Box-Office Oracle: May 14 – May 16, 2010
Iron Man 2 in a landslide, crushing poor hapless Robin Hood.
It's looking like another easy victory. Iron Man 2 is probably more frontloaded than I'm projecting, but I think early word of mouth is going to hit Robin Hood hard. Brad and I just saw it, live in sunny Cannes, and it wasn't a happy fun time. It was the opposite of that actually. Let's break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 10 Weeks In A Row
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| It looks as though casual movie-goers are enjoying it more than the critical masses. Iron Man 2 sits at $341m worldwide, on a $200m production budget combined with what had to be a $100m marketing outlay. So it still needs to do some work. The film stands $240m from surpassing the original, anyone have a take on how much it earns in worldwide cume at this point? Going back to the critical slant on this film, I really think folks overrated the first one, and then had higher expectations this time around due to the Comic-Con footage. True, the first one had Comic-Con buzz too, but it was still the first in the series, and as such an unknown quantity. But no number from $50+ here would surprise me. Prediction: $66.5 million |
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Kind of a debacle. It's not really about Robin Hood, and it's probably Ridley Scott's worst film, though I haven't seen A Good Year. Sad, because I appreciate everyone involved with the production. Just a rare miss, and a little over $10k per theater feels about right.
Prediction: $35.7 million
Decent counter-programming, but only 2,800 theaters to compete with. Also, I heard it's not very good, so it probably won't cross over with audiences.
Prediction: $15.4 million
They are clearly targeting theaters, hoping to pull some big city dollars in. With the NBA playoffs largely on hiatus, perhaps a few people will get their fix this way.
Prediction: $11.7 million
I still maintain it needs to make another $25m to feel good… and I have no idea where that money is going to magically appear from.
Prediction: $4.2 million
The seven weeks in a row in the top five streak probably ends this weekend. Still, hell of a run.
Prediction: $3.73 million
If Summit was a publicly traded company I imagine stockholders would be calling for a congressional investigation into this "product." So no, it didn't go well.
Prediction: $3.32 million
Did you notice the five films within a million dollars of each other? Dartboard city.
Prediction: $3.3 million
I enjoyed Tina Fey back onSNL. They should let her write that show in her free time, whenever she's done with writing 30 Rock for the week.
Prediction: $3.27 million
Babies! Plenty of people asked me about the film, but nobody went. You'll get 'em next time, Focus Features.
Prediction: $1.19 million
How say you? Want to shoot for a more sensible $55m call on Iron Man 2? Have advice for me on where to eat in Cannes? Think Letters to Juliet will shine? Weigh in now, before my jet lag gets any worse!
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Iron Man will win and Robin Hood will be another fail for Universal
Iron Man 2 – 60.7
Robin Hood – 32.8
Letters to Juliet – 15.1
Just Wright – 7.3
HTTYD – 4.0
1. IRON MAN 2 – $65.2 million
2. ROBIN HOOD – $33.7 million
3. LETTERS TO JULIET – $21.2 million
4. JUST WRIGHT – $11.5 million
5. HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON -$3.8 million
I kinda wanna see Iron Man 2 this weekend again. We'll see what happens.
By the way, LTJ will be that high because honestly… Girls eat that crap up. Sure they can pass on frothy schtick like Back-Up Plan, or Ugly Truth, but when it comes to stories about forever after, fantastical, old-fashioned kind of love (Notebook, Twilight, etc.)… it's on like white on rice. I'm already hearing too much from girls who are dying to see it. Haha. Blech.
Have a really great weekend everyone! :)
Agree with your chart, it's just not right for me. Iron Man 2 was complete decline from the first. It simply wasn't good, most of my friends and other audience were let down by this movie. It even loses massive schedule in premium theaters just in the second weeks of it's release, unlike Spider-Man 3, I don't think it will have long legs in future weeks… So disappointed with this movie.
I know I've said it so many times but Robin Hood wasn't that bad at all. It may not that great but it was way deserved more than D rating..
Just watch it, it was good.
