Box-Office Oracle: Nov. 19 – Nov. 21, 2010
Harry Potter will win. But what records will it set?
The last $200m + weekend we had was back in January, but there's a pretty good shot that this weekend will follow suit. It will also be the biggest Potter opening yet, and we could see Danny Boyle's 127 Hours sneak into tenth place as well. Let's break this thing down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 2 Weeks In A Row
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| The previous Potter opening weekend record holder was Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, which was also rated PG-13 and released in November. So the demand is there. But what will give this penultimate Potter the advantage? A slight edge in theater counts, pent up demand, and a massive lack of competition. However, it doesn't look like it can catch last year's New Moon, which debuted with nearly $143m. To hit my $134m it will either need to 1) Draw in new fans or 2) Get more frontloaded. Let's call it 50/50 on each of those. Need another bold prediction? The previous film in the franchise, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, didn't hit a billion in worldwide cume. This one will! Prediction: $134.464 million |
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Shouldn't be hurt too much by Deathly Halllows: Part One because that film is for an older demographic. The new Potter is also fairly dark, and word of this will give Megamind a little bump on Saturday and Sunday.
Prediction: $19.801 million
For some reason, I'm reminded of Vantage Point, though this one has been marketed far less and must be superior in the entertainment department.
Prediction: $11.538 million
It will face a dip, and more people watched the SNL parody than purchased a ticket last weekend. That's not going to help the holdover number.
Prediction: $11.117 million
I'm dipping it 48 percent and moving on to the far more interesting …
Prediction: $8.017 million
The bright side: creative people working on films with $10m production budget. The downside is that the "story" aspect seems to have been completely left out.
Prediction: $5.495 million
An undeniably cute film, but without Rachel McAdams none of it would have worked.
Prediction: $5.107 million
Should see a better hold this weekend, but coming down from 66 percent is no real achievement.
Prediction: $3.128 million
It feels like Red has been in the top ten forever. But this will only be the sixth weekend in a row.
Prediction: $2.778 million
I haven't found the theater counts yet, I'm writing this early due to travel plans, but the per theater average indicates that anything near 200 theaters will put this in the top ten.
Prediction: $2.015 million
How say you? Like a smaller number for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I? Have anything interesting to add on The Next Three Days? Is my math all wonky on 127 Hours? Here's your chance to lash out or build bridges, Brad will be with you on Sunday to recap the action.
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1.) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I – $ 129 million
2.) Megamind – $ 16.5 million
3.) Unstoppable – $ 13 million
4.) The Next Three Days – $ 10.4 million
5.) Due Date – $ 8.5 million
6.) Morning Glory – $ 5.5 million
7.) Skyline – $ 4.8 million
8.) For Colored Girls – $ 3.4 million
9.) Red – $ 3.2 million
10.) 127 Hours – $ 1.6 million
"However, it doesn't look like it can catch last year's New Moon, which debuted with nearly $143m. To hit my $134m it will either need to 1) Draw in new fans or 2) Get more frontloaded. Let's call it 50/50 on each of those."
1. Harry Potter is much more popular than Twilight
2. MORE FRONTLOADED?!?! I am pretty sure it is frontloaded. I mean +25 mil JUST for midnight- yeah it is not frontloaded. Seriously. What the hell is wrong with people. It can EASILY beat NEW MOON. the biggest opening for HP was the 4th which was in November. Same weekend. With 25 mil midnight- at least a 70 mil opening day and HP never goes downhill that fast like New Moon did over the weekend.
I am saying- 157.3 mil
And yet, two Twilight films still stand above Deathly Hallows on Fandango's advance ticket-seller list:
1. The Twilight Saga: New Moon
2. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1
4. Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith
5. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Hmmmmm….
Couldn't you also possibly chalk that up to fewer fans rushing out to the midnight screenings? As much as I'd love to be there, I have work in the morning and will have to settle with a Saturday afternoon screening. I know the Twilight films are generally more frontloaded than Harry Potter, so who knows.
This film is showing in a record number of 3,700 midnight locations and many are being sold out. So no, I don't think that's it.
I would be more likely to chalk it up to the fact I think Twilight fans are more rabid to the extent they will buy not just one showing, but likely two and or three in advance for a three-day weekend. It isn't about popularity, it's about fan obsession and I think Twilight fans are far more obsessed than Potter… but of course that's only my perceived impression, I have no way of really knowing.
WHere can we find the midnight ticket sales of harry poter 7? No websites seem to care. Didnt it come out last night? weds?
They aren't known yet, but I already wrote up what is known right here. So, I'd say this website cares. :)
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows-Part 1, $130 million. I adjusted the opening weekends and opening weekend PTAs of the first four films, threw out the low and high values which were outliers anyway, tweaked a couple things that I don't remember now, and came up with a range of $124-134 million. I think the first film is a valid comparison because there was a lot of interest from the general population in that one, more so than 2 or 3. But even though those finished up lower, they opened in the same range as 1. The last two opened on Wednesdays in the summer, making it too complicated to figure out much in relation to this film. I'll also say this one will pass Sorcerer's Stone to become the highest grossing of the series both domestically and worldwide, and will pass $1 billion. I'll be seeing it tomorrow afternoon, hopefully before it gets too crazy.
