Box-Office Oracle: May 21 – May 23, 2010
COMMENTS
Shrek in a landslide, but will the 3-D dollars push it to $100m?
Based on the Shrek trend I'm going bearish on this title. But if you wanted to go bullish you'd cite the 3-D aspect, or the fact that school is mostly out for the children. Okay, let's break this thing down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 11 Weeks In A Row
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| The third one actually opened at $121m, a massive number. But when these things fade, they fade quick. And the third one dropped 56 percent in its second weekend, (as opposed to Shrek 2's 33 percent) meaning the public got very fed up in May of 2007. So you can figure this one of two ways. Either 1) People have forgotten they were over this franchise or 2) They have very short memories, and the kids need something to do. We'll find out either way this weekend. Prediction: $87.18 million | |
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2. Iron Man 2
A 49 percent drop is all I can factor in, ten percent better than last weekend.
Prediction: $26.54 million
3. MacGruber
This is the title that could surprise us. The public is hungry for comedy, and this one actually looks fairly solid.
Prediction: $20.36 million
Films like this should cost much less. Like "make 'em on your Mac in your free time" less.
Prediction: $7.19 million
6. Just Wright
Never really caught on with the critics or the general public.
Prediction: $4.23 million
$430m worldwide and counting. The only downside for Paramount / Dreamworks? The fantastic holdover numbers probably benefited the theaters, as studios take more of the opening weekend dollars.
Prediction: $2.85 million
8. Date Night
Looks like a moneymaker, but it still might not hit that magical $100m domestically.
Prediction: $2.34 million
They need fans of horror to start seeing these things two or three times, and in 3-D. Potential solution? Robotizing the human race.
Prediction: $2.09 million
10. The Back-Up Plan
Pass. Brad is still in Cannes, France and wants this posted so he can get himself some rest. Ending it now is a purely humanitarian move. [Editor's Note: True!]
Prediction: $1.52 million
How say you? Calls for Shrek Forever After are as high as $135m. Call it correctly now, and gain Internet immortality!
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Calling it right now, Sherk 4 is going to be the Batman and Robin of animated movies, nonetheless it will kill this weekend.
1. Sherk 4- $92.7 million
2. Iron Man 2- $27.4 million
3. MacGruber- $18.1 million
4. Robin Hood- $16.6 million
5. Letters To Juliet- $7.8 million
At this point with Iron Man's drops I'll be surprised to see it reach 350 million as opposed to the 400 mil that so many were predicting.
$350 million was out as of the second weekend. I think the question now is whether it beats the original's numbers. On the plus side, while this one was more expensive, it also made more from tie-in deals (seeing how the first was an unexpected blockbuster). This one had tons of promotional partners to offset rising costs.
Granted I still haven't seen the film yet, but I'm still scratching my head as to why it's underperforming.
I have the feeling that Shrek 4 is going to flop. No one really cares about the franchise anymore. I actually think that MacGruber will the the winner this weekend, however it is unclear if it will be big.
My picks:
1. Shrek 4 – 80 million
2. Iron Man 2 – 27 million
3. Macgruber – 20 million
4. Robin Hood – 16 million
Going bearish on "Shrek 4" and bullish for "Macgruber." We'll see how it plays out.
My guess is that Shrek will do better than tracking estimates since there has been nothing new in the marketplace for children since HTTYD. And it is in 3D.
1. Shrek 97.8 M
2. Iron Man 24.2 M (larger drop than some expect due to front loading and because college crowd will hit Macgruder).
3. Macgruder. 23.1 M (great movie before finals)
4. Letters to Juliet. 8.0 M
5. Just Wright. 4.8 M
Ooops. Forget about that other movie in the marketplace (like many other people will this weekend).
1. Shrek 97.8
2. Iron Man 24.2
3. Macgruder 23.1
4. Robin Hood. 15.3
5. Letters to Juliet 8.o
6. Just Wright. 4.8
1.) Shrek:$101.5 M
2.)Iron man 2: 27.6 M
3.) MacGruber: 21.7 M
4.)Robin Hood: 15.8 M
5.)Just Wright: 8.5M
Shrek Forever After: $103 million
With prices higher then $13 per ticket it seems like a good call
I don't think Shrek will do as well as people think.
I've got:
Shrek 4: 79 mill
Iron Man 2: 28 mill
MacGruber: 18 mill
Robin Hood: 16 mill
Letters to Juliet: 8 mill
Shrek: $67 Million.
it seems like a total throwaway, even with the marketing (or lack there of)
here's why Shrek is going to top 100.million this weekend.
