Comments on: Box-Office Oracle: Nov. 6 – Nov. 8, 2009

By: Chris Jackson

Chris Jackson — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 04:40:51 +0000

This is not The Box Office Oracle!

By: Dan Tralder

Dan Tralder — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 18:07:01 +0000

Thanks Laremy, mfan!

By: mfan

mfan — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 03:19:00 +0000

@Dan Tralder: Specifically, Dan, Go to Box Office Mojo, second column from the left under "theater(date)counts". It's updated thursday afternoons. I probably should have waited to get them, but I wanted to get my prediction in first. I was surprised by a couple of them.

By: Steve

Steve — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 02:11:39 +0000

Does the Box Office matter if New Moon is bad? I remember the first director dropped out because the sequel was on a quick schedule.

By: laremy

laremy — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 02:00:12 +0000

@Dan Tralder: Yeah, generally BOM.

By: John-PT

John-PT — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 23:53:50 +0000

@Jezza: Pirate radio is not a Borat or a Hangover. The movie is good, but not that good. 2012 will also not be a good movie, but is a blockbuster, and a $50M opening is almost garantee, even if falls kick in the next weekends.

By: Jezza

Jezza — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:37:12 +0000

@connor: Don't be so sure on New Moon's open weekend. 100% of the Twilighters are more than likely to be trapped in schools/colleges on the Friday and don't tend to attend evening showtimes. It's also not shown in 3D, something A Christmas Carol has an advantage of. If New Moon is big it would be because Rob Marshall's Nine was postponed to December. My guess is only about $60 million

By: Jezza

Jezza — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:29:53 +0000

@Jonh-PT: Maybe 2012 does have more screens. However it can depend on word of mouth how 2012 performs. Pirate Radio has the chance to expand during November. Nobody expected The Hangover to sink Land of the Lost this summer, and Borat topped the box office one time despite only showing on about 900 screens.

By: connor

connor — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 20:35:16 +0000

this week
christmas carol-$50-well its a christmas movie
next week
2012-$75-it looks good and a lot of people believe 2012 is the end(i dont) and it looks like a blockbuster.
the week after
the twilight saga: new moon-$125-biggest november opening ever, for sure. a lot of people like twighlight. nut will it have a chance of beating transformers 2. i think so.

By: Adam

Adam — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:57:25 +0000

I have a feeling we will be seeing Boondock Saints 2 in that top ten simply because of its cult following. Most people i know, myself included, didnt even know they made a sequel until Monday

By: Dan Tralder

Dan Tralder — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:51:44 +0000

@laremy: Alright, so just BoxOfficeMojo? Some other public site?

By: laremy

laremy — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:58:52 +0000

@Dan Tralder: Nah, I use only publicly available information. I know a few other predictors get tracking from the studio but I find working too closely with the people attempting to make the money is problematic. :)

By: Jonh-PT

Jonh-PT — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:04:48 +0000

@Jezza: Yes i heard, i check out that one in theaters (i live in Portugal). On US that will have just 900 theaters, so yes, 2012 will easily win

By: Gregory

Gregory — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 11:12:59 +0000

1. A Christmas Carol
2. The Men Who Stare at Goats
3. The Box
4. Paranormal Activity
5. Michael Jackson's This Is It
6. The Fourth Kind
7. Where the Wild Things Are
8. Couples Retreat
9. Law Abiding Citizen
10. Cirque Du Freak

I hope that Cirque Du Freak can get some legs so there can be a sequel.

By: Nick

Nick — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:22:38 +0000

1. A Christmas Carol – $43.9 million
2. The Men Who Stare at Goats – $14.6 million
3. Michael Jackson's This Is It – $14.5 million
4. The Box – $11.9 million
5. Paranormal Activity – $10.5 million
6. The Fourth Kind – $10.1 million
7. Law Abiding Citizen – $4.6 million
8. Couples Retreat – $4.4 million
9. Where the Wild Things Are – $3.4 million
10. Amelia – $2.0 million

By: Athar

Athar — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:10:36 +0000

1.) A Christmas Carol – $ 48.1 mil
2.) The Box – $ 19.5 mil
3.) The Fourth Kind – $ 16 mil
4.) The Men Who Stare At Goats – $ 15.5 mil
5.) Paranormal Activity – $ 12 mil
6.) This Is It – $ 10.5 mil
7.) Law Abiding Citizen – $ 4.5 mil
8.) Couples Retreat – $ 3.8 mil
9.) Where The Wild Things Are – $ 2.5 mil
10.) Amelia – $ 2 mil

By: Jezza

Jezza — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 09:04:08 +0000

@Jonh-PT: Don't think 2012 will easily win just yet. Ever heard of The Boat That Rocked also known as Pirate Radio? That will make quite a bit given Richard Curtis' track record of Notting Hill, Four Weddings and a Funeral and Love Actually. Why would 2010 make $50 million+ anyway?

By: Raichu

Raichu — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 06:15:17 +0000

1. A Christmas Carol: 51mil. I'm going out on a limb and go beyond the high end of what pundits are saying.
2. The Box: 13.5mil
3. The Fourth Kind: 11.8mil
4. Paranormal Activity: 10.5mil
5.The Men who stare at Goats: 10.3mil

By: Danny K.

