Box Office Predictions

Box-Office Oracle: 'Trouble with the Curve' Will Slide Pass 'Dredd'

'House at the End of the Street,' 'End of Watch' and 'The Master' can only watch from below

Weekend Box-Office Predictions

Current Streak: 0 Straight Weekends #1 Predicted Correctly
Threat Level to Starting a New Streak: High
Reason: Trouble with the Curve is a terrible movie, and Dredd is solid. So there's at least a chance the market will make a smart decision, right?

After two absolutely horrid weekends we'll gain some semblance of normality back this weekend - a top twelve with a cume around $90m. We're back, baby! This weekend is also compelling because of the pure good vs. evil match-up. On one hand you have a movie that hates computers. On the other you've got a 3-D remake that's amazingly watchable. Let's break it down!

Trouble with the CurveTrouble with the Curve won't win the per theater average, but it should have enough marketing oomph to fend off Dredd. It's a demo that's under-served, older folk, and there's likely a family component here as well. The tracking is actually around $18m right now, but I had to dip it to $16.2 million because both Brad and myself abhorred it on a major level.

Strange side note: I took my in-laws to Trouble with the Curve and they basically liked it. It got a little awkward when I had to tell them just how wrong they were, but that was the only way healing could take place.

Dredd 3D is the film to take a hard look at if you're yearning for a spoiler. Sylvester Stallone's Judge Dredd opened at $5,500 per theater, and I've only got Dredd at $6,000... a full 17 years later. Ugh, I already hate picking against Dredd, and I hope the marketplace proves me wrong. I never though I'd be pulling for a 3-D film over a Clint Eastwood / Amy Adams movie, but here we are. It's a new world.

There's action further down the board as well, as House at the End of the Street, End of Watch and The Master should all finish in the top seven this weekend. The first film, House at the End of the Street has Jennifer Lawrence, which is a pretty impressive get for a horror film. Someone needs to do a study on how many Oscar nominees have starred in a thriller after their arthouse film. That equation usually goes the other direction. I'll wait while you do the research!

End of Watch has Jake Gyllenhaal ... but poor tracking given the hard R rating. The Master won't have enough theater counts to triumph, but it should make a nice showing a la There Will be Blood at the end of January back in 2008.

How say you? So much to consider this weekend, I know I ruminated quite a bit. Predictions away and Brad will be back Sunday morning to tell us how right (or wrong) we all were. Get your name in and be recognized in digital ink if you so dare.

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.

Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for September 21 - September 23, 2012

  1. Trouble with the Curve was #1 at the box-office
  2. Dredd 3D () - $14.4 million
    Playing in 2,400 theaters ($6,000 avg.) / 77%
  3. House at the End of the Street () - $12.35 million
    Playing in 2,600 theaters ($4,750 avg.) / 11%
  4. Finding Nemo () - $9.2 million
    Playing in 2,904 theaters ($3,168 avg.)
  5. End of Watch () - $7.5 million
    Playing in 2,730 theaters ($2,747 avg.) / 85%
  6. Resident Evil: Retribution () - $7.4 million
    Playing in 3,012 theaters ($2,457 avg.) / $65 million budget / 29%
  7. The Master () - $5 million
    Playing in 500 theaters ($10,000 avg.) / 85%
  8. The Possession () - $3.9 million
    Playing in 2,860 theaters ($1,364 avg.) / $14 million budget / 38%
  9. Lawless () - $3.3 million
    Playing in 3,063 theaters ($1,077 avg.)
  10. The Expendables 2 () - $1.9 million
    Playing in 2,400 theaters ($792 avg.) / $100 million budget / 65%
Click here to browse our box-office charts and compare Laremy's predictions
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  • Jack

    1. House at the End of the Street- $16 million
    2. Trouble with the Curve- $14.5 million
    3. End of Watch- $11 million
    4. Finding Nemo- $10 million
    5. Dredd- $8.5 million
    6. Resident Evil- $7.5 million
    7. The Master- $3 million
    8. The Possession- $2.5 million
    9. Lawless- $2 million
    10. Arbitrage- $1.5 million

  • Arthur Carlson

    1. Trouble With the Curve - $16M

    2. House at the End of the Street - $14.8M

    3. Dredd 3D - $12.4M

    4. Finding Nemo - $9.5M

    5. End of Watch - $7.2M

    6. The Master - $7.1M

    7. Resident Evil: Retribution - $7M

  • ajparas

    House at the end of the street 27.9 mil
    Dredd 17.1 mil
    trouble with curve 15.3 mil
    Finding nemo 10.2 mil
    end of watch 8.7 mil

  • Dennis

    Trouble. 24mil
    House 17.6mil
    Dredd 9.5 mil

  • Athar

    1.) Trouble with the Curve - 19.5 million
    2.) House at the End of the Street - $ 14.5 million
    3.) Dredd 3D - $ 13.2 million
    4.) End of Watch - $ 11.5 million

  • John Debono

    1. Trouble With The Curve: $18.9 million
    2. Dredd 3D: $15.6 million
    3. House At The End Of The Street: $13 million
    4. Finding Nemo: $10.2 million
    5. End Of Watch: $8.8 million
    Bonus: The Master: $6.1 million

  • The New Guy

    1. HATES- $23.1 million
    2. Dredd 3-D- $17.2 million
    3. Trouble with the Curve- $14.3 million
    4. End of watch- $10.6 million
    5. Finding Nemo- $8.8 million
    .
    .
    8. The Master- $4.3 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Mv11391/ Michael

    1. House At The End Of The Street - $21.3 million
    2. Trouble With The Curve - $15.8 million
    3. Dredd 3D - $11.0 million
    4. End Of Watch - $10.7 million
    5. Finding Nemo - $9.9 million
    6. The Master - $7.5 million
    7. Resident Evil 5 - $7.2 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Rach/ Rach

    Dredd-17 million
    Trouble with the Curve-13 million
    HATEOTS-11 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ian/ Ian

    Trouble With the Curve, $32 million.
    House at the End of the Street, $23 million.
    Dredd, $15 million.
    End of Watch, $8.2 million.
    The Master, $6 million.

