Box-Office Oracle: Sep. 24 – Sep. 26, 2010
It's Owls over Oliver at the box office this weekend!
If these numbers hold it will be the biggest September weekend ever, which is concerning for a predictor. But I've gone over them a few times, and I think the new releases show much in the way of promise, so I suppose all that's left is to break this puppy down and let the chips fall where they may!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks In A Row
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| Parents largely avoided Alpha and Omega which means they'll be drawn in by this gorgeous looking 3-D effort at that 18 percent premium price. Plus, the precedent is there for this sort of number. Legend of the Guardians has nearly 3,600 theaters; Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs cleared $1,000 more per theater from a similar spot in September last year. How to Train Your Dragon did 20 percent more than this number per theater, and that film proved timing is everything in the animation game. Plus, it's Zack Snyder, which means all of those people who praised Watchmen for no good reason have to come out and support him. Okay, I'm just joshing on that last point. But $8700 per theater looks eminently doable to me. Prediction: $31.159 million |
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This film is where I see some potential give. I liked the film, as did Brad, but it would have been far better off coming out in the summer. As the leaves change color people don't want to watch a film about the economy collapsing, especially now that it's been two years since the trouble really started. I think this one could be in a freefall marketing-wise.
Prediction: $19.114 million
A 40 percent drop. Not as solid as The Departed's holdover, but then again the film isn't nearly as good.
Prediction: $14.405 million
I have no idea why anyone would subject themselves to this. But one out of every 150 Americans will most likely try it on for size.
Prediction: $14.085 million
This film really hurt The Other Guys last weekend.
Prediction: $10.107 million
The dips should return to normal levels for Resident Evil: Afterlife from here on out.
Prediction: $5.301 million
The biggest drop of the weekend. Fitting for an elevator movie, no?
Prediction: $5.263 million
The good news is it didn't make enough to suffer from any frontloading this weekend. I suppose that's the bad news too.
Prediction: $4.106 million
They have the full court press going on the PR side. But no one is in the film and the "wide" release is 650 theaters. Not enough!
Prediction: $2.048 million
Will Inception fall out of the top ten? It's only going to take about 100k people either way to decide.
Prediction: $1.556 million
How say you? Bullish on the owls? Bearish on Oliver Stone? Give us your prognostications in the comment section, call Brad Saran Wrap because he'll be here on Sunday to wrap you up.
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1. Legends of the Guardian – $33.5M I'm going the kids are starving route. Plus it looks beautiful. And it looks like one of those movies where you wouldn't mind spending the extra money for 3-D. (The opposite of Alpha and Omega)
2. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps – $26.6M People are excited about this one. It's subject matter probably keeps it from being a megahit, but it will do some business.
3. The Town – $14M A solid movie and I'm seeing a decent though not great hold.
4. Easy A – $11.4M May benefit from good word of mouth.
5. You Again – $10M I was high on this film doing solid business, but Fandango has reported it's not selling too many tickets, and the previews have gotten progressively worse. (The Glee promo made me wish death upon all involved, even Sigourney Weaver. Never make me do that.)
1. Legends of The Guardians- $32.2 million
2. Wall Street 2- $17.4 million
3. The Town- $16.3 million
4. Eazy A- $10.6 million
5. You Again- $8.2 million
1.) Legend of the Guardians – $ 36.5 mil
2.) Wall Street 2 – $ 27.2 mil
3.) The Town – $ 12 mil
4.) You Again – $ 10.5 mil
5.) Easy A – $ 9.4 mil
I predict You Again will do better than people think. And then we will get 2000 more articles shocked that woman go to the movies.
Betty White is on "Community" tonight, so expect many ads for the movie of NBC tonight.
1. Legend of the Guardians – $33.5 million. Kids need a good movie and that Harry Potter trailer might help.
2. Wall Street – $27.5 million. Last week I would've said around $20 million, but I think interest might be spiked now that the recession is "over".
3. The Town – $15.9 million. A little over 30% dip. This was a damn good film.
4. You Again – $14 million. I think you hit the nail on the head, Laremy.
5. Easy A – $10 million. A 40% slide to fifth, unless word of mouth keeps the young'uns in the seats.
Next week: I'm taking The Social Network with $35 million. This was a fantastic film and both young and old will be curious about it. Well worth the price of admission and the ensuing discussion.
1. Wall Street 2- $28.4 million
This one has has been given a very nice marketing campaign by Fox and is actually a pretty entertaining movie. If there's still a little bit of that 80s nostalgia lingering around from the summer, this should have a very healthy opening, and could have decent legs afterwards.
2. Legend of the Guardians- $26.2 million
Looks okay, but there is very little buzz surrounding this one. The book series the movie is adapted from is not very popular, and the movie is coming out a good five or six years after the series ended anyways. But I suppose kids need something to see, and this'll probably be it.
