Box Office Predictions

Box-Office Oracle: Looking for 'Real Steel' Robots to Cut Loose Over 'Footloose' and 'The Thing'

Counting on a repeat at number one this week, but it's going to be close

Weekend Box-Office Predictions
Real Steel got us back on track last weekend, but the newborn streak is in real danger (again). Dancing or robots, remakes or CGI, that's the call. Let's break it down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 1 Week In A Row

Real Steel

There's not much precedent here as October is generally where horror opens strong. Children's dramas? Where can we turn for a comparable? Red? Erm, no. The Social Network? Not hardly. Meet the Parents? Nope. My elongated point is this: pulling a percentage bleed out of this outlier is no easy task.

Which is why I'm going bullish with a 33 percent dip. Family dollars, you bet against them at your peril. Sure, discriminating predictors out there could say, "Yeah, but just take a gander at High School Musical 3: Senior Year! That opened at $42m! Teen dollar 4life!" And they'd be right, in that one instance, for the third in a franchise, though you've used too many exclamation points for my liking.

Prediction: $18.35 million

Footloose isn't a franchise, it's a remake. Box-office wise, it looks like a cross between 2009's Fame remake and Step Up 3-D's lack of star power to this guy. As such, I can only cede it $5k per theater. They've done some interesting things with the trailer, which I hope to get into during tomorrow's podcast. Tune in!
Prediction: $16.5 million
If you wanted a random "out of nowhere" winner it would be The Thing. But the tracking doesn't support this call, and I don't sense any momentum for this prequel. Middling reviews won't help either.
Prediction: $12 million
Undeniably charming, but headed into the arena with 1,000 fewer theaters. It won't lose because of that, but it will lose all the same.
Prediction: $6.6 million
The second biggest dip of the weekend at 40 percent. But that's not exactly terrible, is it?
Prediction: $6.4 million
$51m on a budget of $37m. Not great, but not a loss yet either.

And now for my thoughts on the NBA lockout, because you asked so nicely: whenever I see a group of people argue this acrimoniously over future revenue I think ... none of us is as dumb as all of us. You have to hand it to everyone involved, they've worked hard to run their product into a brick wall. Bring on college basketball!

Prediction: $5.29 million
Aaron Sorkin was approached to do a Pixar film? Would it have been at all like "The West Wing", only with Sulley instead of Leo?
Prediction: $4.9 million
This is ten times the film Real Steel is. I realize that doesn't matter financially, but someone needs to put it out there.
Prediction: $3.9 million
They made it for $2m and they've made $17m. Where do I sign up to invest?
Prediction: $3.5 million
Very quietly has proven to be an unmitigated disaster for Universal. Tip of the cap.
Prediction: $2.4 million

How say you? Cheeky enough to cut loose and take Footloose? Or do you want to get on board with my Jackman call? And don't forget The Thing and Big Year, that's where $1m either way will make you look clever. Predictions away!

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  • Teuta

    Steve Martin, Jack Black, Owen Wilson, Brian Dennehy, Rashida Jones, Rosamund Pike, Dianne Wiest, Anjelica Huston, Jim Parsons, Anthony Anderson, Tim Blake Nelson, Kevin Pollak.
    From the cast alone, ‘The Big Year’ looks like it will make a billion dollars.

    It is unfortunate that ‘Chalet Girl’, ‘Father of Invention’, ‘Texas Killing Fields’ and ‘Trespass’ are only getting a limited release. They all have interesting casts (‘Chalet Girl’ – Ed Westwick, Felicity Jones, Tamsin Egerton, Sophia Bush, Brooke Shields, Bill Nighy) (‘Father of Invention’ - Kevin Spacey, Heather Graham, Johnny Knoxville, Virginia Madsen) (‘Texas Killing Fields’ - Sam Worthington, Jeffrey Dean Morgan, Jessica Chastain) (‘Trespass’ - Nicolas Cage, Nicole Kidman, Cam Gigandet). It would have been interesting to see how they would have done commercially if released nationwide and they deserve better than to go unnoticed by the public when they come out.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Kyle-Coley/753747229 Kyle Coley

    Its tough call this week, so here are my picks

    I got Footloose at 17.5M
    Real Steel at 16.3M
    The Thing at 11.5M
    The Big year at a solid 9M
    lastly The Ides of March at 7.7M

  • John PT

    Hard weekend to predict.