Regards from Indonesia
Iron Man 2 – 70.2 Million
Robin Hood – 28.7 Million
I think Iron Man 2 will probably have a steep drop this weekend, although this is the weekend I'm hoping to finally make it to the theaters to see it.
One thing I thought might have undercut it's legs on opening weekend in the U.S. (and something I haven't really seen people talking about online) was the early bow overseas. One of the things that drives me to see a huge flick opening weekend is the desire to have my own opinion of the movie formed before I see it talked to death on the internet. By the second weekend and beyond, the 'need' to catch the film as soon as possible wears off, and it's no longer the next big thing on the horizon… it's old news.
With Iron Man 2, even though we're only on the 7th day of release here in the States, it seems like it's been out for ages. With the internet, I've been hearing people chime in on what they thought about it for 2 weeks now. It was already an old topic online by last Friday. I can't help but think that it drained away excitement to line up for it, and certainly kept midnight showings from being as big as they could be. "Be the first to see it… except for, you know, every other country in the world…!"
I know most other countries are used to getting new releases after they've been showing elsewhere already, but it's a new experience for American movie-goers, at least with a film of this magnitude, and I can't help but think that it undercut the box office here thanks to the world-wide watercooler of the internet. Once you've missed the big opening rush and realized that your life is largely as fulfilling as it always was,, it's not that long of a trip to thinking "Eh… I'll catch it on video in a few months…"
I'm going to post my top 10 predictions later tonight, but I'm going to say right off, Laremy, that dinging IM2 less than 50% is a tad too bullish. Even the first one drop -48%, and TDK, with all its amazing hype, still dropped -52.5%.
Im calling $70 million for Iron Man 2
The release of Letters To Juliet on this particular weekend seems unnecessarily risky. I'm starting to buy into the idea that if it's from Summit Entertainment it will have problems.
1.) Iron Man 2 – $ 58.5 million
2.) Robin Hood – $ 42 million
3.) Letters to Juliet – $ 15 million
4.) Just Wright – $ 9 million
1. Iron Man 2- $59.3 million
2. Robin Hood- $41.4 million
3. Letters to Juliet- $18.6 million
4. Just Wright- $10.2 million
5. How To Train Your Dragon- $6.1 million
Well I may just have to redo my summer prediction from the summer movie predictions thread.
I feel like Robin Hood is gonna open very low. I originally predicted Robin Hood to open at $28 million (with a total of $70 million overall this summer) but I now feel that that number is too high.
Im gonna say an opening of 22.4 million with a total gross of $55 million.
1. Iron Man 2- $62.1 million
2. Robin Hood- $22.4 million
3. Letters to Juliet- $14.6 million
4. Just Wright- $6.9 million
5. How To Train Your Dragon- $6.1 million
6. DAte Night – $4.9 mllion
Next weekend:
1.Iron Man 2-$70.2 (-58%)
2.Robin Hood-$29 (N/A)
3.Letters to Juliet-$10.1 (N/A)
4.How to Train Your Dragon-$7 (+6%)
5.A Nightmare on Elm Street-$5.6 (-38%)
6.Just Wright-$5 (N/A)
7.Date Night-$4.5 (-17%)
8.The Back-Up Plan-$3 (-40%)
9.Furry Vengeance-$2 (-56%)
10.Clash of the Titans-$1.3 (-48%)
P.S. Brad (yes, Brad), where is the MPAA ratings update for this week? Are they on vacation or what?
1. Iron Man 2
2. Robin Hood
3. Letters To Juliet
4. Dragon
5. Elm Street
6. Date Night
7.Furry Vengeance
8. Just Wright
9. Clash Of The Titans
10. Babies
1. Iron Man 2 – $63 M
2. Robin Hood – $26 M
3. Letters to Juliet – $21 M
4. Just Wright – $11 M
5. How to Train Your Dragon – $4 M
The rest of the Top 10 is too pathetic to report here.
Early predict for next week – Shrek begins his final chapter (?)* at $90 million, and MacGruber does sleeper numbers in the $15 – $20 million range and holds well.
I hope Iron Man 2 holds well. I think it will…but we will see. I have a new theory when in doubt, think low.