3. The Town- $14.4 million
Could take a bit of a hit from Wall Street 2, but should still have a respectable drop.
4. Easy A- $10.2 million
I've heard its good, and if You Again fails to make a dent on the weekend, it should also have a very nice second-weekend drop-off.
5. You Again- $8.2 million
I think it actually looks kind of funny, but everyone I talk to says it looks awful. Anyways, I predict 99% of the 'why did you see this movie?' answers on the cinemascore questionnaire will be checked under Betty White.
I suck at this obviously but I did want in on the discussion. I do think The Legend of the such and such, is gonna do well even though it's tracking numbers kinda suck. It looks like a movie worth the 3D treatment and I'm guessing parents will be more interested in taking the kids to this one.
As for Wall Street, I'm thinking around 20 million or so. It's definitely got an older audience in the bag but they don't turn out on opening weekend the way younger movie goers do. So it'll have legs but not a huge debut.
1. Legend of the Guardians, $31.1 million. I like Laremy's $8,700 PTA call here and can't think of anything better so I'll just go with that.
2. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, $28.8 million. This could swing a lot either way. I've been looking forward to it since Brad's review out of Cannes, but now it's getting mixed reviews overall. If nothing else it should be really nice to look at.
3. You Again, $15.2 million. I'm giving this a little less PTA than Bride Wars.
4. The Town, $14.2 million. A 40% drop, which is solid. I really dug this film and will probably see it in theatres again.
5. Easy A, $9.7 million. Might see this this weekend along with Wall St.
6. Alpha and Omega, $4.5 million. Guardians should mutilate this, but as Laremy said it started low to begin with. So I give it a 50% drop; steep for a kids film but not a horrific plunge.
7. Devil, $4.2 million. 65% drop.
8. Resident Evil: Afterlife, $4 million. Another 60% drop.
9. Takers, $1.6 million.
10. Inception, $1.3 million. For the record I've got The American also hitting this number but I'm giving the spot to Inception, mainly because 11 weeks in the top ten would be a hell of a feat. It would also be more than The Dark Knight managed. I've also got The Virginity Hit only hitting $1 million. If I underestimate it, it sneaks in and Inception is done. Though its drops are so small I could conceivably see it sneaking back in over the next couple weekends even if it does fall out this weekend.
1. Wall Street 2 – 27.4M
2. Legend of the Guardians – 25.1M
3. The Town – 15.0M
4. You Again – 13.4M
5. Easy A – 9.5M
1. Wall Street 2 – 25.2 million
2. The Town – 18.4 milliion
3. Easy A – 14.2 million
4. Owl Movie – 12.2 million
5. You Again – 9.3 million
1. Legend of the Guardians, $32.7 million. I agree with the lot of you and admit that the kids need a good movie to see during the fall. It doesn't look terrible, i'm sure it'll look fantastic in 3D, and hey…if it gives a little profit to Zack Synder, i'm all for it. If this can do well, then maybe he can pad himself just in case "Sucker Punch" decides to bomb.
2. Wall Street: MNS, $27.3 million. This could go higher or lower, it's all depending on whether or not they want to see a movie with the plot material like this. But the promotional ads have been strong, and in his time of need, people want to support Douglas whichever way possible. We'll see.
3. You Again, $17.8 million. This is just one of those movies that you think is going to bomb, but it actually makes a decent number. Whatever. Still want my freakin' Veronica Mars movie, or another decent Kristen Bell movie that isn't a rom-com.
4. The Town, $14 million. It keeps a steady hold, but not as well as The Departed did.
5. Easy A, $10.2 million. Thanks to "You Again", this drops a tiny bit more than expected.
I agree with Athar. How is a highly suspect (crappy) Kristen Bell movie in September supposed to beat a highly suspect (crappy) Kristen Bell movie in January? Ten or eleven million sounds right so split the difference for a $10.5 million weekend for You Again. And I think I'm being generous.
1. Wall Street: MNS $24.6 million; I wanted to like it but it ended up being a repeat of the first one and the ending kind of threw me off from the whole feel of the film. But, I do think that this will be number 1 this weekend just because of the subject matter.
2. The Town $18.4 million; The word of mouth is spreading on this title. I loved it and so did a lot of other people that I've talked to. I think that is going to help this with a minimal drop.
3. Owl Movie $15.2 million; I have not seen one piece of advertising for this film and judging from the reviews, I probably won't either. But because this is a kids film, I'll put it in the top five. But I have my doubts.
4. Easy A $10 million; This looks like the right place for this film. The drop seems appropriate enough as well.
5. You Again $9.3 million; Yet again, I've seen nothing on this title promotional-wise and I don't really plan on seeing any for it anytime soon.