Box-Office Oracle: Nov. 12 – Nov. 14, 2010
Megamind will repeat this weekend, vanquishing three new releases!
Last weekend ticket sales went bonkers, old school bonkers, the biggest weekend since July. We'll see a slight downturn this time around, but amazingly the weekend offers three new releases that don't overlap with any recent holdover target markets. For the record it goes: Animation, Action, Sci-Fi, Comedy, Romantic Comedy, Drama. Nice scheduling Hollywood! Let's break this thing down.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
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| I'm taking a 28 percent dip for a repeat. Do we all remember the lesson of Bolt? That one gained strength in its second weekend, so it can happen in November for films competing in the family sector. As far as the financials go, Paramount / Dreamworks should be okay with that $130m budget because this is the sort of film that will have some reach internationally, though not to the level of Madagascar 2's $180m / $423m split.
Plus, it will clear $100m domestically with ease. Sadly, they'll miss the holiday DVD window, which will cost them a few bucks. Still, overall, much in the way of good news. Prediction: $33.13 million |
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This will open lower than Pelham 1 2 3, even though it is not rated R. People might be over the whole "Action Train!" movie movement.
Prediction: $21.175 million
I wonder about the decision not to screen it for anyone. Was it just a financial call? Or are they hiding it?
Prediction: $19.474 million
First things first, kudos to Ian's Bingo on Due Date last Thursday. Those are hard to come by. As for Due Date the film, I remain troubled by that $65m budget. That feels about two times too high.
Prediction: $18.687 million
The million dollar Wednesday portends bad news. But the date night demographic has to go somewhere.
Prediction: $11.96 million
A 45 percent bleed, nothing to be too bent out of shape about.
Prediction: $10.724 million
$99m worldwide on a $58m budget. Looks like Summit will survive to fight another day.
Prediction: $6.376 million
I'd say the results of Saw 2, 3, and 4 won't ever be reached again.
Prediction: $3.092 million
$144m worldwide on a $3m budget. Quick, everyone buy some editing software and a video camera!
Prediction: $3.024 million
$131m worldwide on a $20m budget. Quick, everyone buy some editing software, a video camera, and some insurance!
Prediction: $2.758 million
That's all I got. How say you? Do you dare call a different film at the top? Am I too low on the new releases? Brad will be back on Sunday morning to wrap you up like a Christmas present.
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Unstoppable-18.7mil
Morning Glory-15mil
Skyline-17.5mil
Whats odd is I see so many more "showings" of Unstoppable over Skyline at my local complex, I can't help but think that Unstoppable will do closer to $30M and Skyline will do $10M. Put it this way, they will not finish $2M apart.
Megamind – 28M
Unstoppable – 23.5M
Skyline – 23.4M
Due Date – 17.9M
FCG – 8.4M
Mega Mind – 29
Unstoppable -23.5
Due Date – 17.5
Morning Glory – 14
Sky Line – 11.5
unstoppable – 29.2 (will take some of morning glory's $)
megamind – 27.7
due date – 22.1
skyline – 10.4 (huge flop)
red – 9.3
1: *SKYLINE* – $40.2 million
2: *UNSTOPPABLE* – $35.5 million
3: *MEGAMIND* – $34.0 million
4: *DUE DATE* – $18.7 million
5: *MORNING GLORY* – $12.7 million
=)
1. Megamind- $28.8 million
2. Unstoppable- $26.1 million
3. Skyline- $19.3 million
4. Due Date- $16.7 million
5. Morning Glory- $13.2 million
1. Unstoppable – 29.4 million
2. Megamind – 24.8 million
3. Due Date – 17.6 million
4. Morning Glory – 14.3 million
5. Skyline – 10.4 million
1. Skyline – $30M This is a hard call. I know it has no stars and no reviews, but it just seems that alien invasion movies do very well. Just need aliens and the previews have delivered. But myabe I'm going way overboard here.
