Comments on: Box-Office Oracle: Sep. 25 – Sep. 27, 2009

By: Jonh-PT

Jonh-PT — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 11:00:33 +0000

Early Steve Manson Friday results:

Cloudy wins again with $5.5M, Sorrugates opens with $5.1M and Fame will not crack $10M, with just $3.8M on Friday. Pandorum crash and burn with just $1.5M on Friday.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 22:27:57 +0000

the previews for SURROGATES, even the ads, were pretty terrible. I can't see it working at all. Laremy's got the top dog for sure, but CLOUDY may edge out SURROGATES for 2nd place if we have poor weather in some major markets.

I'll take:
FAME – $21M
CLOUDY – $17.5M
SURROGATES – $15.5M
PANDORUM – $7.5
THE INFORMANT! – $6.9M

By: Miley fan

Miley fan — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 22:07:49 +0000

There are rumors of director/actor infighting on Surrogates. Disney executives apparantly feel it shows on film. That's probably why advertising has been sparse; they think word of mouth won't be good. I wanted to see this film, but I might settle for renting it.
The posters for Fame are not good, but Youtubers are saying they want to see it.

By: The Check Spot

The Check Spot — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 16:31:33 +0000

1. Fame – $20M – It's PG, it's got music, the tweens' parents will remember the original. It has the pieces to break out. And it also has the pieces to fail horribly. I'm going breakout hit on this one.

2. Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs – $19.2M Don't see this one dropping too much. It's still the kiddie film to see. Also, no thematic material involving teen drinking, unlike that other PG rated (see above) film this weekend.

3. Surrogates – $13.6M When was the last time Bruce Willis had a hit that didn't involve the words Die and Hard. I'm curious, don't feel like looking it up.

4. Pandorum – $6.6M Cause there's nothing else out there.

5. The Informant! – $5.9M I love that you have to put the ! in the title.

6. Love Happens – $5.4M
7. Tyler Perry's We Need a Shorter Name – $5M
8. Jennifer's Body – $3.1M
9. 9 – $3M
10. Inglourious Basterds – $2.5M

By: Nick

Nick — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 06:28:18 +0000

1. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs – $19.7 million
2. Surrogates – $18.9 million
3. Fame – $18.8 million
4. Pandorum – $7.6 million
5. The Informant! – $6.3 million
6. Tyler Perry's Piece Of Shit – $5.2 million
7. Love Happens – $4.8 million
8. 9 – $3.3 million
9. Jennifer's Body – $3.0 million
10. Inglourious Basterds – $2.4 million

By: Eli

Eli — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 06:03:49 +0000

No guts, no glory on this one. Taking Surrogates with $22m. I know Bruce Willis' latest track record hasn't been spectacular but an audience knows you can't go wrong with him starring in an action movie. The trailer was solid, I've seen TV commercials for it weeks before, lots of people I know are buzzing about it, and just about everyone's already seen District 9 or Inglourious Basterds – I think it's gonna bring in the casual filmgoers who've been out of the cinemas since late August.

And Fame looks egregious. Sure it's a remake but lots of remakes manage to shake away such blatant clichés (okay, only judging the ads, but I'd take Step Up to this – that's really saying something).

1.) Surrogates – $22m
2.) Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs – $18.5m
3.) Fame – $14.4m
4.) Pandorum – $6.8m
5.) The Informant! = $6.1m

By: JM

JM — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 04:57:07 +0000

1) Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs–$19.9mil. I feel this one will have a nice hold. The only new release that threatens it is "Fame," and that has been getting very bad reviews, so the WOM might be similarly bad. This leaves "Cloudy," which has been getting great reviews, a chance to keep its box office crown for another weekend.

2) Surrogates–$16.7mil. It's basically this year's "Eagle Eye" in terms of genre and release time frame, only not as likely to make as much money. It's not in the public's eye as much as the Shia LaBeouff vehicle was.

3) Fame–$14.3mil. I would have said $20mil or more, but apparently it's ghastly.

4) Pandorum–$7.5mil. I copy what you said, Laremy. This one has nothing to set itself apart from the other horror movies.

