Box-Office Oracle: Sep. 3 – Sep. 5, 2010
Going the Distance over Machete and The American? Gulp. Buckle your seat belts!
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| I'm going rom-com at the top, ahead of grindhouse cinema and moody Clooney drama. Yes, this one is rated R, but it's also one of two titles to have 3,000 theaters and it will only need $4500 per screen to hit this small number. Plus the reviews and word of mouth should be pretty solid. The tracking disagrees with me, throwing Machete in the top slot. But I'm going against the conventional wisdom because my working theory is that this demo would be slightly missed by tracking due the same polling vagaries that skew election polling. With all that said, I liked the film. Brad did too. So if those recommendations mean anything you might end up being the determining vote because about 10,000 tickets could decide this thing. Prediction: $13.365 million | |
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There's pretty much no prediction that will be massively outlandish this weekend … unless you're going $20m in the top spot. Other than that, arguments can be made for Clooney, Trejo, and Barrymoore. Which leaves us in your capable hands, gentle commenters!
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I think your #1 is right on. If history tells us anything, it's that 'fanboy' movies (bad term, but there's no better way to describe them) don't deliver at the box office.
:MY 3-Day PREDICTIONS:
1. TAKERS – $11.4M
2. THE AMERICAN – $11.2M
3. GOING THE DISTANCE – $10.5M
4. MACHETE -$9.3M
5. THE LAST EXORCISM – $7.0M
6. THE EXPENDABLES – $6.1M
7. EAT PRAY LOVE – $4.8M
8. THE OTHER GUYS – $4.6M
9. INCEPTION – $3.6M
10.NANNY MCPHEE – $3.2M
"The American" will have a tough time hitting double digits based on the Wed. number. I say "Going the Distance" will win because men will be watching football? But "Machete" and "Takers" can win also due to the slow weekend.
At lease we have a slam dunk #1 next week.
1.The American-$19.2 (N/A)
2.Machete-$18.7 (N/A)
3.The Last Exorcism-$15.3 (-25%)
4.Going the Distance-$15.3 (N/A)
5.Takers-$10.2 (-51%)
6.The Other Guys-$4.5 (-32%)
7.The Expendables-$4 (-58%)
8.Eat Pray Love-$3.9 (-44%)
9.Inception-$3.8 (-26%)
10.Get Low-$2.5 (+47%)
1. Going the Distance, $15.1 million. This is surely this weekend's safe bet, even with the R rating, as there hasn't been a romantic comedy in a while. Even with the bad reviews, the fact that Brad and Laremy both liked it (and a very funny-looking trailer) may convince me to see it.
2. The American, $12.7 million. I think this is a bit of a wild card. I wouldn't be discouraged by the Wednesday number; this is a film that will primarily play to the older crowd who are much less likely to rush out and see a film on an opening Wednesday. It's been marketed as an actioner similar to the Bourne films or Taken, but I think the reviews that have dispelled that notion might drive away the action crowd. Still, Clooney is popular with the above mentioned older crowd, so it should do decently. I'm giving it a PTA between Michael Clayton and Syriana, but leaning toward the former, which was lower. But again, I wouldn't be surprised to see this swing a few million either way, and maybe challenge for the win. I'll be seeing it tomorrow.
3. Machete, $10.6 million. This has got to be one of the purest examples of a fanboy-driven movie ever…and with Grindhouse's very poor performance three years ago, there can't be that many fanboys to begin with. And Piranha showed that there isn't much of an audience for hard R violence and sex marketed as comedy. That being said, I'll be there tomorrow as I loved Grindhouse and I'm stoked that this actually got made.
4. Takers, $8.2 million. 60% drop.
5. The Last Exorcism, $7.1 million. 65% drop and that may be conservative.
6. The Expendables, $4.7 million.
7. Eat Pray Love, $3.7 million.
8. The Other Guys, $3.4 million.
9. Inception, $3.1 million. Crawling toward $300 million; I still say it comes up a little short.
10. Nanny McPhee Returns, $2.5 million.
Regarding Toy Story, I noticed that two theatres in my area got it back in 3D this week after dropping it several weeks ago (another theatre here has had it since it opened, but dropped it to 2D only a few weeks ago), and now I see the 1,000 theatre gain on BOM. I'm just about positive that it's due to the lackluster numbers put up by Cats and Dogs, Step Up, and Piranha, and even Despicable Me only took 45% of its opening weekend gross from 3D (I didn't see any more numbers on it after that, which isn't at all surprising if they stayed low). 3D-equipped projectors are often in some of the biggest auditoriums at most theatres, and you know they hate to run 2D films on those projectors when 3D is the only reason theatres are upgrading from film projection to digital anyway. All that being said, while it's still putting up a decent PTA ($1,500-2,000 the last few weekends) it will be interesting to see if more people go to see it with the wider availability, keeping the PTA about the same, or if the PTA takes a massive hit because more people don't go see it. If it does maintain last weekend's PTA with the added theatres, it would challenge for tenth on my chart and Laremy's.
"There hasn't been a romantic comedy in a while."
The Switch?
Gimme 24M for Machete, 14M for Going the Distance
Takers – 12.1M
Machete – 12.0M
Going the Distance – 11.8M
The American – 11.1M
The Last Exorcism – 7.9M
Machete should do exactly what you predicted. The reasons why Machete will do better than Piranha 3D are:
1. Robert Rodriguez has quite a fan base. There's a lot people who love Sin City and a few others (like myself) who love Planet Terror and Grindhouse in general.
