Box-Office Oracle: 'Scream 4' Laughs and Horror Over a Family Trip to 'Rio'
These could be the two biggest openings of the year!
This weekend holds the potential for mayhem, and I feel like Admiral Josh Painter in The Hunt for the Red October. "This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it." What am I talking about? Well, two films have the potential to open at $40m this weekend, a feat precisely zero movies have achieved so far this year. As such, it's the most competitive race we've seen for the top slot, let's break it down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 2 Weeks In A Row
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I went back and forth with this call all day. I just think the buzz is there for Scream 4, and that's partly based on the market for the rarely tapped "horror-comedy" genre. But it's anybody's ballgame,for instance Scream 4 is pulling down 24 percent of advance ticket sales (at Fandango) while Rio is right behind with 23 percent. But parents plan more, right? So that one percent differential actually represents a massive pent-up hunger for Scream 4. Or so I'm predicting. This number equals over $13k per theater, so the potential is certainly there for a flop. And Scream 4 is spotting Rio around 500 theaters, so it truly could go either way. But I'm taking Neve and the teen dollar over the family animation. Let it be written, let it be done. Prediction: $44.55 million |
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I'm still penning this review, but I found it to be about what you'd expect. I just can't bring myself to call for $10k per theater, though if it hits How to Train Your Dragon's $10,785 per theater that would equal nearly $41m. For me, it's about eight percent lesser of a marketing pull, though I should note it has already surpassed $50m internationally, a nice little starting nest egg.
Prediction: $36.1 million
On a production budget of $63m, Hop sits at $85m worldwide. If they can get to $150m or so theatrically they'll probably consider it a victory.
Prediction: $13.42 million
Last weekend's surprise silver medalist should face a light drop this weekend, largely because it's not trolling in a frontloaded demo.
Prediction: $9.51 million
It should face the second biggest drop of the weekend, just ahead of Your Highness.
Prediction: $7.58 million
The budget was less than $2m, and they will clear $35m this weekend. That's what we call "good".
Prediction: $7.5 million
It did fairly well to hit double digits last weekend, though I have no idea how they spent $18m on surfboards and waves.
Prediction: $6.89 million
It could use an international push, and I think it will get one, as it's not an overly domestic style of film.
Prediction: $5.62 million
The main problem was the lack of comedy. Sure, it had some laughs, but not really enough to break on through for a profit.
Prediction: $5.15 million
This spot could also very easily go to Limitless, but I know we all enjoy predicting new titles.
Prediction: $2.82 million
Here's your chance to shine. Scream 4 or Rio at the top, and by how much? Predictions away!
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I'm gonna go with a $13,500 PTA for Scream 4 and on the basis of around 3300 locations that makes $44.55 million in my book. I hope I'm allowed to get that in as a prediction.
I think Rio will be around the same but may edge to $50 million on the basis of seemingly good word of mouth (from the limited info I've had time to look at).
All in, this is going to be an interesting weekend!
1. Rio- $48.7 million
2. Scream 4- $39.3 million
3. Hop- $13.2 million
4. Hanna- $9.1 million
5. Soul Sufer- $6.9 million
1.) Rio – $ 52.5 million
2.) Scream 4 – $ 48 million
1.Rio 36 mil
2.Scream 4 29.1 mil
3. Hop 11 mil
4.Hanna 9.8 mil
5. Soul Surfer 8.5
I totally agree with you about Scream 4 reaching number one. I predict around 46.4 million. I'm seeing it Saturday night and really can't wait!
Rio – $44.6m – i think the families will win
Scream 4 -$40.5m
I'll wait to officially predict until I see some final theater counts…. but at the moment, I'll take Rio at the top for $51 million and Scream 4 just behind it with $44 million.
Usually family wins over brand.
Like Happy Feet vs Casino Royale.
But I don't know…
I'm feeling the hype for Scream 4. It's kind of huge.
A lot of my friends are talking about it. And I'm from Brazil! Shoudn't we only talk about Rio right now? =P
Globally Casino Royale trumped Happy Feet.
Still sticking with my 50 million for Scream and 30 million for Rio.
Rio – 39.2M
Scream 4 – 38.5M
Hop – 11.4M
Hanna – 7.3M
Arthur – 7.0M
—————————–
The Conspirator – 2.2M
Rio – 40M
Scream 4 – 38M
Where is everyone getting these high numbers from?
I'll say 32 for Scream
Rio – $44.7M
Scream 4 – $38.2M
is there anything else to talk about?
1. Scream 4- $49.4 million
2. Rio- $43.5 million
And as Check Spot already said, that's all anyone really cares about this weekend.
I feel the Hop holdover will hurt Rio just enough for Scram to take the win. Nobody seems to want to pay for 3d anymore.
No kidding, really high numbers this week.
1. Scream 4 – 46 million.
2. Rio – 38 million.
3. Hop – 11 million.
4. Hanna – 8 million.
5. Arthur – 7 million.
Photo finish $45M for both movies. Conspirator for 11th with $2.8M
scream 4-50 million
rio-45 million
I still don't think that Scre4m will make more than $40 million for the three-day. I have a hard time thinking it'll make significantly over $30 million.
Rio's promoted everywhere, it's well received (moreso than any other family film this year), it's got more theaters/showings than Scre4m, it's a family film & it has the 3D surcharge to boot. Not to mention, friggin' Angry Birds Rio is a brilliant marketing tactic for that movie, to the point where even I'm excited to watch it.
$44 million for Rio, let's go with $33 million for Scre4m and call it a day.
Also, will biggest bomb of the year go to Atlas Shrugged?
Normally I'd take the family dollar, but I feel like Hop making big dollars the last two weekends will dilute Rio enough for Scream to get the win. Probably no movies in theatres for me this weekend; I couldn't even make it through the Rio trailer and I probably won't bother with Scream, though it is tempting.
1. Scream 4, $43 million.
2. Rio, $38.3 million.
3. Hop, $10.6 million.
4. Hanna, $8 million.
5. Arthur, $5.5 million.
6. Soul Surfer, $6.3 million.
7. Source Code, $5.2 million.
8. Insidious, $3.7 million.
8. Your Highness, $3.7 million.
10. Limitless, $3.2 million.
Bonus: The Conspirator, $2.1 million.
1. Rio – 42.1
2. Scream 4 – 37.8
3. Rio – 13.2
4. Hanna – 9.4
5. Insidious – 9
I'm guessing "Soul Surfer" spent $18mil removing Anna Sophia-Robb's arm digitally.
1. Scream 4 – $49.38
2. Rio – $43.87
3. Hop – $11.50
4. Hanna – $9.03
5. Arthur – $5.37
Scream 4 – $42mil
Rio – $40mil
Conspirator -$1.6mil
There have just been so many kids movies already this year that I would have to go with scream as well. What is conspirator? I would say 130 million would be more like it for Hop.
Laremy you just made a big mistake: Rio has the advantage due to the 3D premiums, and family market.
If Scary Movie 4 was anything to go by Scream 4 will be frontloaded as Hell.
EW has Rio at $45M and Scream at $38M, so we will see who's better at this :)
Ouch. Early reports say that Rio won't hit $40m and Scream 4 will struggle to even make it to $20m. The 2011 box office continues to disappoint. With zero real breakouts so far this year, the summer blockbusters have to really be sweating now.
Wow, Scream 4 really underperformed. Maybe is one of those cases where the internet buzz is big, but the actual anticipation isn't. I was trying to convince some friends to watch it yesterday and nobody wanted to, I was surprised!