5) The Informant!–$6.2mil. A 40% drop, about. Seems reasonable for an adult picture.

By: Laremy

Laremy — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 04:50:42 +0000

@Jonh-PT: Gamer is a good call. You've given me a little more hope that Fame can pull it off (even though it's awful).

By: Vince

Vince — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 04:24:05 +0000

I don't think "Surrogates" will do all that well- it looks like random robot stuff with Bruce Willis sometimes (at least,that's what the commercials say to me). I see this going the route of other Bruno clunkers like "16 Blocks" or "Hostage"- $10mil opening, $25-30 million total.

Laremy, thank you. Finally someone agrees with me that "Fame" should at least open solidly, and very apt comparison to "Step Up" because that's what this film is more akin to (as opposed to the original film or something like "High School Musical"). Teenage girls haven't had much to see these past few weeks, this has a it more guy appeal than the average musical, I think it could open in the low $20 million range (or at least the high to mid teens).

By: John Debono

John Debono — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 03:31:17 +0000

@John Debono: Sorry I realize that I put December the first time instead of February. My mistake although I wish it was only postponed until december.

By: Steve

Steve — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 02:43:03 +0000

Just looking at how many showings of each movie in KC, Surrogates has to win the weekend. I will say $25M. No idea about Fame, guessing it was all over the many hours of "Dancing With the Stars" this week, so it might be in the $18-$20 range. And Pandorum, I have seen nothing anywhere on it, so even 6M might be too high.

By: Steve

Steve — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 02:29:09 +0000

Good weekend to get caught up on videos.

By: John Debono

John Debono — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 01:49:17 +0000

1. Surrogates:$22.4 million Bruce Willis in a bad wig+lame plot= Man I wish Shutter Island wasn't pushed until December.
2. CWACOM:$17.7 million good reviews plus lack of family entertainment= Solid 2nd week, big drop third week once Toy Story comes out in 3D
3. Fame:$16.4 million Once again where is Scorsese when you need him? Answer, Feb. 2010
4. The Informant:$6 million Decent WOM will help and with only a $22 million budget it'll be okay, not a mega hit but should break even once Worldwide and DVD dollars come in.
5.Pandorum:$5.2 million Best thing to come out of this string of horror bombs? Its nice to know that Drag Me To Hell (A good horror film) actually did well once everything is put in perspective.

By: m1

m1 — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 01:36:17 +0000

Fame? Really? I don't think so.

By: Patricia

Patricia — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 00:48:21 +0000

@Joel: I'm sure Brad is nearby listening in, but this is Laremy's thang.

By: Joel

Joel — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 00:25:26 +0000

I didn't like "Fame" at all last night, but I agree with you, Brad, it appeals to a wide audience. Just not me. At times I thought I was watching "High School Musical 6" or whatever number we're on now. As for "Pandorum" and "Surrogates," I'm seeing both tomorrow, so I'll comment on what I think will happen then.

I wish that "Capitalism: A Love Story" would have more potential with a wider audience; I loved it last Thursday.

By: Patricia

Patricia — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 23:47:33 +0000

I've been waiting for your predictions for this week. Kinda a dry hole, huh? Can't fault your reasoning about Fame's take but still think Cloudy might stand pretty firm. And I agree that Surrogates will start soft. But I will add that it will then drop off the face of the earth.

As for Jennifer Aniston, "Marley and Me" was a hit and "She's Not that into You" made good dollar too. I hate that kind of crap, but it has an audience. Your comments are proof of the old saying that you're only as good as your last job. How much longer she can continue to play the same part over and over again…well, this film says, not much longer.

By: Jonh-PT

Jonh-PT — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:42:00 +0000

3 possible winners. It makes dificult to predict correctly the top 5. Don´t forget, Gamer was a sci-fi action movie and fail at the box office. Could Sorrugates bomb to? 2 horror movies fail on the last 2 weekends. Could Panforum follow da same way? Can Fame make as much as Step Up 2 made two years ago? Lost of questions with no answer…

My prediction:

1- Sorrugates: $20.0M
2- Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs: $18.6M
3- Fame: $15.1M
4- Pandorum: $8.1M
5- The Informant: $6.3M