Box-Office Oracle: Oct. 1 – Oct. 3, 2010
The Social Network will win. But will it set any records?
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| There simply isn't much in the way of precedent for this film. Searching for Bobby Fischer maybe? Michael Clayton? Hackers? Nothing seems to be very comparable, making a prediction on this one tough. Add in the massive buzz coming from reviewers and you've got a very noisy room to predict from. It's a good movie (though I'd argue it wasn't a great one) and it should have a solid holdover going forward. But is it really going to open higher than The Town? October is a graveyard for drama, one has never opened above $30m for a weekend. So I'm taking right around three million people to see it. I'm guessing most will go higher, but I'd be surprised by anything over $28m. Let the games begin! Prediction: $22.531 million | |
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How say you? Be bold in your prognostications, mighty forces will come to your aid!
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i'm completely pumped about the social network (surprising given my distain for facebook), yet think that it'll be tight between let me in, and the fincher film.
social network – 28.75 mill
let me in – 27.5 mill
1. The Social Network – $27 million. I could see this land anywhere between $20 – $35 million, if buzz is good enough. I caught this at one of the first screening of the month a month ago, and was blown away. Look forward to seeing it again after a dissapointing September.
2. The Town – $11.5 million. Another good hold for this one, it's got people's attention. I'm going for my second screening of this one after I see Social again.
3. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps – $10.9 million. Dropping it a bit more than 40%. Wasn't impressed.
4. Legend of the Gaurdians – $10.7 million. A better than expected hold due to decent-to-good WoM and no other family competition.
5. Let Me In – $8.7 million. I don't see big business for this one. Internet people and fans of the original Swedish film will flock to it, but the buzz on this thing is DOA in my area. It could (and likely will) eclipse my expectations, but I'm sticking with sub-$10 mill.
Devil cost 10M. I read that on BoxOfficeMojo.
The Social Network – 31.1M
Wall Street 2 – 10.6M
Let Me In – 10.2M
The Town – 9.8M
Legend of the Guardians – 9.7M
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Case 39 – 4.2M
I hope Easy A hold well.
1. THE SOCIAL NETWORK – $34.5 million
2. LET ME IN – $13.9 million
3. WALL STREET 2 – $12.0 million
4. THE TOWN – $11.2 million
5. EASY A – $8.4 million
:)
The Social Network – $35.9m
Let Me In: $16.3m
Wall Street 2: $10.2m
How much does the writer think alpha and omega really cost? really? Lionsgate other than the spirit an killers usually does not over spend by much.
1. The Social Network – $32.8M If you look above the leave a comment line there's a button to connect to facebook. If this was any other October drama, then no, it would open light. But this is about facebook, which means teens to senior citizens are on it, and it's a phenomenon, so that alone should open it huge, plus the buzz is deafening right now.
2. The Town – $11.5M
3. Let Me In – $11.3M
4. Wall Street Money Never Sleeps – $11.2M
5. Legend of the Guardians – $11M
Actually, any of these could take two or five. It's going to be close after The Social Network. I have to admit that I'm a bit disappointed in the lack of publicity for Let Me In. Could've had decent sized opening, but the lack of theaters and the too much reliance on word of mouth means it will open small.
Oh, and Case 39, may open to $4M. I mean, it's a bad movie, and it's available on line thinks to the internet and the early releases across the world.
I'm going to be contrary and go low on the Social Network. It could really break out, but I think it could miss as well. While cinema fans are excited by it, most of the "average" folks I've talked to are turned off by what they've seen.
I'm also going to say that Case 39 is the more traditional horror entry, and may beat out Let Me In because of it.
The Social Network: $17.5m
Case 39: $12.3m
Let Me In: $7.5m
I'm very interested to see what all this hype for Social Network turns into. I personally don't have it doing more than 25 mil but we'll see.
Prepared for Social Network and Let Me In to explode.
1. Social Network- $28.8 million
2. Let Me In- $16.4 million
3. The Town- $11.7 million
4. WS2- $10.3 million
5. Easy A-$6.6 million
Bonus:Case 39- $4.6 million
P.S Forgot about Legends, let's say $9.7 million for that one.