    Footloose - 15.9M
    Real Steel - 15.7M
    The Thing - 9.8M
    Ides of March - 6.5M
    The Big Year - 6.0M

  • Chuck Bartowski

    1. FOOTLOOSE - $21.4 million
    2. REAL STEEL - $18.9 million
    3. THE THING - $14.5 million
    4. BIG YEAR - $12.0 million
    5. IDES OF MARCH - $6.2 million

  • SquareMaster316

    Footloose: $16.5 Mill
    Real Steel: $12.6 Mill
    The Thing: $13.5 Mill
    Big Year: $7 Mill
    Ides of March: 5.6 Mill

  • Curtis20

    Footloose is number 1 on fandango tickets sales. It will be number 1.

  • Ian

    I'm really not sure why The Thing is tracking so low. Predators hit $9,000 PTA last summer; surely The Thing should be able to at least get close to that as a horror film in October. I'm gonna go with the tracking, though I'm still way higher than everyone else.

    Footloose, $19.8 million.
    The Thing, $18 million.
    Real Steel, $16.4 million.
    The Ides of March, $7.3 million.
    The Big Year, $6.4 million.
    Dolphin Tale, $6 million.
    Moneyball, $4.4 million.
    50 / 50 , $3.6 million.
    Courageous, $2.5 million.
    The Lion King, $2.2 million.

    A bunch of rewatches for me this weekend since I've got three free tickets to burn and they're not good on new movies. Planning on seeing 50 / 50, Moneyball, and Drive again.

  • Stiggy

    Real Steel will hold off Footlose but will lose the crown to Johnny English Reborn.

    Johnny English Reborn already hit £4.9 million in the UK on OW. Based on the "10% rule" the UK believes in, that would foreshadow a US opening of around $49 million, almost enough to topple Jackass 3D as the October Box Office King.

    • John PT

      Rowan Atkinson is not popular is America.

      It will be lucky to do 5M on OW.

      • Ferdi

        That and Johnny English Reborn is set to open in 1,500+ theatres which is pretty low and it has direct competition from Paranormal Activity 3 and The Three Musketeers. So.... it might outgross the original but it won't get much far from there.

        • Stiggy

          In that case Three Musketeers will win due to the family dollar.

          Para-snore-mal Activity 3 will underperform big time. People are getting sick of these cash grab horror sequels that roll around every October.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Arthur-Carlson/741159393 Arthur Carlson

    1. Footloose - $24.1M I'm going big with this one, or I'm going home. It's looking pretty good on Fandango right now.

    2. Real Steel - $16.6M

    3. The Thing - $10.2M I love the 1982 version, but this one looks too CGI-y and doesn't have the same fan base that the current remakes like Texas Chainsaw and Friday the 13th.

    4. The Ides of March - $7M

    5. The Big Year - $6.7M

  • John Debono

    1. Footloose- $18.9 million
    2. Real Steal- $15.7 million
    3. The Thing-$12.4 million
    4. The Ides Of March- $7.1 million
    5. The Big Year- $5.8 million

  • http://moviekid-zach.blogspot.com Film Wizard

    It's a tough week to call, but it may be Footloose on top. I enjoyed the movie, maybe a bit too much. I also enjoyed Tower Heist, which I went to a screening of last night! Brad, you will laugh, especially if you laughed in Change Up.

  • Bustray

    1. Real Steel- $16.8 million
    2. Footloose- $15.5 million
    3. The Thing- $7.7 million
    4. The Ides of March- $7.1 million
    5. The Big Year- $6.7 million

  • Dennis

    The Thing 18mil
    Reel Steel 17.6mil
    Footloose 14mil
    Big Year 5.6 mil

  • Beat

    footloose has an 72% fresh rating on RT. It has a huge 3,550 theater and it's number 1 on fandango advance sales. It will top the Boxoffice. The Thing will be lucky to do fright night numbers.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Chris-Etrata/100001304662602 Chris Etrata

    Footloose: 40 million
    The Thing: 15.3 million
    Big Year: 3.5 million.