Box-Office Oracle: Nov. 6 – Nov. 8, 2009
COMMENTS
The top film will bank. No, seriously this time.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week in a Row
First off, an apology that I wasn't here to take my beating after This is It failed so spectacularly (at least domestically). I was doing a bit of traveling and so Brad had to fill in. I'll try not to let it happen again!
Now then, there is plenty in the way of early November precedent for children's movies banking. Madagascar 2 cranked $63m last year. Chicken Little cleared $40m in 2005. Oddly, Christmas Carol isn't technically a kid's film, even though it's rated PG, but no one will know that until Monday. Plus it's getting a monstrous 3,700 theaters. And the 3-D element adds another ten percent to ticket sales. So we're going big, once again, only this time it's going to work.
Estimate: $44.2 million
The problem, if I may be so bold, is that the films coming out right now aren't very good. Certainly not worth demanding people see them. This weekend's slate is more of the same, fatally flawed cinema, but at least this one has an interesting trailer. That will be enough to dupe folks for 72 hours or so.
Estimate: $16.8 million
3. The Box
I haven't seen it, as they are screening it tonight. But I can tell you the "screen it five minutes before it comes out" method is rarely a good sign. The Box looks creepy, but it has huge genre competition in the film right underneath it. You could make a pretty good argument that The Fourth Kind will beat this one straight up, in fact I look forward to you doing so in the comments.
Estimate: $13.2 million
It's strictly a theater count thing. The Box has 100 more. The Fourth Kind is seeking to cash in on the whole "realistic" angle that Paranormal Activity ran with only Paranormal beat them to the punch, and I'm hearing The Fourth Kind isn't as good, which will hurt it.
Estimate: $12.6 million
This is It has been whomping Paranormal Activity Monday through Wednesday. But I expect one more rally from the little low-budget film that could.
Estimate: $11.8 million
It's cleared $111m worldwide cume, they'll need another $100m or so to feel good about the box office haul. And I'd expect a pretty lavish DVD with plenty of "extra" footage to make one last run at a profit fairly soon after the theatrical run. I heard a January DVD rumor, but that could be wrong.
Estimate: $10.7 million
We've entered the "have-nots" portion of the weekend, and even though Law Abiding Citizen has held up pretty well over the past two weeks that bloated $50m production budget probably doomed it from the start. Unless they can muster up a nice overseas run.
Estimate: $4.0 million
It's almost in the exact position as This is It, $111m on a near $70m production budget, only with much less chance for returns in the next two weekends. Why a comedy would need a $70m production budget is beyond me. The Hangover cost $35m, right?
Estimate: $3.3 million
Will this do well internationally? And on DVD? Because Warner Bros. will definitely need big showings on that front to get anywhere near a profit.
Estimate: $2.8 million
10. Saw VI
Amelia could theoretically end up here. Or Boondock II? Let me know your thoughts… and exactly how much I'll be off on the top spot this time.
Estimate: $2.2 million
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A Christmas Carol 45.3 grinch did 55
Men Who Stare at Goats 14.2
The Fourth Kind 12.3
The Box 8.8 could surprise me; good cast
Paranormal Activity 7.4 real competion this time
This Is It 6.6 different mehods yielded between 5.4 and 9; one
method yields more: requires theater counts I don' have
Law Abiding Citizen 4.4
Couples Retreat 3.2
WTWTA 2.2
SAW VI 1.8
Big weekend, with the first Christmas Blockbuster hitting theaters. A Christmas Carol have 3700 theaters but i thnks that will not bank. The parents could think that the movie is a little bit scary for is kids, but i think not, at least most of them. The Box, The Men Who Stare At Goats, The Fourth Kind, This is It and Paranormal Activity could all reach second place, so this will be a race.
My prediction
1: A Christmas Carol – $36.7M
2: The Fourth Kind – $13.6M
3: The Box – $12.2M
4: Paranormal Activity – $11.8M
5: This is It – $11.3M
6: The Men Who Stare at Goats – $10.5M
Early next weekend predictions: 2012 to win with $50M!!!!!!!!!
My money is going to The Box. I am curious to see Richard Kelly's first commercial effort, so to speak.
