Comments on: Box-Office Oracle: Oct. 23 – Oct. 25, 2009

By: laremy

laremy — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:46:56 +0000

@Topy: I think parents count even less on reviews than most people though. I think it's more of a "is there anything we can go to right now" vibe with the parentals.

By: Bram

Bram — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:03:59 +0000

1. Saw VI – 26.7 million
2. Paranormal Activity – 23.2 million
3. Where The Wild Things Are – 16.3 million
4. Cirque du Freak – 11.9 million
5. Law Abiding Citizen – 10.6 million
6. Couples Retreat – 9.6 million
7. Astro Boy – 8.4 million
8. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs – 5.8 million
9. The Stepfather – 5.5 million
10. Zombieland – 4.2 million

By: Topy

Topy — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 11:45:38 +0000

I changed my mind, Paranormal is expanding 1000 theaters, so I guess it should nost out Saw VI in the 20M+ mark, still don't think Saw will beat It…

After the reviews, I think astro boy won't even make 10 million…

By: Athar

Athar — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 11:04:29 +0000

@laremy: Yes. I know the movie isnt really hot property. Still, there are people who might be interested in seeing Hillary Swank's portrayal of Amelia. Apart from that there will be some others who would go to watch the movie just to find out how bad it is. That is why i am giving it 6k per theater. The only prediction which i am a little doubtful about is Paranormal Activity. I think i am short by about 3 mil on that one.

By: Nick

Nick — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 09:43:07 +0000

1. Saw VI – $29.4 million
2. Paranormal Activity – $23.8 million
3. Where the Wild Things Are – $19.1 million
4. Cirque du Freak – $13.6 million
5. Astro Boy – $12.9 million
6. Couples Retreat – $10.6 million
7. Law Abiding Citizen – $9.5 million
8. The Stepfather – $5.2 million
9. Cloudy – $5.1 million
10. Zombieland – $4.1 million

By: Topy

Topy — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 07:08:12 +0000

Oh, and Paranormal Activity will retain it. 17.8M

Saw? Number 2 at 17.6M

By: Topy

Topy — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 07:07:18 +0000

Astro Boy can try it out in the Wordlwide scene, I don't think Summit did their marketing well. Not one trailer is shown to the Philippines…

By: Andres

Andres — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 06:17:03 +0000

I think overall I will have Paranormal Activity win this week, getting 1945 theaters this week I think a 13,000 average is quite fair. I might be completely wrong, but I m giving it a shot…

1. Paranormal Acitvity – 26.2
2. Saw VI – 24.5
3. Where the wild things are – 16.5
4.Law Abiding Citizens – 10.4
5. Couples Retreat – 9.1
6. Astro Boy – 9.0
7. Cirque Du Freak – 6.0
8.The Stepfather – 5.1
9. Amelia – 4.2
10. Cloudy with a chance of meatball – 4.0

By: mfan

mfan — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 03:41:19 +0000

Factoid for future box office predictions: Vince Vaughn has become more popular than I thought. In the wake of Couples Retreat, his DVD, The Breakup, was the fifteenth best selling DVD for the week ending October 11. It made $631,844, selling 77,201 units of this three year old title, totaling $51,099,146.

Saw VI 28.5 million
Try talking about this movie to fans, and see if they spontaneously invite you to see it.

By: movssslovvves

movssslovvves — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 03:27:02 +0000

Saw VI 27.3 million
Where the Wild Things Are: 17.8 million
Paranormal Activity: 15.8 million

By: JM

JM — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 02:23:50 +0000

1. Saw VI: $27.5mil. Although public interest in the Saw series has dropped quickly from movie to movie, much slower to drop is diehard fan interest. Saw V saw roughly a $1.7mil drop in the opening weekend, which is close to what Saw IV saw from Saw III. So that would mean $28.3mil from Saw VI. However, there IS Paranormal Activity. Although PA will definitely mean a lot of competition, I don't think it'll hurt Saw's opening much because the diehard fans are going to see it anyway. What PA WILL hurt is Saw's 2nd weekend, especially Halloween night. I'll bet quite a few people are going to see PA on Halloween, and Saw VI is going to hurt from that. It may see a 70% 2nd-weekend drop, which would be the first in the series.

