Box-Office Oracle: Nov. 24 – Nov. 28, 2010
Harry Potter will win big. But how many films will thrive over Turkey weekend?
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| Still the biggest dip on the board, but only a 33 percent drop. This number will help it cross the $200m mark domestically, a number it has already hit internationally. Need more good news? Deathly Hallows – Part 1 made $16.1 million globally in IMAX theatres, a new record. You wanted records broken? You got records broken! As for the film itself, I liked it more than Brad did. But that's okay, variety is the spice of life, one thing we can all be thankful for is our massive access to divergent opinions. Even the folks who call me crazy and say "Movie X will make a jillion dollars!" get a pass from me this time of year. Even when the film falls way short of their mark. Call me sentimental… or even crazy. Will this be the biggest Potter earner ever? With a budget that has to be north of $200m that's precisely what Warner Bros is betting on. Prediction: $83.76 million | |
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How say you? Are any of my calls completely outlandish? What are you thankful for this holiday weekend? Any doors gonna be busted? Comment away, comment often, and comment with pride – Brad will be with you on Sunday to recap where I had it right, and where I went all wrong.
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Tangled-im gonna go higher with this and put it at 60 million. ppl need a princess whos computer animated
Love and other drugs-no one i talk to has even heard of it and die hard movie fans saw it at advanced screenings-7 million
Burlesque-going lower for this but not quite sure, will have to see-14million
Faster-I really hope this will bomb and the demo will see harry potter again-9 million
Harry Potter 7 – 77.4M
Tangled – 40.2M
Burlesque – 22.5M
Megamind – 16.9M
Faster – 13.6M
Love and Other Drugs – 13.1M
Unstoppable – 12.4M
Due Date – 8.9M
The Next 3 Days – 6.1M
Morning Glory – 3.8M
I've adjusted my figures from yesterday but I think it's gonna be a close race between Burlesque and Faster.
Potter – 65 mil
Tangled – 40.5 mil
Burlesque – 20.5 mil
Faster – 20.1 mil
Megamind – 15.2 mil
L&O Drugs – 13 mil
No way Faster makes anywhere near that much money.
That's your prediction? lol, I don't know. It could. People gotta watch something when they go to the movies.
It's not really tracking that well but I think people will find it. It's the only real alternative to films that are family/women aimed.
1. Harry Potter 7 – 81.4M (Very good Harry potter movie. WIll hold up nicely)
2. Tangled – 27.7M (looks absolutely horrendous.)
3. Faster – 18.6M ( i think it'll open a bit higher than most do. Not a lot of competition for this it seems)
4. Megamind – 13.9M
5. Love and Other Drugs – 13.6M
6. Burlesque – 12.5M
7. Unstoppable – 10.4M
8. Due Date – 8.3M
9. The Next 3 Days – 5.7M
10. Morning Glory – 3.6M
I'm thinking the competition for Faster will be older titles like Unstoppable, Due Date, The Next Three Days, and even Morning Glory. Some may choose Potter since they know for sure the movie won't be horrible, because none of them were. But it should be safe from the new titles, except for a few who want to see Anne Hathaway scantily clad. Lot's of spread out competition is probably why it's not tracking higher. I'm seeing it, though.
1. HARRY POTTER and the Ridiculously Long Title that I Refuse to Type Out, But Now I Slowly Realize That As I Type This Complaint Out, This is Much Much Longer – $80.7 million
2. TANGLED – $49.7 million
3. BURLESQUE – $20.4 million
4. FASTER – $19.5 million
5. MEGAMIND – $18.2 million
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Truly and sincerely, I hope you have the best holiday weekend you've had so far.
:)
1: "HARRY POTTER 7" – $84.3 MILLION
2: "TANGLED" – $56.2 MILLION
3: "BURLESQUE" – $24.5 MILLION
4: "FASTER" – $20.2 MILLION
5: "MEGAMIND" – $18.7 MILLION
My predictions are for the official three-day weekend.
