Box-Office Oracle: Sep. 10 – Sep. 12, 2010
Resident Evil: Afterlife will win. But by how much?
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| The last two have opened around $23m. But something seems off this time around. I don't know if its the lack of screenings, the lack of buzz, or overall fatigue with the series but it seems to me that this one will be down about ten percent. Which really means it will be down more than that once you add the 18 percent 3-D premium in. Personally, I'm a Jovovich supporter. She was solid in The Fifth Element. But I don't see myself shelling out $15 for a Resident Evil movie experience, even if it was shot in 3-D. I'm also thinking the NFL will hurt it. The season was already two weekends old when the sequel came out, opening weekend hold a special appeal to a certain demographic that could hurt it on Sunday. That's my working theory at least. Speaking of, I love the 49ers minus three points. That's a gift. Prediction: $21.46 million | |
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How say you? Have I sandbagged too much? Do you like another single digit victor? Comment now, before my game kicks off.
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Resident Evil: Afterlife has gotten little buzz because people stopped caring about the series. I haven't seen any of them, but I know people who have said that each one is equally bad. I admit that the 3D in the trailer was impressive, but I wouldn't consider seeing it. Gotta give it to Inception for staying in the top 10 for two months straight now.
These movies can be pretty terrible, especially if you're not like me and you cut them some slack for being a video game adaptation.
This one looks equally bad (or "as good as the other films") but I'll still see it. I think that Laremy's prediction is on the money. It shouldn't break out with more than a mid-$20 million opening, but if people are dying to see a movie, it just might.
Are you referring to Javier Bardem? Or James Franco? I'd say they both have a shot.
Franco for "127 hours"!!
1. Resident Evil: Afterlife, $25.6 million. I had been thinking bigger on this one with the 3D, but Laremy has talked me down a bit. This is an $8,000 PTA; the last one did $8,300 without 3D but also later in September.
2. The American, $6.5 million. 50% off. I really liked it and thought it was quite intense. I'm not sure how it would hold up to repeated viewings though, as that intensity would be severely reduced.
3. Takers, $5.9 million. Why is this holding so well? Surely not because it's good, because the reviews are terrible.
4. Machete, $5.1 million. 55% off. I loved this but thought it almost had too much of a plot for the type of film it is.
5. The Expendables, $3.6 million. Back to normal drops after the typically great Labor Day holds.
6. Inception, $3.5 million. Maybe it can manage one more weekend in the top ten after this one. If so it would match The Dark Knight's ten weeks, which would be quite a feat.
7. Going the Distance, $3.4 million. 50% off.
8. The Last Exorcism, $3.3 million.
9. The Other Guys, $3.1 million.
10. Eat Pray Love, $2.8 million.
Probably no movies for me this weekend. The next couple will hopefully be good though, with The Town and Wall Street opening.
San Francisco 9-7 (last year 8-8) A winning season!
Resident Evil $19.8 The 3D complicates things. This can't be right but I'm going to punt on this one and predict about the same falloff percentage as StepUp 3D.
Lose 31-6 to Seattle? U-G-L-Y!
Did anyone notice that major theater change for 'Flipped'?
Resident Evil 3D – 28.2M
Just a side note. You know what is impressive? Step Up 3D's worldwide numbers. Wow.
Probably, a Step Up 4ever is already in the works. That numbers are insane. It will be the biggest of the franchise in WW total.
I'm wondering when the next weekend will be that I actually find myself interested in what will be top dog.
The pickings so far the last few weeks just are not worth the effort!
Whatever wins – Hooray for it!
resident evil afterlife will win at box office like 800 million
1. Resident Evil: Afterlife – $25.6M. (I have always enjoyed these movies eventhough they do no justice to the games. There fun mindless action flicks, but i wouldn't be suprised if this latest one experianced some franchise fatigue since the last one didn't exactly impress anyone).
Resident Evil: Afterlife – $25.6M.
I have always enjoyed these movies eventhough they do no justice to the games. There fun mindless action flicks, but i wouldn't be suprised if this latest one experianced some franchise fatigue since the last one didn't exactly impress anyone.
$10.9M for Friday for "Evil". So spending the extra for shooting in 3D pays off. Plus picked a great weekend to release. I count seven heavily marketed movies out the next two weeks, I wonder why one of them did not take this weekend instead.
The word is that this weekend is often the slowest movie weekend of the year so studios are probably hesitant to put out any movie that might lose in a competition to RE4(3D). And since a movie's opening weekend is often it's destiny, why not start your movie on a busier weekend?
So it's a similar situation to the Halloween time period. The weekend before Halloween seems to be only able to support one good horror movie opening. If two are released than one of them is going to get burned regardless of overall horror merit. That was my conclusion last year after Saw verses Paranormal Activity. And that's why the new Saw movie blinked when the new Paranormal Activity movie scheduled it's movie for the same time slot the week before Halloween, and Lionsgate moved it's Saw opening to a less desirable time slot a week later.
There may also be an institutional political problem for the studios. Just as once the vast majority of businesses technology purchasers bought IBM PC's over it's significantly cheaper rivals simply so they couldn't be blamed for an expensive mistake, there may be pressure on individual careers not to release a movie on what the conventional wisdom says is the worst grossing weekend of the year. Losing out to competition next weekend is one thing, but bucking conventional wisdom and having your film fail is a possible recipe for corporate career stagntion or even suicide.