Box Office Predictions

Box-Office Oracle: 'The Hobbit' Goes for Four Wins Against 'Texas Chainsaw 3D'

Can anything stop 'The Hobbit' from steam-rolling to a four-peat?

Weekend Box-Office Predictions

Current Streak: 0 Weekends in a Row
Threat Level to Streak Being Broken: 95 percent. The first weekend after a holiday is a nightmare. Proceed with predictive caution.
Reason: The numbers are low, meaning 100,000 tickets either way will make a huge difference.

The HobbitThe Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey is attempting to become the first film since The Hunger Games to hit four weekends in a row, and accomplishment that's becoming an exceptionally rare feat (Avatar was the last film prior). Not to be a wet blanket, but it's tracking about $20 million behind The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Still, $706 million worldwide works, though the real question will be how well they set up the sequel. Based on completely anecdotal word of mouth, I don't think they have, but that A- CinemaScore certainly disputes my theory.

I'm targeting a $20.4 million finish for The Hobbit this weekend, enough to get that fourth weekend in a row, but it's going to be close.

If the budget for Les Miserables was indeed $61 million, then the $129 million worldwide is a nice start and I have it battling at a close second this weekend with $20.2 million. To become a major success, however, they'll need an Academy push plus international, as the domestic number looks to be capped at $150 million. There simply aren't enough fans of musicals to go around.

The forecast for Django Unchained is a bit cloudier, because the international prospects have to be projected at less than Inglourious Basterds' $200 million haul. The math on Basterds was $321 million on a $70 million production budget, a very healthy 4.5 multiplier, but if Django Unchained only pulls $240 million on $100 million budget, it's a much lesser success, and a Best Picture nom (with zero chance at a win) probably won't make a home video impact.

The only other compelling story of the weekend is Texas Chainsaw Massacre 3D. January is the month to trot out a horror winner, just look at The Devil Inside for precedent, but I think folks have soured a bit on 3D and reboots. As such, I'm awarding it $6,000 per theater, a number more in line with The Rite and a fourth place, $15 million opening.

Enough bloviation, what's your take? The top four is all worthy of your prediction, getting the order correct will be quite an accomplishment because they're all bunched up like a scrunchie. Go out there and get some!

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.

Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for January 4 - January 6, 2013

  1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey was #1 at the box-office
  2. Les Miserables () - $20.2 million
    Playing in 2,814 theaters ($7,178 avg.) / $61 million budget
  3. Django Unchained () - $19.6 million
    Playing in 3,010 theaters ($6,512 avg.) / $100 million budget / 88%
  4. Texas Chainsaw 3D () - $15 million
    Playing in 2,500 theaters ($6,000 avg.) / 18%
  5. Jack Reacher () - $9 million
    Playing in 3,352 theaters ($2,685 avg.) / $60 million budget / 62%
  6. Parental Guidance () - $7.7 million
    Playing in 3,367 theaters ($2,287 avg.) / $25 million budget / 19%
  7. This is 40 () - $7 million
    Playing in 2,914 theaters ($2,402 avg.) / $35 million budget / 51%
  8. Silver Linings Playbook () - $4.3 million
    Playing in 1,000 theaters ($4,300 avg.) / $21 million budget / 92%
  9. Lincoln () - $4.2 million
    Playing in 1,500 theaters ($2,800 avg.) / $65 million budget / 89%
  10. Monsters, Inc. () - $4.1 million
    Playing in 2,618 theaters ($1,566 avg.)
Click here to browse our box-office charts and compare Laremy's predictions
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  • Ferdi

    According to Box Office Mojo 'Promised Land' (1,675 theatres) and 'The Impossible' (572 theatres) will have a nationwide expansion. Aren't they counted in?

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AndrewJ.S./ Andrew J.S.

    Texas Chainsaw 3D 25.4
    The Hobbit 20.1
    Django 18.8
    Les Mis 18.2

  • Casper12

    Django Unchained or Les Miserables will top this weekend.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

    Django is crushing it. It beat out Hobbit and Les Mis yesterday.

    • CJ

      ........................ By barely $100,000. Hardly crushing it. It also topped The Hobbit on Christmas Day and every day after got battered by it. Yesterday's 'victory' won't be a constant thing, it will fluctuate.