2. Paranormal Activity: $25.1mil. Maybe you didn't notice, Laremy, but it's more than doubling its theater count. Also, "Saw" won't steal much of its audience. With franchises like Saw, which have a diehard fanbase but virtually no public interest, they enter the market with a splash, but they don't take away business from other films.

3. Where the Wild Things Are: $16.8mil. I'm dinging it, too. But I'm going to see it this weekend. And my 12-year-old sister said she liked it (and will likely see it again with me & my older sister).

4. Astro Boy: $13.5mil. Some of the advance reviews were positive, others weren't. Could be a soft hit. Or is Summit looking at yet another failure? Outside of "Twilight," the only other hit they've had is "Knowing." All their other movies didn't make back their money in theaters.

5. Law Abiding Citizen: $11.0mil. Critics hated it, but I feel audiences liked it. Sort of like with "Knowing." So I predict a drop less than 50%.

6. Couples Retreat: $10.0mil

7. Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant: $5.7mil. Poll numbers seem to suggest it'll go the way of "City of Ember," i.e., it'll fail. These fantasy-book-adaptations very rarely do well and often fail. Even "The Golden Compass," which is one of the most popular fantasy series out there, was only good for a $26mil OW.

8. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs: $5.5mil

9. The Stepfather (2009): $5.2mil

10. Zombieland: $4.2mil

11. Amelia: $3.0mil. This is like "Taking Woodstock." Bad reviews, and nobody's interested in seeing it. What a shame. The pedigree was so good.

Next weekend: Saw VI falls hard, PA holds pretty well, most other films suffer from the Halloween Day drop (especially the kids' films), and "This Is It" takes #1.

By: Joel

Joel — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 02:23:20 +0000

I saw "Amelia" last night and don't get all the hate. Not to say it's a good movie (indeed, it is far too safe and conventional for that), but for me, it wasn't awful. I think it will crack the top ten, but you might be right, Laremy. "Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant" simply isn't a good movie, but it'll do respectably. "Astro Boy" is pretty terrible and I don't think it'll register very much. "Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs" is still the only good animated release so far this fall, but even "9" was better than "Astro Boy," if only slightly. I'm seeing "Saw VI" LATE tonight, so I'll give my thoughts on this thread; but you're right, it'll own this weekend.

The only good movie being released in my parts this weekend is "Antichrist," which I think is a film of singular vision. It isn't perfect, but it is truly horrifying. I saw it way back on the 5th in a special screening and can't stop thinking about it.

By: jeremy wein

jeremy wein — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 01:58:36 +0000

ill be bold and say saw 6 hits just over 30 like maybe 30.5 also astro boy at 13 amelia at 1.5 paranormal at 16 and cirque de freak at 9

By: Seiko

Seiko — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 00:13:25 +0000

I think the most expensive saw movie didn't cost anything possibly over 20 mil, so as long as any Saw movie (with that higher budget) makes 50 mil worldwide, it'll still be a big winner. And if not, they could cut the budget down to 10 mil or even 5 mil (first two cost less than 3 million together) and be happy with 30 mil. So, I would say, this franchise will probably never die, not until at least 2013.

By: Bustray

Bustray — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 23:48:29 +0000

1. Saw VI- 24.4 million
2. Paranormal Activity- 20.0 million
3. Astro Boy- $17.3 million
4. Where The Wild Things Are- 15.5 million
5. Law Abiding Citizen- 10.3 million
6. Cirque Du Freake: The Vampire's Assistant- 9.7 million
7. Couple's Retreat- 9.4 million
8. Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballls- 5.8 million
9. The Stepfather- 5.0 million
10. Zombieland- 4.2 million

Outside of the top 10, I'm predicting Amelia will perform weakly in the area of 3.5 million.