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows-Part 1, $43.7 million. That's right, for the three day weekend, I'm predicting a 65% drop. I honestly want to predict a bigger one, but it just doesn't seem possible. But looking at this weekend, this performed almost exactly like New Moon in terms of the day-to-day, just with smaller numbers. Also, Half-Blood Prince fell 62% and that was from a diluted opening weekend (because it opened on a Wednesday) to a normal three-day weekend. This faces the opposite, therefore should theoretically fall more. And it will lose some weekend dollars to Wednesday and Thursday, more than probably everything else except Tangled. I was hoping we would do predictions on Thursday as per normal so I'd have a chance to see how this performs across the midweek, but it only put up $8 million yesterday…again, less than New Moon. Maybe I'm way wrong here, but that super-frontloaded weekend just looms too large for me to ignore. Interesting that if this does put up New Moon percentages, it will end up with around $265 million domestic…Chamber of Secrets money, with only Azkaban below it in the franchise. Adjusted for inflation, it would be dead last. I might just be blowing smoke out of my ass here, but that Sat-Sun plunge just can't be ignored.
2. Tangled, $36 million. This should do quite well, and will likely overtake Potter next weekend, but it should draw in more family dollars on Wednesday and Thursday to pull away from the weekend numbers. Otherwise it might have a shot to topple Potter this weekend. Apparently it's quite good, which I'd never have guessed from the abominable trailers. But as it's only playing in 3D here, I won't be seeing it for now. If the 2D version comes along I'll consider it, but I'm not paying extra money for a pointless gimmick and having to watch a movie through picture-dulling glasses.
3. Burlesque, $18.2 million. The other new releases all feel a bit tricky to me, and the extra days diluting the weekend number don't help. I'm hoping that has less of an effect, as none of these are very family friendly, but I'll probably be wildly off on at least one, if not all three.
4. Love and Other Drugs, $14.7 million. I really don't know what to expect from this one.
5. Megamind, $12 million. Family movies do strange things over Thanksgiving weekend. I'm only dipping this 25%, but I wouldn't be surprised with less, or even a slight gain.
6. Faster, $11 million. This seems like an odd weekend to release a hard R action film, but Hitman landed here three years ago. Maybe they figure it's a something for everyone-type weekend?
7. Unstoppable, $7.8 million. Down 40%.
8. Due Date, $5.3 million. Ditto.
9. The Next Three Days, $4.2 million.
10. Morning Glory, $3.4 million.
Forgot to add…a very Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!
Are these predictions for the typical 3-day weekend or the extended Thanksgiving weekend (either 4 or 5 day)? If everyone is predicting in the vicinity of 80mil+ 2nd weekend for HP7 Pt1, it can't be for the Fri-Sun period alone because that is just not happening. Thurs is a holiday and the majority of people have Fri off as well, thus those two days will be rather robust for moviegoing which will kinda deflate Sat and Sun.
Taking away the 24mil from midnight screenings, that leaves HP7 pt1 with 101mil or so. I give it a drop around 40-45% for the Fri-Sun period, maybe high 30% if it shows better legs.
63.3mil Fri-Sun for HP7 pt.1
I think those 80mil+ predictions are for the extended weekend and not the Fri-Sun period alone.
Five-day, Laremy mentions that in the first sentence. We don't often do five-day weekend estimates around here so when we do we'll be sure to tell you.
"don't often do five-day weekend estimates"
Actually, I've never seen 4 or 5 day weekend estimates since I've been following this website (2 years +/-). Laremy has always given 3 day predictions as far as I can remember. Why the sudden switch?
Just switched it up for the Thanksgiving holiday releases.
Although I'm Canadian and Thanksgiving in my mind happened in October but happy holidays.
1. HP 7 Part 1: $73.4 million
2. Tangled: $44.6 million
3. Burlesque:$21.2 million
4. Faster: $17.9 million
5. Love and Other Drugs: $14.8 million
Potter – 75
Tangled – 37
Megamind – 18
Burlesque – 17
Love and Other Drugs – 15
Faster – 13
1. *Harry Potter 7* – $78.5 million
2. *Tangled* – $61.2 million
3. *Burlesque* – $19.8 million
4. *Megamind* – $17.0 million
5. *Faster* – $14.5 million
1.) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows : Part 1 – $ 78 million
2.) Tangled – $ 52.4 million
3.) Faster – $ 17.5 million
4.) Burlesque – $ 15.4 million
5.) Megamind – $ 14.2 million
6.) Unstoppable – $ 12.5 million
7.) Love & Other Drugs – $ 11 million
8.) Due Date – $ 6.2 million
9.) Morning Glory – $ 6 million
10.) The Next Three Days – $ 5.2 million
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – $75.5
2. Tangled – $44.8
3. Love and other Drugs – $18.4
4. Megamind – $14.2
5. Burlesque – $12.6
6. Faster – $12.4
7. Unstoppable – $11.1
8. Due Date – $10.3
9. The Next Three Days – $7.2
10.Morning Glory – $4.4
My reason for placing "Love and other Drugs" in #3 is because I think that people who don't want to see 'Potter' or 'Tangled' will pick this over 'Faster' and 'Burlesque'.I don't think 'Burlesque' will live up to expectations.
