Box-Office Oracle: Sep. 17 – Sep. 19, 2010
COMMENTS
The Town should dominate and take the top spot!
The third weekend of September 2010 should match up nicely with the same weekend in September of 2009. Both weekends had a top twelve under $90m, both had four wide releases which signaled Hollywood was awake again. Let's break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
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| I liked it better than Brad, but it will probably come down to your relationship with Heat. If you've never seen that one you'll be relatively happy, otherwise it will come off a little worse by comparison. Still, that's not a dealbreaker for me. Ben Affleck clearly has a directorial eye, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pivot towards more directing jobs in the future. Financially, I see about $8,000 per screen, more than enough to win the weekend against more niche genre offerings. Prediction: $21.6 million | |
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2. Easy A
This is a wildcard. Will the teens show up to support Emma Stone's coming out party? It should end up with the most theaters of the new releases (just so you know I'm posting this early without final theater totals so Brad can post from Toronto before his flight), and that 90 minute running time is friendly, but I'm not sure it's low concept enough to really bank.
Prediction: $15.69 million
3. Devil
It could do just about any number. On the plus side people love the suspense genre. But M. Night Shyamalan's limited involvement could scare people away.
Prediction: $13.61 million
It's not getting enough theaters to make a charge, and parents may hold off until next weekend's Legend of the Guardians.
Prediction: $12.9 million
A 62 percent dip, fairly typical for the franchise.
Prediction: $10.12 million
6. Takers
And then there is everything else. We'll buzz through these because they will all make about the same paltry amount.
Prediction: $2.83 million
7. The American
At least it caused conversation, and the $20m production budget leaves them in a decent financial position.
Prediction: $2.72 million
The missed September comedy of 2010, a la Ghost Town back in 2008.
Prediction: $2.27 million
9. Machete
Another film that was made on the cheap which should deliver on DVD and residual sales.
Prediction: $2 million
How say you? Bold enough to call The Town in the teens or above $30m? See a different winner? Which film are you the most interested to see? Comment early, comment often!
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1. The Town
2. Devil
3. Easy A
4. Alpha and Omega
5. Resident Evil: Afterlife
By all means I hope it does but I can't seem to see 'The Town' doing that greatly, but saying that it's not the strongest of weekends, so should be intersting. Affleck also is getting the praise he should be getting as a director.
1. Devil 30 million
2. The Town 18 million
3. Resident Evil 15
4. Easy A 12 million
5. Alpha Omega 10 million
6. Takers 3 million
7. The American 2 million
8. Going the Distance 2 million
9. The Other Guys 1.5 million
10.Inception 1 million
Hmm…
Easy A – 22.3
The Town – 21.0
Resident Evil – 10.6
Devil – 9.7
Alpha and Omega – 6.0
1. The Town – $20.2M This one is going to be a close race for the top. The ads for this have been pretty strong, smartly comparing it with The Departed. It's got the most star power going for it. And adults seem to be going to the movies. Fandango is reporting it having a pretty strong early ticket sales as of now.
2. Easy A – $19.6M I believe this one is getting the most theaters. Also, it's got a charm to it that will get teenagers into the seats, though that is always a difficult call. It will be a close call.
3. Devil – $14.4M When I saw the trailer, I thought 30M opening weekend, until the M. Night card came up and the theater actually booed. Now, not so much. I think the next in the trilogy may want to downplay the M. Night connection. I think that's why they got rid of the name The Night Chronicles.
4. Resident Evil: Afterlife – $10.6M Big drop. No surprise.
5. Alpha and Omega – $8.2M Not a lot of buzz and it looks just god awful. But kids movies are always hard to predict.
Laremy, one of the nice things about being on this end is that I don't have to comment on 6 – 10, so I'm not going to. I do feel for you though.
Finally! Alice in Dreamland…er, Inception will be out of the top ten!
The Town has done very well critically. I also came up with a theory earlier that people may want to rid themselves of the dirty taste of 'Takers', so 'The Town' should do well. I will probably save it for DVD, but I hope it becomes a major awards contender.
I think it'll be closer than that, and the top three will each get at least $20 M
1. Easy A – $24 Million
2. The Town – $22 Million
3. Devil – $20 Million
4. Resident Evil – $11 Million
5. Alpha and Omega – $7 Million (i literally don't even know what this movie is)
the rest, <$3 Million
6. Takers
7. Machete
8. The American
9. Going the Distance
10. Inception
Easy A – 22.7M
Devil – 18.4M
The Town – 17.6M
Resident Evil Afterlife – 9.9M
Alpha and Omega – 7.0M
devil- 18
town -15
resident -12
easy a -10
Are you kidding? If Shyamalan wasn't involved i would've watched Devil
1.) Easy A- 25 mil
2.) Devil- 18 mil
3.) The Town- 15 mil
4.) Alpha & Omega- 8 mil
1.) Easy A – $20M
2.) Devil- $18M
3.) The Town- $15M
4.) Alpha & Omega- $7M
The Town- $24.5 million
Easy A- $18.9 million
Devil- $9.7 million
Alpha & Omega- $6.9 million
awwww no inception :(
Good! I can finally stop blabbing about how overrated it is.
I'm seeing both Devil and The Town this weekend although overall I'm anticipating The Town way more. I'm really looking forward to seeing it and you are right about Affleck. Not a great actor but what could be in the future a great director. I myself loved his debut and am really anxious to see how The Town turns out.
I agree that both Easy A and Devil are somewhat unpredictable. Easy A has good buzz, but will that really translate into dollars as teens are distracted by school starting up? Devil has some M. Night negative buzz, but might people see it anyway when it opens? There may be a disparity between what people are saying/feeling and what they will do, or they might be serious about what they are saying. That is the uncertainty. I have already decided to pick The Town for the win, though.