Box-Office Oracle: Nov. 5 – Nov. 7, 2010
COMMENTS
We'll take Megamind for the win!
I'll take the animation at the top of the charts, fending off Due Date and For Colored Girls. It's partly a theater count consideration, but mostly it's due to the demographic reach of Megamind, which is far more than comedy or drama. Let's break this thing down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
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| I'm looking at a per theater number somewhere in between Despicable Me and Bee Movie here. The first example for the tone, the second for the time of year. As such, Megamind should cruise to an easy victory. Another reason? It's been sixteen weekends since a children's film took the crown, and the market is now officially ready to support animation. It's the same theory that allowed the flawed Christmas Carol to triumph last year. Add in 3-D ticket premiums and you've got yourself a winning combination. Prediction: $42 million | |
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2. Due Date
An interesting attempt, but it won't generate much word of mouth. I look for it to do a little better than 50 percent of Hangover's opening per theater number.
Prediction: $26.84 million
$8,000 per theater, not shabby, and it's interesting to note this is going wide right from the outset, unlike last year's adaptation, Precious.
Prediction: $17.01 million
4. Saw 3D
A 55 percent drop at the box office, keep the change. The Saw franchise is somewhat back! Okay, that's not very definitive, sorry, the verdict is still out.
Prediction: $10.14 million
It will drop less than Saw 3D, but it's also starting way lower.
Prediction: $7.76 million
6. Red
Red has held on nicely, but $76m on a $58m budget still isn't paying the bills. Maybe a nice DVD treatment will do the trick?
Prediction: $7.65 million
7. Jackass 3D
I'm advocating that the Jackass and Paranormal franchises combine powers to form one inexpensive (but profitable) superpower.
Prediction: $3.74 million
9. Secretariat
The very best holdover of the weekend, just like Secretariat himself.
Prediction: $3.16 million
Could be challenged by Life as We Know It for the tenth spot.
Prediction: $1.97 million
How say you? Do I have the order all wrong again? Are my dollars and cents flawed? Weigh in now, Brad will be back on Sunday to wrap us up!
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Megamind-$48.3 million
Due Date-$28.7 million
For Colored Girls-$17 million
Saw 3D- $8.7 million
Paranormal Activity 2- $8.2
Megamind – 46.7M
Due Date – 31.2M
For Colored Girls – 25.4M
Saw 3D – 7.8M
Paranormal Activity – 7.4M
"It's the same theory that allowed the flawed CHRISTMAS STORY to triumph last year."
uh…don't you mean The Christmas "CAROL"?
Ha ha. Flawed and forgotten… I fixed it.
What about Conviction? It goes wide this weekend.
Maybe around $1 million. Not enough to make the top ten. The real question is will Fox Searchlight ever work with Hilary Swank again after losing over $50 million on Amelia and a few million on Conviction?
Amelia only cost about $40 million to make and it got back 1/4 of it's budget.
I was thinking they spent $20-$30 mil promoting it.
It went wide last weekend, this one it just adds a hundred more theaters.
Technically, it didn't. A 'wide release' is classified as 600+ theaters.
I haven't had time to try and think about the numbers really so these are just pretty much top of the head here.
1 – Megamind ($43.5 million). Whether it's strictly 'good' or not I think out of a big animation option and anything else you have to give the edge to the 'toon. Doesn't always pan out but likely will here.
2 – Due Date ($35.7 million). I think this may do better than expected. A broad comedy, RDJ starring, and Halloween is over so the horrors are not prime fodder. Add in the fact that the other major releases have been out for weeks and it may benefit from being the first outright comedy for a while and being new.
3 – For Coloured Girld (14.3 million). Tyler Perry ain't my thing, but should be good for third.
4 – Saw 3D ($9.2 million). It saved face for the franchise last weekend but now it will plummet.
5 – PA2 ($6 million). It's done it's job, doesn't need to pass $100 million to be a hit for Paramount. PA3 – see ya next year.
The rest of the top ten won't be anything special but slow drops for Red and TSN should continue at least.
1. Due Date – 35.5 million
2. Megamind – 33.2 million
3. Saw 3D – 10.3 million
4. For Colored Girls – 7.4 million
5. PA2 – 6 million
Megamind $38.5mil
Due Date $34.3mil I think you're underestimating the combined draw of RDJ, Zach Galifanakis and "the director of the Hangover"
For Colored Girls $13.5mil just dont see the same attraction towards it compared to his other movies.
Saw 3D $9.7mil
Paranormal Activity $8
Why would Saw drop 55% when Saw 3-6 all had drops in the 62-68% range?
My theory is that the lesser opening leaves it less susceptible to a massive bleed.
Well history proved that theory wrong a lot of times
1. Megamind – $50.6M I agree with Laremy's reason, but I see it going just a hair bigger than that. The family film market has been pretty dead, so I give it a slight bump for that.
2. Due Date – $33.2M The reviews have not been killing it, but I see it doing it well. I think the combo of RDJr. and ZG on top of The Hangover audience and it should get enough people out for curiosity. And when was the last time we saw this many R rated films in the top ten.
3. For Colored Girls – $21M The reviews are atrocious, but I think it will get to $10,000 just from the urban audiences that have helped his other films.