2. Many people didn't understand that Piranha isn't intended to be serious. I can't say how true this is because I haven't seen it, but from what I've heard, the advertisements didn't portray the movie as it actually is: a campy homage to 70s horror. Machete's advertisements definitely make it more clear that it is intentionally hokey.
3. Machete has star power and hot women. Danny Trejo, Cheech Marin, Robert De Niro, Steven Seagal, Jessica Alba, Michelle Rodriguez, and Lindsay Lohan are all in this movie. That cast, with the exception of Lindsay Lohan, is perfection.
4. Lindsay Lohan is nude in it. Hey, it's puts some asses in the seats.
5. Piranha 3D wasn't released on Labor Day or any holiday.
Actually Lohan isn't nude in the film at all. It's funny how "reports from early screenings" said she was "naked almost the whole time" and it turns out she actually has no nudity at all. Her character is nude in the threesome scene from the Grindhouse trailer, but that is the actual scene from the trailer, and she was not the actress in that scene. Of course it's nothing new for studios to plant the notion of nudity in order to sell tickets, but it's still funny. And really, I doubt it would have made much difference in ticket sales anyway.
Actually, you do get to see Lindsay sans clothing in the film, but she's mostly covered up (her body is underwater at the first part, her breasts are covered by her hair the second time). Just wanted to clear that up because I'm a pervert.
Don't think that Machete will do extremely well, but it could get to $12 million for the four-day, which isn't bad. Unlike the Expendables (which catered to just about everyone looking for a good ol' action film), the audience for this one is mostly die-hard Rodriguez fans. Even if the film tops out at around $20-25 million, that's about what Grindhouse did in domestic receipts with a far bigger budget & stronger marketing. All in all,even if Machete doesn't put up blockbuster numbers, it'll be in the black sooner rather than later.
The only reason I'm going so low on Machete is because I seriously can't buy it grossing more than Grindhouse even with a better release date. People do remember that movie flopped right? So why would this movie do more when nobody really saw Grindhouse in the first place? Even if you bring up the dvd playability arguement Grindhouse didn't do that well there either. I can only see Machete getting strong support from the Grindhouse fans and that's a VERY limited audience. Even with all the mad respect and love that I have for Rodriguez he is still not a mainstream pull like Nolan or Cameron and his past movies seem to do well because they were marketed well not because his name was attached.
1. Machete – $14M
2. Going the Distance – $13.2M
3. The American – $11M
4. Takers – $10.6M
5. The Last Exorcism – $8.6M
Machete should make it to the top. The Robert Rodriguez fans will be out and then it will disappear quick. Drew Barrymore has a few fans as well. The Wednesday number isn't too bad. Seems to be headed to a decent weekend. Um, that's it for me. I tend to not have the time I used to have to give out my opinion. Though I did just waste time to write that last sentence.
Actually the Toy Story 3 theaters are NOT of the bargain kind. I was looking at the theater times in my hometown, and this weekend Toy Story 3 is playing in three theaters (all regular; there's only one bargain theater, out of 15 or 16 total). Six theaters are adding it on Friday (I think all in 3D), and none of them are the bargain theater. It happens, especially on Labor Day. "Pearl Harbor" did something similar. And, more recently, Wall-E added 370 theaters on Labor Day.
Otherwise:
Machete: $12.5mil (its audience is going to be on DVD).
Going the Distance: $12mil.
The American: $8.2mil. Weak opening, but it may gain a wee bit of momentum. Not too much, though, because apparently it's divisive. That never bodes well for serious R-rated movies (example: Watchmen)
Machete $18.5m urban audience movie underestimated by tracking
The American $13.5 George Clooney a decent draw
Going The Distance $12m $3600 PTA from second tier Hollywood talent plus an extra mil for the sunday holiday-needs a stronger male lead to do better
I noticed the Toy Story thing. I think multiplexes like to have a variety of offerings for every audience and Nanny McPhee perhaps didn't do as well as was hoped.
I shouldn't say second tier talent. I meant second tier box office draw.
1. Machete 14.3m 2. Going the Distance 13.2m 3. The American 10.6m 4. Takers 9.5m 5. The Last Exorcism 9.3m 6. The Expendables 5.6m 7. The Other Guys 3.2m 8. Inception 2.9m 9. Nanny McPhee 2 2.8m 10. Eat Pray Love 2.4m
Toy Story 3's per theater average isn't rising from $1,685 to almost $4,000. Come on.
1 – Going the Distance – $14.3 million
2 – Takers – $10.2 million
3 – Machete – $10 million
4 – The American – $9.2 million
5 – The Last Exorcism – $8 million
6 – The Expendables – $5.2 million
7 – The Other Guys – $3.7 million
8 – Inception – $3.0 million
9 – Nanny McPhee Returns – $2.9 million
10 – Eat Pray Love – $2.5 million
I don't see Machete breaking out unless it does so on it's own advertising and not because of the Grindhouse audience alone, which would be nowhere near enough to give it a bigger than Grindhouse opening so I'm going for a lower estimate.
I think Going the Distance will edge it out overall for the weekend thanks to a trailer that's not half bad and a likeable cast.
1 – Going the Distance – 17.8
2 – American – 14.4
3 – Takers – 12.1
4 – Machete – 11.9
5 – The Last Exorcism – 7.9
I won't be surprised if Toy Story 3 makes a return to the top 10 given it's getting an expansion to 1500+ screens over the holiday weekend (no, it's not the discount theater run yet). In fact, I'm going to call it with a 3.5mil 3-day and 4.2mil 4-day.
ooops..1500+ THEATERS is what I meant.