Box-Office Oracle: Oct. 22 – Oct. 24, 2010
Paranormal Activity 2 will win. But will it hit $40m?
Last weekend I asked how the Jackass franchise would have made more fans in the time that had passed since the sequel. This proved to be a terrible question, as the film banked beyond all reason. Lesson learned, I won't get fooled again!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
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| I don't see it until tonight, so no idea on the quality, although online buzz has been quite good after midnighters last night. However, I'm bumping it up significantly from the biggest weekend the original had, though that one put up $19m / $21m / $16m weekends last October, so the demand could be enormous. Also of note, in 2009 Paranormal Activity finally expanded to 1,945 theaters in its fifth weekend, and then proceeded to whip SAW VI. It was a masterful release schedule, brilliantly executed. This year they are facing off against Hereafter, not quite the same demo. And they've got all the goodwill built up by the original. Plus they're rocking almost 1,000 theaters more than they ever had with the original. Yep, it is time to get very bullish about Paranormal Activity 2. Prediction: $37.7 million |
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Hard to know what to dip this one because the previous two didn't massively drop … but they didn't open at $50m either. I'm going with a 54 percent bleed, still very respectable given the demo and amount of cash they've already hauled in.
Prediction: $23.16 million
My upset pick of the week, Red over Hereafter. My reasoning is that older folk like watching lively older folk more than they like watching death tales (insert Ducktales theme song here).
Prediction: $13.57 million
Getting around 2,200 theaters, not enough. They are marketing it, I've seen trailers, but this feels like a very soft landing for Hereafter.
Prediction: $13.08 million
I saw a film this week, a film I'm not allowed to talk about, a film both Brad and I agree puts
The Social Network to shame and one he's
already reviewed. Financially,
The Social Network is at $82m on a production budget of $50m. Still has some work to do.
Prediction: $6.82 million
Not one film in the top ten has a budget of $100m. We're officially in Oscar season!
Prediction: $6.5 million
I'm giving it the second biggest dip of the weekend, just out of spite.
Prediction: $4.8 million
It has done decently internationally, improving the outlook a bit.
Prediction: $2.57 million
Zack Snyder could have spent $43m less and made The Town instead!
Prediction: $1.93 million
Michael Douglas for Best Supporting Actor? Okay. For old time's sake.
Prediction: $1.33 million
How say you? Wanna go $40m on Paranormal Activity 2? Am I underrating Hereafter? Comment, predict, take umbrage, you know the drill!
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I really don't mean to be difficult, but why is $82m on $50m production budget a bad thing for TSN? It's proven to have decent legs, too.
Rule of thumb…ish is if you double your budget, you've at least made your money back (theater splits the total money w/ the studio, plus backend deals if any for the actors involved). So the movie still needs another $20 million to match its budget, then after that it can start making a profit.
Yes, but a movie earns 55 percent back of its money in the theaters, so at 75 million it was all bank, def. by 80 mill. Plus over seas makes it a modest hit. Also it is great when a movie doubles up in the states, like Grown up did for adam S. but it is also good to just break what your budget was. REsident evil 4 for example, it will just barely pass the 60 million budget, but it will amass 100's of millions over seas! boxofficemojo.com
It's not. Speaking of rules of thumb, many people believe that a films domestic gross is a good stand-in for it's total profitability including all revenue streams. So TSN can be projected to have already made it's budget back, and maybe already made it's marketing costs back. So it has basically broken even so far without any overseas money counted yet. It should actually overperform on DVD too.
The work to do has to do with making a profit, which it will. But films with smaller budgets can more easily make a profit. Films with bigger budgets can also more easily make a profit, but they are risky because they could hurt you badly if they fail.
Or, some people say that a sudio often spends on marketing about what a films production budget is, but this is variable. If the marketing budget was indeed $50 million, then, yes, the film has a ways to go for profitablilty, but will surely get there with overseas money. Anytime a film breaks out big in America, people from other countries hear about it and are often curious to see the film. Thus The Hangover made $190 million overseas.
I'd also like to say, though it's obvious, that a films profitability is not the be all and end all of a films success. It affects which films get made, but not neccesarily a films impact. A good example is Streets of Fire, a 1984 film with Diane Lane, Willem Defoe et al. This well made film was great for the resumes of the actors involved and helped even the supporting actors get jobs in other films. Industry insiders are watching too, and making their own judgements about a film on a number of it's elements, profitability being one of those elements.
1. PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 2 – $46.5 million
2. JACKASS 3D – $24.5 million
3. RED – $14.1 million
4. HEREAFTER – $12.3 million
5. SOCIAL NETWORK – $7.1 million
I might possibly see PA2 this weekend, but first I still need to catch up on SOCIAL NETWORK, RED, JACKASS3D, and BURIED. Ugh. how did I get so behind?
Have a spooooky weekend, everyone. haha.
:)
Paranormal Activity 2 – 43.2M
Jackass 3D – 17.8M
RED – 13.2M
Hereafter – 11.8M
Secretariat – 7.0M
1: *Paranormal Activity 2* – $60.2 million
2: *Jackass 3D* – $22.0 million
3: *Red* – $13.8 million
4: *Hereafter* – $11.7 million
5: *Social Network* – $6.8 million
You are insane lol
It's worth a try. haha. I can totally see it exploding successfully and surprising everyone like J3D did last week. I think Paramount is delivering all the right moves to a T, in terms of what people want to see RIGHT NOW. I know I'm being bullish. That's not my gimmick, I promise… I'll be more levelheaded with Saw next week. This def seems possible though. :)
If this were in 3D, I think you would actually be damn close.
1. Paranormal Activity 2 – $45.2M It's going to be big. Won't break the October record, but should have the WOM to have a nice weekend. It looks like we've got a new film to take the Saw every Halloween thing for a bit.
2. Jackass 3-D – $23.6M
3. Red – $12.4M
4. Hereafter- $8.9M Less buzz than other Eastwood films that opened in this range (Changeling, Invictus, etc.) Don't see it doing well.
And then the rest.
I really don't see the excitment there for Paranormal Activity. I think Jackass has a good shot at repeating it's victory from last weekend.
I've seen 127 Hours and The Social Network and while they are both great, 127 Hours doesn't even come close to the greatness of The Social Network. It loses far too much steam toward the end.
1. Paranormal Activity- $25.5 million
2. Jackass 3D- $18.2 million
3. Red- $13.1 million
4. Hereafter- $9.5 million
5. The Social Network- $7.2 million
6. Secretariat- $6.8 million
7. Life As We Know It- $5.7 million
8. Legend of the Guardians- $2.7 million
9. The Town- $2.6 million
10. Easy A- $1.6 million
I liked "127 Hours," but I wouldn't put it on a level above "The Social Network." I think Boyle works his themes a bit too much to the point of overkill in the final few minutes. I still admired it overall – especially technically, and for Franco's performance – but I think my emotional reaction to it was less significant than it will be for most viewers.
OT: I still look forward to 127 Hours, and while The Social Network was great, Inception is still the film to beat in my book.
1. Paranormal Activity 2 – $35 million. I want to go bigger, but in case it goes under the others expectations, I'd like to have the 'bullish' vote to myself. ;-)
2. Jackass 3D – $24.2 million. Just a bit more than 50%.
3. Red – $13.6 million. Laremy's call sounds spot on. Decent hold for a decent film.
4. Hereafter – $10.7 million. My dad's very excited for this film, but I don't know how many men in their 60's can say the same enough to run out opening weekend.
5. The Social Network – $7.1 million. Strong legs for a great film, but I still don't see why it's being hailed at "The film of a generation". Yes, it's about the Facebook era, but I related to almost none of the characters on screen with the possible exception being Eduardo Saverin.
Early prediction for next week: Saw 3D dissapoints with $19 – $25 million.
Anyone want to take bets on who can have the smallest error percentage for the top 5?
Paranormal Activity 2: $38,696,841.60
Jackass 3D: $23,917,979.475
Hereafter: $15,243,474.28
Red: $12,186,388.48
The Social Network: $7,229,914.55
It's an interesting weekend as PA2 could really do anything from 25-50, with out it being that big of a surprise.
Also, I think people are underestimating how big Hereafter will be. Older audiences didn't pay to see Secretariat and TSN is slow moving train in that department, and the buzz among the older critics is that they find it absolutely superb. I want to go higher, but I'll err on the side of caution.
Though, a question? Are they counting the Thursday 10pm towards the weekend? I always forget how this works officially.
52 million for a paronormal, besting the record but just a few million
and rope of silicon has got to stop hating on the social network
1. Paranormal Activity 2- $32.4 million
2. JackAss 3-D- $18.1 million
3. Red- $14.2 million
4. Hereafter- $13.6 million
5. The Social Network- $7.4 million
1. Paranormal Activity 2, $35.4 million. I never saw the original, but I understand there was a bit of a love-hate thing with it. So I'm going with the same PTA as it's #1 weekend. Unless I'm wrong on the original's word of mouth, I would be surprised if this goes much over $40 million.