1.) IRON MAN- 61.7 mil
2.) ROBIN HOOD- 27.8 mil
3.) LETTERS TO JULIET- 14.7 mil
4.) JUST WRIGHT- 12.3 mil
5.) HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON- 5.6 mil
My guesses:
Iron Man 2 – 48.4
Robin Hood – 29.0
Letters to Juliet – 11.5
Just Wright – 10.2
How to Train Your Dragon – 4.1
Juliet might not break 10 mil. Summit doesn't seem to know how to open a picture without vampires.
I hope Iron Man 2 holds well. I think it will…but we will see. I have a new theory when in doubt, think low.
1.) IRON MAN- 61.7 mil
-I think that there are still a lot of people out there who still need to see this that didnt get to it the first week. Mothers Day was in the way and its been doing very well on weekdays.
2.) ROBIN HOOD- 27.8 mil
-I never thought this was going to do what people were saying. Its not a blockbuster for people. A period film is not as big. With a long running time, don't expect very high.
3.) LETTERS TO JULIET- 14.7 mil
-I actually think this will do okay due to decent reviews.
4.) JUST WRIGHT- 12.3 mil
-I am seeing Back Up Plan numbers…weird that two rom. comedy's came out this weekend.
5.) HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON- 5.6 mil
-I think this will beat out NOES for 5th spot
Just to be a contrarian,
I am gonna go.
Robin Hood 50.1
Iron Man 50
Letters to Juliet 14
Just Wright 10
HTTYD 4.5
Maybe it's just because I'm a huge Scott/Crowe fan, but I don't see Robin Hood doing less than $40 mil. this weekend. It seems like everyone I know loves Gladiator (like favorite movie ever type love) and the ads have been up all over the place.
I'm in a bit of a rush tonight but here we go:
1. Iron Man 2, $57.6 million. That's a 55% drop; 60% seemed too high. The more I think about this movie the less I think of it; I'm starting to think that it was really just an awful film, but with an engaging lead performance and cool action. Side note: the $5 million overestimate is the biggest I can remember.
2. Robin Hood, $34 million. I feel like I'm at the upper end of the possible range here, so we'll see what happens. I'm really sad to see this faring so poorly with the critics, because this likely means that the sword and sandal epic is dead once and for all. Fifty years ago films like this were the norm…people ate them up and they were events; people would gladly sit though a three-plus hour film because it was just that: an EVENT. Now it's rare to see a movie go even 2.5 hours (like this one) and three hours (which was perfectly accepted even ten years ago with The Lord of the Rings) is a definite no-go. Now movies are really just distractions for 1.5 or maybe 2 hours. Sure every now and then you'll get an epic like The Dark Knight or Avatar or even Inglourious Basterds that is like that, but those are very, very rare now. How much of a bearing all this has on this film, who knows? I just thought I'd comment on how I think it's sad that those days are gone, and the fact that this film is going to bomb is a perfect example of that fact. I'll be seeing it this weekend with somewhat lowered expectations. It's probably not going to help though that I'd been planning to have a Ridley Scott period epic double feature prior to seeing this (Kingdom of Heaven Director's Cut and Gladiator) which I'm going to go ahead with. Having those two fresh in my mind probably won't improve my impression of this film given the reviews I've read.
3. Letters to Juliet, $26 million. If Summit can't get this to make money (it seems completely foolproof given the premise) I think we'll just have to declare them a cursed studio outside of Twilight.
4. Just Wright, $10.8 million. Like Our Family Wedding, not enough theatres or marketing to do anything.
5. A Nightmare on Elm Street, $4.5 million.
6. How to Train Your Dragon, $4.4 million.
7. Date Night, $3.8 million.
8. Furry Vengeance, $3.1 million.
9. The Backup Plan, $3 million.
10. Babies, $1.5 million.
Right, I'm off to watch Kingdom of Heaven. Another of those event films I mentioned above; the animosity toward those is why the spectacular director's cut only played in like one theatre in L.A. and the masses got the butchered theatrical version.