1. A Christmas Carol 34.4 M
2. The Fourth Kind 14.6 M
3. The Men Who Stare at Goats 12.9 M
4. Paranormal Activity 11.6 M
5. The Box 10.9 M
I think A Serious Man and An Education can be dark horses for the #10 spot.
1. A Christmas Carol – 41.5 million
2. The Men Who Stare At Goats – 19.1 million
3. The Box – 13.7 million
4. Paranormal Activity – 12.4 million
5. The Fourth Kind – $10.2 million
6. This Is It – $11.2 million
7. Law Abiding Citizen – 4.5 million
8. Couples Retreat – 3.9 million
9. Where The Wild Things Are – 3.1 million
10. Saw VI – 2.4 million
1. A Christmas Carol (2009)–$33.8mil. Sorry, but this doesn't seem to be tracking much better than "Beowulf" and "The Polar Express." It has mixed reviews, like its predecessors. And, even though it's an instantly recognizable name (once again, like it's predecessors), I don't think it's guaranteed a $40+mil opening like most seem to expect. It may have good holiday holds, though.
2. The Men Who Stare at Goats–$10.7mil. Could do a wee bit more ($13mil), or considerably less ($6mil).
3. The Box –$10.7mil. Could also do a bit more ($15mil) or a lot less ($5mil).
4. Michael Jackson's This Is It–$10.5mil.
5. Paranormal Activity –$9.8mil. Its fantastic holds are over, but it won't fall too heavily because after "The Fourth Kind" there's no horror competition until January.
6. The Fourth Kind–$8.3mil. Looks like a sucker. It could hit $12mil like "Stepfather," or it could fail like the rest of the fall horror releases and only pull $5-6mil. I think its PG-13 rating will buoy it to at least a halfway not-so-embarrassing opening.
7. Law Abiding Citizen –$4.6mil
8. Couples Retreat–$4.4mil
9. Where the Wild Things Are–$2.8mil. It's not a kids' movie. Families have figured that it. it will not hold like a kids' movie.
10. Saw VI–$2.4mil. Were it not dropping 900 theaters, I'd say it would have a chance at a 50% drop, but as things currently stand, a 55-60% drop is more likely.
"A Christmas Carol" is terrific; you are spot on, Laremy. It's gonna win BIG TIME. And it deserves it. "The Fourth Kind" is pretty terrible, in my opinion, but, uh, that's only my opinion. It'll do well, despite the dumbness of it all. "Precious" is one of the best films I've seen all year, but it doesn't widely release for couple weeks, so expect SOMETHING to happen with it, I think; sort of a "Slumdog Millionaire" situation, even if "Precious" is better. "The Men Who Stare at Goats" surprised me, actually; I liked it, and I think it will be widely liked as well. Comments on "The Box" tomorrow afternoonish.
"Goats" at 16.8M has to be way too high. "Box" just looks bad, and I saw something just like it on the "New" Twilight Zone in the 1990's and told the whole story in 30 minutes.
1. A Christmas Carol
2. The Fourth Kind
3. Paranormal Activity
4. Men Who Stare At Goats
5. The Box
6. This Is It
7. Law Abiding Citizen
8. Couples Retreat
9. Where the Wild Things Are
10. A Serious Man
I added 8% for 3-D, and added 200 theaters I didn't know about, and still came up short for A Christmas Carol. Well, signs point to me looking silly when Sunday rolls around, but I made a promise to make and keep my predictions before I see anyone else's
1. A Christmas Carol – 5.8k / $21.6
2. This Is It – 3.9k / $13.7
3. The Fourth Kind – 5.5k / $13.5
4. The Box – 3.8k / $9.7
5. Paranormal Activity – 3.9k / $9.3
6. The Men… Goats – 3.0k / $6.6
7. Law Abiding Citizen – 1.7k / $4.5
8. Couple's Retreat – 1.4k / $4.1
9. Where the…. Are – 0.8k / $2.9
10. Saw 6 – 0.8 / $2.4
The reason I add the theater average numbers is because that is really my guess, and I don't accurately know the theater counts for non-new releases. How do you get your theater counts, Laremy? A top-secret website, no doubt.