Danny K. — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 05:39:52 +0000

1. A Christmas Carol – $41.1 mil
2. The Men Who Stare at Goats – $15.8 mil
3. The Box – $14.1 mil
4. The Fourth Kind – $11.9 mil
5. Paranormal Activity – $11.5 mil

By: Dan Tralder

Dan Tralder — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 04:01:36 +0000

I added 8% for 3-D, and added 200 theaters I didn't know about, and still came up short for A Christmas Carol. Well, signs point to me looking silly when Sunday rolls around, but I made a promise to make and keep my predictions before I see anyone else's

1. A Christmas Carol – 5.8k / $21.6

2. This Is It – 3.9k / $13.7

3. The Fourth Kind – 5.5k / $13.5

4. The Box – 3.8k / $9.7

5. Paranormal Activity – 3.9k / $9.3

6. The Men… Goats – 3.0k / $6.6

7. Law Abiding Citizen – 1.7k / $4.5

8. Couple's Retreat – 1.4k / $4.1

9. Where the…. Are – 0.8k / $2.9

10. Saw 6 – 0.8 / $2.4

The reason I add the theater average numbers is because that is really my guess, and I don't accurately know the theater counts for non-new releases. How do you get your theater counts, Laremy? A top-secret website, no doubt.

By: JAB

JAB — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 04:00:41 +0000

1. A Christmas Carol
2. The Fourth Kind
3. Paranormal Activity
4. Men Who Stare At Goats
5. The Box
6. This Is It
7. Law Abiding Citizen
8. Couples Retreat
9. Where the Wild Things Are
10. A Serious Man

By: Steve

Steve — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 03:22:39 +0000

"Goats" at 16.8M has to be way too high. "Box" just looks bad, and I saw something just like it on the "New" Twilight Zone in the 1990's and told the whole story in 30 minutes.

By: Joel

Joel — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 02:06:53 +0000

"A Christmas Carol" is terrific; you are spot on, Laremy. It's gonna win BIG TIME. And it deserves it. "The Fourth Kind" is pretty terrible, in my opinion, but, uh, that's only my opinion. It'll do well, despite the dumbness of it all. "Precious" is one of the best films I've seen all year, but it doesn't widely release for couple weeks, so expect SOMETHING to happen with it, I think; sort of a "Slumdog Millionaire" situation, even if "Precious" is better. "The Men Who Stare at Goats" surprised me, actually; I liked it, and I think it will be widely liked as well. Comments on "The Box" tomorrow afternoonish.

By: JM

JM — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 01:41:55 +0000

1. A Christmas Carol (2009)–$33.8mil. Sorry, but this doesn't seem to be tracking much better than "Beowulf" and "The Polar Express." It has mixed reviews, like its predecessors. And, even though it's an instantly recognizable name (once again, like it's predecessors), I don't think it's guaranteed a $40+mil opening like most seem to expect. It may have good holiday holds, though.

2. The Men Who Stare at Goats–$10.7mil. Could do a wee bit more ($13mil), or considerably less ($6mil).

3. The Box –$10.7mil. Could also do a bit more ($15mil) or a lot less ($5mil).

4. Michael Jackson's This Is It–$10.5mil.

5. Paranormal Activity –$9.8mil. Its fantastic holds are over, but it won't fall too heavily because after "The Fourth Kind" there's no horror competition until January.

6. The Fourth Kind–$8.3mil. Looks like a sucker. It could hit $12mil like "Stepfather," or it could fail like the rest of the fall horror releases and only pull $5-6mil. I think its PG-13 rating will buoy it to at least a halfway not-so-embarrassing opening.

7. Law Abiding Citizen –$4.6mil

8. Couples Retreat–$4.4mil

9. Where the Wild Things Are–$2.8mil. It's not a kids' movie. Families have figured that it. it will not hold like a kids' movie.

10. Saw VI–$2.4mil. Were it not dropping 900 theaters, I'd say it would have a chance at a 50% drop, but as things currently stand, a 55-60% drop is more likely.

By: Bram

Bram — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 00:35:42 +0000

1. A Christmas Carol – 41.5 million
2. The Men Who Stare At Goats – 19.1 million
3. The Box – 13.7 million
4. Paranormal Activity – 12.4 million
5. The Fourth Kind – $10.2 million
6. This Is It – $11.2 million
7. Law Abiding Citizen – 4.5 million
8. Couples Retreat – 3.9 million
9. Where The Wild Things Are – 3.1 million
10. Saw VI – 2.4 million

By: m1

m1 — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 00:26:34 +0000

I think A Serious Man and An Education can be dark horses for the #10 spot.

By: Shane-o-Mac

Shane-o-Mac — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 00:17:16 +0000

1. A Christmas Carol 34.4 M
2. The Fourth Kind 14.6 M
3. The Men Who Stare at Goats 12.9 M
4. Paranormal Activity 11.6 M
5. The Box 10.9 M

By: Stephen

Stephen — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 00:08:10 +0000

My money is going to The Box. I am curious to see Richard Kelly's first commercial effort, so to speak.

By: Jonh-PT

Jonh-PT — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 23:42:35 +0000

Big weekend, with the first Christmas Blockbuster hitting theaters. A Christmas Carol have 3700 theaters but i thnks that will not bank. The parents could think that the movie is a little bit scary for is kids, but i think not, at least most of them. The Box, The Men Who Stare At Goats, The Fourth Kind, This is It and Paranormal Activity could all reach second place, so this will be a race.

My prediction
1: A Christmas Carol – $36.7M
2: The Fourth Kind – $13.6M
3: The Box – $12.2M
4: Paranormal Activity – $11.8M
5: This is It – $11.3M
6: The Men Who Stare at Goats – $10.5M

Early next weekend predictions: 2012 to win with $50M!!!!!!!!!

By: mfan

mfan — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 23:41:06 +0000

A Christmas Carol 45.3 grinch did 55
Men Who Stare at Goats 14.2
The Fourth Kind 12.3
The Box 8.8 could surprise me; good cast
Paranormal Activity 7.4 real competion this time
This Is It 6.6 different mehods yielded between 5.4 and 9; one
method yields more: requires theater counts I don' have
Law Abiding Citizen 4.4
Couples Retreat 3.2
WTWTA 2.2
SAW VI 1.8