1. Iron Man 2–$57.8mil. I'm dinging this -55%. It's not going to fall -60%, as it's been rather well-received (*cough* unlike Transformers 2), and it was a whole lot of fun to watch. Everyone I went with liked it, anyhow. At the same time, there's no way it's falling any less than TDK's -52.5%.
2. Robin Hood–$34.6mil. It's not going to break $40mil. Who knows, it might not even manage $30mil. But I think it'll do a fair amount of business, despite its bad reviews, sort of like Angels & Demons last year, which was also a PG-13 movie aimed at a slightly older crowd.
3. Letters to Juliet–$13.4mil. It's not going to be a $20mil opener like it originally could have been. It's yet another mediocre romantic comedy in a line of mediocrities this year; the only ones that have done good were ones that had an appealing premise to counteract the badness of the film ("Valentine's Day", "Dear John"). God, what's WRONG with romantic comedies this year?
4. Just Wright–$5.7mil. $10-12mil? Are you guys crazy? This movie have almost zero audience recognition. It looks like it'll open similar to "Our Family Wedding," only a bit worse.
5. How to Train Your Dragon–$4.7mil. It'll hold well, maybe about -30%. It'd hold even better, except Mother's Day gave it a slight boost last weekend.
6. A Nightmare on Elm Street (2010)–$4.6mil. Its daily numbers, in comparison to Friday the 13th, suggest that it'll actually manage to hold at least half its business this weekend. That's more than many of the current horror movies can say for themselves.
7. Date Night–$3.8mil. Great hold, but once again held back slightly by its Mother's Day boost that'll put this Sunday-to-Sunday drop at a disadvantage.
8. The Back-Up Plan–$2.7mil. Now this movie REALLY got a boost on Mother's Day, so it'll be lucky to hold half its business this weekend.
9. Furry Vengeance–$2.4mil. This one also got a significant Mother's Day boost. It'll also lose half its business. I was originally going with -60% until the theater count was released, saying that it was only dropping about 400 theaters. Huh. Well, next weekend it's going to lose most of those when this weekend's PTA comes in under $1000.
10. Clash of the Titans (2010)–$1.3mil. -50%. Going up against Robin Hood won't be as bad for it as going up against Iron Man 2, but it's losing lots of theaters.
Theaters are locked into showing new movies for two weeks, but surprisingly, third week drops in the number of theaters are always modest, even for bombs.
Iron Man 2 70.3m
Robin Hood 32.6m
Letters to Juilet 14.2m
Just Wright 9.6m
Nightmare on Elm Street 4m
How to Train Your Dragon 3.8m
Date Night 3.3m
Furry Vengence 3.2m
The Back Up Plan 3.2m
Babies 1.2m
1. Iron Man 2 – $61.0 million
2. Robin Hood – $37.75 million
3. Letters to Juliet – $16.38 million
4. Just Wright – $7.98 million
5. How to Train Your Dragon – $6.03 million
6. A Nightmare on Elm Street – $4.12 million
7. Date Night – $3.96 million
8. Furry Vengeance – $3.75 million
9. The Back-Up Plan – $2.83 million
10. Babies – $1.43 million
1. Iron Man 2…..63.7
2. Robin Hood…..39.2
3. Letters a Juliet….29.1
4. Just Wright………..9.7
5. HTTYD………………..3.9
6. Date Night…………3.4
7. Nightmare on Elm……3.2
8. Furry Vengeance……2.9
9. Back-Up Plan………..2.6
10. Babies………………1.8
11. Clash of Titans……..0.8
12. Death at a Funeral….0.7
Uh….. Where did clash of the titans go?
Deadline reporting that IM2 won the weekend with an estimated $53M. Kind of foolish how people claimed that it would make $70M and even $80M. I told y'all it wouldn't make more than $60M… It just wouldn't make no sense. Anyhow, I think that Marvel is probably a tad disappointed with IM2.
Weekend extrapolation based on Friday's boxoffice take, Friday's take X 3 to include Saturday and Sunday:
Iron Man 2: 15M x3: $45M
Robin Hood: 13M x3: $39M
Letters to Juliet: 5M x3: $15M
Just Wright: 2.8M x3: $8.4M
Actual boxoffice gross could be a little more or less.