Box-Office Oracle: Oct. 16 – Oct. 18, 2009
COMMENTS
Where the Wild Things Are will win. But how high will it fly?
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks in a Row
Spike Jonze doesn't seem to know who the film is for. Same deal with Warner Bros. The film is rated PG, which would lead you to believe it's for kids. But it's pretty scary, and more than a little depressing. Which is normally adult fare.
But for this weekend enough people are interested that it doesn't really matter who it's intended for. It only matters that it's new. So I think around $9k per theater will do it. Case closed.
Estimate: $33.6 million
A very tough movie to predict because it's hard to say whether the enforced scarcity has built up demand. I think it has, obviously, based on my prediction. But no number between $13m and $25m would surprise me. In the land of the mediocre the fan favorite is king.
Estimate: $19.8 million
I'm only dipping it 48 percent. No competition in the demographic.
Estimate: $17.9 million
A surprisingly entertaining little flick. But I think people will be pretty wary, as they aren't used to seeing this sort of fare in October.
Estimate: $11.6 million
It's PG-13, which would normally help it, but the buzzier Paranormal Activity is gonna own it. Sony has got to be pissed. Perhaps they should have opened it in 100 theaters? Could be the wave of the future.
Estimate: $8.8 million
6. Zombieland
Four "violent" films in the top six. Five if you count Where the Wild Things Are.
Estimate: $8.7 million
It cleared $2.5m on Monday, good for the second spot. I suppose Columbus Day helped there. It's up $127m worldwide cume, about $100m short of profit at this point. So yeah, they'll be hitting the DVD hard this Christmas.
Estimate: $7.6 million
I thought this was only going to be in theaters for two weeks? Oh, that's right, they're extending the run so "more of you can see it". Yeah, I'm sure it has nothing to do with the money this cash cow is raking in. The numbers say it's only losing 300 theaters this weekend and with it already raking in $25 million of free money for Pixar, it would seem to be a lucrative business to simply dust off films they made in 3D originally (as all Pixar animation starts in 3D).
Estimate: $3.6 million
I meant to read the script for this film this week. Maybe I'll do it this weekend and report back what went wrong here seeing how the script is said to be great. It's the least I can do.
Estimate: $1.6 million
How say you? Y'all had wildly divergent predictions ranging from $25m to $49m on Where the Wild Things Are last Sunday. Have any minds changed as the reviews roll out?
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Where the Wild Things Are will win, that is sure. Paranormal Activity will expand to 760 theatres and the other two wide releases have fail written all over it,
My Prediction:
1: Where The Wild Things Are – $32.8M
2: Couples Retreat – $18.7M
3: Paranormal Activity – $18.0M
4: The Stepfather – $11.1M
5: Law Abiding Citizen – $8.9M
I actually think Where The Wild Things is going to play out like Up. With an opening a bit better then expected but amazing legs to keep it going strong. With almost 5 decades of kids reading this book, somebody must have caught on to the darker elements of the book and know what they are getting into. I'm saying $42 million opening weekend and hoping it has a shot at $200 million.
As for the rest
2. Paranormal Activity- $22.4 million
3. Couples Retreat- $16.7 million
4. Law Abiding Citizen- $9.2 million
5. Zombieland- $8.7 million
6. The Stepfather- $6.1 million (Sony must be pissed.)
Crazy weekend that's hard to put a finger on, but I'll give it a shot…
1. Where the Wild Things Are- $43.1 million
2. Paranormal Activity- $22.4 million
3. Couple's Retreat- $18.5 million
4. The Stepfather- $11.9 million
5. Law Abiding Citizen- $9.5 million
6. Zombieland- $8.4 million
7. Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs- $7.8 million
8. Toy Story/Toy Story 2 3D- $4.8 million
9. Surrogates- $2.4 million
10. Whip It- $1.7 million
I'm hopeful for Wild things but I really think that it will fail to reach the top spot. I few days ago I was hoping that it could reach the 40 million mark but now I think it'll only do half that. With reviews being a little more mixed and most of those critics commenting on how dark it is I think parents will want to keep there kids away from it. Paranormal Activity could reach the top spot but I have a bad feeling that Stepfather will reach number one, or worse Couples retreat will do repeat business.
