbook: $7.7 million
    3. Hansel and Gretel: $7.1 million
    4. Mama: $6.8 million
    5. Zero Dark Thirty: $6.5 million
    6. Bullet To The Head: $5.8 million
    13. Stand Up Guys: $1.3 million

  • CJohn

    Warm Bodies - 15.1M
    Bullet to the Head - 5.2M

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Will-E/ Will-E

    Warm Bodies - 18.7
    Hansel Gretel - 9.7
    Playbook - 8.24
    Mama - 7.8
    Zero Dark - 5.84
    Bullet - 5.8
    Parker - 3.35
    Django - 3.19
    Lincoln - 2.76
    Les Mis - 2.52