Box-Office Oracle: Nov. 27 – Nov. 29, 2009
COMMENTS
New Moon again, in a route.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 4 Weeks in a Row
Twilight fell 62 percent. I've got this version falling 57.5 percent, an improvement, but still highly frontloaded. New Moon is being greatly helped this weekend by the overall lack of competition.
Estimate: $61.0 million
2. Old Dogs
The consensus here seems to be "why?" I'll tell you why. Because it worked once before (Wild Hogs), so they figure it will work again. If this cracks $30m you should pretty much prepare yourself for Bold Clogs.
Estimate: $23.0 million
It had a very quiet weekend, even though it should have been a major storyline because it outperformed every prediction. After this weekend it should be near the $60m mark domestically, and as the production budget was only $29m they are looking pretty solid here.
Estimate: $19.1 million
4. 2012
$461m worldwide cume, Sony can thank the international audiences for saving their bacon.
Estimate: $12.0 million
Odd timing. Does Thanksgiving weekend really lend itself to extreme violence and ninjas? It's like they've attended my family gatherings!
Estimate: $11.3 million
If I could implore you to see one film it would be this one. Unless you hate Wes Anderson. Then I suppose you're off the hook. But everyone else really needs to see it, it's quite good. I'll probably catch it again on Friday with Brad.
Estimate: $10.4 million
I can't figure out why they haven't taken this wide yet. Was this only about grabbing an Oscar nom and forsaking the theatrical run?
Estimate: $7.6 million
They are going to need a huge international take for this not to be considered a financial disaster.
Estimate: $6.2 million
9. Planet 51
Didn't have the advertising budget to mount anything nearing a serious run. It's always interesting to see what Hollwyood produces… and then immediately discards.
Estimate: $5.9 million
10. The Road
The Road is only getting 88 theaters. And it's entirely bleak. But so many of the bottom feeders lost substantial theater counts that it feels like this one will slip into the tenth slot.
Estimate: $1.2 million
How say you? Will New Moon actually bleed faster than Twilight? Any theories on why Precious isn't spreading faster? And what do you make of Old Dogs? I'm off to eat something with gravy on it, but thanks for reading and I hope you'll lend me your insight.
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"the road" because i LOVE the book and Viggo
1.) New Moon – $ 57.5 mil
2.) The Blind Side – $ 23 mil
3.) Old Dogs – $ 18.5 mil
4.) 2012 – $ 16 mil
5.) Ninja Assassin – $ 14.5 mil
6.) The Fantastic Mr. Fox – $ 9.5 mil
7.) Precious – $ 7.8 mil
8.) A Christmas Carol – $ 7 mil
9.) Planet 51 – $ 6.5 mil
10.) The Men Who Stare At Goats – $ 1.8 mil
I sense 2012 and A Christmas Carol having great legs.
New Moon's fan base went full front and as a result New Moon will burn out.
A Christmas Carol hasn't lost it's 3D screens yet
2012 only dropped when New Moon debuted, and because New Moon was full front, 2012 will leapfrog it.
New Moons made an additional 20 million since Sunday. I have a feeling that 70 million is a better prediction for it's weekend gross.
1. New Moon- $48.4 million: It will stay on top probably until Did You Hear About The Morgans? but I'm betting a around a 65% drop because of the demographic being spilt in so many different places.
2. Old Dogs- $37.3 million: Hope I'm wrong but for some reason families don't seem as excited for Fantastic Mr. Fox.
3. The Blind Side- $26.6 million: Don't see it getting a big drop because of WOM and the fact its not terrible.
4. Ninja Assassin- $15.8 million: The Ninja loving audience is starving right now.
5. 2012- $13.2 million: People love their explosions and wrecking sh*t.
New Moon will fall big, very very big, but will still win. Old Dogs looks to fail miserably. The Blind Side could surprise with a +$30M again and 2012 will gain some legs.
My Predictions (3-days):
1: New Moon – $46.8M
2: The Blind Side – $26.3M
3: Old Dogs – $20.8M
4: 2012 – $17.7M
5: A Christmas Carol – $11.9M
Early Next Weekend Predictions: New Moon to do three in a row win, the first of the year. Will win with $25M.
Precious is fine. Just look how long it took "Slumdog Millionaire" to spread–for-fricking-ever!
1. Old Dogs- I hope not, but better than New Moon.
2. New Moon- Drop, please!
3. The Blind Side-
4. Fantastic Mr. Fox- Loved this movie, wish it would be #1
5. 2012- Really liked this movie, want it to do well.
