Box-Office Oracle: May 15 – May 17, 2009
COMMENTS
We're taking Hanks at the top, but Trek will do well.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 3 Weeks in a Row
The Da Vinci code cleared $20k per theater back in 2006. Angels & Demons has 300 more theaters, but in the past three years people seemed to have soured on this franchise. So I think it can only hope for 75% of the returns as people adopt a wait and see attitude. Still, it's gonna bank worldwide.
Estimate: $53.6 million
2. Star Trek
I'm bullish on the second weekend. I can only drop it 45% – I haven't found many people who didn't dig this film. It will pass triple digits and become the highest grossing Trek of all time this weekend.
Estimate: $41.4 million
It's still $84m short of X-Men for 3rd place in the series. Will it get there?
Estimate: $11.3 million
These guys have been helped out by the fact that no one bothered to release any genre competition against them. But at only $31m total grosses I don't think they're breaking out the champagne just yet.
Estimate: $7.3 million
5. Obsessed
As I add all these numbers up it seems as though this will be the worst box-office weekend of the year. By a large amount. Hmmm, perhaps I should've bumped Angels & Demons to $65m.
Estimate: $3.9 million
6. The Soloist
I heard someone last weekend commented on my name and thought it may be some sort of alias. The comment was deleted since it didn't follow the posting rules, but I can tell you Laremy is my real name, folks. If I were going to make up a name it would be way cooler than the one I've got. I'd go with something like "StarScream Bramhamowitz" – now THAT'S a nom de plume.
Estimate: $2.8 million
7. 17 Again
The sad truth is none of us will ever be 17 Again. Sorry guys, when a film is cranking less than $3m it's hard to stay interested.
Estimate: $2.6 million
8. Next Day Air
Next week looks crazy compelling though. Terminator vs. Night at the Museum. That's a match-up. Terminator 3 opened at $44m as a summer movie back in 2003. Night at the Museum cleared $42m over a long Christmas weekend back in 2006. So who wins? Bale or Stiller? It's just nice to have a horse race I suppose.
Estimate: $1.9 million
9. Earth
Speaking of horse races, I've got a bonus prediction for you. I don't like the favorite Rachel Alexandra in The Preakness. I'm going with Pioneer of the Nile, and maybe a little long-shot action with Big Drama.
Estimate: $1.6 million
Now it's your turn. Am I too high/low on Angels & Demons? Am I overrating Star Trek's second weekend? Do you have early and helpful thoughts on Terminator Salvation vs Night at the Museum 2: Battle of the Smithsonian? Get your comment on!
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Laremy,
I do not think you are over rating Star Trek. I have talked with dozens of friends, business associates etc. and they all tell me that they loved it and most want to see it again this weekend, as do I.
Angels & Demons is a tough one to estimate, as I heard the tracking on the film is so-so.
Keep up the good work!
Angles & Demons – 56.7
Star Trek – 44.9
How do people sour on a franchise after one movie? Don't you need at least two movies to draw proper judgment?
Angels and Demons $55.4 million I think everything else is on track. On the world wide side, A&D will probably be the best opening of the year.
Angels and Demons feels like State of Play or The International, only this thing has got bigger names and better advertising. It feels like it should go that way box office wise as well.
I dunno Eric, I'm pretty sure everyone is positive that the first film sucked.
MY PREDICTIONS
1. ANGELS & DEMONS – $56.4 million
Like I said, this year's Narnia. I really don't think a lot of people want to see this, and if they do, then they probably won't excitedly rush out. All ticket buyers are probably purchasing their tickets with a side of skepticism.
2. STAR TREK – $43.2 million
The word is out – Star Trek is spectacular and I, along with a massive group of other American moviegoers, will be checking it out this weekend (in my case, it'll be my second time). Should hold solid, as it's honestly the only truly grand quality spectacle out there right now.
3. WOLVERINE – $10.5 million
See ya, Wolverine. You got here May 1 and you're out of here by the end of Memorial Day. And completely forgotten by everyone by the end of the summer. You could've been better.. wayyyy better. *You SHOULD'VE been better.
Like I said, I'll be seeing the awesome STAR TREK sometime again this weekend.
As for next weekend…
It's a close one, Laremy. In the past, the kid movie has always beat the older movie. But in this case, I'm placing my bets on TERMINATOR: SALVATION to take the lead by just a few mill more than Ben Stiller. Why? Because it's just as big as any other summer movie (Star Trek, Wolverine – both made past $75mill opening weekend), and I think it has the gull to breakthrough the $90 million mark. Night at the Museum 2 might only stay in the $80 mill range. So therefore…
EARLY PREDICTIONS
1. TERMINATOR: SALVATION – $95.2 million
2. NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM 2: BATTLE OF THE SMITHSONIAN – $89.5 million
Who knew, right? NATM appeals to everyone and people want to go out and get to the movies these days, and you've got two hugely entertaining, yet very different movies right there to check out. I'll be checking out TERMINATOR: SALVATION first, but honestly… I, and tons and tons and tons of American families, will also be checking out NATM2 after the barbecue on Memorial Day Monday. What a wonderful movie weekend.