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

        It's pretty significant that a hard R rated film filled with brutal violence made $100,000 more than The Hobbit & Les Mis and it's on track to become QT's highest grossing film..... but I don't even know why I'm responding since it's obviously you "Jarrod/Allan."

        Piece of advice: If you want to pass yourself off as someone else, try re-phrasing your comments so that they don't come off as derogatory. I mean, you're not even trying...

        • http://www.rabidpictures.com Yaz

          It is significant but not so much when you consider it's a QT film. His popularity and 'cool' factor are increasing with every film, so that needs to be taken into account. Still an accomplishment, but I would see it as much more of one if it wasn't a QT film... If that makes any sense.

  • Winchester

    1. Django Unchained - $22.1 million

    2. The Hobbit - $19.8 million

    3. Les Miserables - $17.9 millio

    4. Whatever the horror flick is called, I don't even care.........$14.8 million

    I Didn't realise Django supposedly cost $100 million to make, so since it has a heavier budget to overcome than Les Mis (with $61 million) since both are looking at maybe around the $150 - 170 million range for final grosses Django needs international more than Les Mis. But Les Mis has a big built in global audience and foreign has been solid so far and it hasn't even opened in other big markets like the UK. I don't know how to judge Django's international appeal beyond the Tarantino fans. But it should make at least another $100 million there.

  • Jack

    1. The Hobbit- $18 million
    2. Django Unchained- $15 million
    3. Les Miserables- $13.5 million
    4. Texas Chainsaw- $13 million
    5. Parental Guidance- $8 million
    6. Jack Reacher- $6.5 million
    7. This is 40 -$5 million
    8. Lincoln- $3.5 million
    9. Silver Linings Playbook- $2.5 million
    10. Promised Land- $2 million

  • adu

    I loved both Hobbit & Django so would love to see any of those top the weekend.

  • http://cinemaconfessions.blogspot.com Gautam

    1. Django Unchained- $18.5 million
    2. The Hobbit- $18 million
    3. Les Miserables- $14 million
    4. Texas Chainsaw- $12.5 million
    5. Parental Guidance- $ 8 million
    6. Jack Reacher- $7 million
    7. This is 40 -$ 6 million
    8. Silver Linings Playbook- $ 4.2 million
    9. Lincoln- $ 4 million
    10. The Impossible - $ 3.5 million

  • Chris Etrata

    Texas Chainsaw: 14.5 million
    Promise Land: 1.8 million.

  • Roger

    Django 21.2M
    Hobbit 19.8M
    Miserables 18.8M
    Texas 14.6M

  • Deb

    Why compare the first movie in one series to the final movie in a different series? RotK Movie-goers had 2 previous movies to build relationships with characters and engage with their stories and the trilogy's story. Audiences are just meeting the Hobbit characters and being introduced to the story. If you must compare it with another film drawn from a Tolkien story, why in earth not The Fellowship of the Ring? And, while you're at it, recreate the economic conditions of 2001?

    • adu

      Totally agree. People just wanna hate a three-peater by hook or crook :)
      )

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ian/ Ian

      Actually with nine years of inflation, plus 3D and IMAX inflation, I think it's a perfectly fair comparison. And for what it's worth, if The Fellowship of the Ring were released this year and sold half of its tickets in 3D (as The Hobbit has), it would be at roughly $385 million right now.

  • Arthur Carlson

    1. Texas Chainsaw 3D - $21M
    2. Django Unchained - $18.6M
    3. The Hobbit - $18.3M
    4. Les Miserables - $16M
    5. Jack Reacher - $8.6M

  • Joie

    1 The Hobbit $23,000,000
    2 Django Unchained $22,000,000
    3 Les Miserables $20,000,000
    4 Texas Chainsaw 3D $15,000,000
    5 Jack Reacher $9,500,000
    6 Parental Guidance $8,000,000
    7 This is 40 $7,500,000
    8 Promised Land $7,000,000
    9 Lincoln $5,500,000
    10 Monsters Inc. 3D $4,750,000

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Will-E/ Will-E

    Django 21
    Hobbit 19
    Les Mis 17
    Chainsaw 15.78
    40 9.56
    Reacher 9.24
    Promise 8.7
    Parental 6.8
    Lincoln 5.5
    Playbook 4.5