6. Ninja Assassin
7. Precious: Based on the Blah Blah Blah Blah- I'm not racist. Just because I won't see this movie doesn't mean I'm racist, I just like movies that are fun or exciting or uplifting or funny, not boring and depressing.
8. A Christmas Carol- Good movie, hope it does better
9. Planet 51
10. The Road- Good book, haven't seen the movie yet, no one will.
In a perfect world, Fantastic Mr. Fox would be at #1, 2012 drop less quickly, and no one would see New Moon. Unfortunately, that's not what will happen.
New Moon will do at least $85 million over Thanksgiving. Lots of people are going to see it again or for the first time
1.New Moon-$66.9
2.Old Dogs-$41.2
3.2012-$29.3
4.The Blind Side-$17.8
5.Ninja Assassin-$16.8
6.A Christmas Carol-$13.4
7.Fantastic Mr.Fox-$10.7
8.Planet 51-$7.1
9.The Road-$5.5
10.Precious-$1.1
new moon 57 million
the blind side 24 million
2012 17.5 million
old dogs 14 million
a christmas carol 11.5 million
1.New Moon $55 million about what it needs to keep it on track to $391m
2.The Blind Side $28.3 million in line with my 'this is somewhat like Forrest Gump' faith
If Old dogs had no competition I would give it $28.4 but it does, so I'll agree with Laremy. Plus, while humor works over Thanksgiving, will non-Xmas stupid humor? This is a somewhat highly anticipated title, but I feel any surprises will be on the downside.
No way New Moon is gonna fall less than 60%. The gigantic start of last week just won't let it. Yes, there're a lot of die-hard fans who wanted to see the movie more than once; what you don't know is that they have already done that, why do you think the movie made 142 million in it's first 3 days?
For the friday-sunday period:
1.- New Moon: 52.5 million
2.- Blind Side: 26.2 million
3.- Old Dogs: 25.1 million
4.- 20212: 16.8 million
5.- A Christmas Carol: 12.0 million
New Moon's gonna take it with $65M, then Blind Side will cross 100M next week.
2012 may end at $165M
Blind Side beats Old Dogs for sure! switch those #2 and #3 spots Laremy.
01) New Moon – 64.4 M
02) The Blind Side – 21.1 M
03) Old Dogs – 18.6 M
04) 2012 – 14.2 M
05) Fantastic Mr. Fox – 11.4 M
Separate numbers for New Moon each day:
Wednesday: 14M (it's a fact)
Thursday: 14M
Friday: 21M
Saturday: 20M
Sunday: 11M
Three day period: 52M
Five day period: 80M
Ten day period: 245M
Predicted final gross: Somewhere between 330-360M.
It will, unfortunately, definetely beat HP6 =(
1.) New Moon – $50.1m
2.) Old Dogs – $32.6m
3.) The Blind Side – $21.4m
4.) 2012 – $15.3
5.) Ninja Assassin – $14.1m
6.) The Fantastic Mr. Fox – $9.5m
7.) A Christmas Carol – $8.6m
8.) Precious: Insert Stupid Subtitle that I Refuse to Type Out – $7.2m
9.) Planet 51 – $5.3m
10.) The Men Who Stare at Goats / The Road – $1.5m
I just got back from a packed screening of Ninja Assassin. When I saw the trailer, my expectations were moderately optimistic but MAN was it balls-to-the-wall. If you took the badass warrior aspects of 300 (and replaced the Spartans with ninjas), the gallons of CGI blood from Rambo 4, and multiplied by 5, you'd get Ninja Assassin. Even if the film is wildly absurd and corny at times, it remains a mandatory viewing for any action fan.
Another hard-R action movie that came out around you guys' Thanksgiving was Hitman, a film that actually deserved the beating the critics gave it, yet it apparently made enough money for them to green-light the sequel.
My city got The Road, so hopefully checking that out Sunday.
By the way, Laremy: This week I was doing a textbook reading for my History of World Cinema class (I'm a second year Film major) and I found another source to confirm this:
"Big budgets carry big risks; a $100-million movie has to gross $250 million worldwide to break even Yet most films lose money in theatrical release, and many of those – perhaps 60 percent – were financial disasters."
So there it is, what we keep hearing: two and a half times the budget (not including marketing) to break even. Good luck with that, Avatar.