2. Jackass 3, $20.4 million. This has got to fall big right? The first two fell 45% and 50%, but didn't open nearly as high. And this seems like a highly frontloaded type of movie. But it was into pure profit on Monday morning probably, so how fast does Jackass 4 come along? Next year?
3. Hereafter, $14.1 million. I'm giving this a similar PTA to The Lovely Bones…both death-themed, both with popular directors as their main selling points. I know the reviews are mixed, but I'll still give anything Eastwood makes a chance, so I'll be seeing it this weekend.
4. Red, $11.9 million. A 45% drop. I didn't really like it; thought it was too slow for what I expected, and not that funny.
5. The Social Network, $7.2 million.
6. Secretariat, $6.5 million.
7. Life As We Know It, $4.5 million.
8. Legend of the Guardians, $2.5 million.
9. The Town, $2.3 million.
10. Easy A, $1.5 million.
1. Parnormal Activity, 34.2 million
2. Jackass 18.8 million
3. red 13.2 million
4. hereafter 10.1 million
5. the social network 6.5 million
1. Paranormal Activity 2: $48.76 million
2. Jackass 3D: $20.4 million
3. Hereafter: $13. 2 million
4. Red: $9.45 million
5. The Social Network: $7 million
6. Secretariat: $5.2 million
7. Life as We Know It: $3.8 million
8. The Town: $3 million
9. Owl Movie: $1.8 million
10. Easy A: $1.2 million
PA 2 is gonna win it and win it big. It may even knock out Jackass 3D's record, but who knows, maybe it'll be a bust, but that is very unlikely.
Are people really excited about "PA2". I know we live in a world that Jackass 3D can make $50M, but still.
I knows it has received mixed reviews, but of the previews I've seen for the movies out this weekend, I liked the one for "Hereafter" by far the most. So I'm going to give it a solid #3 with $17M. I tend to think that "PA2" won't draw that many people who didn't see the original, so I'll give it just $22M, with "Jackass 3D" lagging at $17.5M. Its numbers have declined quite a bit during the week, so I suspect it's quite front-loaded.
To be fair Jackass 3D's target audience has to go to college on weekdays, which explains why it's numbers have alledgedly declined.
My Predictions
1. Jackass 3D: $38 million (it has 3D in it's favor)
2. Paranormal Activity 2: $34 million (fans of the first will flock to the second)
3. Red: $18 million (it has most screens but a hard to reach demo)
4. Hereafter: 15 million (huge expansion)
5. The Social Network $10 million (WOM may help it)
1. Paranormal Activity 2: 42.15 million
2. Jackass 3D: 24.31 Million
3: Hereafter: 14.25 Million
4: Red: 13.82 Million
5: The Social Network: 6.92 Million
6: Secretariat: 5.84 Million
7: Life As We Know It: 5.13 Million
8: Owls: 3.1 Million
9: The Town: 2.4 Million
10: Easy A: 1.8 Million
1. Paranormal Activity 2- $24.1 million
2. Jackass 3D- $19.1 million
3. Hereafter- $15.5 million
4. Red- $12.6 million
5. The Social Network- $7.5 million
6. Secretariat- $6.3 million
7. Life As We Know It- $5.2 million
8. Legend of the Guardians- $2.3 million
9. The Town- $2.2 million
10. Easy A- $1.2 million
I think Paranormal Activity 2 is a reall hard one to call. The first had some intrigue and mystery and a slow drip release pattern letting word of mouth build for a few weeks until it went national.
Then you either loved it or totally hated it. It's not normally an in-between movie. So, I think the built in audience may be smaller than expected. But then again, it's also Halloween season and people will be looking for a film that may offer that.
I'm going to go similarly to Ian and use it's biggest weekend PTA and up it a bit to a PTA of $11,500 because of the demands of fans who did like it.
So –
1: Paranormal Activity 2 – $36.9 million
2: Jackass 3D – $20 million. I think a 50% fall at least, but will actually say 60%. Since it's already in great profit they should be happy with that and take the gravy.
3: Hereafter – $15 million. I think Eastwood has a loyal base and reputation and that may help him on opening weekend even if it then falls quickly. Or, it will tank utterly and not even crack ten million. I'll give it some optimism on it's first weekend, especially since it's 6 theatre launch wasn't bad.
4: Red – $14.5 million. A reasonable fall for this one but not a precipitous one I think.
5: The Social Network – $7.1 million. Another steady drop, nice and easy.
Sorry, for PA2 I mean it's PTA the week it made No.1