1.Potter $65 million. Haven't done a detailed analysis, but my point is that Harry Potter will be just like Iron Man, in as much as the audience for the film won't suddenly expand. It should end up right around $310 million. Just as Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married, and Why Did I Get Married Too, had the same inflation adjusted final result even though the first opened at $21.3 million, whereas the sequel opened at $29.3 million. The new Potter is just more frontloaded.
2.Tangled $51 million. There has been anticipation for this movie all year, but how much will Potter suppress it?
3.Faster $20 million. In '07 Hitman opened at $22, in '08 Transporter 3 did $18, and last year, Ninja Assasin pulled in $21. Dwayne Johnson's added star power will probably be offset by the competition for this movie's audience.
4.Burlesque $18 I think some of the people who say they probably won't see this movie are playing it cool, and they will actually go see it; otherwise I would go lower.
5.Megamind $15.5 million. Some people who thought about Megamind will see Tangled. Less if Disney's advertising made Tangled seem like it could appeal to more boys.
6.Unstoppable
7.Love & etc.
8.Due Date
9.Next 3 Days
10.Morning Glory
Tangled has gotten such high reviews, it might get closer to Potter then predicted.
For the Five Days –
1 – Harry Potter – $72.3 million.
2 – Tangled – $54 million (if it's as good as some think, then that word may spread and push it up as the weekend progresses).
3 – Faster – $23 million.
4 – Love and Other Drugs – $19 million.
5 – Burlesque – $14 million
6 – Megamind – $13 million
7 – Unstoppable – $12.9 million (seems to be getting good reviews, may hold well over the period)
8 – Due Date – $8 million (I detest this whole film, but hey, it's actually performing decently enough)
9 – The Next Three Days – $6.1 million (possibly the shallowest drop on the top ten this period, but only because the opening was so low)
10 – Morning Glory – $4 million.
My Predictions for the Top 10 Nov. 24-28:
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1-$73.7 million
2. Tangled-$49.2 million
3. Burlesque-$19.6 million
4. Faster-$16.5 million (haven't seen much advertising for this)
5. Love and Other Drugs-$14.9 million (see above)
6. Megamind-$13.8 million (Tangled will hurt it)
7. Unstoppable-$11.2 million
8. Due Date-$7.8 million
9. The Next Three Days-$6.2 million
10. Morning Glory-$4.5 million
Just curious, what do you guys think will be the top grossing film of December?
I personally think it will be Little Fockers and Narnia 3 (worried that TRON won't do good business because not many people have heard of the original). Gulliver's Travels and Yogi Bear will bomb, and I hope True Grit and The Fighter do well.
I think that Tron is essentially going to tell you what happened in the first film anyway and that's actually more of a reboot than a sequel.
Therefore, you probably won't 'have' to have seen the first to get what's going on.
1) HARRY POTTER 7 PT. 1
U$85.8M 5-day weekend
2) TANGLED
U$65.7M 5-day weekend
3) MEGAMIND
U$20.0M 5-day weekend
Tangled looks terrific, and if I wasn't seeing Harry Potter 7 Part 1, that would be my choice for the weekend.
Unstoppable being #3 on Thursday tells you new releases like Burlesque, Love and Other Drugs, and Faster are in BIG trouble.
BTW, wanted to see Faster, then I saw the reviews. I wanted to see a movie, so saw Unstoppable, and it was very entertaining. Kind of a "Armageddon" kind of feel. They made the best movie they could, had some cheap laughs, good action, likable cast.