Have a blessed weekend, everyone! :]
NATM looks awful and I'm sure T4 will beat it, especially since it's PG13.
subtract 10 million from Angels & Demons and i think you're right.
Terminator Salvation just seems to have a buzz to it, and looks like a movie you do not have to even see the other three movies to know what's up. And Bale did just star in the second highest grossing movie of all time.
1. Angels & Demons- $57.8 million
2. Star Trek- $43.2 million
3. X-Men Origins: Wolverine- $10.7 million
4. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past- $4.9 million
5. Obsessed- $3.4 million
6. 17 Again- $2.5 million
7. The Soloist- $2.5 million
8. Monsters Vs. Aliens- $2.0 million
9. Next Day Air- $1.9 million
10. Earth- $1.7 million
I'm surprised that Ghosts of Girlfriends Past hasn't been stealing more of 17 Again's audience.
Angels and Demons -60.0
Star Trek-34.0
If you look at any past Star Wars or Trek they always fall pretty hard their second wait.
Next week it will be hard to say what will do better, since Terminator is on Thursday. I think Night will have a better 4-day weekend.
Terminator-80.0
Night at Museum- 70.0
By the way its Battle of the Smithsonian. Not Escape From. I think someone is thinking of Madagascar. Lol.
Yeah I'm thinking high 40's for Angels and Demons will be the ceiling here; and I don't think it'll hold up as well in the upcoming weeks, just because unlike the first film, which was kinda love-it-or-hate-it, this one will largely be met with indifference.
Um I also don't think that "Night at the Museum" will do all that well, just because it looks fairly awful (like really bad- pretty much just a retread of the first film), but second because these sequels to live action family films more often then not fail if not disappoint. See: Prince Caspian, Pink Panther 2, Cheaper by the Dozen 2 (didn't fail, but made about $60 million less than the first movie). Yeah those films are in a different league than "Night" but that doesn't mean that this film won't disappoint either. Remember, even "Bedtime Stories", which was positioned to be just like "Night", release date and all, disappointed considering the star and the appeal of the genre. Let's say $60 million for the 4-day but it'll barely break $150 million by the end of it's run. Still a success but not a great one.
Laremy,
I've been reading your BO articles for months and months now, they're a neat take on the derby every week. Just please don't take this comment the wrong way.
Wanted to mention two mistakes you made:
1.) Angels & Demons doesn't open at 300 more theatres than The Da Vinci Code. Da Vinci started with 3,735 theatres while A&D starts this weekend with 3,527.
2.) I don't know where you got $84 mil from but going into its third weekend, Wolverine is only $23 mil behind the first X-Men (unadjusted domestic), $75 mil if adjusted, and $38 mil worldwide.
Having said all that, A&D is definitely hard to predict this weekend because even though it's had plenty of production/controversy publicity, I don't believe its on the level of buzz going in as DV. Still, Angels & Demons is a huge book and people know the name, so to speak, so I'm guessing $57.5 mil, around the ballpark of Bartowski.
For Wolverine, it won't have a problem becoming the third highest grossing X-Men movie. Adjusted, however, is a different story.
Laremy probably hit the numbers right.
I'm guessing A&D around $47-65 M
As for Star Trek, I bet anyone it won't bleed by more than 50%, probably at $40M+
As for Wolvie, movie's not that bad, but it wasn't as good as X2. Expecting a Watchmen type-bleed but not too much for this has a higher mainstream audience.
Next Week? Bale will probably shock us again. Highest May opening anyone?
Oh, and NATM2 won't be far behind.. It has Amy Adams in it anyway.
T4 – 89M
NATM – 79M
No, Star Trek won't probably be affected next week, But Wolverine will.
1.) Angels & Demons – $ 65 million
I still got a feeling that Angels and Demons will cross $60mil. Though initially i was expecting something close to $75 million, but then the hype is lacking this time.
2.) Star Trek – $ 42.5 million
This one will surely get in the crowds this weekend as well. $42.5 mill is the lowest it would make. I wont be surprised if it manages $45mill+
3.) X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $9.0 million
Yes… Another 67% drop. This will fall way short of all the previous X-Men films as far as collections in North America are concerned. Not that its a bad movie. Its just released at a bad time.
@Eli I was looking Thursday morning, perhaps they hadn't updated numbers? I was talking worldwide cume, as I generally do. Theater counts weren't official yet either, so I was working with estimates.
Right now I see it's $257m to $296m, so you're right, it should pass it (non adjusted).
Rock on,
Laremy
@Topy: Er, actually, $89 million would only be the 11th highest May opening, behind The Matrix Reloaded with $91.7 million. The highest is Spiderman 3, which grossed $151.1 million in its opening weekend, which is a number that Terminator Salvation won't even sniff (probably).
@Bustray: Really? Oh man, is messed up. Well let's call it as the highest opening for 2009 so far.
You're right, Even if it has Bale in it, judging from the mess they left back in 2003, it'll probably hit something between 60-110M. And there's no way Stiller could beat bale this week, although they'll do pretty good because of the different demographic.