Well How to Train Your Dragon was released smartly with enough
time before Shrek to advertise the film in front of every print. It was a good set up in terms of how Dreamworks can do a fine 3D film… And Train you Dragon REMINDED people that they like Dreamworks and their animation… You're gonna be surprized at the numbers… This will do better than expected and Iron Man 2 will lose traction so much faster than the first one… All thinking it was going to pass 400 million seems very very unlikely now doesn't it… It opened up a week before it did in the states and still for such a big tentpole in three weeks has done just over 200 million and now Shrek will destroy it overseas.. As Robin Hood did last weekend overseas… Let the numbers begin
throwing in my last minute prediction
shrek 4 110 mil
macgruber 22 million , good buzz and nothing new for older audiences besides it will probably push it higher then you expect
This one is VERY tricky.
I had a look on the IMDB boards for Shrek 4 and the buzz is hardly blazing. In fact, the hype and excitement is so low that you'd think the film would be out in 2 months!
Thanks to the awful Shrek The Third i don't think anticipation will pull in $100+ numbers this weekend and the reviews are quite bad too.
I'm going to go with $82m on this one i think.
1. Shrek 4…..137.3
2. Iron Man 2…..26.2
3. MacGruber…..17.5
4. Robin Hood…..15.2
5. Letters Juliet…..6.8
6. Just Wright…..3.7
7. Date Night…..2.3
8. HTTYD…..2.3
9. Nightmare Elm…..1.7
10. Back-Up Plan…..0.7
11. Furry Vengeance…..0.6
12. Death at Funerals…..0.4
1. Shrek 4 – $85.01 million
2. Iron Man 2 – $29.71 million
3. MacGruber – $19.85 million
4. Robin Hood – $18.04 million
5. Letters to Juliet – $7.47 million
6. Just Wright – $3.53 million
7. How to Train Your Dragon – $2.68 million
8. Date Night – $2.45 million
9. A Nightmare on Elm Street – $2.26 million
10. The Back-Up Plan – $0.8 million
Shrek Forever After-$94.6
MacGruber-$15.5
I can see Shrek Forever After making about $95M, but only because it's in 3-D. Nobody really seems all that excited about it. MacGruber will, as Laremy predicted, be a surprise hit. After all, MacGruber's budget was only $10M. By next weekend, it will definitely be profitable.
Shrek 4 opens $90
To be honest, I think some critics are just bashing it because of its bad reputation. It's at 45% on RottenTomatoes with a 5.4/10 rating, while Prince of Persia's at 54% with a 4.9/10 rating.
Some critics actually went up to point that Shrek 4 is actually the best sequel of the franchise, though no one has ever dared to say that it has the magic of the original, and that is quite right.
I think MacGruber will take some of Shrek's dough, but it may be also that Shrek will steal some of MacGruber's thunder. Overall, I conclude that most college students will stick with MacGruber while the Parents with the kids will give out their cash for some 3-D experience.
It's sad, because if it wasn't for Shrek the Third, and Ice Age 3, all DreamWorks movies could have gotten a decent fresh rating.
Ice Age 3 isn't DreamWorks, and last I checked, Shark Tale, Bee Movie and Madagascar movies all had rotten ratings.
Guess I got my facts wrong.
Never tried this before – and I don't know much about things in dollars – but here's what I reckon:
1. Shrek Forever After – $75.8 million
2. Iron Man 2 – $34.8 million
3. MacGruber – $29.2 million
4. Robin Hood – $18.5 million
5. Letters to Juliet – $9.0 million
6. Just Wright – $4.1 million
7. How to Train Your Dragon – $3.0 million
8. Date Night – $2.5 million
9. A Nightmare on Elm Street – $2.3 million
10. The Back-Up Plan – $1.3 million
I think everyone is being too low on SHREK and too high on MACGRUBER.
1.) SHREK FOREVER AFTER- 127.3 mil
-Sure the third one was bad, but KIDS loved it and thats really all that matters. With 3D, IMAX, it surely will make over 100 mil. So what if parents or adults didn't get it, its audience is towards the kids. Who cares about the reviews? The third one got worse reviews and still managed 121 mil. So…i think this one will open big, but fall hard.
2.) IRON MAN 2- 24.3 mil
-Some people are calling this a flop. I wouldn't call it that. It will no doubt make 300 mil and surely will surpass the orginal barely. It could have been bigger, but the first weekend in may is hard. I think it is still a huge sucess.
3.) MACGRUBER- 16.4 mil
-I think people are being to high on this film. There hasn't been that much advertising for it and people either know it or they don't.
4.) ROBIN HOOD- 15.3 mil
-This will drop hard due to bad WOM. But to tell you the truth, I am suprised how big it opened last week.
5.) LETTERS TO JULIET- 8.1 mil
-VERY enjoyable film. Hope good WOM hits this one.
The third one managed so much in its OW because everybody loved Shrek 2. Now, considering, uh… not everybody loved or even liked Shrek 3 (most teens and adults hated it, unlike the first two), it'd be safe to assume S4 won't do as much.
