Box-Office Oracle: Sep. 25 – Sep. 27, 2009
COMMENTS
We've got Fame winning... but we're open to suggestions.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks in a Row
1. Fame
I don't think it's a good movie, but I do think it has the most broad based appeal. Step Up 2 The Streets opened at $7600 per theater. I only need this one to do $6000 to pull out the victory. That's half full theaters. Surely it can pull that off?
Estimate: $18.6 million
2. Surrogates
It's PG-13, that helps. And it's got Bruce Willis, that helps too. But where has the marketing been? I've seen a few commercials, but that's it. I just don't feel like the awareness is out there, at least not enough for it to take the crown over a teen movie.
Estimate: $17.7 million
I can't ding it more than 41.5 percent this weekend. No competition, not until next weekend when Toy Story and Toy Story 2 get the old 3-D re-release. Those are going to be big fun to predict.
Estimate: $17.6 million
4. Pandorum
Check out that drop-off. Three films within a million dollars of each other at the top… and then an eleven million dollar dip. Pandorum is rated R. Fool me once with Sorority Row. Fool me twice with Jennifer's Body.Guess what, Pandorum? I'm not getting fooled again!
Estimate: $6.3 million
I've only got two films falling more than 50 percent this weekend. The reason? They all started out with low dollar amounts to begin with. You can't bleed a stone.
Estimate: $5.8 million
The other interesting roll-out on the board is I Hope They Serve Beer in Hell. Evidently they are going with 115 theaters this weekend, 300 next weekend, and then finally 2000 theaters in three weeks. I only bring this up now because Tucker Max is sort of going the Tyler Perry method. Make your own film, secure your own distribution, hope the fans line up. Will it work? I wouldn't feel good placing a bet either way.
Estimate: $5.1 million
7. Love Happens
You've got to wonder about the calls Jennifer Aniston's agent is getting these days. "Is she available to judge the Eukanuba Dog Show? Heck yeah, absolutely! She'll be on the next plane!"
Estimate: $3.8 million
You know Michael Bay is secretly thrilled. But the problem with being considered a "sex symbol" is that it comes with a shelf life. It's a highly transitory profession. Megan's time is now up.
Estimate: $3.4 million
9. 9
Just to circle back, I read that the budget (pre-marketing) for Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs was $100m. Can that be right? And if the film has only cleared $34m aren't they going to need a big worldwide push?
9 has a much more reasonable budget of $30m. So the $25m they've grossed at least allows them to ponder a scenario where they make a profit.
Estimate: $3.1 million
10. All About Steve
Basterds could reach up and grab this spot, which of course I'm cheering for. When I think of the three million people who saw All About Steve I shudder for humanity. There are things you can't unsee.
Estimate: $2.0 million
I consider it a three-race at the top, so if you have a solid argument for Meatballs or Surrogates (like it's been six weeks since an actioner won) lemme have it. Any and all theories considered.
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3 possible winners. It makes dificult to predict correctly the top 5. Don´t forget, Gamer was a sci-fi action movie and fail at the box office. Could Sorrugates bomb to? 2 horror movies fail on the last 2 weekends. Could Panforum follow da same way? Can Fame make as much as Step Up 2 made two years ago? Lost of questions with no answer…
My prediction:
1- Sorrugates: $20.0M
2- Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs: $18.6M
3- Fame: $15.1M
4- Pandorum: $8.1M
5- The Informant: $6.3M
I've been waiting for your predictions for this week. Kinda a dry hole, huh? Can't fault your reasoning about Fame's take but still think Cloudy might stand pretty firm. And I agree that Surrogates will start soft. But I will add that it will then drop off the face of the earth.
As for Jennifer Aniston, "Marley and Me" was a hit and "She's Not that into You" made good dollar too. I hate that kind of crap, but it has an audience. Your comments are proof of the old saying that you're only as good as your last job. How much longer she can continue to play the same part over and over again…well, this film says, not much longer.
I didn't like "Fame" at all last night, but I agree with you, Brad, it appeals to a wide audience. Just not me. At times I thought I was watching "High School Musical 6" or whatever number we're on now. As for "Pandorum" and "Surrogates," I'm seeing both tomorrow, so I'll comment on what I think will happen then.
I wish that "Capitalism: A Love Story" would have more potential with a wider audience; I loved it last Thursday.
@Joel: I'm sure Brad is nearby listening in, but this is Laremy's thang.
Fame? Really? I don't think so.
1. Surrogates:$22.4 million Bruce Willis in a bad wig+lame plot= Man I wish Shutter Island wasn't pushed until December.
2. CWACOM:$17.7 million good reviews plus lack of family entertainment= Solid 2nd week, big drop third week once Toy Story comes out in 3D
3. Fame:$16.4 million Once again where is Scorsese when you need him? Answer, Feb. 2010
4. The Informant:$6 million Decent WOM will help and with only a $22 million budget it'll be okay, not a mega hit but should break even once Worldwide and DVD dollars come in.
