Box-Office Oracle: Predicting Another Weekend at #1 for 'Transformers: Dark of the Moon'
Can Horrible Bosses and Zookeeper challenge Bay's robots this weekend?
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| The production budget is $195m. For some reason that feels a bit low to me, the same way that a Snuggie for only $19.95 feels like too solid of a deal. Still, let's take them at their word and note this one will easily pass half a billion this weekend. As such, profit isn't an issue. It's going to happen. However, when you dive into the legacy of Transformers, the first one ended up around $710m, the second bested the original with $836m (with a largish $400m coming domestically). Dark of the Moon just cleared $200m domestically, which means $400m isn't terribly likely. And that means $800m is also in jeopardy, unless the international markets pull even more weight this time around. So what happened? The economy? Sequel fatigue? 3-D fatigue? Your theory is as good as mine, because by almost any metric (RT, IMDB, me and BB) the third film was better than the second. Prediction: $45.013 million | |
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How say you? Want to make a cheeky $30m+ call on Horrible Bosses? Am I too low on the family dollar? Predictions away!
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I think the people who wanted to see Transformers already have. Horrible Bosses is gonna be the second break out comedy of the summer(Bridesmaids, the first of course).
1. Horrible Bosses – 37.4 M
2. Transformers 3 – 36.9 M
3. Zookeeper – 17.5 M
4. Cars 2 – 13.2 M
5. Larry Crowne – 6.2 M
6. Bad Teacher – 5.8 M
7. Super 8 – 5.2 M
8. Midnight in Paris – 3.3 M
9. Monte Carlo – 2.1 M
10. Mr. Popper's Penguins – 2.0 M
I don't know if "Horrible Bosses" has the breakout potential you predict, but I was pleasantly surprised to see that it's getting largely positive reviews. It's nice to finally see a trailer that made me laugh actually come from a movie that delivers the goods. Bridesmaids had horribly unfunny trailers but resulted in a good film… who know what a funny trailer/good film combo will bring?
On the other hand, with Bridesmaids, The Hangover 2, and Bad Teacher already out, perhaps the demand for this kind of humor isn't as stoked as it could be.
1. Transformers 3- $40.1 million
2. Horrible Bosses- $31.6 million
3. The Zoo Keeper- $20.3 million
4. Cars 2- $12.7 million
5. Bad Teacher- $7 million
Transformers 3 – 42.2 million
Horrible Bosses – 32.8 million
The Zoo Keeper – 19.4 million
Cars 2 – 13.7 million
Bad Teacher – 7.2 million
Larry Crown – 6.1 million
Super 8 – 5.4 million
Monte Carlo – 3.6 million
Midnight in Paris – 2.8 million
Mr. Popper's Pinguins – 2.3 million
horrible bosses-27 million
Zookeeper-17 million
Given how hugely Transformers 3 launched internationally over the second film I actually don't think $800 million+ is in any doubt at all. Though I'd have thought a budget of $250 million would have been more like it……….anyway, the film will just make it's money with a heavier split towards that income source area.
The first film dropped around 41% and the second 62% in their second weekend so I'm gonnat thread the needle in the middle and go with a little over 50% on this one and around $47.5 million.
Horrible Bosses – $27.8 million
The Zookeeper – $21 million.
I'm pretty surprised by how strongly Bad Teacher has done and will do by the time it's over. Plus, although Super 8 was initially tacking a path similarly to District 9 it's now going to outpace it domestically by a noteworthy margin. It's almost equalled that film's final take and it's still got a bit to take in. Plus with additional foreign to come in, it should easily go over $200 million once all is done.
1. Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $48.1M I agree, it's better than 2, but it's still a god awful movie. But the kids like it so it will do well.
2. Zookeeper – $25.6M I think this movie will have a decent weekend, James is a bigger draw now than Jim Carrey, and he's got plenty of Paul Blart good will still. My wife works with kids and they are all excited about seeing this one. She says most are imitating the gorilla when he says "Shut Up!" in the trailer.
3. Horrible Bosses – $25.5M This is going to be close. I don't see it doing a Bad Teacher opening and it doesn't have the WOM for a Bridesmaids opening, but I think it will win because there's not a lot of adult stuff this weekend now that Bad Teacher is disappearing and Larry Crowne blew.
4. Cars 2 – $15M
5. Bad Teacher – $7.1M
I agree with Check Spot, Zookeeper will take 2nd.
1. Transformers: 44
2. Zookeeper: 27
3. Horrible Bosses: 23
Okay everyone>>>>TF2 saturday fell on a saturday so if you take out that equation then it's 2nd weekend would be $52 Million…During the week TF3 is performing nearly exactly like TF2 however i am expecting this one to drop more like Iron Man 1 than TF2…So I think we should expect Dark of the Moon to have a 2nd weekend of about $52 Million…
Transformers dropped because people HATED the last movie. I can't even round up a crew of my friends to go see the movie (and I thought TF2 was the worst film of 2009 by far). I'm sure there are plenty of audiences out there who were burnt by the last pic so they're sitting this one out.
Um…yeah, these predictions are about spot on. I still think Zookeeper's got the makings of a breakout hit, to the point where it could legitimately challenge Transformers for the top spot (remember, Paul Blart was supposed to only open to $18 million its first weekend, and it doubled that easily). But I'll go with tracking and say that Horrible Bosses will take the #2 spot.
