Box-Office Oracle: May 7 – May 9, 2010
Iron Man will win. But will it set the record?
The streak stands at nine, and this weekend I get a freebie. Iron Man 2 will dominate, leaving only the final number up for consideration. Let's break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 9 Weeks In A Row
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| The majority of comments have this one breaking $160m, but I just don't see it. My call of $33,550 per theater represents a heap of cash. This film isn't as buzzy as The Dark Knight was in 2008, so how can it hit $155m? Other problems? The folks who loved the first edition don't seem to love this one. The luster is off the rose, leaving only those of us who enjoy solid pacing to appreciate it. I liked the movie, but I can see where some don't think it hit the high notes of the first. It really comes down to what you look for in a film. Finally, and in some weird way, Mamma Mia! had to have brought a percentage point or two into The Dark Knight. This week there isn't anything to help Iron Man 2 get people to the multiplex. It's Iron Man 2 or nothing, and I'm betting only 20 million people will make the journey. If 22 million show up — just to show me up — I'll admit I was wrong. Prediction: $146.94 million |
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It's going to plummet, and it's actually in a bit of trouble given the frontloading and the $25m + production budget. A 3D sequel has already been mentioned, but if this weekend doesn't work out in the film's favor could this be the end of Haley's Freddy run?
Prediction: $12.01 million
Finally, after six weekends in a row, it loses its theater count advantage. Paramount did a wonderful job bridging the gap between Iron Man 2 and How to Train Your Dragon. They certainly know their business.
Prediction: $6.97 million
It might be children's films from here on out for Mr. Shawn Levy. $110m worldwide cume on $55m production budget isn't quite getting there.
Prediction: $4.68 million
Of course, Date Night's numbers are better than The Back-Up Plan's $24m on a $35m production budget.
Prediction: $4.15 million
We've officially reached the ghetto portion of this weekend's Oracle column.
Prediction: $3.24 million
The budget was $35m. Insert boisterous laughter here. In The Green Mile the two little girls were killed by their love for each other. Furry Vengeance was killed because people seem to hate Brendan Fraser. Or is it vengeful CG animals? Both? Shame.
Prediction: $3.18 million
Looking like a nice financial win for Warner Bros. Who says you can't cut up a film beyond all recognition in the editing room yet still profit?
Prediction: $3.18 million
Most calls have it making more. But people with babies don't have time to go to the movies, and it's only getting like 500 theaters. Not enough.
Prediction: $1.87 million
$11m away from the prior version. Next up: a German language remake!
Prediction: $1.67 million
Here's your final chance to predict under $160m+. Will you take it? Or sticking with massive success for Mr. Tony Stark's sequel?
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100 million. It will dissapoint.
Or less
id be happy
1. IRON MAN 2 – $162.0 million
2. NIGHTMARE OR ELM STREET – $10.4 million
3. HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON – $7.1 million
4. DATE NIGHT – $4.9 million
5. BABIES – $4.5 million
I'm going full-geek on this one and seeing it at midnight – something I've rarely ever done. The hype is melting me, and that J.J. Abrams trailer thing is pumping me up even more… I must see it as soon as I can. Iron Man 2 all the way this weekend. I haven't seen anything since Date Night…
Have a really, really fun weekend everyone! So psyched the summer movie season is here!
:)
I'm more excited for the trailer than I am the movie.
Iron Men 2 – 159.7
Nightmare on Elm Street – 9.1
Iron Man 2 wins the weekend with $ 151 million. This is an optimistic prediction. I dont think it can do more than this. I would not be surprised if it settles for something around $ 135 million.
There is absolutely no way it can touch $ 160 million. Neither does Iron Man have a fan-following like Twilight to get it opening numbers of somewhere around $ 70 million, nor does it have enough glowing reviews to suggest that people will go to see it come what may. It will be a success for sure. But dont think it would be such a huge one as many are predicting.
This weekend:
1.Iron Man 2-$140.2 (N/A)
2.A Nightmare on Elm Street-$10.1* (-69%)
3.How to Train Your Dragon-$9.2 (-15%)
4.The Back-Up Plan-$5.9 (-18%)
5.Date Night-$5.3 (-30%)
6.The Losers-$3.2 (-47%)
7.Furry Vengeance-$3 (-54%)
8.Clash of the Titans-$2.2 (-63%)
9.Babies-$2.1 (N/A)
10.Kick-Ass-$2 (-55%)
01. Iron Man 2 – 151.4 million
02. A Nightmare on Elm Street – 11.2 million
03. How To Train Your Dragon – 7.2 million
04. Date Night – 4.8 million
05. The Back Up Plan – 4.1 million
Iron Man 2 opening weekend $136m
I don't think there's any chance for IM to end up with 155-158. If that happened.. why would Paramount not push it to the record? After all, they pushed TF to 200m 5-day last summer. IM should end up with about 160 million, I think.