4. Saw 3-D – $9.2M
5. Red – $7.8M
6. PA2 – $7.1M
1. MEGAMIND – $48.6 million
2. DUE DATE – $36.5 million
3. FOR COLORED GIRLS – $22.8 million
4. SAW – $8.6 million
5. PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 2 – $7.1 million
I'll be seein' Megamind and Due Date this weekend.
Have a good weekend everyone! Holiday movie season is here! :)
Hmm… I'll be risking and bettin' big this weekend.
1: *MEGAMIND* – $55.6 MILLION
2: *DUE DATE* – $42.8 MILLION
3: *FOR COLORED GIRLS* – $21.2 MILLION
4: *SAW 3D* – $7.6 MILLION
5: *PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 2* – $6.7 MILLION
=)
1. Due Date – 38.5 million
2. Megamind – 35.7 million
3. For Colored Girls – 11.4 million
4. Saw 3D – 8.1 million
5. PA2 – 7.2 million
6. RED – 6.6 million
7. Jackass 3 – 4.4 million
8. Hereafter – 4.2 million
9. Conviction – 3.3 million
10. Secretariat – 2.7 million
1. Megamind – $56.3 million. The tone here is much closer to Monsters Vs. Aliens than Despicable Me.
2. Due Date – $43.7 million. Bigger excitement here than what's been predicted.
3. For Colored Girls – $16.8 million
4. Saw 3D: The Final Chapter – $7.9 million. Big ol' drop here.
5. Red – $7.7 million
6. Paranormal Activity 2 – $6.9 million. By this point, anyone still interested will wait for DVD.
7. Hereafter – $3.6 million
8. Secretariat – $3.3 million
9. Jackass 3D – $3.1 million
10. The Social Network – $2.1 million
It's funny Robert Downey Jr. is going up against MegeMind this weekend. Wasn't he slated to be one of the voices in that?
Nope!
Ummm… pretty sure he was, back when it was called OoberMind.
1. Megamind $53.2 million
2. Due Date $35.8 million
3. For Colored Girls $20.3 million
4. Saw 3D $7.5 million
5. Red $6.9 million
I think parents have been waiting awhile for a comedy like Megamind, so it has potential to hit $60M+ so I will go with $60M. It is being released at a perfect time.
1. "Megamind" – $68.5 million
2. "Due Date" – $47.8 million
3. "For Colored Girls" – $25.4 million
4. "Paranormal Activity 2" – $6.8 million
5. "Saw 3D" – $6.5 million
wait, isnt 127 Hours going wide? i don't think it would flop.
nah, only 4 theaters.
1. Megamind- $56 million
2. Due Date- $38.4 million
3. For Colored Girls- $25.2
4. Red- $8.2 million
5. Saw 3D- $7.7 million
6. Paranormal Activity- $7.1 million
7. Jackass 3D- $4 million
8. Hereafter- $3.9 million
9. Secretariat- $3.5 million
10. The Social Network- $2.6 million
1. Megamind, $67 million. Hard to tell with this one, but I'm just going to go big and see what happens. This is a $17,000 PTA; Despicable Me did $16,200 but with much more recent and tough competition (Toy Story). Also Madagascar 2 did $15,000 on this weekend two years ago so the time of year precedent is there.
2. Due Date, $33.5 million. I'm not too sure on this one either, so I'm just giving it a $10,000 PTA and calling it a day. I'm going to see this tomorrow despite the poor reviews, but I don't have much hope for it.
3. For Colored Girls, $17 million. As best as I can tell, TP has only done two straight dramas: The Family That Preys and I Can Do Bad. I haven't seen any of his films so don't quote me on that. I'm going a bit below the PTA of The Family That Preys, because I figure the R rating has got to hurt it some.
4. Red, $7.5 million. Will this continue to hold up well?
5. Saw VII, $6.8 million. These films benefit from Halloween; now that it's over, this will plunge. I have it falling 70%.
6. Paranormal Activity 2, $6.6 million. I've got this falling another 60%, same as last weekend. The Halloween factor still applies because unlike the first film, this has played like a normal horror film.
7. Jackass 3, $3.4 million. Another 60% drop, but this film has been a gravy train for almost three weeks now.
8. Hereafter, $3.8 million. A bit better of a hold than last weekend.
9. Secretariat, $3.5 million.
10. The Social Network, $2.7 million.
1. MegaMind- $50 million…… I'm aiming big!
2. Due Date- $25 million
3. Saw 3D- $12 million
4. For Colored Girls- $10 million
5. Paranormal Activity 2- $7 million
6. Red- $6 million
7. Jackass 3D- $4 million
8. Secretariat- $3.5 million
9. Hereafter- $2.7 million
10. The Social Network- $2.5 million
1.) Megamind – $ 37.5 mil
2.) Due Date – $ 31.6 mil
3.) For Colored Girls – $ 23.5 mil
4.) Saw 3D – $ 12.5 mil
5.) Red – $ 9 mil
6.) Paranormal Activity 2 – $ 8 mil
1.Megamind – $48.5M
2.Due Date – $35.6M
3.For Colored Girls – $27.4M
4.Saw 3D – $7.6M
5.Red – $7.1M
6.Paranormal Activity 2 – $6.7M