1. New Moon – $41.7 million (yah I'm a pessimist)
2. Old Dogs – $31.9 million
3. The Blind Side – $25.9 million
4. 2012 – $20.1 million
5. Ninja Assassin – $13.4 million
6. A Christmas Carol – $12.8 million
7. Planet 51 – $12.4 million
8. The Fantastic Mr. Fox – $11.2 million
9. Precious – $7.3 million
10. The Men Who Stare at Goats – $1.7 million
@Jacob: New Moon will definetly drop big time. Chistmas is getting closer. The advice was to see A Christmas Carol near christmas. Come Decembertime and Christmas Carol will leapfrog New Moon. Watch and learn Jacob Marley.
I think New Moon will drop as hard as Spider-Man 3.
So something around $55 million is ok, for me.
But Thanksgiving will put it's total real high, so maybe it can reach $250 million by the end of the holiday?
Yeah. This sounds crazy, but at the beginning of the week, I had Old Dogs at #1 w/$87.5 million. Then the bad reviews came in…
1.New Moon-$70.4* (-50%)
2.Old Dogs-$40.3 (N/A)
3.The Blind Side-$26.2 (-23%)
4.Precious-$14 (+21%)
5.Fantastic Mr. Fox-$12.5 (+6,479%)
6.2012-$23.7 (-11%)
7.Ninja Assassin-$8.5 (N/A)
8.A Christ Carol-$8.3 (-35%)
9.Planet 51-$6.3 (-50%)
10.The Road-$5.2 (N/A)
Here's a revised copy of the % of change list.
1.New Moon-(-51%)
2.Old Dogs-(N/A)
3.The Blind Side-(-23%)
4.Precious-(+29%)
5.Fantastic Mr. Fox-(+6,059%)
6.2012-(-10%)
7.Ninja Assassin-(N/A)
8.A Christ Carol-(-32%)
9.Planet 51-(-48%)
10.The Road-(N/A)
My guess:
New Moon: $60M
Blind Side: $30M
Old Dogs: $20M
2012: $15M
Christmas Carol: $13M
Ninja Assassin: $12M
Precious: $10M
Fantastic Mr. Fox: $7M
Planet 51: $7M
Men/Goats: $1.5M
I'm not sure why, but I do really like Sandra Bullock, so I'm expecting The Blind Side to get a double opening weekend (similar to Bolt last year). Based on the weekday performances, I'm guessing that this movie will have a minimal (if not inverted) weekend-to-weekend drop.
@Eli: Maybe they are doing the right thing to release Ninja Assassin when there will be no other competition so the people seeing it have time to evaluate it fairly. Transporter also made enough for a sequel, though their budget was half of NA's. It's a conservative move though. A much worse "holiday" release will be Brothers. Have you seen the trailer? I can't freaking believe they released this around Xmas. Are we supposed to feel better because our family is not as messed up as theirs?
To be fair to Avatar, think about it. Won't every single Harry Potter fan go to this movie? I'm thinking every single Watchman fan will. Won't most Transformers fans? Veritably all TDK fans? Etc., etc. I don't see why it can't eventually make $1.5 billion, especially if it has lot's of action. International audience like action better so they can follow the story more easily. (Even George of the Jungle: look he ran into that tree! Ha!) I'm thinking of seeing Avatar in 2D and then 3D to check whether Roger Ebert has a point about 3D being distracting to the story. And I'm not even super stoked about it.
These are all 3-day predictions (sorry so late, but I think I still got in before Wednesday's numbers came in, so I think I'm ok)
1. New Moon – 54.5
2. Blind Side – 19.6
3. 2012 – 14.4
4. Old Dogs – 14.4
5. Ninjas Assassin – 11.3
6. Precious – 8.6
7. Planet 51 – 7.0
8. Fantastic Mr. Fox – 6.9
9. Christmas Carol – 6.0
10. The Road – 1.2
11. Men Who Stare – 0.9
I think parents are going to hear about how bad Old Dogs is, and take their kids to Christmas Carol or Planet 51 instead. I feel very uncertain about my Ninja prediction, though
@Dan Tralder: Nevermind! It's the exact same as Laremy's, ha. I know you all think my Mr. Fox number is low, but I think adults are going to think it's for kids, and kids will look at the stop-motion and say no-way.
Update: The Blind Side is already at $60 million BEFORE the weekend. I don't know if it can match Forrest Gump's $329 million, but I'm thinking it's going to pass The Hangover's $277 million. WOW!!!
@mfan: You have no idea what the fuck you are talking about. Blind Side doesn't have a chance of beating the Hangovers gross. It could probably crack the 200 million mark and maybe reach 250 but it certainly won't reach the grosses of the films you just mentioned.
@Colin: Damn! I think Blind Side's gonna take this weekend! It already led on Thursday, I guess it could go all the way up to $50, and the rest depends on New Moon's drop if they reach number 1.