5.Pandorum:$5.2 million Best thing to come out of this string of horror bombs? Its nice to know that Drag Me To Hell (A good horror film) actually did well once everything is put in perspective.
Good weekend to get caught up on videos.
Just looking at how many showings of each movie in KC, Surrogates has to win the weekend. I will say $25M. No idea about Fame, guessing it was all over the many hours of "Dancing With the Stars" this week, so it might be in the $18-$20 range. And Pandorum, I have seen nothing anywhere on it, so even 6M might be too high.
@John Debono: Sorry I realize that I put December the first time instead of February. My mistake although I wish it was only postponed until december.
I don't think "Surrogates" will do all that well- it looks like random robot stuff with Bruce Willis sometimes (at least,that's what the commercials say to me). I see this going the route of other Bruno clunkers like "16 Blocks" or "Hostage"- $10mil opening, $25-30 million total.
Laremy, thank you. Finally someone agrees with me that "Fame" should at least open solidly, and very apt comparison to "Step Up" because that's what this film is more akin to (as opposed to the original film or something like "High School Musical"). Teenage girls haven't had much to see these past few weeks, this has a it more guy appeal than the average musical, I think it could open in the low $20 million range (or at least the high to mid teens).
@Jonh-PT: Gamer is a good call. You've given me a little more hope that Fame can pull it off (even though it's awful).
1) Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs–$19.9mil. I feel this one will have a nice hold. The only new release that threatens it is "Fame," and that has been getting very bad reviews, so the WOM might be similarly bad. This leaves "Cloudy," which has been getting great reviews, a chance to keep its box office crown for another weekend.
2) Surrogates–$16.7mil. It's basically this year's "Eagle Eye" in terms of genre and release time frame, only not as likely to make as much money. It's not in the public's eye as much as the Shia LaBeouff vehicle was.
3) Fame–$14.3mil. I would have said $20mil or more, but apparently it's ghastly.
4) Pandorum–$7.5mil. I copy what you said, Laremy. This one has nothing to set itself apart from the other horror movies.
5) The Informant!–$6.2mil. A 40% drop, about. Seems reasonable for an adult picture.
No guts, no glory on this one. Taking Surrogates with $22m. I know Bruce Willis' latest track record hasn't been spectacular but an audience knows you can't go wrong with him starring in an action movie. The trailer was solid, I've seen TV commercials for it weeks before, lots of people I know are buzzing about it, and just about everyone's already seen District 9 or Inglourious Basterds – I think it's gonna bring in the casual filmgoers who've been out of the cinemas since late August.
And Fame looks egregious. Sure it's a remake but lots of remakes manage to shake away such blatant clichés (okay, only judging the ads, but I'd take Step Up to this – that's really saying something).
1.) Surrogates – $22m
2.) Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs – $18.5m
3.) Fame – $14.4m
4.) Pandorum – $6.8m
5.) The Informant! = $6.1m
1. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs – $19.7 million
2. Surrogates – $18.9 million
3. Fame – $18.8 million
4. Pandorum – $7.6 million
5. The Informant! – $6.3 million
6. Tyler Perry's Piece Of Shit – $5.2 million
7. Love Happens – $4.8 million
8. 9 – $3.3 million
9. Jennifer's Body – $3.0 million
10. Inglourious Basterds – $2.4 million
1. Fame – $20M – It's PG, it's got music, the tweens' parents will remember the original. It has the pieces to break out. And it also has the pieces to fail horribly. I'm going breakout hit on this one.
2. Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs – $19.2M Don't see this one dropping too much. It's still the kiddie film to see. Also, no thematic material involving teen drinking, unlike that other PG rated (see above) film this weekend.
3. Surrogates – $13.6M When was the last time Bruce Willis had a hit that didn't involve the words Die and Hard. I'm curious, don't feel like looking it up.
4. Pandorum – $6.6M Cause there's nothing else out there.
5. The Informant! – $5.9M I love that you have to put the ! in the title.
6. Love Happens – $5.4M
7. Tyler Perry's We Need a Shorter Name – $5M
8. Jennifer's Body – $3.1M
9. 9 – $3M
10. Inglourious Basterds – $2.5M
There are rumors of director/actor infighting on Surrogates. Disney executives apparantly feel it shows on film. That's probably why advertising has been sparse; they think word of mouth won't be good. I wanted to see this film, but I might settle for renting it.
The posters for Fame are not good, but Youtubers are saying they want to see it.
the previews for SURROGATES, even the ads, were pretty terrible. I can't see it working at all. Laremy's got the top dog for sure, but CLOUDY may edge out SURROGATES for 2nd place if we have poor weather in some major markets.
I'll take:
FAME – $21M
CLOUDY – $17.5M
SURROGATES – $15.5M
PANDORUM – $7.5
THE INFORMANT! – $6.9M
Early Steve Manson Friday results:
Cloudy wins again with $5.5M, Sorrugates opens with $5.1M and Fame will not crack $10M, with just $3.8M on Friday. Pandorum crash and burn with just $1.5M on Friday.