1. A Christmas Carol – $41.1 mil
2. The Men Who Stare at Goats – $15.8 mil
3. The Box – $14.1 mil
4. The Fourth Kind – $11.9 mil
5. Paranormal Activity – $11.5 mil
1. A Christmas Carol: 51mil. I'm going out on a limb and go beyond the high end of what pundits are saying.
2. The Box: 13.5mil
3. The Fourth Kind: 11.8mil
4. Paranormal Activity: 10.5mil
5.The Men who stare at Goats: 10.3mil
@Jonh-PT:
Don't think 2012 will easily win just yet. Ever heard of The Boat That Rocked also known as Pirate Radio? That will make quite a bit given Richard Curtis' track record of Notting Hill, Four Weddings and a Funeral and Love Actually. Why would 2010 make $50 million+ anyway?
1.) A Christmas Carol – $ 48.1 mil
2.) The Box – $ 19.5 mil
3.) The Fourth Kind – $ 16 mil
4.) The Men Who Stare At Goats – $ 15.5 mil
5.) Paranormal Activity – $ 12 mil
6.) This Is It – $ 10.5 mil
7.) Law Abiding Citizen – $ 4.5 mil
8.) Couples Retreat – $ 3.8 mil
9.) Where The Wild Things Are – $ 2.5 mil
10.) Amelia – $ 2 mil
1. A Christmas Carol – $43.9 million
2. The Men Who Stare at Goats – $14.6 million
3. Michael Jackson's This Is It – $14.5 million
4. The Box – $11.9 million
5. Paranormal Activity – $10.5 million
6. The Fourth Kind – $10.1 million
7. Law Abiding Citizen – $4.6 million
8. Couples Retreat – $4.4 million
9. Where the Wild Things Are – $3.4 million
10. Amelia – $2.0 million
1. A Christmas Carol
2. The Men Who Stare at Goats
3. The Box
4. Paranormal Activity
5. Michael Jackson's This Is It
6. The Fourth Kind
7. Where the Wild Things Are
8. Couples Retreat
9. Law Abiding Citizen
10. Cirque Du Freak
I hope that Cirque Du Freak can get some legs so there can be a sequel.
@Jezza: Yes i heard, i check out that one in theaters (i live in Portugal). On US that will have just 900 theaters, so yes, 2012 will easily win
@Dan Tralder: Nah, I use only publicly available information. I know a few other predictors get tracking from the studio but I find working too closely with the people attempting to make the money is problematic. :)
@laremy: Alright, so just BoxOfficeMojo? Some other public site?
I have a feeling we will be seeing Boondock Saints 2 in that top ten simply because of its cult following. Most people i know, myself included, didnt even know they made a sequel until Monday
this week
christmas carol-$50-well its a christmas movie
next week
2012-$75-it looks good and a lot of people believe 2012 is the end(i dont) and it looks like a blockbuster.
the week after
the twilight saga: new moon-$125-biggest november opening ever, for sure. a lot of people like twighlight. nut will it have a chance of beating transformers 2. i think so.
@Jonh-PT:
Maybe 2012 does have more screens. However it can depend on word of mouth how 2012 performs. Pirate Radio has the chance to expand during November. Nobody expected The Hangover to sink Land of the Lost this summer, and Borat topped the box office one time despite only showing on about 900 screens.
@connor: Don't be so sure on New Moon's open weekend.
100% of the Twilighters are more than likely to be trapped in schools/colleges on the Friday and don't tend to attend evening showtimes. It's also not shown in 3D, something A Christmas Carol has an advantage of. If New Moon is big it would be because Rob Marshall's Nine was postponed to December.
My guess is only about $60 million
@Jezza: Pirate radio is not a Borat or a Hangover. The movie is good, but not that good. 2012 will also not be a good movie, but is a blockbuster, and a $50M opening is almost garantee, even if falls kick in the next weekends.
@Dan Tralder: Yeah, generally BOM.
Does the Box Office matter if New Moon is bad? I remember the first director dropped out because the sequel was on a quick schedule.
@Dan Tralder: Specifically, Dan, Go to Box Office Mojo, second column from the left under "theater(date)counts". It's updated thursday afternoons. I probably should have waited to get them, but I wanted to get my prediction in first. I was surprised by a couple of them.
Thanks Laremy, mfan!
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