The Social Network: $28,632,743
Let Me In: $11,285,740
Wall Street 2: $10,456,153
The Town: $10,299,412
1. The Social Network- $20.7 million:
This one has a lot of internet buzz going for it. But as we've seen with such movies as Scott Pilgrim vs. The World and Vampires Suck, huge online buzz doesn't always translate into big bucks. I think that Wall Street 2 and The Town will hurt it opening weekend, although it could have nice holdovers next few weeks.
2. The Town- $10.4 million
Should have an even nicer hold than last week. As for the best picture talk, I could see it happening just to recognize Ben Affleck for making a nice transition from in front of to behind the camera. Don't think it's very deserving, though.
3. Wall Street 2- $10.1 million
Actually thought it was sort of fun, but it didn't have a very nice Friday to Sunday hold and it had a weak Cinemascore. So going to go ahead and assume people weren't crazy about this one, I think it will drop over fifty percent.
4. Legend of the Guardians- $9.8 million
This, on the other hand, was not very good. But no children movie competition, and won't be for a while (unless parents decide to take kids to Secretariat, which I don't think is very likely.)
5. Let Me In- $9.1 million
I've heard it's good, just very quiet buzz for this one. Plus, competition from Case 39.
6. Case 39- $6.8 million
It looks bad, so I think people are going to choose Let Me In over it.
1. The Social Network, $23.5 million. This will obviously play will with film snobs and Fincher fanboys, but I'm still not sure how it will play with the general public. Just because everyone has a facebook account doesn't mean everyone wants to see a movie about facebook. I've seen the trailer in theatres countless times and the only reaction it ever got was laughter (that was a couple of times, most of the time it got no reaction). So I still don't know how the general public will support it, at least on opening weekend. If it's as good as it's supposed to be, it should play very well throughout the month. I'm excited to see it, but I'd rather see it before I start proclaiming it as the best movie of the year.
2. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, $11.4 million. I expressed my thoughts on this film in last week's wrap-up; essentially I thought the story was a bit of a mess, but I thought it was quite well written and acted and a hell of a lot of fun to watch.
3. Let Me In, $11.1 million. This feels like it should be getting about 1,000 more theatres. I realize it's an independent release, but it's been heavily marketed and it just feels like it should be bigger than it is. It's almost like they spent all their money on marketing and now can't afford a huge number of prints (that's an exaggeration; I know they start making the prints a couple months in advance). Also at nearly two hours it's about half an hour longer than most horror films.
4. Legend of the Guardians, $9.6 million. A 40% drop.
5. The Town, $9.3 million. I think this may fall a bit steeper with The Social Network opening, though it played very well against Wall Street.
6. Case 39, $8.8 million. This is getting more theatres than Let Me In. I think it would be funny if it actually outgrossed Let Me In, but that won't happen.
7. Easy A, $6.9 million. I loved this film, but I'm wondering how it will play to repeated viewings.
8. You Again, $4.2 million. A 50% drop. Too generous?
9. Devil, $2.8 million. This has got to fall bigger against two horror films right?
10. Resident Evil: Afterlife, $2.4 million.
I actually want to see Easy A again. I think it would still hold up, but not improve.
Can I just point out that Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps has a budget of $70M? And why exactly!? Why is that budget even close to that of Legends of Guardians? Anyway, The Social Network should do better than you have it (probably closer to $30M). Legends of Guardians and You Again should have massive drops, while Easy A and The Town continue to do well.
I don't think Legend of the Guardians will have a massive drop.
Animated movies/family movies hold well, even if they're shitty, but animated action movies often stumble after the first weekend (How to Train Your Dragon being the rare exception). I know these aren't extremely apt comparisons, but 9, Final Fantasy, Astro Boy all faltered after weak openings. Don't see Owls making much more than $50 million (if it somehow holds extremely well) after all is said and done.
Facebok movie 30.5 BAM
Devil cost an estimated $10 million from what I've read from numerous sources.
I definitely want to see The Social Network. But I live in Puerto Rico, so I have to wait until next Thursday. The big release this week was Wall Street. Yeah, we're behind…
It's funny that Case 39 and Let Me In are getting about the same theater count, considering the reviews have been so bad for Case and very good for Let Me In.
