Box-Office Oracle: 'The Avengers' Go for Three in a Row Against 'Battleship' and 'The Dictator'

Weekend Box-Office Predictions for May 18-20, 2012

Can you say three-peat? I think you can, because it's fairly easy to pronounce. Three-peat! Let's break it down ...

Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 2 Weeks In A Row

The Avengers

What a run for The Avengers! A billion worldwide on a production budget of $220m, and it's still got weeks of earning ahead. It will pass Toy Story 3 for #2 on the all-time 3-D list this weekend, which is as far as it will ever get because Avatar's $760m domestic is well out of reach.

2012 is also on a roll, we're only in May, and we've already had two films -- The Avengers and The Hunger Games -- go over $382m domestically. How many films accomplished that in 2011? Zero. We can also expect The Dark Knight Rises to get well over that number, making the score 3 to zilch and that's only through July.

Prediction: $60.5 million

Whoo boy, this one is quite the disaster. The tracking is higher, but I think it has little chance of picking up word of mouth this weekend. I'm betting against. The best anyone will say about this is "Well, it WAS quite loud". Good thing they've already clocked $215m internationally, for a rainy day.
Prediction: $30.5 million
I wanted to go even lower because the trailers don't interest me at all ... but then again I'm a focus group of one, anecdotal evidence at best. Then I noticed Bruno opened at $11k per theater, and Borat did the same once it reached 2,500 theaters. So how can I go lower than $6k per theater here? Answer: I can't.
Prediction: $18 million
The biggest dipper of the weekend. How did they spend $150m on this??!! Where's the money, Burton??!!
Prediction: $13.6 million
I realize this has been a popular book over the course of many decades ... but I still think it's a terrible title. The reviews haven't been too kind, but at least they are targeting an under-served audience.
Prediction: $13.5 million
What's the record for domestic vs international multiplier? Because stateside this is rocking about 100x to 1 right now.
Prediction: $4.4 million
This has made $80m worldwide! If it had done that domestically, it would be in the top ten for 2012.
Prediction: $4 million
At this point, shouldn't they just rush it to home video? You don't want to risk losing any demand.
Prediction: $2.8 million
I've managed to repress most of this movie.
Prediction: $2.4 million
Eva Mendes is in this! That, plus the fact that it takes nothing to get in the top ten makes Girl in Progress a winner this year.
Prediction: $1.7 million

How say you? Think Battleship has the oomph to take the top spot? Am I too low on What to Expect or The Dictator? Predictions away!

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  • Jack

    My updated grosses:

    1. The Avengers- $55.6 million

    2. Battleship- $41 million

    3. What to Expect- $19 million- might seem strong and might think I'm an idoit, but this could go either way i think, especially with the mediocre WOM of Dark Shadows and Dictator

    4. The Dictator- $18 million

    5. Dark shadows- 13 million

  • Athar

    1.) The Avengers - $ 64 million

    2.) Battleship - $ 55 million

    I was initially going to go with a mid-30s prediction thinking that people who want to go to watch an Action Blockbuster would go for The Avengers. But then there might be another theory that since this year there have already been 2 Big hype spectacles (The Hunger Games and The Avengers) which have been better than expectations, maybe people would want to give other movies a try too. The average to bad reviews might end up helping the movie too as people already know that this aint a Classic. Its just a leave-your-brains-at-home type Popcorn flick.

    3.) What To Expect When You're Expecting - $ 28 million

    People saying that the Female Demo is going to skip this and go for Marvel's Finest. I highly doubt that. Those Females who were lured to The Avengers by WOM, would have already caught up with it last week. This one even has a potential to go higher.

    4. The Dictator - $ 21 million
    5. Dark Shadows - $ 13.5 million

  • Arthur Carlson

    1. The Avengers - $54.7m

    2. Battleship - $30m This movie still feels like a skit on SNL or something where they make fun of producers for making an adaptation out of something mundane in our past. But it's not a joke and I know few people interested in it.

    3. The Dictator - $18.2m

    4. Dark Shadows - $12.7m

    5. Expecting - $12.1m. A woman picture advertised directly at men. (was there a commercial at all that featured the women in any capacity other than background to the men's group.). That's probably going to backfire.

  • John-PT

    Avengers - 58.45M
    Battleship - 36.78M
    The Dictator - 22.32M
    What to Expect When You Are Expecting - 20.11M
    Dark Shadows - 13.67M

  • Winchester

    Battleship is a wreck, I don't especially believe word of mouth is saving this one any more than it saved John Carter.

    1 - The Avengers $58.7 million (too unstoppable, the only real question now is can it break $600 million? I think probably not but is it entirely out the question? Not with this juggernaut and yet it has to stop somewhere).

    2 - Battleship $42.3 million (with the caveat that being a wreck does not prevent getting a decent start and I don't doubt that the Transformers skwewing marketing will fail to pull in some, but this isn't even as good as Revenge of the Fallen in that vein).

    • AJ

      By almost everyone's guesses, Avengers will end this weekend at over $450m and be coming off of a third weekend total that most movies would be thrilled to have as their opening. I have to guess that, even relinquishing the top spot to MIB3, the Avengers will still pass $500m with the memorial holiday.

      With kids finally out of school to attend weekday showings, and still coming off of a significant holiday weekend gross ($30-40m by my early conservative guess), I think that not only isn't it out of the question, I think that the odds are in it's favor that it coasts past $600m.

  • Ryan Jayden

    The Avengers - $59.9 million
    Battleship - $31 million
    The Dictator - $20.8 million

  • Chris Etrata

    Avengers: 62.3 million
    Battle Ship: 32.6 million
    Dictator: 16.8 million.
    What to expect when you're expecting(sums up the quality of most generic films like this): 9.3 million.