    I'm going big on Trouble with the Curve; I think there's an underserved market there and it's the most appealing-looking film of the week to general audiences. I'm also high on House at the End of the Street, but I think Lawrence can sell some tickets just with her presence (granted it hasn't worked for KStew and RPatz, but it did for Radcliffe to a certain extent).

    Nothing in theatres for me this weekend, though I did see Samsara this past week. I'm waiting until next weekend for The Master so I can see it in 70mm.

  • CJohn

    The House at the End of the Street - 15.8M
    Trouble with the Curve - 13.5M
    Dredd 3D - 9.6M
    End of Watch - 7.1M
    --
    The Master - 6.4M

  • chriscarmichael

    1. Trouble with the Curve- $22.5 million
    2. Resident Evil- $11.5 million
    3. Finding Nemo- $8.6million
    4.House at the End of the Street- $8.1million
    5. Dredd- $6.5 million
    6. End of Watch- $6.2 million
    7. The Master- $5.9 million
    8. The Possession- $2.5 million
    9. Lawless- $2 million
    10. Arbitrage- $1.5 million

  • Chris Etrata

    House At End of Street: 19.3 million
    Trouble With the Curve: 17.3 million
    End of Watch: 8.1 million
    Dredd: 4.8 million

  • Friskey

    Guessing you're forgetting about a little movie that Jennifer Lawrence did AFTER her Oscar nomination based off some book that was semi-popular. "Hunger...Trials" or something. :P Of course, I talk about "The Hunger Games".

    Here's the thing...HATES has been completed for a good bit and was supposed to be released in April, but decided to shelve it, at least until that little movie came out and was a juggernaut, so they've pushed this back to this weekend. To pretty much bank on it and try and get a little money. Hell, the ad campaign is promoting the movie as featuring "The Hunger Games's Jennifer Lawrence" in the TV spots.

    So there's your research, and most likely why HATES will top the box office this weekend.

    1.) HATES - $20.3M
    2.) Trouble with the Curve - $19.4M
    5.) End of Watch - $9.5M
    7.) Dredd - $5.4M

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/TheMovieGuru/ The Movie Guru

    1. Trouble With The Curve- $23 million
    2. House at the End of the Street- $16 million
    3. Dredd- $13.5 million
    4. Resident Evil- $10.7 million
    5. End of Watch- $10.5 million
    6. Finding Nemo- $9 million

    The Master- $6.7 million
    .

  • http://www.moviecriticassassins.com Sensei White Lotus

    Hey, Rope's got a brand new bag...

    1. Trouble With Curve - 17 Million.
    2. House At End Of Street - 15 Million.
    3. Dredd - 11.5 Million.
    4. Finding Nemo 3D - 10 Million.
    5. End Of Watch - 9.4 Million.

    Good to be back.

  • Austin G.

    House at the End of the Street - $20.1 million
    Trouble with the Curve - $19.5 million
    Dredd - $10.8 million
    End of Watch - $8.9 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/G-Man/ G-Man

    First time in a while I'm excited for two movies being released in the same weekend with Dredd and End of Watch. If you had asked me a couple months ago, I would have said I was most excited for Trouble With The Curve and House at the End of the Street.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/G-Man/ G-Man

      Just remembered "Perks of Being a Wallflower" comes out in limited release tomorrow. Three films. Nice.

  • jess E.

    Well, since I will be seeing "Trouble" and "End of Watch" this weekend I will give these two the edge over the others.

    1. "Trouble with the Curve"........21m..seniors will come out ..if not this wk..next.
    2. "House on the end"...............18m..Kids like spook movies
    3. "End of Watch".......................15m...this film could surprise...
    4. "Dredd"...................................13m...3D special effects has critics raving..??

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/RyanJayden/ Ryan Jayden

    Trouble With The Curve - $17.1 million
    House At The End Of The Street - $10.5 million
    Dredd - $9.8 million
    End Of Watch - $7.5 million

  • Gerberzy

    Trouble with the Curve- 15.6 million
    End of Watch-12.6 million
    House at End of Street- 11.8 million
    Dredd-10.2 million
    The Master- 4.0 million

  • dwimb99

    I do not know how to calculate the amount of money each movie makes, but here are my predictions

    1. End of Watch

    2. Dredd

    3. Trouble With the Curve.

    4. Resident Evil: Retribution

    5. Finding Nemo 3D

    6. House at the End of the Street

    7. The Master

    8. The Possession

    9. Lawless

    10. The Expendables 2

    8.

  • anthony caban

    1.Dredd $35 Million
    2.End of Watch $31 Million
    3.Trouble with the Curve $28 Million
    4.Resident Evil 5 $18 Million
    5.House at the End of the Street $9 Million

  • Alex

    I believe Master has a bigger roll out than just 500 screens. I'm going high on this one:

    Master - 7.4 mil.