1. Where the Wild Things Are – 33.8 million
2. Paranormal Activity – 20.4 million
3. Couples Retreat – 18.2 million
4. Law Abiding Citizen – 11.4 million
5. The Stepfather – 9.8 million
Finally Paranormal Activity is playing within an hour drive of the craphole town I live in so I will be seeing that this weekend!
I think Whip It! will take #10.
1. Where the Wild Things Are–$36.6mil. There's a lot of excitement for this one. But it's like Watchmen: the critics are mixed, and most of them agree it's a bit of a mess. Some audiences will adore it with all their hearts, but I think mainstream audiences will be confused. Expect a large OW but large drops, too.
2. Paranormal Activity–$22.8mil. It's only in 760 theaters this weekend. Not enough to get first place. But it'll post a strong second with around $30,000 PTA.
3. Couples Retreat–$17.6mil. No matter how horrible a romantic comedy is, if it opens decently it never drops more than 50%. Even "All About Steve" managed to hold more than half its audience opening weekend.
4. Law Abiding Citizen–$13.1mil. Bad reviews, but audience reaction seems mildly positive. It won't be a hit, but it won't be a bomb, either.
5. Zombieland–$8.9mil.
6. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs–$7.4mil. Good hold, but WTWTA will take away some of its business. Of course, maybe it won't; I thought "Watchmen" would take away from Taken's gross, but "Taken" only fell 25% on Watchmen's opening weekend.
7. The Stepfather (2009)–$5.8mil. "Whiteout." "Sorority Row." "Jennifer's Body." "Pandorum." All failed. Meanwhile, "Paranormal Activity" is making it big, and it will steal its thunder. Next weekend: "Saw VI." "The Stepfather" is in the midst of an overlog of horror movies, and it's competing against one that is proven to be an audience success. Nobody will want to see it. My prediction might even be too high.
8. Toy Story / Toy Story 2 (3D)–$4.9mil
9. Surrogates–$2.6mil
10. Whip It–$1.8mil
1. Where The Wild Things Are – 41.3 million
2. Paranormal Activity – 21.6 million
3. Couples Retreat – 16.6 million
4. Law Abiding Citizen – 15.1 million
5. The Stepfather – 9.3 million
6. Zombieland – 7.9 million
7. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs – 7.3 million
8. Toy Story/Toy Story 2 – 4.3 million
9. Surrogates – 2.2 million
10. Whip It – 1.6 million
With Saw VI coming out next weekend for a reliable $30 million, I'm very surprised Paramount didn't make a bigger effort to expand Paranormal Activity more quickly. Will people be willing to see both movies? Because, in my experience, SAW fans are very commited.
Sony, on the other hand, is totally commited to 'This Is It', paying $60 million for the film footage, and at least $36 million for 1200 prints for a simultaneous worldwide release. If Disney won't hold to their 2 weeks only schedule for Toy Story, Sony definitely won't for 'This Is It.'
Did Disney see an opportunity to be the safe alternative for parents who heard negative things about WTWTA? Or was this the plan all along? WTWTA push for more theaters could indicate they are worried about poor word of mouth and want to rake in what they can immediately. Or do digital theaters need prints anymore? What ever happened to studios selling theaters digital downloads? Is this happening?
More questions than answers this weekend.
1.where the wild things are-$67 well, its a very famous book
2.Paranormal activity-$25 its not in every theater. its not in the theater closest to me. more theaters next week
3.couples retreat-$16 it will be a $100 million dollar hit. well it has a great cast. maybe not great reviews.
4.zombieland-$10 well it will be the biggest zombie movie ever. but will it reach $100.
