2. A Christmas Carol – $19.2M Really, it's not Disney's Christmas Carol. They added zero new to the film. Not too disastrous a drop but I don't see it making more than $125 million domestic.

3. The Men That Stare at Goats – $7.3M

4. Precious – $6.7 M I saw this movie last weekend, and I'm still thinking about it. I thought about it while watching 2012. This movie will blow up when it gets released wide Thanksgiving weekend. Oprah is a very powerful woman. We won't go see the movie she's in (Beloved) but we'll go see anything she tells us to.

5. Michael Jackson This is It – $6.5M

6. The Fourth Kind – $5.2M
7. Paranormal Activity – $4.6M
8. Couples Retreat – $4.1M
9. The Box – $3.8M

10. Pirate Radio – $2.7M So, I live in New York, have a lot of movie afficianados for friends and only a small amount has heard of this film. Um, I don't think it's got the Borat sized word of mouth that a previous commenter had said. Should fail in this country as it has been doing in other countries.

Pirate Radio could by the word of mouth hit of November, now that Nine is pushed back.

1. 2012 – 45.7
2. The Christmas Carol – 21.2
3. Precious – 9.5
4. The Men who Stare at Goats – 9.1
5. This Is It – 7.9
6.The Fourth Kind – 6.4
7. Paranormal Activity – 5.0
8.Law Abiding Citizens – 4.8
9.Couples Retreat – 4.7
10. The Box – 3.8
11. Pirate Radio – 3.6

Again, made these before looking at any other predictions (although predictions for 2012 were impossible to avoid), and it looks like I'm predicting a much, much higher total box office than you this weekend. With the economy the way it is, I think I may be headed for a shut-down. Although my weakness is usually underestimating, so it'll be interesting for me to get these results back.

As to the orders – I think 2012 is going to steal a chunk of Couple's Retreat money (no, really!), a chunk of Fourth Kind, and a chunk of Paranormal Activity. As to Precious – I think Oprah reigns supreme.

Dont know how many theaters Precious is gaining so…..

Wow, my grammar's horrible. Sorry dudes.

I think you understand the gist of what I'm trying to say though.

And the strong Veterans Day box for "A Christmas Carol" suggests there are still plenty of parents around who want to take their (not-too-young) kids to see it. $22M.

"Goats" will place 3rd. And "Pirate Radio" will do better than expected, placing around seventh.

I say $59 million, although it could come close (or even beat) "The Day after Tomorrow"'s first three days.

With "Goats", I'm giving it a Leatherheads type drop- somewhere in the low-50% range. It's been doing alright during the weekdays, but most of the people who wanted to see it did so last week.

Also, I don't think "Carol" will drop much more than 35% from its opening weekend. Even though there was a holiday this week, it's still holding up well on the weekdays.

I would also respectfully contest your "horror films dropping less" theory. Horror films are heavily frontloaded as it's the same folks seeing all of them. They come early (if they come) and then fall off the map.

But good stuff overall, I appreciate your input.

2. A Christmas Carol (2009)–$18.6mil. I'm putting it at a 38% drop right now. "2012" may steal a little competition, but not much. However, it won't hold as well as "The Polar Express." But, comes Thanksgiving weekend, it'll have a nice hold, maybe even an increase, if it keeps its theater count relatively high.

3. The Men Who Stare at Goats–$7.7mil. I used "The Informant!" as a sort of precedent. Both are adult-oriented comedies that got mixed reviews. The Informant only dropped 36%. I put this one at 39%.

4. Michael Jackson's This Is It–$6.8mil. Concert films never hold as well in their 3rd weekend as they do in their second. So I expect this film to half its business.

5. The Fourth Kind–$6.4mil. PG-13 horror films rarely fall much more than 50-55% the 2nd weekend, and many of them retain just over half of their business, as I believe this one will.

6. Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire–$4.7mil. For platform releases, the 2nd weekends normally take the biggest hit in per-theater-averages, but after that they hold considerably better. I can't wait to see how much steam "Precious" has.

7. Paranormal Activity–$4.5mil. It's past Halloween. Despite no new genre competition until January, I think its days of fantastic holds are behind it. But it's already a success, so it's no loss.

8. Couples Retreat–$4.4mil. While movies tend to hold better when the amount of new releases are small (there's two new wide releases this weekend, but it's more like 1, since "Pirate Radio" won't make anything), I think "2012" will appeal to a wide enough audience that we can't expect micro-drops similar to the weekend of Oct. 9 and July 11. This one will fall 28%. Apparently travel porn in the gloomy fall months is a great marketing scheme. Throw in some marital conflict, and everyone above 30 is interested… and it's the old crowd that delivers the best holds.

9. Law Abiding Citizen–$3.7mil.

10. The Box–$3.5mil. 54% drop. It'll lose at least half its business. If word of mouth is really bad (which I don't think it is, but I haven't been paying attention), it could drop 60% even. But I don't think that'll happen.

11. Pirate Radio–$3.2mil. Yup, it's not even making the top 10. No buzz, no advertisement, and people in Europe are calling this "The Boat That Sunk" (in reference to its international title, "The Boat That Rocked").