  • gripmonster

    The Avengers: 61.5 million
    Battleship: 38.8 million
    Dictator: 21.2 million
    What to expect: 16.3 million

  • Bustray

    1. The Avengers- $52 million
    2. Battleship- $43.5 million
    3. The Dictator- $16.5 million
    4. Dark Shadows- $14.1 million
    5. What to Expect When You're Expecting- $12.8 million

  • chriscarmichael

    1. The Avengers- $46 million
    2. Battleship- $37.5 million
    3. The Dictator- $19.5 million
    4. Dark Shadows- $15.1 million
    5. What to Expect When You're Expecting- $14.8 million
    6. The best Exotic M. H. $4.1 million
    7. Think like a man $3.8 million
    8. Lucky one $2.8 million
    9. Hunger Games $1.9 million
    10. Girl in Progress $1.4million

  • Aron

    1. Avengers -$65 million I can't see this doing under 60 million, it's loved.
    2. Battleship-$30 million Mixed reviews, action genre (in which we have the Avengers as a better choice), no franchise or huge actors, and no real hype. Wouldn't be surprised if this one went under 30 million.
    3. The Dictator- $23 million People just want a good comedy, and this looks like one. Sacha Baron Cohen's name is big enough, and it has a great marketing. Codmedy-lovers will choose this, and there are many comedy-lovers.
    4. Dark Shadows- $12 million A kind of cool trailer, but no hype, no good reviews, and Depp+Burton is simply not enough for more than this.
    5. What to expect when you're expecting- $9 million I can't see this getting money. Comedy-fans will go to the Dictator, girls will go to the Avengers with their boyfriend or to Battleship with Rihanna, but not to a kind of noname comedy.

  • Dennis

    Battleship 46mil
    What to Expect 26mil
    The Dictator 14mil

  • John Debono

    1. The Avengers: $61.6 million
    2. Battleship $35.3 million (I would have added at least another $3 million if it had the line "You sunk my battleship.")
    3. The Dictator: $20.8 million
    4. What To Expect When Your Expecting: $14.1 million
    5. Dark Shadows: $12.7 million

  • Well..

    I'm definitely betting on Avengers but Battleship has some interest.

    1) Avengers 65 million (the high end of estimates for sure)
    2) Battleship 47 million
    3) What to expect when you're expecting 25 million
    4) Dictator 23 million
    5) Dark Shadows 19 million

    I really think Battleship is going to pull in every young kid who is excited it reminds them of Transformers.

  • Ferdi

    Quite a weekend for Brooklyn Decker who is starring in both What to Expect When You're Expecting and Battleship lol!

    1) The Avengers: $66,7 million (It has the perfect word of mouth for a summer blockbuster to hold on steady even with some (rather weak in my opinion) competition. I think this movie will be seen again by people as most of the people loved seeing it the first time and they ended up seeing the movie numerous times more)

    2) Battleship: $33,7 million (Not a lot to say for this one, I saw it twice in theatres and it was a loud unscripted mess and it was way too familair with the Transformers movies! I think it might appeal to audiences because they were somehow interested in seeing it but for this one there is 0% staying power or great word of mouth. Only the visual effects are remarkable)

    3) The Dictator: $23,4 million (It already opened with $4,1 million in it's Wednesday debut and that was kinda better than expected so people might like this movie. The reviews suggest it's true and it might draw some audiences, especially the Sacha Baron Cohen fans out there)

    4) What to Expect When You're Expecting: $21,2 million (This spot could always go to Dark Shadows if WTEWYE flops, it might draw a lot of female audiences as they were seeking for a great alternative for the summer blockbuster The Avengers but that just might be it. Even with it's star-studded cast it stands not that much a chance compared to the competition. It is getting released in over 3,000 theatres so that might help...)

    5) Dark Shadows: $17,4 million (Will drop steep mainly because of the direct competition. Hope it will do better however as I loved this movie but I'm afraid word of mouth isn't all that positive)

  • Pockets O’tool

    Avengers - 54.3m

    Battleship - 32m

    The Dictator - 17.2m

  • Ian

    1. The Avengers, $62 million.
    2. Battleship, $37 million.
    3. What to Expect When You're Expecting, $27 million.
    4. The Dictator, $15 million.
    5. Dark Shadows, $13.3 million.

  • Topy

    I say "What to Expect" is good counterprogramming...

    1. The Avengers - $55M - competition will dip it a bit more.
    2. Battleship - $35M - Nah, let's just go see the Avengers again
    3. What To Expect When You're Not Expecting - $31M
    4. The Dictator - $22 - bad timing actually
    5. Dark Shadows - $14 - will burn to ashes...

  • Brian

    The Avengers - 51.5m
    Battleship - 48.6m

  • Rg Serna

    Avengers- $ 62 million
    Battleship-$ 41 million

  • Paul

    'The Hunger Games' is only 11 & change from hitting $400 million domestic. I'm pretty certain Liosngate is pushing/hoping to hit that goal. It'll be close but I think they can do it.

    As for 'The Avengers' it's a given right now that the film is going to end up as the highest grossing film NOT DIRECTED by James Cameron. I don't think it can surpass 'Avatar' BUT wouldn't it be awesome to see the film overcome 'Titanic'? For the first time since 1997/8 a movie will have come out & knocked Cameron down a step.

    ...Until Avatar 2, 3, 4, 5, & 6 come out.

    • Winchester

      I'm sorry I'm not entirely sure of your you think Cameron is going to be phased by that in some way?

  • Thushan

    Avengers-65 million.