5.cloudy with a chance of meatballs-$9- it is doing great on weekends, but not on weekdays. its cuz kids are in school.
6.the stepfather-$8- middle school teens will be seein this. it is gonna suck though.
7.law abiding citizen-$6-just like sorority row, whiteout, jenifers body, and pandorum.
8.toy story 3d-$4-kids love toy story. especially in 3d
9.surrogates-$2.8-this is its last weekend
10.whip it-$2.1-fame aint in the top 10
43mil for Wild Things
19mil for Couples
15mil for Paranormal
Some are chucking out some crazy numbers for WTWTA I think
1)WTWTA – 28Mil
2) Law Abiding – 24
3) Couples -18.1
4) Paranormal -16
5)Stepfather – 8
6) Zombie – 6
7)CWCA-5.9
8) TS 1& 2 3D-3.8
9)Invention lying – 2.5
10)surrogates – 1.5
I cannot accurately guess how much wild things will make, I think it could be anywhere from 36 mil to DARE I SAY 100 mil. Although the latter is highly unlikely, this is a movie adaptation of a children's book everybody and their mother has read a gajillion times over. Then again movie adaptations of children's books usually do not do too well in the box office, so my guess is more around 50-60 mil. But it will for sure get number 1 spot. And just to strictly judge your predictions, I haven't seen much advertising for stepfather at ALL so I fail to see how it could possibly win a #5 spot, maybe in the top ten but certainly not the top five.
Finally a Weekend worth making the Predictions.
1.) Where The Wild Things Are – $ 29.5 mil
I cant see this one getting more than 8k per theater. In fact i feel even 29.5 is optimistic. Nothing against the title or the book. Just doesnt seem attractive enough.
2.) Law Abiding Citizen – $ 23.5 mil
Seems good to me. Should match WTWTA in terms of per screen average.
3.) Paranormal Activity – $ 21 mil
4.) Couples Retreat – $ 19 mil
5.) The Stepfather – $ 11 mil
6.) Zombieland – $7.8 mil
7.) Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs – $ 7 mil
8.) Toy Story 3D – $ 4 mil
9.) Whip It – $ 2 mil
10.) Blue – $ 1.8 mil
The last title is an Indian Movie… I think it would attract enough audience to make it to the Top 10
1. Where the Wild Things Are – $39.2 million
2. Couples Retreat – $17.1 million
3. Law Abiding Citizen – $14.9 million
4. Paranormal Activity – $14.1 million
5. Zombieland – $10.0 million
6. The Stepfather – $8.1 million
7. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs – $7.3 million
8. Toy Story / Toy Story 2 (3D) – $3.6 million
9. Surrogates – $2.3 million
10. The Invention of Lying – $1.9 million
This week I'm focusing on predicting the overall box office: Let's see who ends up the closest. (All the people who gave less than 10 predictions basically predicted very high box office; I added $2 million to everybody to approximate the top twelve)
Box Office $Millions
Mileyfan 105.0
Jimbo 115.8
Laremy 117.0
Nick 120.5
JM 126.5
Athar 128.8
Bram 129.2
Bustray 132.0
conner 151.9
@connor: I heard a funny rumor that middle school teens are going to buy tickets to the Stepfather, like you said, but only so they can sneak in to see Paranormal Activity! :)
Deadline Hollywood Friday Estimates:
Where the Wild Things Are – $12M: 3-day cume $38M
Law Abiding Citizen – $7.5M: 3-day cume $20M
Paranormal Activity – $6.25M: 3-day cume $19.5M
Couples Retreat – $6M: 3-day cume $19M
The Stepfather – $4.3M: 3-day cume $11M
i have a question regarding next week since i won't have time to go this weekend does anyone think cirque du freak: The Vampires assistant is gonna do good i hope it does because i'm a huge fan of the book's it is based on and have really high hopes for it and it looks good
and i'm really mad because paranormal activity is not playing where I live is that demand thing still opened