1. Shrek Forever After – $100.2M I think that even if this thing makes about $95M, the studios will inflate the estimates to get it over $100M. I strongly believe with 3-D ticketing and lack of stuff for kids (who seem to like Shrek no matter how much number 3 sucked) this one will score well, not to the levels of the previous sequels, but enough to get over $100M.
2. Iron Man 2 – $26M Dropping faster than the original, should make the same amount as the original.
3. Robin Hood – $17.3M
4. MacGruber – $16.2M It seems Universal was doing well marketing, then all of a sudden, it started to drop plus no critic screenings for a movie that is supposed to have strong buzz. Quite suspicious.
5. Letters to Juliet – $8.5M And I don't feel like doing the rest of the top ten. I'm happy with this.
Laramy,
Does the Robin Hood only losing 50M comment take into consideration the overseas income against the cost of making it? Because it has been doing very well overseas from what I can tell, plus Scott movies tend to do well on DVD, so I still believe they are going to push a sequel as Ridley talked about a few weeks ago. (Which I want to happen because I believe a sequel would actually be better now that they laid out what direction they want for the character as an outlaw)
Hi Jon,
Yeah, I think a $50m loss is the best case scenario due to the following math:
Box office so far = $120m. Let's say Universal gets 60% of that (somewhat generous). That's $72m.
The film cost $200m plus another $100m in massive marketing, so it's minus $228m right now. I think it will end up around $130m domestic, $245m international, for a total of $375m. Throw in another $60m on DVD (again, generous) and you're still way way short given the studio/theater chain splits.
It's a film that would have had to hit $700m+ at the box office to work financially. Not a great move.
I would also say you have a better shot of personally making the sequel than seeing one from Universal and Ridley Scott. The demand doesn't seem to be there, but this weekend's percentage drop should tell us more about how it's being received.
Thanks for the reply. I hadn't realized that the marketing campaign was that extensive. That is a bit disappointing to me, I actually really enjoyed the movie. I know the biggest complaint I have heard was it was boring to people, but I genuinely was interested from beginning to end.
Not sure if it matters, but my local critic says Shrek 4 was bad, and he liked the other three movies. But not sure if it being bad will hurt the box office.
The MacGruber numbers will be very interesting, I can see anywhere from 10-30 million. They did have some very funny "Did you Know" ads/skits during the NBC comedy line-up on Thursday.
Nick and Dan T. are two of our better predictors… and they are $50m apart. This is going to be an interesting weekend.
Would be funny if Shrek's actual number was exactly between our predicted numbers. That'd be $111 million, give or take a couple.
Laremy, I'm standing right here. Sniff.
Shrek 4 gets $86.0mil, that's what I'm predicting. And its drop-offs are going to be even steeper than 3's.
Shrek 4 will bi bigger overseas as nobody outside of the USA knows what Saturday Night Live is.
1. Shrek Forever After – $77.1 million
2. Iron Man 2 – $28.8 million
3. Robin Hood – $15.5 million
4. MacGruber – $9.2 million
5. Letters to Juliet – $8.2 million
6. Just Wright – $4.7 million
7. How to Train Your Dragon – $2.6 million
8. Date Night – $2.5 million
9. A Nightmare on Elm Street – $2.0 million
10. The Back-Up Plan – $1.5 million
1. Shrek 4: $84.3m
2. Iron Man 2: $27.8m
3. Robin Hood: $22.3m
4. MacGruber: $12.0m
5. Letters to Juliet: $9.2m
Macgruber $11.5 million
This will be an interesting weekend for me as many college students seem interested in Macgruber, but will they be free with their money at the end of their year, and before their summer jobs kick in?
Shrek will not do huge numbers. I predict a $68.5 million opening weekend. Somewhere between $68-75 million. Shrek 3 was despised, the franchise has lost its appeal and the marketing has been pretty unfocused. Plus what made Shrek so huge was how it was appealing to both adults and children. The third one with its focus on juvenile humor has probably removed a large section of the audience.
Shrek 4 – $20M Friday, predicted $70M weekend
MacGruber bombs with $1.5M Friday.
(from Nikki)
gonna be a lackluster weekend. Though I'm glad S4 underperformed, hell its total will be below HTTYD now. Time for the franchise to die.
I think the studio's estimate of $80M for Shrek is still possible but now we can see why they lowered their predictions in advance of the movie's opening. They must have had tracking numbers that indicated it would do much less than its predecessors.
MacGruber numbers are a bit of surprise. There seemed to be a lot of interest in it after the last red band trailer and the early reviews were raves. And unlike Shrek, it isn't likely to pick up when the families come out for the weekend.
When you consider that Iron Man 2's 74% on Rotten Tomatoes is the highest among the top 5, and even that figure is I feel a tad generous since many of the reviews had more criticism than praise, it has really been a disappointing early summer.