@Colin: Why not?
Apparantly, suggesting others can compete with peoples sacred totems leads to anger. The Hangover was the champion for the 'R' rated crowd; The Blind Side is the new champion for the PG-13 crowd. Who do you think is going to win?
It doesn't lead me to anger, it just dumbfounds me that you brought up two other films that can't even be compared to blind side. As for the Hangover getting beaten by Blind Side, the reason it won't happen is because Blind Side will have more to compete with over the holiday season than the Hangover did this past summer had and it has already had slower start then the Hangover did. Oh and if you want to talk about "champions" among different crowds based on ratings, which is really short-sigthed to categorize an entire audience based off of rating and not by the genre or the nature of the film itself, technically there are about 3 other films this year that are "champions" of that same rating and in order for Blind side to be that "champion" it would have to gross more than 400 million dollars domestically in order to do it. Or does it have a shot at doing that too?
New moon 67.2
Blind Side 42.5
2012 27.6
Old Dogs 17.5
Fantastic Mr Fox 15.2
@mfan: Sorry but what does other fan bases have to do with how much money Avatar is going to make? I don't see the connection what so ever.
@John Debono: The reason scientific polling with representative samples works is due to profiling. Like it or not, people can be put into categories. I would venture to say that if you polled women who saw the last Nicholas Sparks film, very few would say they plan to see Avatar. Ditto, Retirees and maybe even ballroom dancers. But Nicholas Sparks fans, retirees, and ballroom dancers did not power The Dark Night, Harry Potter, or The Lord of the Rings to their box office highs. I belive most of the people who loved those films will give Avatar a chance. But probably not women's bowling leagues, or people who dislike Science Fiction/Fantasy.
@Colin: This is a box office predicton site. I don't think I'm known for pie in the sky high predictions. I try to be realistic given what I believe might be true. Who predicted The Hangover would go to $277 million? I only know one site that predicted The Hangover would be a sleeper hit, but even they only estimated a $70 million gross. So now we have a film that I recognized right away was special in as much I believe there is a big underserved market for this kind of film. That is, a mainstream, inspirational, serious effort by Hollywood as shown by it's star power (Sandra Bullock and Tim McGraw). There hasn't been ANY movie like this out since Forrest Gump, so to talk about it's competition is crazy. Yes, there have been some inspirational films, but where was the star power like Tom Hanks? Where were the top notch stories/scripts? Compared to this movie, Ice Castles, for example, is like a home video. The Hangover comparison is due to that movies long run at the box office due to it's small drops. I believe a certain percentage of the population is going to see this movie, period. The result will be small drops at the box office, but that will not be the cause. This movie is not going to succeed because of small drops. Rather, it will have small drops as a sign of it's success. I tagged it to meet or exceed The Hangover because most people agree a less exclusive rating equals more box office potential. I also singled out The Hangover because there was no consensus as to the reason for it's success. I believe people got behind that movie and it became a sort of champion for an audience who hadn't had a successful 'R' rated movie for a while. Don't you remember all the buzz about "the 'R' rated movie is dead"? That proved to be wrong. The other high grossing films I think you have in mind were successful for other reasons, but what you say is not too much of a stretch. I'm thinking $270-$320 for The Blind Side. Oh, you are correct to point out The Hangover had a bigger opening weekend. I only commited to my prediction after seeing wednesday's and thursday's TBS estimates, and decided it's relatively slow start was not going to matter. Remember, New Moon only really surprise people once. TBS has surprised people three times already. See the above box office estimate from Laremy. Finally, I can understand if I come off as some kind of whacked, optimistic, crazy person. But it's not my fault that we had two films that are going to rock the box office at the same time. I can only call them as I see them. Thanks.
Thank God for St Trinians 2: The Legend of Fritton's Gold. It comes out in the UK on 18th December. Looks better than that Avatar bullsh#t.
Would you rather see naughty school girls of 6 foot smurfs?
Action films do better in the U.S. and internationally all of the time. That's because most people who rather not fall asleep in the theatre (though sometimes because it's so dark it can make you sleeper anyway), but watch how cool special effects and ass-kicking looks on the big screen.
@Seiko: I agree, but I've also been to a number of movies with people who have limited english skills. Even the girls prefer action movies. I knew 2012 would do well internationally for that reason. Even without subtitles, the film is not too hard to follow. But I think it's actually setting a record for worldwide/domestic gross for a major film. I wonder how a silent movie would do?
@Seiko: I was referring to young lads who would probably fancy some of the posh totties.