Oh and a shout out to my city, Kansas City. I am not a film festival kind of guy, but we hit the jackpot this year for the Kansas International Film Festival, starting Friday. Films include Black Swan, Jack Goes Boating, 127 Hours, Conviction, and The Girl Who Kicked the Hornets Nest.
http://www.kansasfilm.com/
just saw the social network at an advanced screening. it was incredible. i am a college kid and the buzz on campus is larger than anyone can imagine. professors even talk about it in class.
this will surprise people in a way alice in wonderland, toy story 3 and inception already have this year.
social network: 32.2 Million
1. *The Social Network* – $40.2 million
2. *Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps* – $11.8 million
3. *The Town* – $11.3 million
4. *Let Me In* – $9.9 million
5. *Owl Movie* – $9.4 million
I really wanna see SOCIAL NETWORK, and THE TOWN. Wow, I need to catch up on my movies…
could care less about any of these movies. Why would some of you see these twice? I expect to see very low drops. And the only reason facebook will do good is because of good reviews, and nothing else out there. Prince of Persia is still out on some screens…why not see that again for the first time?
case 39 cos 27million to make according to wikipedia, it has made over 14 mill over seas already. alpha cost 20 million, so should be fine with over seas totals in the end, and devil cost 10 mill to make. so yeah studios make about 55 percent back in the theater time alone so devil made a profit at about 14.5 mil. Dont forget about world wide people! Apprentice has even almost broke even with world wide brought in!!!
55 percent comment from boxofficemojo, and movie totals from there and wikipedia for my last post.
Yes The Town deserves a best pic nod
it's BY accident, not ON accident
1. The Social Network-$22.6 million
2. The Town-$10.2 million
3. Let Me In-$9 million
4. Wall Street 2-$8.7 million
5. Case 39-$7.2 million
I think that The Town is deserving of a nod, at least.
The Social Network, I caught it last night and I was disappointed to say the least. However, it is a good film but it is not the great film that everyone was talking about. It is definitely gonna top the BO.
The Town should hold up nicely and Wall Street 2, I just can't see that holding up at all. It did nicely last week, but I think that's all it had.
Let Me In, wasn't too bad for a remake, I think it has a chance to battle it out with The Town for this weekend, but nowhere near The Social Network.
Legend of the Guardians was awesome. it has classic tale of good versus evil but I think Zack Znyder did a great job with the movie. Everybody in theater enjoyed it and so was I. It was definitely one of the most enjoyable movies I've seen all year and I recommend everyone to see it. It deserves to get recognition and I can't wait to see sequel.
Regards from Indonesia
I'll be interested to see the audience makeup The Social Network. I feel many older people will actively eschew this kind of movie based on experience, because it will take great liberties with what happened and clutter up your mind with "facts" that are wrong and made up. This is why historical fiction is a very minor reading genre. I say read the book or the history that the movie is based on.
Case 39 has got to be one of the worst titles I've come across in terms of letting people who hear it know what the movie is about or even what genre it is. Maybe they should have paid attention to a title like Star Wars. A classic self-explanitory title.
I wish Emma Stone would call me, even by accident :(
Um…Social Network, hard one to predict for. It has an amazing amount of hype, but internet hype almost never equals box office success. Yes, Facebook is one of the most popular websites of all time, but that doesn't mean that all 500 million+ users want to go see a movie about the creation of the website.
Glowing reviews will mean that it'll hold steadily (and if it opens in the 20 million range, it'll surely hit $100 million by the time the Oscar noms come around) It could be somewhere in the high-teens, it could come close or barely exceed $30 milllion, I'm going to split the difference and say $22 million while it holds well for the rest of its run.
1-wall stret 2thetown 3cace39 4devil 5inception
Social Network- 34.3 million CALLED IT!
Let me predict before Friday estimates come in:
$32.0mil for Social Network, with great holds.
$14.5mil for Let Me In.
$5.0mil for Case 39. That's at least more than Christian Alvert's last film "Pandorum."