1. Transformers: Dark of the Moon, $40 million. Positive word of mouth was supposed to buoy up Cars last weekend and it didn't. I've gone back and forth on this one, but I just can't see it holding up at the 50% range. As far as "what happened" financially…people got burned by the absolutely terrible second film. This one is better, but it's still not a good film by any means. Just more of the same with less offensiveness.
2. Horrible Bosses, $30.4 million.
3. Zookeeper, $24.3 million.
My guess on these two has been reversed. I figured around $30 million for Zookeeper and $20 million for Bosses. Apparently the tracking doesn't bear those out though, so I'm siding with the tracking.
4. Cars 2, $13.1 million.
5. Larry Crowne, $7.8 million.
6. Bad Teacher, $5.8 million.
7. Super 8, $5.1 million.
8. Monte Carlo, $3.7 million.
9. Midnight in Paris, $2.9 million.
10. Green Lantern, $2.6 million.
Saw Transformers this afternoon and I'm probably gonna skip Horrible Bosses for now, so nothing for me this weekend. Looking forward to my first Potter midnight experience this time next week!
It is amazing how the box office overseas is saving many of these films! Sure, Transformers 3 won't beat the original domestically with these numbers, but revenue elsewhere seems to be growing at an astounding rate and might push it close to $1B WW! Likewise, Cars 2 (with its gradual rollout) looks to make over $400 million overseas, making it a success (although not as big as it could have been.)
1. Transformers 3- $48 million
2. Horrible Bosses- $23.2 million
3. Zookeeper- $16.7 million
4. Cars 2- $15.9 million
5. Bad Teacher- $7.7 million
I think "Horrible Bosses" has a strong chance at breaking 30 million this weekend, almost everyone I know is really excited for it and the positive reviews and strong cast will definitely help. I'm hopefully seeing it tomorrow.
Transformers: Dark of the Moon- $47.8 mil (good word of mouth will help, but I think people aren't as interested in this franchise as they once were)
Horrible Bosses- $30 mil
Zookeeper- $19 million (it looks horrible and I'm hoping families realize that)
Wether or not the 3rd film is better than the 2nd one is irrelevant, people don't know the quality of the movie beforehand. You're disputing why Transformers 3 isn't making as good as business as the 2nd installment, but it isn't rocker science. People didn't like Transformers 2, so they didn't go see Transformers 3. I personally haven't seen the 3rd film and I won't. I have no interest in this franchise after Revenge of the Fallen and I'm not the only one who gave up on it. Hopefully, we never get another one.
What Alejandro said +1. A large part of box office receipts for a franchise have to be attributed to the quality of the film(s) that precedes it. X-Men First Class was a better film than Last Stand and Wolverine but once you've been burned, it's harder to pull people back into the cinema – hence the underwhelming box office return for XM1C and TDOTM. Based on this rule of thumb, my predictions are that Dark Knight Rises and Star Trek 2 will be juggernauts, whereas Hangover 3, Iron-Man 2, Green Lantern 2 will tank hard based on their predecessors now matter how good the film is.
We already had Iron Man 2. The Big juggenaughts in 2012 will be The Hobbit part 1, The Dark Knight Rises and Bond 23 not Star Trek 2.
TF3- 44.6m
Bosses- 30.3m
Zookeeper- 28.8m
Absolutely no idea where Zookeeper will go. Under 25m amd over 35m wouldn't surprise me, so I sort of compromised.
Transformers 3 – 44.7M
Horrible Bosses – 31.2M
Zookeeper – 18.1M
Cars 2 – 14.4M
Bat Teacher – 7.2M
Zookeeper will top the box office this week. Never underestimate the power of the family market.
Why do you think Diary of a Whimpy Kid 2 beat out the heavilly hyped Shutter-Islandesque Sucker Punch?
Diary of a Wimpy Kid was based on a franchise. Sucker Punch was not a proven brand.
Besides, Hangover 2 clearly won over Kung FU Panda 2.
I stand corrected reguarding the Hangover 2 statement.
However
Rio did beat out Scream 4 and Tyler Perry's latest
Rango did beat out Adjustment Beauro (whatever you like to call it)
Hop did beat out Insidious, Scorce Code,and Hanna among others.
But the point is that family films could just be as likely to bomb as they are to suceed. What I'm trying to say is that kids are finicky on what to see. Mars Needs Moms bombed badly against Battle LA.
1. TF3: 45 million
2. Horrible Bosses: 29 million.
3. Cars 2: 15 million
4. Zoo Keeper: 14 million
Analysis: Transformers is holding up better than TF2.
Horrible Bosses should be succesful because of the diversity of actors (not bankable on their own but can really make an impact together.). This should hold up well because of good word of mouth and a plot that taps into one of every american's frustrations and desires.
I predict Zookeeper will bomb because if a collboration between Kevin and Vince can bomb, what are the odds this one will do any better. This does have a potentially bankable cast as voices but are being ignored in favor of Kevin James. Adam Sandler's name alone can ensure this one a blockbuster. Although I'm dissapointed in how Cars 2 is falling, this won't change the success of Zookeeper.
39.2 million for TF3. The weekday numbers have been going down sharply. Zookeeper takes second with 35 million, and horrible bosses gets 25 million.