Also, don't forget two things- Mother's Day is on Sunday, which does help family movies/chick flicks (think Dragon/Babies/Back-Up Plan), and Dragon gets all of its IMAX taken away by Iron Man this weekend. That should prevent a sub-40% drop.
Iron man 2 $132
Dragon $8
Nightmare < $8
Iron Man 2 is not breaking the record, WOM and mystique factor is not strong enough to secure it. That being said, it will be a pretty great weekend for IM2.
#1. Iron Man 2- $135.8 million
#2. How To Train Your Dragon- $8.3 million
#3. Nightmare on Elm Street- $7.4 million
#4. Date Night- $5.3 million
#5. Back-up Plan- $3.8 million
P.S Just wondering but I think Lamey may be too hard on Date Night, its not breaking records but once DVD comes into play it should make a nice bit of profit.
i say iron man is 124 million, good but not a record breaker, plus no 3d!
"…plus no 3D!"
I'm happy for that. :-)
Iron Man 2…142 million
Nightmare On Elm street…9.9 million
Babies…will not crack the top ten
# 1 Iron Man 2 – $133.2 mil.
I think I am more excited for Batman 3 details to be revealed than I am to see Iron Man 2 this weekend. Haha.
I'm also excited to see the new Inception trailer.
IM2 isn't going below 140M, but I'm deffentially not expecting to beat TDK anymore. The buzz for it just isn't there, but it should still have a HUGE opening. I seriously wouldn't be suprised if it atleast beat SP3's opening record.
My Prediction
1. IM2 – $148M
2. Nightmare – $9M
After weeks of drought, who would want to see a horror movie, or even babies rather than Iron Man 2? Even babies would love to watch Iron Man 2 over Babies!
1.) Iron Man 2 – $145M – Big buzz, albeit some are encouraging others that its not as good as its predecessor, so I guess it will hurt the movie a bit
2.) Nightmare on Elm Street – $9M – Biggest drop in Horror History. Friday the 13th formula, although this movie didn't drop because it wasn't Friday the 13th anymore, the problem was, well, it sucked.
9.) Babies – $2M – Yep, at least 250,000 moms will watch this while their husbands and kids watch Iron Man 2
IM2: 122.2 Mil
NOES:10
HTTYD:8.9
I'd like to see Babies do as much as you say – it sounds interesting.
138.2 million for Iron Man 2
Was funny at the movie complex at 4:30 for "Nightmare" today seeing all the ropes and stuff outside preparing for midnight showings of Iron Man 2.
My local paper gave "Babies" 3 1/2 stars, and he is usually stingy with that rating, so don't underestimate it, over the next month anyway.
Has anyone seen how many theaters Iron Man 2 is getting? Its flippin insanity.
1. Iron Man 2- $147.3 million
2. Nightmare on Elm Street- $6.9 million (Ouch)
3. How To Train Your Dragon- $6.3 million
4. Date Night- $4.6 million
5. The Back-Up Plan- $4.3
From my limited perspective IM2 is facing two problems – school and Mothers day. Oh and some less than glowing reviews
1 – Iron Man 2 $138
2 – How to Train ur Dragon $9.5
3 – NOES – $8.5
4 – Date Night -$4.5
5 – Jlo – $3.8
1. Iron Man 2, $153.3 million. I believe this is going to be the widest release ever, with a handful more theatres than The Dark Knight had. That being said, I don't expect it to perform at The Dark Knight's level on a PTA basis. I'm going with a PTA between Pirates 2 and Spider-Man 3, but leaning closer to the latter to account for the similar complete dominance of the marketplace it will enjoy this weekend. I'm a little nervous about going this high, as something more like $135 million seems to make sense in my mind, but this just seems like one of those massive event films that EVERYONE has to see. It will be interesting to hear the word of mouth and see how it does next weekend, as the RT score has been steadily dropping the last few days.
2. A Nightmare on Elm Street, $8.2 million. Yes, that is a whopping 75% drop. I skipped it, having heard that it's just awful and doesn't even have the campy awfulness that Friday the 13th had. I'm also puzzled by the sequel talk, as this is looking to be much less profitable (if it's profitable at all) than Friday the 13th was, and they can't get that sequel off the ground.
3. How to Train Your Dragon, $7 million. It finally fell 30% last weekend after a month of drops around 20% (though I believe it did fall over 30% in its second weekend). Even though Iron Man will hurt it, and take away its IMAX/LIE-MAX dollars, I'm saying it matches last week's drop. Something has to pick up people from all the Iron Man sellouts, right? This seems like the most likely film to do so.
4. Date Night, $4.9 million. The theme from here on is pretty much the same: sub $5 million totals and steeper drops than last weekend due to everyone seeing Iron Man.
