Box-Office Oracle: Looking for 'Real Steel' Robots to Cut Loose Over 'Footloose' and 'The Thing'

COMMENTS

Counting on a repeat at number one this week, but it's going to be close

By: Laremy Legel
Published: Thursday, October 13th 2011 at 11:53 AM

Real Steel got us back on track last weekend, but the newborn streak is in real danger (again). Dancing or robots, remakes or CGI, that's the call. Let's break it down!

Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 1 Week In A Row

Real Steel

There's not much precedent here as October is generally where horror opens strong. Children's dramas? Where can we turn for a comparable? Red? Erm, no. The Social Network? Not hardly. Meet the Parents? Nope. My elongated point is this: pulling a percentage bleed out of this outlier is no easy task.

Which is why I'm going bullish with a 33 percent dip. Family dollars, you bet against them at your peril. Sure, discriminating predictors out there could say, "Yeah, but just take a gander at High School Musical 3: Senior Year! That opened at $42m! Teen dollar 4life!" And they'd be right, in that one instance, for the third in a franchise, though you've used too many exclamation points for my liking.

Prediction: $18.35 million

2. Footloose

Footloose isn't a franchise, it's a remake. Box-office wise, it looks like a cross between 2009's Fame remake and Step Up 3-D's lack of star power to this guy. As such, I can only cede it $5k per theater. They've done some interesting things with the trailer, which I hope to get into during tomorrow's podcast. Tune in!

Prediction: $16.5 million

3. The Thing

If you wanted a random "out of nowhere" winner it would be The Thing. But the tracking doesn't support this call, and I don't sense any momentum for this prequel. Middling reviews won't help either.

Prediction: $12 million

4. The Big Year

Undeniably charming, but headed into the arena with 1,000 fewer theaters. It won't lose because of that, but it will lose all the same.

Prediction: $6.6 million

5. The Ides of March

The second biggest dip of the weekend at 40 percent. But that's not exactly terrible, is it?

Prediction: $6.4 million

6. Dolphin Tale

$51m on a budget of $37m. Not great, but not a loss yet either.

And now for my thoughts on the NBA lockout, because you asked so nicely: whenever I see a group of people argue this acrimoniously over future revenue I think ... none of us is as dumb as all of us. You have to hand it to everyone involved, they've worked hard to run their product into a brick wall. Bring on college basketball!

Prediction: $5.29 million

7. Moneyball

Aaron Sorkin was approached to do a Pixar film? Would it have been at all like "The West Wing", only with Sulley instead of Leo?

Prediction: $4.9 million

8. 50/50

This is ten times the film Real Steel is. I realize that doesn't matter financially, but someone needs to put it out there.

Prediction: $3.9 million

9. Courageous

They made it for $2m and they've made $17m. Where do I sign up to invest?

Prediction: $3.5 million

10. Dream House

Very quietly has proven to be an unmitigated disaster for Universal. Tip of the cap.

Prediction: $2.4 million

How say you? Cheeky enough to cut loose and take Footloose? Or do you want to get on board with my Jackman call? And don't forget The Thing and Big Year, that's where $1m either way will make you look clever. Predictions away!

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Related Links: Footloose Real Steel The Big Year The Thing

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