2. Megamind – $29.2M It's going to be close.
3. Unstoppable – $22.1M This is the minimum this one has to make so that the headlines don't read, Stoppable.
4. Due Date – $17.2M
5. Morning Glory – $12.4M This movie went from potential to eh pretty darn quickly. Doesn't help that the Harrison Ford interviews have been awkward.
I have a feeling that Skyline could surprise and win the weekend. Kind of sucks to see the new releases so likley to fail.
1. SKYLINE – $36.7 million
2. UNSTOPPABLE – $33.5 million
3. MEGAMIND – $33.4 million
4. DUE DATE – $18.6 million
5. MORNING GLORY – $15.3 million
I really wanna see Unstoppable, and still need to see Due Date and possibly Morning Glory and Megamind.
Have an extraordinary weekend, everyone! :)
1. Megamind- $34.2 million
2. Unstoppable- $29.3 million
3. Skyline- $23.4 million
4. Due Date- $12.3 million
5. Morning Glory- $11.4 million
1. Megamind – 29.5 M
2. Unstoppable – 29 M
3. Skyline – 25.7 M
4. Due Date – 13 M
5. Morning Glory – 11.2 M
I think those positive reviews are really gonna help out Unstoppable, I could see it reaching around $25 million, but anything about 3mil or so above or below that $23.5 that Taking of Pelham got is feasible.
Megamind I'd say about $28 million.
Skyline – $16.1 million
$21 million is a foolish number.Unstoppable will open much higher than Pelham did. Everyone is excited about the film and the reviews for the movie have been good.
1. Megamind, $29.9 million. I'm interested to see how this does. Due Date thumped it Monday and Tuesday, though it closed the gap a bit yesterday. I really don't see it doing as well as Dragon or Despicable Me, mainly because those seemed to be much better films. Nevertheless, this is only a 35% drop, mainly because there's just nothing else out there for kids. If it drops much more, this could be a close finish.
2. Unstoppable, $25.6 million. I'll peg this a bit higher than Pelham 123…it's PG-13, Denzel has a pretty reliable following, Chris Pine should help (I think he has future action star written all over him), and against all conceivable odds, it's getting really good reviews.
3. Due Date, $21.1 million. I'm interested to see how far this falls too. I'm giving it the same 35% drop as Megamind. I actually enjoyed this quite a bit…sure it didn't have the non-stop hilarity of The Hangover or Old School, and yes Zach G. played the EXACT same character as in The Hangover, right down to the lack of swearing, but I still thought it was plenty funny and enjoyed myself.
4. Morning Glory, $15.1 million. I don't know what to do with this one…I can't find anything to compare it to, and despite the heavy comparisons to The Devil Wears Prada in the ads, there's no fashion element here, and Ford plus Keaton does not equal Streep. So I plucked a $6,000 PTA out of the air and that's what I'm going with.
5. Skyline, $10.1 million. There are some high predictions here for this, which I just don't see. Yes alien invasion movies are generally popular, but the most popular ones were either heavily marketed, mysterious, had recognizable stars, or had some combination of those. This has none of those. I'm giving it a $3,500 PTA.
6. For Colored Girls, $9.7 million. I'm only dinging this 50%, since apparently it skewed older than most of TP's films.
7. Red, $6 million. I'm taking this back to a 30% drop.
8. Paranormal Activity 2, $3.5 million. See you October 21, 2011!
9. Saw VII, $3.1 million. See you after Paranormal Activity runs its course!
10. Secretariat, $3 million. Jackass can't duplicate last weekend's small drop can it?
I'll be checking out Fair Game this weekend. My early over-under on Harry Potter (without having crunched any numbers): $135 million.
I previewed Skyline at a theater I used to work at last night and I didn't like it at at all. There was nothing original about it and I could not get myself to care about any of the characters in the slightest. So I'm hoping it doesn't do very well and maked the studios think they should crank out more garbage like it.