2. Megamind, $17.5 million.
3. The Next Three Days, $11.5 million. I doubt this would have done much better even if it wasn't against Harry Potter.
4. Unstoppable, $10.2 million.
5. Due Date, $7.7 million.
6. Morning Glory, $5 million
7. Skyline, $4.6 million.
8. Red, $3 million.
9. For Colored Girls, $2.9 million.
10. 127 Hours, $1.3 million. It needs a $12,000 PTA to hit this number. I don't know if it will or not, but I'm putting it here just for the hell of it. I've got Secretariat next at $1.2 million.
Look at Monsters Inc and Chicken Little. Those crashed 50% against Potter. Might want to rethink that 30% dip you have for Megamind, and that 127 Hours number (only in 100 sites), and that For Colored Girls # while you're at it.
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1 – $146.5 million. Third biggest weekend ever. Biggest weekend in November, highest opening for a Harry Potter film. I calculated what Goblet of Fire's $26,616 per screen average would amount to when adjusted for today's inflated prices, and I got roughly $32,000. I added another $3,515 for good measure and pent up demand, and this was the number I got.
$77.1 million opening day ($28 million for midnights), $39.3 million Saturday, and $30.1 million Sunday.
I honestly could care less about the rest of the opening weekend.
More Twilight bashing. How original (eye roll). Anyway, Harry Potter will win.
Harry Potter: these films tend to underperform expectations on opening weekend, but they hold over. I'm going with 120 million
Next Three Days; i've seen maybe 2 tv spots? 5 million
147 mil for potter
1.) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I – $ 137
2.)The Next Three Days – $ 18.4 million
3.) Megamind – $ 13.5 million
4.) Unstoppable – $ 10.1 million
5.) Due Date – $ 8.2 million
6.) Morning Glory – $ 5.2 million
7.) Skyline – $ 4.1 million
8.) For Colored Girls – $ 3.5 million
9.) Red – $ 3.3 million
10.) 127 Hours – $ 1.9 million
1. Harry Potter- $135.3 million
2. Megamind- $17.6 million
3. The Next Three Days- $13.9 million
4. Unstoppable- $12.8 million
5. Due Date- $8.8 million
1. Harry Potter- $126.6 million
2. Megamind- $15.2 million
3. Unstoppable- $13.7 million
4. The Next Three Days- $11.5 million
5. Due Date- $9.3 million
New Releases:
Harry Potter – 128
The Next Three Days – 13
I think I'm too late anyway so HP – $148.7 million.
Why not aim high.
The Next Three Days – 13.8 million.
HP7 – 143.2M
Megamind – 17.4M
Unstoppable – 13.3M
The Next 3 Days – 12.1M
Due Date – 8.0M
I'm going for it.. since this is the Final Chapter and people i know who haven't even seen the others are interested and already sold out for 2000 theatres at the midnights alone (if i'm correct) this will break 150 million this weekend.. I see that happening bigtime.. Megamind was a fun movie Number 2 easily and I'd say with the kids and sold out harry potter 23 million. Next three days may pull off number three with about 16 million.. unstoppable (the snl parady was funny)will fall to about 13 million at number four..
We'll See
My daughter has decided that she will watch this HP on video right before the last one this summer, I wonder if others will do this?
1.) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I – $148.1
2.) The Next Three Days – $ 15.6 million
3.) Megamind – $ 15.1 million
4.) Unstoppable – $ 12.3 million
5.) Due Date – $ 8.0 million
6.) Morning Glory – $ 4.5 million
7.) Skyline – $ 4.2 million
8.) For Colored Girls – $ 2.5 million
9.) Red – $ 2.3 million
10.) 127 Hours – $ 1.8 million
i've never been at a midnight release like last night, and my school is NOT in an urban or even suburban area, so i can't imagine what those locations would be like.
$160 Million
and nothing else even matters.
I still believe box office will be down from last year.
Even if Deathly Hallows part 1 overtakes New Moon, there's no equivilant to The Blind Side for 2 reasons
1. 127 Hours doesn't have a wide enough release
2. Nobody in America would be interested in Made in Dagenham
Both movies, like Blind Side are based on true events.
You asked for it Brad and now I will give you it.
My prediction is that Made in Dagenham will flop miserably, therefore killing whatever award season buzz it alledgedly had.
1. HP7 – $139.7
2. Megamind – $16.89
3. Unstoppable – $12.02
4. The Next Three Days – $8.7
5. Due Date – $7.09
6. Skyline – $4.91
7. Morning Glory $4.69
8. For Colored Girls – $2.48
9. RED – $2.18
10. Paranormal Activity 2 – $1.78