By: JImbo

JImbo — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 23:45:27 +0000

1 Saw 6 $22,000,000.00
2 WTWTA $17,858,500.00
3 Paranormal $17,138,550.00
4 Law Abiding $13,812,500.00
5 Couples $11,666,850.00
6 cirque $11,200,000.00
7 astro $9,800,000.00
8 Stepfather $6,150,000.00
9 Cloudy $5,265,000.00
10 Amelia $4,000,000.00

By: laremy

laremy — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 22:22:19 +0000

@Athar: You've got $6k per theater for Amelia, eh Athar? That feels high to me, but we'll see.

By: m1

m1 — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 22:13:14 +0000

This week:

Saw VI (26 million)
Where the Wild Things Are (20)
Cirque Du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant (17)
Law Abiding Citizen (15)
Astro Boy (15)
Paranormal Activity (13)
Couples Retreat (11)
The Stepfather (10)
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs (6)
Zombieland (4)
Amelia (2)

Amelia might have a shot. Paranormal's weekly average isn't adding up well. Maybe a boost will help? The Stepfather will make a $11 million average. Astro Boy will be a surprise, and Law Abiding Citizen will not drop much. Weekly Averages might be given a boost UP this week.

By: Jonh-PT

Jonh-PT — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 22:07:44 +0000

Big weekend with lots of terror movies avalaible. Saw 6 will win, but Paranormal Activity will be big again, because it will expand to 1954 theaters. Where the Wild Things Are will fall tha usual for a kids movie (i know, this is not really a kids movie…). The Vampires Assistent, well, i think it will have the Sorrugates numbers. I dont know why but i feel that.

My top 5 predicition:
1: Saw 6 – $28.9M
2: Paranormal Activity – $19.6M
3: Where the Wild Things Are – $18.9M
4: The Vampire´s Assistent – $15.9M
5: Astro Boy – $13.5M

By: Gregory

Gregory — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 22:05:08 +0000

1. Saw 6
2. Where the Wild Things Are
3. Cirque Du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant
4. Paranormal Activity
5. Astro Boy
6. Law Abiding Citizen
7. Couples Retreat
8. Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs
9. Zombieland
10. A Serious Man

Overall, I'd want Where the Wild Things Are to come in first again, as I loved the movie. I thought the Cirque Du Freak books were great, and I'm going to see the movie tommorrow. I hope that comes in second after Wild Things. I hate the Saw series, and I hope that Saw 6 doesn't do well, although I'm pretty sure that it will open in 1st. Paranormal Activity will still do well, and I hope that Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs and Zombieland stay on the list. I think that the critically ravaged Amelia won't make the top 10.

By: JAB

JAB — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 21:39:34 +0000

1. Paranormal Activity
2. Saw VI
3. Where the Wild Things Are
4. Law Abiding Citizen
5. Astro Boy
6. Couples Retreat
7. Vampire's Assistant
8. Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
9. Zombieland
10. Stepfather

By: Athar

Athar — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 21:34:31 +0000

I got only partial credit last time. So this time i decided to be amongst the first to get the predictions in.

1.) Saw 6 – $26 mil
Its not as hot as the previous movie. Still…Its got to get atleast 8k per theater.

2.) Where the Wild Things Are – $14.5 mil
I am going to drop this more than 50%. From what i have heard, its not a movie with repeat value. And by now the word is out that it is not actually meant for the kids. The movie is looking like a Losing Proposition to me.

3.) Paranormal Activity – $13 mil

4.) Law Abiding Citizen – $12.5 mil
It might not be getting good reviews, but the word of mouth on this one is good. People are liking this movie. It should not drop more than 50%

5.) Astro Boy – $ 10.5 mil
6.) Circue Du Freak: The Vampires Assistant – $ 9.8 mil
7.) Couples Retreat – $ 9 mil
8.) Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs – $ 6.5 mil
9.) The Stepfather – $ 5 mil
10.) Amelia – $ 4.8 mil