1. Megamind – 31.2 Million
2. Unstoppable – 24.3 Million
3. Due Date – 19.5 Million
4. Morning Glory – 16.8 Million
5. For Colored Girls – 10.3 Million
6. Skyline – 8.9 Million
Here we go.
1. "Unstoppable" – $34.5 million
2. "Megamind" – $34.2 million
3. "Skyline" – $26.7 million
4. "Due Date" – $18.5 million
5. "Morning Glory" – $14.5 million
Bolt's second weekend was Thanksgiving. I'd say it was reasonable to expect it to increase.
okay so am i really the only one that's heard pretty much every guy around talk about how they think that SKYLINE looks amazing and could be the next independence day (doubtful i think) but point being that a lot of guys are wanting to see this in a big big way.. now I think you're looking at a 20 million plus for SKYLINE.. Morning glory will be the bottom end of the new releases for sure.. it's a cute film but so's megamind and believe me there were two kids only when i went to see megamind everyone EVERYONE else was a couple. Sooo when we think of date nights obviously people think cute cartoon not romantic comedy…
1.) MEGAMIND- 27.8 mil
- Very good animated film if you ask me. I think due to a lower opening it will hold pretty nicely. The reason why it is not doing bigger numbers than DUE DATE during the week is because kids are in school. I see nice holds and with no big kids movies coming out till TANGLED (HP won't affect it as much) I feel like it will hold pretty nicely.
2.) UNSTOPPABLE- 24.8 mil
- I am looking forward to this movie, it looks really good. I think it will have a decent opening and will hold well the next couple of weeks.
3.) DUE DATE- 18.7 mil
- It is no HANGOVER but I think it's final gross will be decent.
4.) SKYLINE- 15.3 mil
- I actually think this movie looks pretty cool, but there has not been much advertising for this film.
5.) MORNING GLORY- 14.9 mil
- I LOVED this film. It was such a good movie. SO entertaining and so enjoyable. Hope it does decent numbers. Rachel McAdams was EXCELLENT.
You're being too generous with the drops for "Megamind" and "For Colored Girls." "Bolt" may have increased in its second weekend, but that was because it fell squarely on Thanksgiving (it was the same thing that happened with "The Blind Side"). Madagascar 2 opened on the same time frame as Megamind and fell -45%. But it also opened higher and was a sequel, so Megamind is more likely to fall -35%-40%.
As for "For Colored Girls," it's a Tyler Perry film aimed at a black audience–those always have huge 2nd weekend falls. I imagine this one will have a -58%-60% fall.
I'm too late to count this week so I'm just gonna go and pull any figure!!!
1 – Megamind: $34 million
2 – Unstoppable: $30 million
3 – Due Date: £17 million
4 – Morning Glory: $13 million
5 – Skyline (the most unpredictable one this weekend and where I will be most wrong likely): $9.8 million
6 – For Coloured Girls: $9 million
7 – Red: $6.2 million
8 – Paranormal Activity 2: $3 million
9 – Saw 3D: $2.2 million
10 – Secretariat: $2 million.
One thing's for damn certain next week.
Made in Dagenham will be an even bigger flop than MacGruber was.
Remember! Skyline only cost 10 million to make supposedly. Ofcourse there was alot of advertising, so lets ad another 25 million to the budget. Still the ads didnt make me care about it at all even with the special effects. I like harrison ford so now that he is finally in a half way decent movie besides Indy I will go see it. ANYONE KNOW WHY ALL THE MOVIES GOT A BIG JUMP ON THURSDAY?
ditto. I was wondering why Megamind got low returns in the past 3 weekdays but then Thursday came and they got a 226% boost.
Is it a holiday weekend or a day off in the US?
Remerberance Day sticks to mind!
I meant Rememberance Day
1.) Megamind – $32.4M
2.) Unstoppable – $26.9M
3.) Skyline – $16.5M
Next weekend 2 things are for damn certain!
1. Deathly Hallows part 1 will be inevitably frontloaded.
2. Made in Dagenham will be an even bigger flop than MacGruber was.
The Next Three Days' performance is a mystery,