    With Promise Land expanding I feel good about top 10. Looking for Django to win based on good word of mouth. Les Mis and Hobbit should start to wane. Fingers crossed for that.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ian/ Ian

    Talk about a tough weekend to predict. As I think about it, I really don't think Texas Chainsaw stands a chance. Exorcism and found footage are all the rage in horror right now and slasher films have kind of fallen by the wayside. I'm pretty confident in a 40% drop for The Hobbit (which is performing remarkably similar to I Am Legend...except a little bit better every weekend) and a 35% drop for Les Mis, which seems to be a good average of popular musicals off their wide openings. I'm more iffy on Django, though the fact that it's been climbing closer and closer to The Hobbit--and finally beating it yesterday--makes me think it'll hold quite well. I know I'm seeing it again this weekend.

    1. Django Unchained, $20 million
    2. The Hobbit, $19.1 million.
    3. Les Miserables, $17.5 million
    4. Texas Chainsaw, $13.2 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Corbin/ Corbin

    1. Django- $24.6 mil.
    2. Hobbit- $22.7 mil.
    3. Les Mis- $18.5 mil.
    4. Texas Chainsaw 3D- $15.8 mil.
    5. Jack Reacher- $11.3 mil.

  • chriscarmichael

    1. Django Unchained- $21.2 million (Go Django Go!)
    2. The Hobbit- $18.9 million
    3. Les Miserables- $15.6 million
    4. Texas Chainsaw- $10.2 million
    5. Parental Guidance- $ 6.8 million
    6. Jack Reacher- $6.6 million
    7. This is 40 -$ 5.4million
    8. Lincoln- $ 4.1 million
    9. The Impossible - $ 4.05 million
    10. Promised land $ 3.2 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/DArtagnan/ DArtagnan

    Django Unchained - $20.7 million
    Les Miserables - $19.9 million
    The Hobbit - $17.4 million
    Texas Chainsaw - $14.2 million
    Jack Reacher - $9.7 million

  • http://topyxyz.wordpress.com Topy

    I say Django FTW! $19.5M

  • Gerberzy

    Django- 21.1 million
    Hobbit- 19.9 million
    Les Mis- 17.4 million
    Texas Chainsaw- 14.2 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/T-1000/ TJ

    Tough weekend to predict, but I think the favorites will stay on top over the out of place horror movie.

    The Hobbit - $21.5 mil.
    Django Unchained - $19.2 mil.
    Les Miserables - $15.4 mil.
    Texas Chainsaw - $10.2 mil.
    Jack Reacher - $8.7 mil.
    This Is 40 - $6.5 mil.
    Parental Guidance - $5.2 mil.
    Lincoln - $4.8 mil.
    Silver Linings Playbook - $3.4 mil.
    Promised Land - $2.8 mil.

  • Mr.Jim

    I dont know texas has the most showings in theaters it seems but the hobbit has the most theaters also name the last horror movie that anybody even remembers... you cant remember exactly, I expect a flock of teens and young adults starved for something scary in 3d Im predicting My bloody valentine numbers and someone please shoot me I actually remembered the name of that movie. I think mis fades out after the christmas rush since thats what a lot of families went to see over the holidays while django holds steady with good word of mouth
    Big 4
    1. texas chainsaw- 23.4 bloody did 24.1 over 4 days but chainsaw has more appeal
    2. Django- 21
    3. Hobbit- 18.6
    4.Mis- 15.4

  • Chris

    Django for the win! Beats everything by bring the only film above 20 million at $21.2M

  • http://www.moviecriticassassins.com Sensei White Lotus

    Damn, already Friday morning. Anyway, here's my numbers published on Thursday at the home site.

    1. Hobbit - 20 Million
    2. Django Unchained - 19.2
    3. Les Mis.. - 16 Million.

    Texas Chainsaw 3D - 15.2

    Full details here...

    http://moviecriticassassins.com/predictions/box-office-predictions-january-4-6/

    I agree, close weekend.

  • The Jackal

    The Hobbit indeed looks like a lock over all comers this weekend. I'm curious to see how well it fares when Zero Dark Thirty goes wide next week.

    1. The Hobbit - $20.2
    2. Les Miserables - $19.1
    3. Django Unchained - $17.5
    4. Texas Chainsaw 3D - $12.8
    5. Jack Reacher - $7.4

    Thems the facts