5. The Backup Plan, $4.6 million. Except for this one. There's absolutely no counter programming to Iron Man (Letters to Juliet was scheduled for this weekend once upon a time, but I guess they figured Robin Hood would be easier to compete against…they're right), and I figure this is the best bet for women in the non-Iron Man audience.
6. The Losers, $3.5 million. See #5 above.
7. Clash of the Titans, $3.4 million. And again.
8. Furry Vengeance, $3 million. A greater than 50% fall. I was so happy to see this tank last weekend; hopefully the trend will continue.
9. Kick-Ass, $2.2 million. This has sadly been unable to avoid 50% drops two weekends in a row. Iron Man won't do it any favors.
10. Babies, $2 million. I can't think of a precedent for this film (no narration, no dialogue, etc.), so this is a total shot in the dark. I see Death at a Funeral pulling in around $2 million as well, but I'll give Babies the spot just for the hell of it I suppose.
Saw Kick-Ass again tonight and think it's still amazing on the fourth go-round. I'll be seeing Iron Man 2 tomorrow with the masses…I'm not that excited about it, but it's one of those major event films that you just have to see, even though I'm expecting it to be pretty mediocre. What I am excited about is the new all stadium, all Sony 4K digital Muvico theatre opening in my town this weekend. I'm finally gonna have a true, state of the art theatre to see movies in regularly!
For my commentary on The Losers and Clash of the Titans, I meant to refer to my commentary on #4 (Date Night) not #5.
I don't see Iron Man 2 exeeding the open weekend of Alice in Wonderland let alone The Dark Knight.
One thing IM2 lacks is inflated prices from 3D showtimes.
1. Iron Man…………………..142.4
2. Nightmare Elm Street……14.0
3. How To Train Dragons……6.2
4. Date Night…………………4.9
5. The Back-Up Plan………..3.8
6. The Losers…………………3.6
7. Furry Vengeance…………..3.5
8. Clash of Titans…………..2.6
9. Babies……………………….1.8
10. Death at a Funeral…………1.7
11. Kick-Ass…………………1.7
12. Oceans…………………….1.4
1. Iron Man 2 – $155.16 million
2. A Nightmare on Elm Street – $11.08 million
3. How to Train Your Dragon – $6.79 million
4. Date Night – $5.36 million
5. The Back-Up Plan – $4.47 million
6. Clash of the Titans – $3.58 million
7. The Losers – $3.32 million
8. Babies – $3.25 million
9. Death at a Funeral – $2.17 million
10. Kick-Ass – $2.11 million
I think Everyone is being to cruel on Iron Man.
1.) IRON MAN 2- 164.3 mil
-Yes I may be way to high but the buzz is there. I mean if New Moon can make 144 mil surely IM2 can. I may be too high on this but whatever. I feel good that it will do well.
2.) NIGHTMARE ON ELM STREET- 8.7 mil
-How is a sequel in works?
3.) HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON- 6.7 mil
-So hapy for this film.
4.) DATE NIGHT- 5.6 mil
- Your way to hard on this Laremy. 75 mil is pretty good for this movie.
5.) THE BACK-UP PLAN- 4.3 mil
- This is doing better than I thought it would do.
Comment Away!
Mother's Day is an interesting factor, and it now looks like most feel it won't break the record. The vote is 20-4 against breaking the record by my count.
If Nick's number comes through they'll probably declare they've broken the record then have to retract. That number is too close not to tempt them into calling it. :)
Personally, I doubt they would pull no less than $3 million out of their ass just for the sake of it. $155 million is a respectable result no matter what. Now if it finished $100k short of TDK or something… that'd be another story :)
Iron Man 2:
$170 Million for the weekend
$63 Million for opening day
$9 Million for midnight showings
does any other movie even matter this weekend?
Iron Man 2: $160mil. It's just barely going to break the record. I would say it'll make about as much as Transformers 2 on its OW, except TF2 had a 5-day weekend, so it's a rather hard comparison to make.
Nightmare on Elm Street: $9.8mil. It's falling at least 70%. But so far its daily numbers suggest that it won't pull a horrid 80% plummet like Friday the 13th did.
Babies: $3.0mil. You say that people with babies have no time to go to the movies. I say that people with babies don't want to see a movie about babies anyway. The people who want to see a movie about babies are those who haven't yet given birth to them and those who gave birth to them twenty or thirty years ago. And those two demographics DO have time to go to the theater.
i'm really excited about iron man 2 but i must know is the super 8 trailer any good?
Nothing special to tell you the truth, saw it last night. However, the new Inception trailer is sure to get you excited.
I surely hope so i've been waiting for inception for a while now it looks incredible
Here is the trailer for Super 8. Found it online.
http://blog.taragana.com/e/2010/05/07/jj-abrams-super-8-movie-trailer-available-117946/